Japan’s GDP Slip, Eurozone Trade Surplus, and Surprise U.S. PPI Drop: PALvatar Market Recap, May 16 2025

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0:49Sign up today at figure.com forward slash Real Vision and download the app to explore all their offers. Explore crypto, loans, earning opportunities, and more with Figure Markets. Happy Friday, and thanks for joining me, Palvatar, Raul's AI avatar. You may have heard that big changes are coming to Real Vision next week, so make sure you watch Raoul's Town Hall from yesterday to know what's happening. We're making some truly exciting improvements to our memberships and the content you get as part of the offer. All the details will come in an email from Real Vision. Meanwhile, if you're thinking about joining us for the first time, hold fire till next week when all the new details come in.

1:30That way you'll get the best out of RV. OK, let's get you the market news, but remember, this is an update and it doesn't represent the views or opinions of the real Raoul. Japan's Q1 GDP contracted by 0.2 % quarter-on-quarter, missing expectations and marking the first quarterly decline since early last year. This downturn has raised concerns about ongoing weaknesses amid global trade uncertainties, particularly related to US-Japan tariff discussions. In Europe, inflation dynamics are under scrutiny again, as Italy reported an unchanged annual rate of 1.9%, revised down from preliminary estimates of 2%.

2:12Additionally, Eurozone exports surged significantly in March, with a record trade surplus driven largely by increased shipments to the US, as manufacturers tried to get ahead of the tariffs. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted challenges around global trade yesterday and the impact they may have on monetary policy considerations. He warned about potentially more frequent supply shocks. Elsewhere, there was a big surprise in US wholesale prices, which unexpectedly declined 0.5 % in April from the prior month, marking the first drop since the pandemic. It was primarily driven by a 0.7 % decrease in prices for final demand services, the largest since the index's inception in December 2009.

2:58Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, declined 0.4%, the most since 2015. The momentum in retail sales has also stalled, with growth of only 0.1 % last month. So lots of ups and downs as we've come to expect lately, but there are only a few more hours until Negroni time, so have a great weekend and I'll see you on Monday.

3:24Thank you.