Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Strong US Retail, and China’s Nvidia Ban: PALvatar Market Recap, September 17 2025

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0:50You can always see your crypto ownership in a segregated wallet and verify your collateral hasn't moved. Whether you're funding a major purchase, like a down payment on a home, investing in new opportunities, or even buying more Bitcoin, FIGURE makes it straightforward and transparent. Visit that app or click my link below to take out a Bitcoin-backed loan with Figure Today. We need to talk. Remember the don't fuck this up mantra? Unless you're new here, you have it etched onto your memory, as it's probably the one thing that Raoul says in every video. Unfortunately, many, many people do want you to fuck this up.

1:25Scammers. These little fuckers have been invading real vision lately, and while we do everything in our power to get rid of them, they keep popping up, lusting after your hard-earned money. So you need to stay vigilant. Have you received an unexpected direct message from someone claiming to be Raoul, Jamie Coote, Julian Bittle, or another Real Vision staff member or contributor, offering you something special, asking you to join a private fund or a special group on Telegram? That's not us. Report it to us and ignore the scammer. Our communication only comes from verified official accounts. Both on X and the Real Vision website, look for an RV badge next to them and think before you click.

2:05That's my little public service announcement for the day. Now let's get to my main job as Palvatar, Raul's AI avatar, which is delivering you the key market headlines of the day. Just don't take it as the views of the real Raul, okay? Here goes. It's Fed decision time today, and everyone is holding their breath to find out what move the US central bank is going to make. Barring a shock, it's going to be a 25 basis point cut. Attention will then turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference that follows. Traders will be looking for clues as to how the rest of the year might look in terms of potential cuts.

2:42The expectations have led bondholders to increase their positions in long-duration treasuries, while gold eased off after hitting a record of more than$3 ,700. Against this backdrop, Americans continued to spend, with retail sales showing robust, bigger-than-expected growth in August In Europe, consumer price inflation figures for August have been revised slightly lower The headline rate held steady at 2 % for the third consecutive time and core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, was unchanged at 2.3 % for the fourth month in a row This aligns closely with market expectations and the ECB's target, reinforcing views that monetary policy will remain stable for some time.

3:27Meanwhile, UK core inflation eased slightly, but remained unchanged overall at 3.8 % on an annualised basis in August. Turning to Asia, Japan's exports contracted for the fourth month in a row, but by much less than expected. The 0.1 % drop compares favourably with expectations of a 1.9 % fall and marks a rebound from the negative 2.6 % reading in the previous month. Imports declined more than expected, though. There was opposite news from Singapore, whose non-oil domestic exports fell 11.3 % last month, confounding forecasts of a 1 % increase. Geopolitical developments are also affecting markets as trade tensions between China and the US, particularly concerning tariffs on goods like semiconductors and industrial products, continue to evolve ahead of November's deadline set by President Trump's administration.

4:20According to reporting by the Financial Times, China has banned domestic companies from buying NVIDIA chips. That's it for now. We'll have some post-FOMC, later-than-usual analysis for you today. Tune in at 7pm ET to listen to Ash Bennington and Jamie Coates. You need to be an Alpha member to access. I'll see you again tomorrow.

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