Market Reversal, Hot Payrolls, Yen Intervention & Crypto Turmoil: PALvatar Market Recap, November 21 2025

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1:08It's Friday, it's Wrecked Vision Day, and as tradition dictates, we are getting truly wrecked again. It's brutal out there, so we're here for you. Thank you for joining me, Palvatar, for an update on what's happening in the markets. I'm Raoul's AI avatar, so what I say does not mean it's the views of the real Raoul. However, you heard from the man at length yesterday, answering questions from all of our paying members alongside Julian Bittle. Check out their AMA if you missed it. I hope it reassures you that the long-term thesis is intact, even if the near-term is rough. We also thank you for all the feedback and comments, both positive and negative, about the new website.

1:48Our team is working hard to bring more features and make it even better. Thank you for your patience and understanding. Now, let's see what's on investors' minds. NVIDIA's earnings beat now appears to be a distant memory, as global stock markets decided they preferred Scarlet over Emerald. The Nasdaq had a stunning reversal on Thursday, turning a 2.5 % gain into a 2.5 % loss. Data from Bespoke Investment Group, cited by MarketWatch, suggests that such a significant swing from positive to negative, or vice versa, has occurred only around 60 times over the past 20 years, although we did have a similar seesaw in April.

2:28Asian-Pacific markets followed with falls across the board, including some steep ones in Korea and China. Traders got spooked by a stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report, which showed 119 ,000 jobs were added in the US in September, more than double the estimates. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3 % to 4.4%. percent. Expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed have shot up to 70 percent from just 40 percent yesterday. We'll hear from five Fed officials today which could firm up those bets. Some investors also remain concerned about debt-fuelled spending blowing an AI bubble, despite another blowout earnings by NVIDIA.

3:10Japanese officials have stepped up their vocal interventions over the yen value, lending some support to the beleaguered currency today. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama signalled that a more concrete action could be taken if the national currency continued to weaken. Additionally, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Weida has raised the prospects of a rate hike next month. In economic news, the HCOB Germany services PMI fell to a solid but lower reading of 52.7 in November from a previous high of 54.6 in October, indicating a slowdown in growth despite ongoing demand in the services sector.

3:48Additionally, the HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI also declined to a reading of 52.1 from October's figure of 53.9, reflecting deeper contractions in manufacturing activity. Europe was trading lower midway through the session, although not as heavily as Asia. The UK reported higher-than-expected public sector net borrowing at£17.4 billion for October, against expectations of around£15 billion This has once again raised concerns about fiscal pressures ahead of an anticipated budget announcement next week, which is likely to include tax increases Consumer confidence has tumbled, as reflected by retail sales, which fell 1.1 % in October, much worse than expected Adding insult to injury, a flash estimate of the S &P Global UK PMI decelerated to 50.5 in November.

4:43A reading above 50 indicates growth. There's no escaping from the fact that crypto is looking downright ugly today. Bitcoin suffered a double-digit loss, tanking to just over$80 ,000 around lunchtime in Europe. As you can imagine, altcoins followed suit. CoinGlass liquidations data over the past 24 hours tallies at$2.2 billion, while Alternatives Fear and Greed Index fell to 11 points. Coindesk says the metric has not been this deeply in extreme fear territory since the 2022 crypto winter. According to SoSoValue data, BitcoinSpot ETFs saw more than$900 million in net outflows yesterday, the second worst day on record.

5:25That's all I've got for you this week. Let's hope for better days ahead. and I wish you respite from the charts this weekend. Join Mando and Spencer on RectVision for some group therapy, and then close out the week with Nico and Bijan. Take care, and see you Monday.