Is $60,000 the Bottom for Bitcoin? | REKT Vision, June 5, 2026

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1:08Happy Friday, everyone. Welcome back to Rect Vision. I'm Bijan Malecki, and today we are joined again by OSF. Thanks for joining us, Ovi. Happy Friday. How are you? Yeah, not bad. Not so happy Friday, but we're doing well, as is tradition every time I'm on this show, apparently. You know, just trying to find some positives in it, you know. But quick note to everyone before we get into today's show. I mean, we've got a lot to talk about. I mean, if you've looked at your portfolio, you'll know we have a lot to discuss. But before we get into it, our RV analysts have been dropping their playbooks.

1:47It's their actual frameworks on how they navigate the market. So whether we go up or whether we go down, whether you're bullish or bearish, we're just trying to figure out what's going on. Check it out because they drop a playbook to help you whether the market's up or down. So head on over to realvision.com. Andrey, this is just dropped yesterday. Jamie's is dropping today. So check that out. So Ovi, I mean, I guess let's just start with it right there. Obviously, Zcash, top story, but I want to start with Bitcoin and just kind of see where your head's at with it? Because we're kind of at that 60K level, which I think is like a psychological level, if you will.

2:25But I just want to, what do you think about this? Is that resistance? Is it support? What are we looking at from here in your take? Yeah, I mean, Bitcoin and crypto overall is just in a very tough spot at the

2:47And Saylor, the strategy prefs, which have come under pressure, they've dropped below par. I think they're trading at 92. Well, they're trading at 92 today. And there's a massive dividend cash obligation that he has on that annually, which was, I think, known at the start. The way they planned to fund it was to keep selling more equity as Bitcoin rises and then fund their dividend payments that way. Obviously, Bitcoin has been weak and they've been the only big buyer in the market. So in order to fund those obligations, they have had to sell Bitcoin, which is kind of crazy. I think my guess is I know they made that initial sale of$2.5 million.

3:35My guess is they've sold quite a bit more than that this week, which has led the decline. I think there are some rumors out there that maybe sold one to two billion dollars worth I don't know I guess we'll see it when it's reported but my guess is they've sold a decent amount in order to fund a certain amount of runway of these dividend obligations now if that covers a year, two years and there's an argument to say there's you know not that it's bullish but there's an argument to say that at least he's done selling now but the problem is everyone else realizes this is a business model that you know is very challenging it's not it's not going to work unless there is another buyer of bitcoin who is not michael saylor and so that brings us to the second question which is like well who is the marginal buyer of bitcoin here um we all own it yeah everyone in crypto who owns it already owns it and they've been crushed so there isn't really like additional crypto demand ETFs have seen outflows.

4:40And the problem with ETFs and that TradFi bid, so to speak, is that's chasing all the AI stuff, right? Like all the AI stuff, AI stocks are up 10x in some cases over the last year. And I think as we can all appreciate the AI bubble, if you like, is showing no signs of slowing. The demand for AI is only going to continue to grow, which will feed down to the hyperscales will feed down to the memory guys it will just feed down through to everyone so you know with ai like sure stuff like um uh micron has has had an insane run and maybe it's drew a pullback but there's a level where people are like well i'm just going to buy this because it looks crazy cheap on a like forward price earnings ratio so i think um you know it's just like when all that stuff is going on it's really hard i think for people to be like you know let You buy Bitcoin with no catalyst other than the four-year cycle one that always comes back, which is kind of like the only argument for Bitcoin right now.

5:43And to take that a step further, the other big concern is obviously quantum computing, quantum resistance. And when you have an exploit like you did with Zcash, which was uncovered in the last 24 hours, or at least publicized in the last 24 hours, I'm sure people knew about it before.

6:05you realize this continued advancement of AI is a big threat to crypto and we're sort of now even seeing it play out in real time. And yes, it's just to find a narrative for crypto right now is really tough. Now, history will tell you when it's lost all narrative and everyone feels like they're going to give up, that's always the time to buy and always the time to average down and it always comes back. And I generally do agree with that. But I have to say, you know, it's really hard to defend it. It's really hard to defend crypto with everything that's happened, I think, in the last month. You know, at risk of sounding like I'm bearish on crypto at the lows.

6:47And I'm definitely not bearish on crypto. I think things always come back, but it's going to take a while for people to have confidence to do it. Now, you could just see Bitcoin Wells get together and start to pump it up, etc., etc.

7:04And the tech and the narrative always looked awful at low prices and always looks much better at higher prices. And who knows? None of us are really tech experts, right? The next thing you know, there's some real solution for quantum resistance. And then suddenly that changes the entire narrative, right? So the thing about good news and bad news and low prices and high prices is there is some probability that we will have some good news in the future and the prices will be a lot higher but we don't know what that is right now and there aren't we don't see the signs of it but as soon as you do see the signs of it it gets priced in very quickly so um yeah it's just it's a real tough one it's tough for crypto at least it's just been a very very tough market to invest in and trade and um if i had to guess i would guess you know i'm i'm not saying this with any conviction but i wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin falls even lower from where it is now and I think it's going to take I think prior to Zcash and all that kind of stuff I really felt like Bitcoin had bottomed and you know it would still be a long road to all-time highs but you know we would start the rally according to the four-year cycle and you know we were beginning to enter the accumulation phase and then next year we would maybe start to see some positive price action but you know it feels like there needs to be more of a clear out in it I think um but i don't know i mean how can how can sentiment get any lower than this it's stone cold bottom for sentiment right so yeah i think i saw it was at 12 uh as of this morning or last time i checked could have dipped even lower uh i think our producer is bringing that up right now but pomp was uh i literally i was watching pomp yeah it's up to 16 now i was watching pomp yesterday and he was talking about i think it's what in 2022 it was in the single digits uh even so which is you know crazy to think that we're lower than than where we are today but i want to ask you about the ai trade because yeah it is moving kind of like we're accustomed to seeing alts moving like they have people are saying the alt season is happening it's just in ai not in not in crypto but i wanted to like and at some point i feel like ai's been running so much people have you know seen such incredible gains on like these microns plays and and some of these memory plays and at At some point, they're going to have to take profits on these trades, I would imagine.

9:27Do you see that rotating, those profits being taken into crypto? How do you see that scenario? I just think there's obviously been a lot of capital that's left crypto to chase AI stuff. And ironically, what hasn't helped is the introduction of hyperliquid and the ability to trade stocks in crypto.

10:02So people who trade crypto and previously didn't want to trade stocks because there was too much of a hurdle to move capital out of crypto into stocks, now can just do it with their crypto on hyperliquid. So I think whether that capital comes back within the crypto space, it can do very easily. If you've made a 10x or a 20x in AI and then Bitcoin at the same time has simultaneously dropped 50%, I find it very hard to imagine if you're a crypto person, you're not tempted to buy and start accumulating, right? But the thing is, at what point do you do that? Which thing has the momentum? Which thing has lost the momentum?

10:40and I still think there's a lot of momentum to the AI stuff because we all know anyone who's spent a bit of time using Clawed or the advanced chat GPT features and AI, and we've spoken about this many times on the show as well, it's just the advancements are insane and the advancements are increasing at a level that's exponential. So that demand is only going to go up. that amount is going to go up substantially. And it's just a question of if the suppliers of various pieces of infrastructure for it can keep up with that and whether they mess it up and overproduce, et cetera. But I just think there's a lot of, to the stuff that's rallied, especially the memory stuff, stuff like Micron, SanDisk, South Korean things like Samsung, SK Hynix.

11:35Historically, they've been very cyclical stocks. and historically when their forward price earnings ratios are low which they are now you know the screen cheap it usually marks the top of their kind of cycle and you know that makes sense but the question is where you know are we if you think about the context of ai is that a what is what we're seeing part of a cycle or is what we're seeing part of a paradigm shift and And I find it, you know, most people think it's the latter, not the former. And so I think people just believe there's, even despite the move this year, maybe that's why the move has been so aggressive.

12:13I think people feel like there's more of that to run. And it's almost like people are scared to sell it and move into crypto, scared to sell it alone. So we would need to, we really would need to have a strong fundamental reason for crypto to get some of that capital back, I think, from equities. what do you see that not to put you on the spot what do you see that reason potentially being like what could that like i guess make people excited again to go back into crypto what would be that you know that reasoning i think um there's a couple of things number one clarity act everyone's familiar with it now and people you know the fact that it's taken so long and the fact that it's see you know it passing this month or in the first half of the year which is the same this month, that probability seems to be decreasing and people seem to be less optimistic on it, which ironically is a good thing because it means maybe it's not priced in.

13:14So that's one thing that could be a turning point. Second thing, and I've seen some media on this, is the strategic reserve for the US, which is if the US ever starts buying Bitcoin, I think that's a really big thing. I think it's a really really big thing and I think if they do it in any meaningful size it's impossible to not see lots of people buy on the back of that to me that's big enough for it to change the momentum and you know the US already owns tons of Bitcoin right they're like the third or fourth largest holder of it so if they start buying and everyone else starts buying that's just their position increasing anyway so it's in their interest to do it so I think these are two things that I can think of in the near future that are possible and probable even in some cases you can argue with within the next six months like clarity that's been the next six months I would certainly hope so strategic reserve I don't know but like these things are not out of the window and I think that could really change the momentum of crypto but there's probably something else that I can't think of that I'm not mentioning that is not on everyone's radars whether that's quantum resistance being solved for, who knows?

14:32These things just come out of thin air and then suddenly the price goes up and then suddenly that narrative seems stronger and everything else seems stronger. So to my earlier point, you don't always know what the good news is. And it's almost like sometimes you just have to buy on the bad news. And hope is not a strategy, but I hope there's some good news on the way. Well said. I want to come back to the micro strategy thing because one thing I've been seeing pop up on the timeline and in the Real Vision Discord as well, right, because they publicly sold 32 Bitcoin and, you know, they could have done more that we don't know about, like you said, but we'll find that out.

15:12But they are sitting on unrealized loss right now of nearly$12 billion, which is their biggest in history. And the question I am seeing all over is, Is this an FTX level disaster waiting to happen? I'm sure people are just going crazy, you know, exaggerating. But like, what's your kind of take to that question? For micro strategy. For micro strategy. Yeah. Look, the main issue, I think the main criticism of micro strategy this year was the prefs that they brought to the market. And this crazy annual dividend obligation they would have. And when you looked at it two or three months ago, it was like, how are they going to possibly pay this stuff?

15:58The only way to pay it is through raising equity. That didn't work. So what they can do is then sell Bitcoin to fund it, which is what they've done. So I don't think it's quite like FTX scale because unless Bitcoin really, really implodes, I don't fully understand. And I don't think they have like a specific liquidation level where they're like, oh, you know, we're screwed. And they've already sold some Bitcoin, right? They've already sold some Bitcoin to fund these payments. So, you know, they have the ability to sell more in the future as well. And so I don't think it's like going to necessarily be an FTX level spectacular blah.

16:38But, you know, there's an argument to say it sort of already has been, right? Just think of how much lower we've moved since the highs. Think about how much it's been microstrategy led. and they've just taken even more risk at a point when the market was quite precarious. So we sort of have seen that move now. It's just a question of who else wants to sell as a result of it and how we move on from it, basically. But what I think is more on par with FTX is actually what happened with Zcash because when what happened with FTX happened, And I think people were like, you know, this is over for crypto, right?

17:22Like, how can we keep our money in exchanges? How can we trust anything? But then the argument was like, well, just don't have your money in crypto. Keep it, you know, keep it self-custody. Don't have your money in exchanges. Yep, self-custody it, and you can move on from it. And so there was sort of like a path out. But for this, definitely, for Zcash and AI posing almost what feels like an existential threat to crypto, to self-custody. If you have money in an old-style Bitcoin wallet and it's like, that could be at risk, that means the original Satoshi wallet is at risk. What happens if those funds start to move?

18:03It's over. So I think that for me is a bigger concern. It's just a case of like how the rest of the world thinks and feels about it. But that to me, the worrying thing for me is like that. I don't know, maybe I'm just in the feel like I'm in the thick of it right now because of all the price action. But that to me feels, I feel more concerned by that than I did for FTX. When FTX happened, I was like, great, this is such an amazing opportunity to buy. And now I feel a bit, you know, a bit less sure about when that bottom could be. Yeah. Do you think this privacy thing was isolated to Zcash? Do you think Monero kind of gets guilty by association here?

18:43What do you think this essentially does to that whole privacy coin narrative? And I guess just the self-custody narrative in general? Yeah, look, I'm not a tech expert on what the actual exploit is. Like from my reading on it earlier, essentially people were able to mint an unlimited amount of coins which are actually not possible to track. So we don't know if, we actually don't know at this stage if that bug was exploited or not.

19:18If I look at the timeline and think about how Zcash just came out of nowhere with all these shills. I wouldn't be surprised if someone figured it out and then got together with a group of people and did what they did. But we don't know what's, we don't know if factually, if someone was able to exploit it or not. And we actually don't even know how many extra coins are out there if that were the case. That's the or anything about it. But I don't know the mechanics of Zcash versus Monero versus other privacy coins to know if that's the same thing. But conceptually, yeah. I think any privacy coin, that whole narrative of privacy is now at risk because it's like, fuck, if there is an exploit, how will we know it's being exploited?

20:07You know what I mean? And AI will just keep going. AI is just the improvements in AI will keep going. So, yeah, all of it, that entire, I think, I honestly think this has sort of killed the entire privacy narrative, in my opinion. All right. Well, you know, speaking of another one that's going down, someone else who publicly sold. So Arthur Hayes publicly, very publicly sold his hype position. Hype is down. I don't know if it's necessarily off of that, but like hype is just down in general. just want to talk to you how do you feel about hype just you know today where we stand it did recently hit all-time highs breaking above 73 dollars what uh we dipped what about 10 12 percent give or take what's your uh what do you where do you see hype right now yeah i think um it's clearly been the best coin um it's been the best coin this year you know it's shown that But the thing about hype is volatility is good for hype because volatility creates more trading activity.

21:10It creates more liquidations, therefore creates more fees. And because 98 % of the fees continue to go back towards buying the coin, unlike other coins, you know, you have people talking about Ccash, VVV, NIR, et cetera, et cetera. And on up days, they're great. But on down days, they have no offsetting buy pressure. People just sell, right? Whereas with hype, on down days, especially in volatile times like this, your downside is being offset by some form of buy pressure, some form of T-wapping. Now, when the price is down, it means the sell pressure is greater. But it would be down even more if those fees weren't going towards buying the coin.

21:46So I think for me, it's still, I think, the best coin in the market. And the whole privacy issue has certainly, I think, made this even a stronger candidate in terms of what to hold. And you're seeing TradFi adoption of it. As we mentioned at the beginning, you can trade stocks now on trade XYZ on Hyperliquid. And there's a Wall Street Journal article on Hyperliquid this week. I think it's getting to the point where everyone in crypto knows about it, but Tradfire only just starting to discover it. And that's a really big thing, I think, for Hyperliquid. So I can only see its activity continue to rise and the fees continuing to rise and therefore the entire platform and ecosystem continuing to rise.

22:36I think that's only going one way. The only risks would be regulation. Is there a regulation risk? in the US, we had some positive headlines with regard to crypto perpetuals in the US. So that's in Hyperliquist's favor. But that regulation is always a moving target and is predicated on the government who's in charge at the time too often, even though it shouldn't always be. So I still think it's probably the only thing I think I would own in crypto right now. would be hype. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030.

23:21I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. Yeah, I mean, it's hard to agree with you. I very publicly myself have been calling hype the coin of 2026. And I was really bullish on hype just when they had, when they were just what they were doing and the perps. And then they had that deal with Coinbase and Circle, which brings stable coin yields into the mix. Do you think, what is your take on where hype goes with that now added into it? Because I don't think we've, I don't think those have been kicked in yet.

23:56I don't think we've even seen what those can do for hype, if I might be wrong on that. But what's your thoughts on that one? In terms of what, just the - Like, so yeah, with USD, so that deal that Hyperliquid and Coinbase and circle did together where basically you know the stable coin yields are going to come into hyperliquid's ecosystem how do you see that playing into just what they're already doing with their all their revenue stream yeah yeah it's big i mean it's big i think people underestimate that because if you if you if you have cash part you don't want and if you have that people who care about that yield on that part cash are people who have a lot of value of that cash like it's large size right so i can only assume that would bring in you know much much bigger size and hyperliquid so um that is undoubtedly positive that we haven't seen um but again like the other thing the other thing i would say the other risk to it is this year we've had tons of defy hacks right and and exploits and we've just had this ccash thing you know and then people are talking about anthropics mythos being this crazy thing and it's not even released to the public yet so this is all that's the those these are the other risks on hyper liquid smart contract risk exploit risk but we don't we don't know what those risks are exactly um we don't hopefully they've you know they've put in enough work where it can't be exploited but you you've seen crazier things and that that's the thing for me that would be my biggest concern even though it's a tail risk you you know, tails are clearly quite fat at the moment.

25:37So you mentioned Nier and Nier had a really big pump. And I think it was kind of a little bit off of the back of that AI narrative, but also just like a lot of people actually talking about the ease of use with Nier in general. Now, obviously it's down 20 % very recently off of the back of that, you know, major green candle. What is your, what's your thinking on, on Nier protocol? Yeah, I mean, I'm sure lots of people have used the function. Nier were able to basically convert coins between networks at massive ease in a completely private way. And I think that's the thing that started to go a bit viral.

26:18Prior to that, there was the growing narrative of it being AI folks. I think even the founding team or Nier itself started out as an AI company before it was even in crypto. So I think that narrative starts to build. My fear with it now, and maybe some of that's already played out, maybe there's more to go, I don't know, is I just think that lots of people gravitated towards these same consensus trades, which was hype, near, Zcash, VVV. These were the only coins that were going up in the last three or four weeks. And it feels like everyone had sold everything to chase these. And now these are all underperforming the market because of what happened to Zcash and then going forward.

27:05So I don't know. I don't feel strong enough on there to think that it's going to be something that's game-changing over the next few days and weeks, first. Secondly, I think lots of people are just looking at the chart, looking at the price. and they're probably doing the basic analysis of, oh, wow, like when this was, when the price was at, where did it get to you? Like 20 or 30 in terms of dollar price? It was like, it was plus 20, over 20 in last cycle. Yeah. Right. Yeah. So I think they're probably like, okay, wow, this thing was 20 in the last cycle. Now it's two, but now it's got this great AI and privacy narrative.

27:44You know, this should shoot back to 20. But I think that the problem is, and I think people made this mistake with Solana last year too, and continue to do so. So you need to look at the market cap, a chart of the market cap, not a chart of the price. And if you look at a chart of the market cap, you see there isn't as much upside because of the way that can move. So I think I feel less strongly about that. The other one, I would be surprised if this wasn't on your question list, but the other one's VVV that I think people have been speaking about. I think that has a much stronger narrative because the privacy angle there is you're able to use LLMs without sending back your data to LLMs.

28:32It allows you to also use Chinese LLMs, which perhaps blocks in some places. So that I think is a really valuable thing, right? You want to be able to use AI and not have your data sent back to people, right? To be able to use it in a private way. So what it provides is extremely valuable, and I think it's not something that's going to go away. It's something that actually legitimately will ride the coattails of the expansion in AI. So now the question is, does a token have any value, and why does there need to be a token? and done a smart thing with, you know, if you stake your VVV, you get those DM emissions, which then can go towards your cost of using these LLMs, which again is actually a really good use case.

29:21Like if you're like me and probably many people using the show, you're using, you're spending some monthly amount on AI. And right now we can sort of do what we need to do in our$200 pro subscriptions, et cetera. But at some point that's going to change where they've nuked the LLM. So to get the good stuff, you'd have to pay way more and pay per usage, et cetera. So, you know, it's quite, I think it's quite a nice concept to think, okay, wow, I can buy this thing, which can go up if the AI now sort of keeps increasing, stake it, and the staking emissions I can actually use towards my costs of using the APIs.

30:03And I think that's a really, really powerful and actually really smart use of crypto and a smart concept in general. So I'm a bit more constructive on that, I think, going forward. But again, these things move very quickly. Everyone's in the same trade. Now they're starting to pull back and even underperform versus Bitcoin again. So I don't know when my entry on it would be. But I think VVV has a really good use case, I think. yeah no we're starting to see it now too especially where claude you know kind of shut off the use of their you a being able to use their subscription with your ai agents who get like an open claw hermes you can't you have to only you can only use like claude for example if you connect it through the api and those those those api credits those stack up quick if you're not paying attention oh my god i spent over i didn't even realize i spent over a hundred dollars last month and on API credits.

31:00And it was just, well, a little more than a hundred. But anyway, speaking of, you know, just kind of the AI and stuff, right. SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, they have very public IPOs coming up soon. Wanted to just get your overall take on that, because I feel like they're so hyped, you know, like just these are not feel like they literally are they're going to be ipoing at literally the highest price ever i think some will be even close to trillions of dollars i or you know market cap on an ipos what's your just what's your overall opinion on these ipos coming and like what it means for the market if like all of these coming so close together like how does that how what is that liquidity effect like just overall what what are you thinking here yeah i mean it feels toppy doesn't it it feels toppy it feels like um But I don't think I'm the only one that thinks that.