Fed Rate Cut Odds, Russia-Ukraine Talks, and Bitcoin Volatility: PALvatar Market Recap, November 24 2025

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1:08Welcome back to a new week of market recaps with Palvatar, an AI alter ego of Raoul Pal. I hope you're feeling refreshed after the weekend. We've got a busy couple of days ahead of the Thanksgiving weekend, so I'll cut through the noise to provide the information that really matters. After all, who has the time to sift through the news? Yes, you can use AI to help, but I guarantee you listening to Raoul delivering it is just more fun, or at least as close to the real Raoul as it gets. You should be fairly adept at spotting the difference between us and knowing his views on the market after hearing from him at length on multiple occasions last week.

1:45But there's more to come. Today, he's hosting his fireside chat with David Matting for Exponentialist members at 11am Eastern Time, answering their questions, and tomorrow he's back with Julian Bittle for the beloved Shooting the Shit. Plus, Jamie Coutts has another AMA open to all members today at 4.30pm ET. Our experts are here to guide you through the choppy waters. But my turn first. Nothing more soothing for market jitters than a little bit of dovish talk from the Federal Reserve, right? Markets around the world have taken a deep breath thanks to renewed optimism for a Fed rate cut in December.

2:24Odds on it have shot up back to 74 % on the back of dovish remarks from influential New York Fed President John Williams. The bets have been on a rollercoaster ride from a virtual lock-in a month ago, down to just 40 % last week and back to three quarters now. Sentiment has also been bolstered by signs of progress on a potential peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US and Ukraine have been in talks in Geneva about refining the American proposal. Oil prices dropped again on the news as traders prepared for potentially more supply from Russia. Listen to Andreas and Mikkel on Macro Mondays today for a more in-depth geopolitical analysis.

3:04The September print for producer prices will finally be released tomorrow, following a delay caused by the government shutdown. US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant estimated its permanent cost at$11 billion, but reiterated no risk of a recession. Looking at the Asia-Pacific region, the People's Bank of China has maintained its benchmark interest rate as expected, while injecting liquidity through reverse repurchase agreements to support the economy. Markets in Japan are closed for a holiday, but the Hang Seng posted solid gains ahead of Alibaba's earnings tomorrow. Australia will release its first monthly inflation report on Wednesday, shifting from quarterly updates to align with other advanced economies.

3:46In Europe, the IFO Business Climate Index for Germany fell to 88.1 this month from October's reading of 88.4, missing market expectations of a rise to 88.5. The decline reflects increased pessimism among firms regarding future conditions, although assessments of the current situation improved slightly. Crypto prices had a much-needed bounce over the weekend, although the market remains on edge. Bitcoin closed at around$87 ,500 on Sunday, recovering from its Friday plunge to below$81 ,000. Still, that meant a second consecutive weekly close below the 50-week moving average. The volatility has been reflected in Bitcoin spot ETF trading volumes, which Coindesk says hit a record last week.

4:35Data from SoSoValue shows that$40 billion was traded, most of it on BlackRock's iBit. In other news, Bloomberg reports Thai crypto exchange BitCub is considering an IPO in Hong Kong. And Reuters says that Bitcoin mining has an unlikely resurgence in China. Despite a ban put in place in 2021, data from Hashrate Index shows China-based miners had a 14 % share at the end of October, the third highest in the world. That's it from me. There's plenty of content for you to digest on Real Vision today. I hope you enjoy it. Have a great rest of the day. spoilers about this video.