Global Market Risk-Off, Manufacturing Contraction, and Crypto Turmoil: PALvatar Market Recap, November 04 2025

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1:34Kidding aside, you've got a treasure trove of in-depth analysis on Real Vision, including Ash Bennington speaking to a new guest today, Corvin Kaderla. But here's my recap. It's risk-off in global markets today, as the US government shutdown is now the joint longest on record, AI frenzy takes a pause, and traders continue to ponder whether the Fed will play Santa in December with a rate cut. Australia's equivalent added fuel to the hawkish fire, keeping its rate unchanged, and signalling that might be it for any cuts. US stocks are flashing red. Europe is bleeding. The Nikkei hit a record high before closing lower.

2:12You get the picture. Even Palantir stock has dropped way lower despite beating expectations with Q3 earnings and delivering a strong fourth quarter guidance. With the federal shutdown now in its sixth week, public data scarcity reigns, so extra weight is being placed on private releases. And let's just say the latest ISM print did not deliver the goods. US manufacturing declined for the eighth consecutive month in October, missing expectations of upward momentum. PMI fell to 48.7 versus forecasts of 49.5 and below September's level. A reminder that a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Confusingly, ISM's data is in stark contrast to that from the S &P Global, which shows the US manufacturing sector continued to expand last month.

2:59Go figure. The data followed pretty weak manufacturing PMI readings from other advanced economies yesterday, including the Eurozone, China and South Korea, as some blamed the impact of US tariffs. The UK and Spain were the positive outliers. Japan added to the bleak situation in global manufacturing today. The S &P Global PMI fell to 48.2 in October, marking the steepest decline since March 2024. It's the fourth consecutive month of contraction there, and the fact new orders dropped at their quickest pace in 20 months signals the road to recovery could be steep. Additionally, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed concern over rapid currency movements following verbal intervention aimed at stabilising the yen.

3:47The dollar-yen pair experienced fluctuations due to these remarks. The dollar eased from a three-month high against a basket of major currencies. Speaking of currencies, crypto prices are looking nasty. Bitcoin fell to$103 ,500 for the first time since June, around midday in Europe, but altcoins got even more battered. CoinGlass data shows more than$1.3 billion in leveraged bets got liquidated, with the vast majority of those being longs. The sentiment has not been helped by an exploit of DeFi protocol Balancer, which had more than$110 million stolen. In more bullish news, Animoca Brands has announced it wants to list on the Nasdaq via reverse merger with Singapore-based Currents Group.

4:31And Ripple says it has acquired UK-based crypto wallet provider Palisade to expand its institutional custody services. That's all I've got for you at the moment. Remember, don't fuck this up and follow Real Vision. I'll see you tomorrow. Chapter 10