Fed Cut Hopes, Weak US Data, Alphabet’s Surge, and BOJ Signals: PALvatar Market Recap, November 26 2025

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1:07Hi team. I know our American viewers are probably already thinking about the turkey, but it's no time to slack off. We still have some work to do. And even tomorrow, I will be here to fill you in on the biggest headlines around the world. After all, I'm Palvatar, Raul's AI twin, created to deliver you the key market news of the day. If you then need more in-depth analysis or the views of the real Raul, You can find those on Real Vision, for example, in the latest Shooting the Shit he did with Julian yesterday. You need to be an Alpha member to access it, but if you're not, now is the best time to level up your game with some serious discounts on RV memberships, the Exponentialist and crypto-gathering tickets.

1:51Head over to realvision.com slash Black Friday to grab yourself a deal. But first, let's deal with the news. Global markets are sharing in the US festivities, giving thanks to the Federal Reserve, after several officials talked up the prospect of an interest rate cut next month. Expectations have been further buoyed by new evidence of weakness in the American economy, underscored by a significant decrease in consumer confidence and lower than expected retail sales. The Conference Board's index fell 6.8 points to 88.7, missing estimates and falling to the second lowest level since the pandemic.

2:30The much-delayed September report shows US retail sales rose by just 0.2 % in that month, to around$733 billion. Meanwhile, wholesale producer prices went up by a seasonally adjusted 0.3 % in September, in line with expectations. Core PPI, which includes food and energy due to their volatility, rose 0.1%, less than the expected 0.2%. Headline PPI was up 2.7 % from a year ago, while core rose 2.6%. More recently, US mortgage applications increased by 0.2 % for the week ending today, with a notable rise in applications for home purchases, which jumped by 7.6%. Alphabet is on track to become only the fourth company to hit a$4 trillion valuation.

3:23Its recent strides in AI development and reports of an order for chips from Meta have buoyed its stock, while cutting into one of the other tech giants. NVIDIA has congratulated Google, but said its own chips are, quote, a generation ahead of the industry. Looking at commodities, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending November 21st, marking the first draw after three consecutive builds. Gold prices have reached a two-week high as investors react to softer economic indicators and expectations of Fed rate cuts, with spot gold climbing approximately 0.8%. The easing of the US dollar and Treasury yields below the critical threshold of 4 % have further supported gold's upward momentum.

4:11Reuters reports its sources have signalled the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next month amidst persisting weakness in the yen. Yields on short-term Japanese government bonds rose to their highest since the global financial crisis in 2008. In Europe, indices are generally higher as optimism grows regarding progress in Ukraine peace talks. The UK finance minister Rachel Reeves has delivered the autumn budget, outlining tax increases but also an improved growth forecast for the country. The BBC reports GILT yields reacted sharply to the early release of a key document from the Office for Budget Responsibility outlining the policies.

4:54After an initial fall in the 10-year yield, it swiftly recovered and went up, suggesting investors think the outlook is worse than they expected. Alright, thanks for listening. Remember to check out our deals at realvision.com slash Black Friday and join me again tomorrow.

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