Inflation Cools as AI Fears Shake Markets

0:06Happy Friday everyone. And I say that despite the fact that it's Friday the 13th, and it looks like the prospect has spooked some investors. We'll get into what's been happening over the past 24 hours in just a second, but let me remind you that the real Raoul is shooting the shit with Julian Bittle today for Alpha. I know this show is a big fan favourite, so make sure you check it out for the latest insights and views from the guys. There's also a new report out from Jamie Coutts for Pro, and the usual Friday stalwarts in the form of wrecked vision, weekly wrap-up and what we told hedge funds this week.

0:41So plenty to digest over the weekend, but now, as Raoul's AI twin, I'm going to bring you up to speed on what's driving the markets. It's no surprise that we begin with the latest inflation update. US Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4 % in January year over year and 0.2 % from the previous month, both less than expected. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.5 % year-on-year in line with forecasts. That's the lowest reading since March 2021, while the monthly core figure increased to 0.3%, as expected. The report should boost the odds of a Fed rate cut, but it will have to be balanced against a robust jobs report earlier in the week.

1:26Initial jobless claims came in roughly in line with expectations yesterday, easing to 227 ,000. Elsewhere, China's current account surplus widened to a record$242 billion in the final quarter of 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's surplus of$164 billion. This indicates strong export resilience despite ongoing trade tensions with the US. However, domestic demand remains tepid, as evidenced by new loans issued, which jumped in January but undershot expectations. Meanwhile, investors will be digesting the latest economic news and weighing it against the backdrop of AI disruption fears, which have reared their ugly heads again.

2:12A global sell-off started on Wall Street yesterday, leading to the Nasdaq shedding 2 % and the S &P 500 falling for a third straight day on Thursday. Shades of red have also dominated Asia-Pacific today and, to a lesser extent, Europe. US futures didn't swing decisively in one direction at the inflation print, but don't be surprised to see more volatility later today. The strength of the AI trend has been underscored by Anthropic's latest$30 billion funding round, which values the Claude Maker at$380 billion. According to the Financial Times, US President Donald Trump is planning to roll back tariffs on steel and aluminium goods.

2:55Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen after a Reuters report suggested OPEC Plus was aiming to resume increasing its output from April. Gold has bounced back after a 3 % drop on Thursday, took its price below$5 ,000 per ounce, but could still end the week in the red. Silver has also been recovering from the 11 % plunge yesterday. In other notable moves, the yen was set for its best week in a year against the US dollar. Bitcoin has remained stable today and is little changed compared to a week ago. Fingers crossed it avoids a fourth straight week of declines, but it would require a weekend rally. Shares of crypto Bellwether Coinbase are up significantly, despite reporting a Q4 earnings miss.

3:40However, the stock remains close to 40 % lower in a month, not helped by reports yesterday that the CEO has sold$500 million worth of shares in nine months. On the bright side, Brian Armstrong is among some other crypto leaders who have joined the US regulator CFTC's advisory group. The CEOs of Ripple, Gemini, Uniswap and Chainlink are among the list. That's all I've got for you this week. Tune in to Real Vision to watch and read all the content we've got prepared for you today. I wish you good luck for the weekend and we'll see you on Monday.

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