Fed’s “Risk-Management Cut”, Global Rate Moves, and Crypto’s Bullish Breakout: PALvatar Market Recap, September 18 2025

18 Sep 2025 · 6 min

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In short

Podcast Notes: Real Vision - Fed’s “Risk-Management Cut”, Global Rate Moves, and Crypto’s Bullish Breakout

Episode Overview

  • Title: Fed’s “Risk-Management Cut”, Global Rate Moves, and Crypto’s Bullish Breakout
  • Date: September 18, 2025
  • Host: Raoul Pal (via AI Avatar, Palvatar)
  • Description: Daily briefing on market movements, macro shifts, and crypto trends.

Key Highlights

  1. Federal Reserve Rate Cut
  2. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%.
  3. This marks the first reduction of the year, with two more cuts hinted at before year-end.
  4. Chair Jerome Powell described it as a “risk management cut” due to labor market weaknesses.
  1. Market Reactions
  2. Initial market volatility post-Fed announcement, with a subsequent positive reaction in European markets.
  3. U.S. futures indicate potential gains following the announcement.
  4. The dollar experienced a temporary drop to a multi-year low before recovery.
  1. Global Central Bank Movements
  2. Bank of Canada: Cut its interest rate by 25 basis points.
  3. Bank of England: Maintained rates at 4% amidst high inflation.
  4. Bank of Japan: Expected to maintain rates in line with the UK.
  1. Economic Data Insights
  2. Eurozone construction output showed significant growth.
  3. Italy reported a rise in its current account surplus for July.
  4. Japan’s core machinery orders fell sharply, indicating potential economic challenges.
  1. Cryptocurrency Developments
  2. Price of BNB crossed $1,000 for the first time.
  3. Binance nearing a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice related to compliance monitoring.
  4. The U.S. SEC approved new rules allowing exchanges to list ETPs holding spot commodities, including cryptocurrencies, streamlining the approval process.
  5. Stock of Bullish surged following an earnings beat.

Key Takeaways

  • The Federal Reserve's actions reflect a cautious approach to current economic conditions, aiming to manage risks in a volatile labor market.
  • Global central banks are reacting to similar economic pressures, indicating a synchronized approach to monetary policy changes.
  • The cryptocurrency market is showing bullish signals, with significant developments in regulation and market valuations.
  • Investors should monitor geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.-China trade frictions affecting tech sectors.

Audience and Purpose

  • Target Audience: Traders, investors, and macroeconomic enthusiasts.
  • Purpose: To provide concise, data-driven insights on current market conditions, enabling informed investment decisions.

Additional Resources

  • For more insights, listeners are encouraged to check Raoul Pal’s latest episodes and reports on the Real Vision platform.

Disclaimer

  • The views expressed in the episode are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions.

Connect with the Show

  • Twitter: [@RaoulGMI](https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI)
  • Instagram: [Raoul Pal](https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/)
  • Website: [Real Vision](https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw)

Merch and Promotions

  • Visit the Real Vision merch store for exclusive products: [Real Vision Merch Store](https://shop.realvision.com)
  • Explore Figure Markets for crypto-backed loans.

This episode serves as a critical update for anyone engaged in financial markets, especially in understanding how macroeconomic shifts influence both traditional investments and cryptocurrencies.

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Transcript

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0:06Today's video is sponsored by Figure Markets, the largest non-bank mortgage lender in the US with over 15 billion unlocked on their lending platform. They've just lowered rates on their Bitcoin and ETH-backed loans even more to 8.91%, which is 9.999 % APR, improving their already industry-low fixed-rate 50 % LTV loans. They keep building as well, having also just launched decentralized MPC Custody, the only place to get that amongst the major loan providers, and removed interest deferral fees entirely. What is MPC decentralized custody, you might ask? Well, it's a Bitcoin or ETH on-chain wallet with multiple key shards to protect you from a single entity custody failure.

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1:24Check out his latest Journeyman episode with Jamie Coutts for free on the Real Vision website to find out what he's thinking right now. or his appearance on the Diary of a CEO, if you haven't watched that yet. Now, let's take a look at the news. It's the post-Fed day, so no wonder it's the biggest driver of market sentiment. As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the target range of 4 % to 4.25%, marking the first reduction of the year. It also signaled two possible further cuts by the end of the year, but only one next year. Chair Jerome Powell called it a, quote, risk management cut amidst signs of weakness in the labour market.

2:04After an initial wobble on Wall Street on Wednesday and parts of Asia today, European markets have reacted positively and US futures are pointing to gains. The dollar fell to a multi-year low before recovering. There have also been no rate surprises from several other central banks. The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate by 25 basis points yesterday, as did Norway's monetary policymakers today. The Bank of England held its rate unchanged at 4 % as the country continues to deal with stubbornly high inflation. The Bank of Japan is expected to follow Britain's suit tomorrow. In terms of economic data releases, Eurozone construction output grew significantly, while Italy reported an increase in its current account surplus for July.

2:47However, Japan experienced a sharp decline in core machinery orders, which fell well below expectations, indicating potential challenges ahead for capital expenditure trends within Asia's largest economies. In the crypto land, the price of BNB has crossed$1 ,000 for the first time. The milestone came amidst reporting that Binance was close to a deal with the US Department of Justice to drop a compliance monitoring requirement that was imposed as part of a settlement in 2023. Coindesk reports there is also speculation about a potential return of the exchange's co-founder, CZ. In another bullish signal, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has approved new listing rules for exchanges of ETPs holding spot commodities, including cryptocurrencies.

3:35The regulator will no longer be required to do an individual review each time. One beneficiary could be bullish, whose stock has surged following an earnings beat. That's all I've got for you today. Check out Ash Bennington and Jamie Coutts' conversation from last night, where they dive into the impact of the rate cut on crypto. And there's lots more exciting content headed your way today as well. Enjoy.

From the publisher

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe.

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar.

⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar breaks down market anticipation ahead of the Fed’s expected 25-basis-point rate cut, with all eyes on Powell’s press conference for forward guidance. U.S. retail sales surprise to the upside, gold pulls back from record highs, and long-duration Treasuries gain interest. In Europe, inflation remains steady, while UK numbers show no surprise. Japan’s exports outperform gloomy forecasts, but Singapore disappoints. Meanwhile, tensions escalate as China bans Nvidia chip purchases amid ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions.

🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights.

🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence.

🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com

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Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets.

Connect with Raoul:

Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI

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