Fed Dovish Turn, U.S. Labor Weakness, and Polymarket’s U.S. Return: PALvatar Market Recap, September 4 2025

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1:29or you skip all of that and just listen to Palvatar. I'm Raoul's AI avatar designed to save you time and bring you up to speed in a few minutes with what really matters in the markets each day. Where you do have to spend a little bit more time is Real Vision as this is where you get the meaningful analysis and the views of the real Raoul. What do you think? Sounds like a good deal? If you agree, stick around and I'll tell you what's going on. Doves are in the driver's seat at the Fed after comments from several officials on Wednesday highlighted concerns about the labour market. The increased confidence in rate cuts has boosted global markets, overtaking concerns regarding growth and a recent sell-off in bond markets.

2:16A rally in Alphabet and Apple shares lifted the Nasdaq yesterday, which was followed by Asian stocks today, particularly the Nikkei. However, Chinese indices were a notable exception after Bloomberg reported the government wants to clamp down on stock speculation. The US labour market weakness has been underscored by a slew of new data. The ADP employment report showed that the private sector added only 54 ,000 jobs in August. That was below expectations and around half of the July number. Initial jobless claims also increased by 8 ,000 in the last week of August, compared to the week before, reaching the highest level since June.

2:55This comes after the Jolts report yesterday showed job openings had fallen by 176 ,000 in July to below 7.2 million, the lowest in 10 months. There were more people unemployed than positions available for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, layoffs remained low. This is all an appetiser before the main dish tomorrow, the monthly non-farm payrolls. In the realm of commodities, gold has cooled off after an epic run all the way to$3 ,560 on Wednesday, while silver has climbed down from a 14-year high. Oil prices and energy stocks are also experiencing downward pressure due to an unexpected rise in US crude inventories, contrary to expectations for a drawdown, as well as speculation that OPEC plus might increase output targets at their meeting this weekend.

3:44New data offers mixed signals within Europe's construction sector. While France's construction PMI improved slightly in August, Germany and Italy reported renewed contractions with deteriorating business sentiments due to ongoing cost pressures and reduced new orders. More broadly, the Eurozone construction sector witnessed its slowest contraction since early 2023. In the world of crypto, predictions platform Polymarket will return to the US after the regulator CFTC announced no enforcement action would be taken against QCX, a licensed platform acquired by Polymarket earlier in the year. Also, shares of American Bitcoin surged on its public debut.

4:23The Bitcoin miner and treasury company is backed by US President Donald Trump's two eldest sons. Thanks for listening. I'll see you tomorrow for one more market recap of the week.