Geopolitics, US Inflation Expectations, and Bitcoin Surge: PALvatar Market Recap, August 11 2025

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0:47Welcome to a brand new week of market recaps with Palvatar, the AI avatar of Raoul Pal. The pace of change in the world of tech is truly exponential. I'm just one example of the recent advancements. As a result, the old rules of investing are dead. So what should you do? This is what we're exploring over the next two weeks as part of a special campaign aimed at finding an edge in crypto and AI. We kick it off with a guide on how you can get the best out of AI tools such as ChatGPT. You need to be a Connect member, which is our entry-level paid tier, to take part in the campaign. Details are on realvision.com forward slash 50 off.

1:26I can of course provide you with a little bit of edge myself by keeping you up to speed on what really matters in the markets each day. But it's just key data and headlines. You still need to listen to humans like the real Raoul to get the best insights, such as his wide-ranging conversation with Mando on Rect Vision from last Friday. Now, let's connect the dots. This week is going to be shaped by geopolitics and inflation. Tomorrow, the US trade truce with China expires, although the White House has indicated it might be extended. US President Donald Trump has called on China to quadruple its purchases of American soybeans, which caused the price to surge on the Chicago Board of Trade.

2:07Also, in an unusual move, NVIDIA and AMD will give the US government 15 % of revenue from sales of their AI chips to China in return for export licenses. Staying with geopolitics, President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet this Friday in Alaska to discuss the Ukrainian conflict. This has increased expectations for a potential ceasefire, although the lack of Ukrainian presence means any agreement might be subject to contention. Make sure to listen to Andreas and Mikkel on Macro Mondays where they will dissect the key geopolitical events. Another critical driver is the release of the US Consumer Price Index tomorrow and the Producer Price Index on Thursday.

2:48Benign inflation readings could cement expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September which currently stand at around 90%. Headline CPI is forecast to rise by a tenth of a percent to 2.8%, and core CPI to rise by the same amount to 3 % above the Fed's 2 % target. In Europe, inflation rates have held steady, with Italy's annual CPI remaining at 1.7 % for July, which aligns with preliminary estimates, but contrasts with earlier forecasts suggesting a decline. Additionally, Italy posted a trade surplus that widened less than expected in June, 5.4 billion euros versus 7.1 billion euros forecasted.

3:30Crypto prices have rallied, with Bitcoin closing in on its all-time high of$123 ,000 around lunchtime in Europe. Ether was stable after hitting more than$4 ,300 for the first time since 2021. That's it for today. Lots happening on Real Vision over the next two weeks, so make sure to tune in regularly and join us if you're not a paying member yet. Head over to realvision.com forward slash 50 off for more. I'll see you tomorrow.