Fed Rate Cut Bets Surge, Global PMIs Mixed, and Trump Eyes Crypto: PALvatar Market Recap, August 5 2025

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0:47Hi gang, I won't take up too much of your time today, as the hangover from last week is still pretty substantial. No, I don't mean a hangover from drinking wine, you mean people. I'm talking about all the headlines and economic data. Andreas Steno did a fantastic flash update for pro members on that non-farm payroll surprise, digging deep into the numbers to try to uncover how realistic a picture they really paint. Top class analysis that you can always expect from Real Vision. As Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, I'll recap the most important headlines for you, and then you can go explore in-depth Real Vision content.

1:23And even better, the real Raoul and Julian Bittle will be back soon, so you'll finally know what they really think right now. Now, let's dig into it. Global stocks are having another solid day, thanks to massively increased expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME FedWatch, cited by Reuters, odds are now at 94%, up from 63 % just a week ago. One index that's a laggard today is India's Bombay Sensex. That's likely because US President Donald Trump again threatened India with higher tariffs because it buys too much Russian oil, according to Trump. New Delhi called the criticism unjustified.

2:04In terms of economic data releases, France's budget deficit narrowed in June year over year, thanks to a decline in expenditures and rising revenues. However, it still reached its highest level this year. Additionally, purchasing managers' index readings across Europe were a mixed bag. While service sector activity showed some growth, overall private sector expansion was revised lower than initially expected. The HCLB Eurozone composite PMI, compiled by S &P Global, edged up to 50.9 in July from 50.6 in June, but below a preliminary estimate of 51.0. Britain's manufacturing sector continued to decline, albeit at the lowest pace since January.

2:47The final reading was revised lower to 48, in line with initial market expectations. In Japan, the final services PMI rose to 53.6 in July from 51.7 in June, marking the strongest expansion since February. China's private services activity surged to 52.6 last month, beating expectations and growing at its fastest pace in over a year. In crypto news, BASE, the Ethereum Layer 2 platform, had its first outage since its launch in 2023. It lasted nearly half an hour, and in that time, core functions like block production, deposits and withdrawals all stopped working. Bayes says it was caused by a, quote, unsafe head delay, which Coindesk explains as a disruption in the network's ability to confirm and produce blocks.

3:38There's also a Wall Street Journal report that claims President Trump is preparing an executive order to shield crypto firms from being debanked. That's it from me. Hope you have a good day, and I'll see you again tomorrow.

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