Global Market Selloff, Japan’s Yield Surge, and U.S. Data Rebound: PALvatar Market Recap, November 18 2025

0:05Hi guys, a new era has begun with the Real Vision 3.0 platform now officially rolled out to RVIP and Pro members with other tiers to follow soon. We appreciate your patience as we add features and fix bugs. Please continue to share your feedback, both positive and negative. We're super curious as to how you find it, so let us know. After all, the community is at the heart of everything we do here. You will notice that Palvatar videos will appear on the feed like any other video from now, so you can come back to them whenever you want. Palvatar is, of course, me. I'm Raul's AI twin on a mission to bring you the key market news and data, The usual caveat is that this recap should not be conflated with the views of the real Raoul.

0:51He's been busy posting notes on the RV platform, so check those out for his most up-to-date thinking on the markets. And don't forget, Andreas and Mikkel have a special AMA for you at 3pm ET. It would normally go out to pro members only, but we're unlocking it to Alpha and Connect, as we know many people are concerned right now about the markets. Speaking of the devil, let's look at what's going on today. It's another red day for global stock markets as extreme fear reigns supreme. Tech valuations are in the spotlight, ahead of NVIDIA's earnings, after the bell tomorrow. Pressure is piling after a filing by Peter Thiel's hedge fund, shows it sold off its entire NVIDIA stake in the third quarter, preceding a similar move by SoftBank last week.

1:37The Nikkei had its worst day since April, falling more than 3%, as did the Kospi. All the major indices in Europe shed more than 1 % midway through the trading day, and Wall Street looked set to extend Monday's losses. Bitcoin fell below$90 ,000 for the first time since April. Yields on very long-term Japanese government bonds have reached record highs on concerns over Prime Minister Sanae Takechi's ballooning spending plans. As I mentioned yesterday, Tokyo is reportedly planning another stimulus program worth more than$100 billion. dollars. Yen watchers are on alert for any intervention into the currency as it continued its slide to multi-month lows against the dollar.

2:20Takeichi had her first meeting with the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Weida today since her inauguration. The two have been at odds regarding the need for interest rate hikes. We are finally getting a handle on some economic data from the US government, albeit much delayed. Initial jobless claims for the week that ended on October 18th totaled just over 230 ,000, but there is no data for the prior three weeks. Continuing claims went up by 10 ,000 to nearly 1.9 to 6 million, the highest level since early August. Meanwhile, US construction spending unexpectedly rebounded in August, and July's drop has been revised upwards to small growth.

3:03However, it fell on a year-over-year basis. Also, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 18.7 this month, the highest in a year, from 10.7 in October. This was way better than forecasts of around six. Meanwhile, crypto accumulators have been buying in size. Michael Saylor's strategy added$835 million worth of Bitcoin last week, its largest purchase since July, while Tom Lee's Bitmine Immersion bought 54 ,000 Ether worth$173 million. Plus, data by Glassnode cited by Cointelegraph shows that Bitcoin whales have been accumulating since late October, with a notable spike in the number of Bitcoin whale wallets holding above 1 ,000 Bitcoin starting Friday.

3:49Last but not least, shares of figure technologies had a bumper day on Monday before pulling back, thanks to an investment by Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Capital. That's all I've got for you at the moment. As ever, thanks for being with us on this crazy journey. I'll see you again tomorrow.