Is the Coast Clear for a New BTC ATH? | OSF and Mando | REKT Vision

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2:20Hello, everyone. We're back again. Feels like a bit of a week we had, wasn't it? quite wild what happened in financial markets over the last week we did we did say that we thought even if something happened it would be a bit of a rebound it was a little bit spicy at some moments i feel like over that weekend period but then we were back up and everyone talking about all-time high again by the end of this week how was your week did you do any trades or did you just fall asleep over the weekend and wake up uh to the monday tuesday rally no i did i i longed some bitcoin actually on was it friday or saturday when shit really fell out the bed i think it was saturday right yeah or maybe even sunday i think i i think i started i think i started buying bitcoin at around 103k and i averaged down i wasn't i wasn't buying spot i was just putting on like some small like low leverage longs um and then i averaged all the way down to about 100k i didn't quite catch the 99 or 98k um and yeah so i just took profits at when i when we reached 105 and a half obviously could have held on a bit longer but it was just really my my dgen lever trading more than um more than my main bags but i think everything kind of played we had a lot of people ask questions about it last Friday and they ended up being fair questions because, you know, an invasion, etc.

3:54did happen and things did escalate. But I think we had the right response to it, which was, you know, the most we expect Bitcoin to back up was like five, maybe 10%. I think we dropped what, like, yeah, around 10 % from the all time highs, but maybe only like five or 6 % from where we were on Friday. And if you bought that dip, you would have made decent money. So I think it kind of all played out as we had expected. The notable thing really is a continued rise in Bitcoin dominance or continued outperformance of Bitcoin versus altcoins. You know, like last week or this week, we had Bitcoin rebound.

4:33We didn't really quite see it in other tokens, did we? I know like Fartcoin was up meaningfully off the lows, but it's also off the highs quite a bit. It seems like the rest of the market isn't quite following what we're seeing in Bitcoin or indeed even in equities, which are up big this week as well. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's fair. Bitcoin dominance went up throughout this whole period, even on the rebound. I think ETH may have out-of-formed Bitcoin on the week. So what that really showed is that altcoins away from those two got pretty badly hurt. Or at least ETHPTC, maybe it's down slightly.

5:19But I think you're right in that it was only really those two that kind of saw a decent recovery to kind of where they were. I think both of those are kind of where we were doing the show last week. Bitcoin was around 106k and Ether was just shy of 2500 I think around that sort of level so they're the same but yeah a lot of other things kind of fell out of bed we I didn't think that you were going to see the attack over the weekend because it felt as though there was like some room of negotiation for or at least some olive branches of right let's get to a negotiating table but then there was lots of rumors about P52s in the air on Saturday and then And by Sunday, it was all happening.

6:03But it was just an obvious dip by really that one. I think the issue often with crypto is that because other markets aren't open on a weekend, people fantasize almost about these crazy scenarios of markets imploding. And then when Monday opened, oil was lower, stocks were higher, and crypto quickly realized it massively overreacted to what was going to happen. And Bitcoin just kept going higher after that. It's gone back up to like 108K, I think it was yesterday, and it's drifted down lower now. So it's kind of just back in this chop range that we've been in for a long time now. I don't really know here.

6:50Obviously, that for me is quite a big overhang gone now. particularly for inflation. So, like, obviously, oil prices don't look like they're going to go rock-steen higher anytime soon again now. Particularly if this ends up in a wider piece deal. And now the focus really is just on when the Fed's going to cut. And this week as well, we've got more indications that that could be September. And there are some wild predictions from Morgan Stanley that they're predicting over five rate cuts next year. Yeah. The backdrop then for macro feels pretty good, but I also just, we're stuck in this range. Sometimes it takes a lot to break out of a range.

7:36You know what I mean? Like whenever I've seen this break out of a range, it's because either everyone's been liquidated on the way down, which is kind of what we just saw now. I felt like there was a moment where it could push on to like 110K and keep on going and be like, oh, that would be really painful if revenue got liquidated. But now it's just kind of stopped short and is back kind of in the middle or close to the middle of the range it's been in. Are we in for a lovely summer of chop or do you think we're going to be in for a lovely summer of risk? Yeah, it's a good question. I think it seems like it's taking a lot to rake us through this Bitcoin all-time high and into price discovery.

8:21It's not the first time. I feel like in recent memory, especially around this time as well of the year, it's not the first time we've seen that. I remember back in 2023, after the BlackRock ETF headlines, Bitcoin would barely even break past the 30k level. It was very tough to get past that level. for a lot of last year, despite all the Trump stuff, it was very tough for Bitcoin to get above that, wherever it was, like 75, 80K-ish level. And then eventually you break through. And I think we're just seeing a bit more of that now. There's something to consider is when you do have a big backup, like we saw in April, I can imagine some people bought a ton of Bitcoin and they're now probably slowly peacing out of it.

9:09So you do need to wait for that risk to consolidate and clear before we can resume higher. you either need that risk to consolidate and clear, or you need new capital coming in. One thing I would say is the ETF demand has been relatively high over the last few weeks. So that's something that's definitely supporting the bids on both Bitcoin and ETH. I still don't know. I haven't looked at funding rates in a while, so I'm not sure if I'm supposed to read that as net buys or... I kind of say it. Yeah, so I think stuff like Athena keeps funding rates in check now these days. So I think it's probably like actual real capital coming in.

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10:52so yeah the question is you know what will it take for us to go through a couple of things i think are interesting is you know the crypto review that david sachs and his committee is doing we've been more than six months into that now so i think there could be some interesting developments that come out of that. I even missed this headline, actually, that David, he said that July would be a big month for US crypto law. He said July would be a big month, yeah, he said it yesterday. I think the main thing he's talking about is the stablecoin bill that will hopefully pass through the Senate and then there's some wider tokenization bills that he's saying that we might have more clarity on.

11:32So it's definitely a good sign that I don't know if that takes us through all time highs. I think the thing that might push it is staking ETFs or more ETFs being approved. But yeah, it's... It's... Still the Bitcoin Reserve stuff. If the US does say they're going to go out and buy Bitcoin and people have seemed to have forgotten about that as a potential development, that's something I think that could send us a lot higher. And obviously some states are already doing it. Yeah, it's happening on the state level. Texas came out and said they're going to buy some. I think it was only small, but it's been an interesting moment to look at.

12:19I doubt they'll buy crypto. I do think that they'll mine it. I'd be very surprised if they decided to get involved in mining.

12:32But yeah, this is the thing. For us, whenever we've broken out, it's because of something. something has shifted whenever it's just like you know uh progressive week by week good headlines often you can be in a shop and just be like why haven't we broken out and this is that one thing that just goes like right bam we're up and i'm starting to i don't know if that'll be september like maybe it's the rate cuts that cause that or we get something in the next month or two that is around there. The only big headline I see is the Stablecoin Act and ETFs. And maybe Stablecoins is enough to push. Interestingly, they feel like both of those are better for altcoins than they are for Bitcoin, though.

13:25Yeah. Probably, right. Maybe even particularly for ETH as well. Yeah, probably for Solana as well with the staking aspect. There's still 50-50 odds that you get a Solana ETF by the end of July on Polymarket, which I think is fairly interesting. The market's still predicting that they're going to get something. I think the main thing that we saw this week was the extension of this stock market falling in love with crypto again. And it's extended past circle, really. And now to some of the exchanges and trading locations. Yeah. So you had Robinhood and Coinbase both moving aggressively higher. Coinbase has set an all-time high, which is up 20 % on the week, which I think a lot of people consider Coinbase as a major.

14:21You know, it's like it's the alternative that people have owned for crypto exposure in their accounts. And you see that move higher in a time where it definitely has taken a bit of the shine off the rest of the crypto market. Like, I think people are paying less attention to altcoins in particular here. There were some headlines this week. that Coinbase is going to get into perps in the US at the end of July, and they're going to increase some of their Bitcoin treasury. But this felt more like the market repricing crypto exposure as an asset class. Do you think that's what people should be focusing on a little bit here more than with altcoins?

15:09We've said it a few times, that's where some of the opportunities are. But to see Coinbase, Robinhood, obviously before that we'd had. circle and we're starting to see some of the treasury companies even move recently. Do you think people should be focusing more on the stocks at the moment than on crypto? Yeah, I think it's a good question. It feels like another point of frustration for people in crypto, in altcoins, hoping for an altseason, and then watching some of these stocks which have a much more catched downside, let's put it that way. just perform crazy numbers. The Sharpe ratio on some of these stocks versus altcoins in the last two or three years must be crazy.

15:58But my feeling is that rather than selling alts to chase that stuff, I feel like that move for me has been missed by me in any of those stocks. I feel like I want to stick with the underpinnings performers and even if that's just bitcoin because bitcoin's self has underperformed a lot of these stocks right i just feel like crypto is next that's that's what it feels like to me more feels like we've had this even stocks we have this in crypto stocks market is very risk on right now bitcoin kind of got a little bit close to all-time high then back down then we had a big bit of a this week then back down it just feels like to me crypto is like next to move and we had many moments last year and the year before when stocks were outperforming crypto and people were getting very fed up in crypto and what ended up happening was you know after a few weeks or months whatever it was you then had that move in crypto and then it was just like a very aggressive move in crypto because obviously stuff in this space can move 10x plus 100x in some cases, and you don't get that moving equity.

17:15So there's an argument to say, okay, maybe you should withdraw money from crypto, put it into stocks, and then wait for the right moment to come into crypto. But it's hard. If you don't already have the position on, it becomes very hard to buy it because those moves happen. One day it will just happen. One day Bitcoin will have a fucking 10 % candle or something. and then you're just going to be like shit what do i do do i buy it here do i wait for a dip and if you don't if you already have the position on that's much easier to figure out what to do and generally you'll probably just be holding at that stage so um that's my view i think we're meant to like you know just stick it out here with crypto i still think um the best is yet to come for this year and it's just going to be game of patience here That's my gut.

18:02Because it's not just crypto either, though, right? It's felt as though some of the small caps or medium caps in, like, robotics, space exploration, and AI have really moved as well in the last week or so. Let's say the long tail of the NASDAQ is, like, ripping at the moment. that that's the other thing that's suddenly becoming i think tough to ignore i know i know rocket labs which is just absolutely storing at the moment but there's a few others in in various of these sort of like subsets sectors of of the nasdaq that just continuing to push higher and i do wonder if those stories will just continue to outperform altcoins here like i i guess i'm trying to focus on is is this idea of an altcoin season or not again which is kind of what kind of come back to a few different times and it's whether it's competing with what everything else rallying or what with what you're saying that that altcoins are going to catch up it's like the you know as the bottom of the pyramid and as liquidity flows in this sort of stuff will continue higher.

19:18I'm not so sure. I feel as though the eyes on crypto right now are low, at least on altcoins are low. The eyes on other subsets like crypto stocks is high and on other stocks seems to be very, very high. And on Bitcoin, it just feels like it's just hanging out. I've been surprised that Ethan Solano continued to not trade well. If everyone's so bullish on stablecoins and even bullish on ETFs and on just the narrative around crypto again, I do think that you have to logically think that the L1s is where some of this stuff will start to really see massive gains and we just haven't yet. What about Tron?

20:10Isn't most of the stablecoin activity on Tron, I guess, for USDT more than... Yeah. And also Tron is now... Justin Sun has sort of been let go by the US and Tron is planning to go public or something. Tron is like a stablecoin. It's such a weird coin. It has one of the highest revenues out of any chain in crypto obviously because of stablecoin transfers on it. A large bit of this is in sanctioned countries or... I mean, it's true, right? Tron is huge in Russia at the moment and huge in Iran, for example. When that Iranian exchange was hacked, I think it was earlier this week, it was withdrawn to Tron and then burnt.

21:03But the coin doesn't really go up that much. It has surprised me that Tron, I agree with you, that that would be one of the top ones I would say would gain from all of this going on. But I would also have said Ethan Solano would be up there too, which kind of scares me. It kind of scares me. So it feels like Bitcoin leads everything rather than it's impossible to have a bullish narrative around crypto, which isn't just Bitcoin going higher. Like that's just the top one. If Bitcoin isn't going higher, it's tough to be bullish on L1s, it seems.

21:45Yeah. Unless it's the sort of thing where once the activity, because presumably once certain regulations are passed, the activity 5Xs, 10Xs, whatever it is, and maybe Circle is starting to price that in. but maybe the l1s aren't because those fees aren't yet printing but you would imagine there's like a massive as activity increases there's a massive surge of free fees and maybe people need to just see those numbers to then realize oh shit like you know this stuff should be yeah i would say that sometimes sometimes you do need that to like prove prove product market fit after something happens I wanted to touch, again, just slightly on Coinbase, because one of the big stories this week was that they are going to launch perps in the US.

22:35And there's been a range of takes on that. The main one, I think, has been just been affecting Hyperliquid, which has been one of the best performers of this cycle. It's kind of universally liked as an act. and the coin hit a FDV of around, I think a high of 44 billion right now, it's sitting around 36. People have had a mix of range of reactions here about how it's going to affect hyperliquid. In the past, we've seen Coinbase release features to much fanfare like the NFT platform and never really worked out. This feels maybe a bit more substantive than that. we'll start with that one there do you think that Coinbase is about to threaten Hyperliquid and yeah like do you think that was also probably the reason for the big rally in Coinbase?

23:38It's definitely one of the reasons why Coinbase valid I think because you know the PERP offering is a very popular product and can it threaten hyperliquid yes and no I think there's a good chance it can because you know you could have a big retail onboarding mechanism very easy to transfer right into your bank account they have a 12 % interest offering right now on USDC balances so you can literally like go long bitcoin levered long bitcoin with your USDC balances collateral and earn 12 % while you do that. I think that's a pretty interesting trade. So there's a lot going for it that I think will draw users in.

24:25Hyperliquid to me feels like it's more of a protest trade against centralized exchanges and obviously lower KYC requirements, all that kind of stuff is the reason why many whales are on it and will be on it. So I don't know if like, I don't necessarily think Coinbase is going to kill Hyperliquid or steal activity from Hyperliquid, but that doesn't necessitate it won't be successful and that Coinbase stock can go up. So I think the two things can coexist is what I'm saying. And I think it's more likely that anyone who is trading on centralized exchanges in the US through VPNs and Bybit and that kind of stuff probably now get a legit account on Coinbase, but they can actually have, they can be doxxed and transferred to the bank accounts and stuff.

25:17That's probably what's going to happen, I think. I don't think it's going to take too much away from Hyperliquid, that's my guess. I agree with you. But I do think that the headline itself and the fact that it's happening at the end of July, I think we could have a bit of a war war here. It feels kind of like Pumpkin releasing a coin for Solana and its effect on Solana meme coins. The correlation perhaps isn't when we actually see what actually happens i don't think it will really affect it that much but it does feel as though in the interim people might go back and forth and you know call for the end of hyperliquid and all this sort of moves and just like we've seen how it's affected uh the narrative is more important sometimes than like the result so i have a bag of hyperliquid again it was one of the things i bought pretty aggressively in that dip um i said you know i've layered it from 30 to 35 and i do wonder if it's going to have a bit of a week's july here i'm going to keep it positioned but it's definitely on my radar or something that oh yeah you know this this can turn against me but i'll be plying if it goes at any sort of materially lower

26:32um what is do you have target levels to to add more where is it now it's down to what like 30 no no it's about 36 it hit um it hit 32-ish on on that sell-off and that i had uh i had lathered it from from 35 down to 30 so not not everything hit but i got some good prints on that that was like the main thing i bought on the dip and it rallied all the way back up to basically 39 40 but now with this headline it's going to dip lower again and uh yeah i'm just kind of humming and raring about it there's definitely one that i really like but i can imagine could have a bit of a difficult july now just just on that narrative alone it but then again it becomes difficult for me to go the other the other altcoins that people have been talking about some of these d5 coins come back so there's are they a lot of people talking about syrup which is the the coin from the maple finance guys i think i bought a little bit of that as well i

27:47I don't know. I like ETH. I like ETH here. But I don't love a lot of other altcoins. I think that some of the stories are just really difficult. Hyperliquid was like, okay, this is a story I think you can really get behind. And I like Arve. And I like Syrup, I think. But I don't know if I want to get involved in any other altcoins apart from those. Have you bought any altcoins? or you just bought Bitcoin, despite saying you think we're going to get an alt season? I've been really tempted to dip my toe in altcoins in the last day or two. Honestly, I haven't really done much trading. I don't have much time to do much trading.

28:33And when I don't have a lot of time to devote to it, I just try not to do it because I end up losing money. I think in this type of market you really have to be switched on here that being said it is tempting just to buy a bag of altcoins and just kind of forget about it and be like hey this is my EGEM play for altseason but I kind of already have that anyway so I don't know it's tempting to add stuff here because I think there are many altcoins which are still at or just above April lows. They don't look good. I'll tell you that. They don't look very good. The others chart is generally what people use to describe altcoins.

29:24I think it's all the coins outside the top 10.

29:29It's not at the lows, but it's a chart. It doesn't look like it's not a healthy looking chart if you zoom out. This thing, when this is in a market where Bitcoin is literally 2 % or 3 % or maybe 4 % or 5 % from all time high, it does surprise you that this still trades where it does. I'm still in the view that it can go lower, man. I'm still in the view that it can go lower. This is where I think we are debating the most. It can definitely go. I just said, even what you just said, which is that you bought Bitcoin on the dip. You bought Bitcoin on the dip. all right you've been coming on this show weeks all about lovely people are in awkward season coming and you bought bitcoin that i think i'm not saying it can't go lower what i am saying is i think i think they're two different things if i'm i'm gonna scalp something over the course of two or three days then i'm gonna go for bitcoin right because i know it will actually move higher on the bounce.

30:36And you definitely obviously can't say that for many altcoins. But my point on the on the alt season is that I just think you want to have some exposure to it because when it does happen it's just going to snap so aggressively that you won't have time to get in. And you don't want to be faffing around on days when shit's moving up 100, 200, 300 percent etc. So I still I'm a believer in alt season. And I just think you have to have every time we've gone through portfolio constructions in the show, generally sort of be like, 40 % ETH, 40 % Bitcoin sort of thing. But I do think you want to have that 10 % or 20 % allocation to the stuff because

31:25if it does happen, you need to be positioned because it's just going to happen quick. I think it's you know this is different to ETH where ETH was like okay I hate ETH but you know I'm going to be ready to buy when the time is right and you had time to sort of get in you still have time to get in because I think the wind is changing but it's still at a low level I just feel like you're not going to get that same moment in alts because I think people will just FOMO so aggressively and it'll just be this like great big off top type thing and then you know last for a couple of weeks maybe and then back down it's going to be very hard to trade it if you're not positioned for it, I think.

32:02At least that's how it kind of, I guess in May, sorry, in 2021, it lasted longer than a couple of weeks, but it was also moving from coins to coins, right? It was very hard to, when we started trading crypto, and we were just in and out of all these altcoins, right? And every time I bought something, it was up like already up 500%, and then I bought it and it was down 50%, and then the other thing was up 500%. It was very like rotational, and just don't want to be caught playing that game. So I think for me, I just want to have like a collection of things that I know will do well if we get it.

32:37And then you probably want to sell into that, I think, when it happens. But I think that move can be very big and very vicious. What do you think of the idea that we may have just put in a lower, a lower, low, lower high on Bitcoin? Over what time frame? I think if you look at the channel from like the middle of May we've been hitting successive lower highs, lower lows