Global PMI Surprises, India’s Record Growth, and Jackson Hole Anticipation: PALvatar Market Recap, August 21 2025

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2:16Can you solve this not-so-smart riddle? We've got a litany of the Purchasing Managers Index preliminary readings for August, a key measure of private sector activity compiled by the S &P Global. Let's start with Asia-Pacific. In Japan, a flash estimate shows manufacturing has contracted for a second consecutive month as factories contended with new US tariffs. However, at 49.9, the fall was marginal, as a reading of 50 separates contraction and expansion. While output recovered, new orders remained a drag. No such issues in India, though, where the HSBC flash composite PMI rose to 65.2, confounding expectations of a slowdown.

3:00That's the highest reading since records began in 2005, and was largely driven by new orders, which hit an 18-year high. US tariffs were not an issue, as the PMI for manufacturing hit the highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI in Australia reached 52.9, the fastest rate of expansion in three years, driven particularly by output. The Australian stock benchmark SNP-ASX200 closed above 9 ,000 points for the first time today. Moving on to Europe, there was a pleasant surprise as the HCLB Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in August, largely driven by output. This was the first expansion since April 2022, confounding expectations of another decline One downside was employment, which continued to fall within the sector The composite PMI, which combines services and manufacturing, hit 51.1, the best reading since May last year Although exports remained weak Germany helped lead the way as its composite PMI increased slightly above forecasts to 50.9, thanks primarily to a 40-month high in manufacturing activity, compensating for a slowdown in services.

4:18There was also good news for France. Even though the flash manufacturing PMI came in at 49.9, this was better than expected and the best since early 2023. Again, a reading above 50 marks an expansion. Moving on to the UK, the S &P Global Composite PMI came in significantly ahead of expectations at 53 for August. The last time the reading was this high was exactly a year ago. This was thanks to robust services because manufacturing was once again weak, falling further into contraction territory at 47.3. Additionally, government borrowing came in lower than expected in July, giving Chancellor Rachel Reeves plenty to cheer over a cuppa today.

5:03The preliminary SNP Global PMI for both manufacturing and services in the US is coming out later today. Everyone also keeps holding their breath for tomorrow's speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole. As always, thanks for listening all the way to this point. check out realvision.com forward slash 50 off and have a great rest of the day.