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Real Vision Podcast Episode Summary
Episode Information
- Podcast Title: Real Vision: Finance & Investing
- Episode Title: More "Spooktober" Than "Uptober" — Are Treats Next?
- Hosts: Mando and Raoul Pal
- Release Date: October 31, 2025
- Episode Description: Mando and Raoul Pal discuss the current narratives in the cryptocurrency landscape, the lagging performance of crypto compared to stocks, the Federal Reserve's stance, and upcoming price actions.
Key Themes and Discussions
Current Market Sentiment
- The current market is characterized by a bearish sentiment with participants feeling disheartened due to stagnating prices.
- Raoul Pal mentions an indicator he refers to as “monkeys throwing poo at each other,” which signifies heightened frustration and volatility in the crypto community.
- Mando and Raoul discuss the psychological aspects of trading, emphasizing the importance of patience and avoiding emotional reactions to market fluctuations.
Performance Comparisons
- Cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, has lagged behind stocks and gold in terms of performance this year.
- Raoul highlights that many in the crypto space underestimated the strength of other assets (e.g., NVIDIA, Tesla) compared to Bitcoin.
- The conversation touches on hedge funds rewriting mandates to focus on equities, signaling a shift in investor sentiment.
Liquidity Issues
- Both hosts delve into the role of liquidity in market performance. They note that current financial conditions are affecting crypto differently than traditional assets.
- Raoul discusses the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) and how it has led to liquidity issues, exacerbating the problems faced by cryptocurrencies.
Predictions and Outlook
- Mando expresses skepticism about the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, suggesting that this time may be different as many still believe in it.
- Both hosts predict a potential upside in the crypto market, especially towards the end of the year, as liquidity conditions improve.
- Raoul outlines a bullish long-term view for Bitcoin, comparing it to tech stocks that exhibit uptrends over extended periods.
Trading Strategies and Instruments
- The hosts discuss various trading strategies, including options trading and prediction markets, highlighting the potential for significant returns with relatively low risk.
- They touch on tools like Polymarket for placing speculative bets on crypto price movements, suggesting it could be an exciting alternative for retail investors.
Altcoin and Layer 1 Dynamics
- The discussion also covers altcoins, with a focus on their recent struggles and the challenges they face in gaining traction.
- Raoul mentions that while Bitcoin has remained stable, many altcoins have fallen below previous peaks, indicating a weak market for these assets.
Upcoming Trends and Opportunities
- Both Mando and Raoul agree that the end of the year could present significant opportunities for traders, particularly as liquidity returns to the market.
- They discuss the potential for altcoins to rebound, especially if Bitcoin breaks through key resistance levels.
Conclusion This episode provided a thorough analysis of the current state of the cryptocurrency market, incorporating macroeconomic factors, market psychology, and trading strategies. Mando and Raoul's insights reflect a mix of caution and optimism, encouraging listeners to remain patient and strategic in their investment approaches.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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2:54Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto and the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five-star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot.
3:36hello again we're back again for another episode of wreck vision this time we have the big man We have Raoul on the show. It's, I think, the first time you haven't come on, and we're not at all-time highs. It feels more like an emergency meeting by the state of the market right now. Or usually I'm just the glory hanger by the goal, right? Yeah, exactly. I've said you're like Ruud van Nistelrooy of the Real Vision community. Yeah, but now we've come on for the emergency meeting. This feels like an emergency despite Bitcoin basically being at$110K, like it has been for the last few weeks, ranging.
4:16This week, it felt like the pitchforks were out a few times, right? After the big liquidation a couple of weeks ago, and then we went down a little bit again yesterday. And it feels like complete hysteria out there, but also people just throwing in the towel. There's a copy-paste tweet that's just going around CT at the moment about people crashing out. everyone's posting it because it's just getting too much for people. Um, is that been your experience this week as well? Oh yeah. I mean, I can, there's a real indicator and I call it the monkeys throwing poo at each other indicators. It's when everybody loses their shit and starts insulting everybody on X.
4:54And I get all of these, but you said, and all of this stuff starts happening. Um, and that's reached a crescendo yesterday. And I'm like, yeah, it's probably the bottom. And it kind of happens every time. But really, the truth is, is when you actually kind of filter out the noise, what it is, is people are so desperate to get ahead. It's a real kind of, right, they all think of this as their one chance. So it's like a serious thing. But there haven't been around financial markets or volatile assets where you have to learn how to do this. And the way to do it is do nothing and stop worrying about it.
5:35But, you know, every day they think that the P &L goes down. It's like my financial future is ruined. It's all over for me. And then the next day they're like, I'm going to be a gazillionaire. I'm going to order a Lambo. It's like, just don't do any of that. Yeah, I think comparison is a thief of joy a little bit here. Because I think when we last had a period like this, which was really 2022, the whole market sold off. Like stocks weren't having a good period either. And this year, we've kind of gone sideways. Bitcoin's up 10%, something like that this year. But gold's gone higher. Stocks have gone higher.
6:09And when you actually speak to people about being crypto, it's less that, I mean, some have lost money this year. Some are just having a flat year. I mean, some have made money, but it's often just, I wish I'd put it in NVIDIA. I wish I'd put it in Tesla. I wish I'd put it in gold. And the longer that goes on, the more painful it is. I've seen entire hedge funds in the crypto space because I've got the asset management business that invest in crypto hedge funds, rewriting their mandates to trade equities. And I'm like, this is a signal, generally speaking. And when you say, well, why have equities done better?
6:47What's going on? Why is crypto underperformed? Why is gold outperformed? It's all based down onto the same everything code framework. So gold is currently, gold used to be real rates. That used to be what gold traded on for a long period of time. It's now current financial conditions. Financial conditions lead by about six months Bitcoin. So when you put those up, share the chart on X, it's like a perfect match. Is it going to match perfectly in the end? Who knows? But basically, it's living in the future gold or living in present financial conditions. equities have been living in liquidity as have crypto but since the um the fed shut down and the draining of the reverse repo there's been issues in the plumbing of the financial system so liquidity has been drained out and have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared try with plus 500 futures you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet with just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo.
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8:42Equities have a bid because everybody's structurally underweight tech stocks. It's a huge problem. I mean, everybody's on every survey is like record underweight tech stocks, and yet they keep ripping higher. So they're having to chase. And then you've got the 401k flows that come in by the passive investing. But crypto doesn't have that. So what's happened is it suffered from liquidity over this weird period of tightness that's occurred, which was the rebuild of the Treasury General account, and then their inability to drain it because of the government shutdown. They've got nothing to spend the money on.
9:16So it just keeps stacking up. It's$960 billion right now. And they can't spend it until the government reopens. And because the reverse repo is empty, there's no other liquidity measure they've got. So lo and behold, fucking repo market blows up or starts showing signs of stress. And the Fed have to step away from QT. And things will change a lot next year. There's a lot to come out of all of this. yeah i think from from my perspective how i've been looking at the market is this i maybe was slightly naive in that i felt as though the correlation to other assets would would just continue pretty cleanly and and actually i think we've just run into the four-year cycle i think having spoken to a number of different people particularly when i was in asia it just feels like about 30 to 50 percent of the whole of crypto still thinks we're in a four-year cycle yeah and i don't yeah and i don't either but i think this is going to be the first time that hasn't happened if it then we probably won't know until january maybe late late december and this period of time instead of us just having direct correlation to those very strong assets is actually we've gone through a period of a technical sell-off.
10:35We've had, since July, big wallets coming in and sell it. I saw your interview with Novogratz the other day where he similarly was saying, look, all we see is big Bitcoiners coming in to sell. And they don't care about correlation with gold or S &P or Global M2. They think that every four years, because of the Bitcoin halving, it's time to sell. And I think I was just like, you know, even thinking that that was just not going to be a thing this cycle. And actually, they just do it every single time. Yeah, because the issue is some of these guys, like I know some of them who bought Bitcoin at three bucks, and they bought millions of dollars worth.
11:13So they're sitting on billions of dollars of this stuff. And at some point, each cycle, they take more of it off. Yeah, and the time to take it off was in this period. I think October was kind of the four-year cycle. But even now, I guess they also don't really care if the cycle extends. you know it's the lifestyle chips ideas you take it off when you can and then you're happy yeah i think and because there's that collective thought about it i just think it's it's led to this indigestion and you've seen the correlations that we've had with most of the crypto assets to other macro indicators or other asset classes has drifted apart kind of since early summer you'd say because that's when you started to see this technical selling my gut and i've said this a few times on the show recently is that by December, you're not selling if you thought it was a four-year cycle in December.
12:06You would have sold before this period just now. And I kind of think we're going to have a bit of a Sancti-Cos rally and we'll have a catch-up December, January, actually, because I think a lot of that technical selling will be in the rear view. And then suddenly you'll have a big bit of that market go, oh, wait, we're actually going to extend it. This isn't going to be a four-year cycle. and that's why I think it's been slightly delayed. But it has been painful. The altcoin market has been mixed at best. Bitcoin dominance is still kind of kept up at around 60 % and there's that stat that came out a few weeks ago that a lot of the top 50 is now below FTX levels.
12:44It's just not been a great period here for altcoins, which while Bitcoin has been going sideways, have kind of been trending down the majority of them. you tend to get violent repricings when Bitcoin then breaks back through an all-time high or gets close to it but it's definitely tested people and on big coins Solana is kind of where it was 18 months ago, SUI 2 ETH is touched an all-time high and then it's back now below 4k it's just frustrating it is but when you zoom out I'm going to share a chart just because I think it's this one. This is the chart that really kind of matters. It's like the total free.
13:32So that's excluding Bitcoin and ETH. So we still haven't gone through where we were peak of the prior cycle. And it's been a slow crawl versus a speedy ramp. And this is because I think it's to do with the debt maturity got extended. So this is like a weird mid-year. Yes, I did imagine it was going to break this on this occasion when was that july sharing i don't know if i can see you're not i don't think i can see if you are i am sharing you are there you are we can see it now um i thought in july it was going to break through um not that i'd do anything about it and then it had the big puke but really a pattern like this usually means that we will eventually have what we want but it's the patients that's tested everybody um because this has been a long period where a lot of this stuff has not gone to highs and even then you know it was january that everything else was at its highs like sui and everything else and so everyone's been waiting 10 11 months or 10 months to have anything yeah look honestly i kind of feel like january in a traditional sense may have been like felt like a top um if it wasn't for the etf just kind of making sure that there was a continual bid for like the let's say bitcoin eth solana that felt like if you go back to what previous tops felt like that kind of felt like one with altcoins all going crazy narratives like you were calling it the ai narrative pretty aggressively at that time but like it was like you know we are we everything's about to go 100x you didn't want to hold any stables because you just everything was just going up so much higher.
15:15And then we've gone through this period of just sideways or downward price action. Now people are calling for the top. And I'm like, this just doesn't feel like a top. When people are like this, thrashing out every single week, that's not a top. That's not Bitcoin at 110K. No, it's when everybody's on X saying, celebrating each thousand rise. Bitcoin feels great at 150 ,000. I wonder how 151 ,000, when everybody's doing that kind of stuff, you kind of know that we're getting a bit effervescent. But also, when I look at it in macro terms is all the macro tops have come with business cycle tops or the business cycle low.
15:58They've all come with liquidity tops, liquidity is expanding. And then when you look on a forward basis, we've got the government shut down to reopen. That's going to open a trillion dollars of flow out of the Treasury General account, We've got Fed rate cuts coming. We've got the changes to the SLR, which is the minimum requirements for banks. We've got potential balance sheet expansion coming. We've got China expanding its balance sheet. We've got the Trump tax cuts to come into place. We've got, I mean, the list is endless of liquidity that's to come. And we've got to roll$10 trillion of debt.
16:34So my view is we had this extended year, which was this year, because they didn't need to roll the debt because the debt got matured to five years. So we just had ongoing liquidity. And I think 2026 is going to be a banner year. Can I ask? And I still think the end of this, I think November, December, could be very strong here as well. Yeah. I think, I think towards the end of November, it's going to be like, well, why are you telling now? It's not four year cycle. Like four year cycle doesn't happen. I know you, you, you, this, you know, the everything code and it kind of boils down into just one asset really, which is just like crypto.
17:11Have you questioned that at all recently with these sort of moves? Like, are you not, maybe tech is now going to be like AI. Well, within like Real Vision Pro and GMI, we've had tons of tech stocks. So we've always said, my personal portfolio is much more skewed towards crypto, but the portfolio there has been, you know, we've had fucking, I don't know how many stocks you had up 100%, 200%, call options up like three, 400%. It's been a stupid, easy environment in tech. But yes, the decoupling of NASDAQ from crypto has been interesting, but I think it's explainable. So normally, you need to figure out why something is happening and is there real signal there?
17:51So one signal may be crypto's topped and everything else is going to fall afterwards. I get it, but I would give that 20 % probability or 30 % probability versus crypto's being affected by liquidity at the margin because it's the most influenced by liquidity. And when it comes back, it plays catch up. So the alligator jaws get close to the upside. Yeah, I'm not worried about that decoupling for a long time. It will come back at some stage. You just don't know if it comes back on the way down or on the way up. That's right. And at some point, the NASDAQ will need to correct. but the structurally and there used to be a hedge fund uh who was one of my clients based out of miami every year they come on with the same trade and every year it worked and that trade was around about now they come and buy um call spreads and sell downside puts in the every major market because the year-end rally effect is real you know so go through that to people who maybe don't understand it so call spreads would be like you think it's gonna be between this this and this level to the upside, but then you're also going to sell puts.
19:00And sell some puts to make it a really cheap trade to do. Yeah. So a trade that normally, had you just bought calls, they would have cost you, let's say, 50 cents. But if you do a call spread, it does now cost you like 10 cents because you've capped some of your upside. And then you sell some puts way out of the money for 5 cents, and the whole trade costs you 5 cents. And then if it does go up, you may like 20 times your money. And they did this trade every year, and it works. Because the seasonality is so strong at the end of the year. And when you've got a year like this one, where we've got liquidity that needs to come into the market, but more than that, everybody's underweight tech.
19:38I mean, the surveys come out from Bank of America all the time. It's like everyone's underweight tech. And so we know the year-end window dressing means I need to buy tech. And then only after - On the fund manager side, though? Or is that retail surely is long tech? Retail is massively long. It's all the hedge funds. hedge funds have a gigantic short on or hedge on and um and the mutual fund complex and pension funds are all underway crazy yeah you can feel the fomo in some of these stories at the moment um it i mean i i'm quite big in tesla and it it feels like the sort of thing where people are just waiting for an entry you know what i mean i love i love trades like that where you like you know you've got the right trade on people just are clamoring to get in on every single dip they How I think of it is the market is short, the upside calls, right?
20:29It's like the moment the market goes up, they all have to buy. And because they've got this mental thing that they could buy it lower and they can't, it's like that creates a great market. And on the altcoin side, have you been taken with any new stories recently? There's been the privacy narrative that's come back. That is interesting. Actually, I've got a call. Barry Silver reached out to me and said, let's talk about it. I want to know more about the Zcash thing. I think I understand it. It's a very clean narrative, and Mert has made it very clear on why. And I think, yes. But do I want to deal with the volatility and the speculation at this point for the privacy?
21:15It's like, do I want the investment or do I want the privacy? I'd rather have the privacy than the investment right now, because I don't know. and we've all had our hopes and dreams in Zcash a few times and it then fails. I was going to say, because it must have been around the last couple of cycles that you've been... Yeah, and it's always been interesting. And the other one that's been on my radar screen, again, because Barry mentioned it, Tau? Tau, yeah. Yeah, I'm pretty big in Tau at the moment. And that chart, the long-term chart looks good. I mean, Tau looks interesting. Now, I don't hold any of it.
21:52but yeah, those are two things that I would say are interesting. I've been very interested. I've done nothing. The only trades I've done the entire year was I bought some more in April, and I bought again last week. Right. My two biggest altcoins bags are Tau and Zcash. They're actually quite similar. They're both Bitcoin replicas. They've got a lot of… But are we worried that we're doing the same circle jerk on X again, where we all bull ourselves up into the same thing? That's what I'm worried about. I keep looking and saying, really, are we going to do this again? Is this dog with hats? And is it all the same?
22:34Very easily could be. I do think with both of those coins, what I would say is there's a broad buyer base in that you have ETH people who like them, you have Bitcoin people who like them, and then you have Solana people who like them, because they have a bit of everything for both of them. I would say that Tau has actually been a bit more ridiculed by mainstream CT than Zcash. Zcash was ridiculed, but then it feels like it's got more people behind it. Whereas Tau was like, oh, it's not building enough on the subnet layer. But I think that narrative has shifted and they've done some changes to the tokenomics.
23:09Have you watched the documentary yet? I watched it yesterday, yeah. I was going to watch it tonight with a glass of wine. It's definitely worth watching. like how it works is it's basically incentive layer for various different um it could be for anything but it's really been used for um for ai yeah but various different bits of ai basically um and you have subnets which are central um which are all doing a different thing so like one would be an llm one's like an image uh creator one does decentralized compute one does decentralized storage, all this sort of stuff. And whoever basically completes the task for that subnet the best gets rewarded.
23:51And then each of these subnets have their own token. And the relative prices of those tokens also directs how much of the emissions of Tau they get. So it's like this double layer of incentive distribution between both the protocols or the apps and then the people helping those apps achieve what they want to do. They're going to, I think, shift it away from the price actually to how much revenue each one's creating. But it's interesting. And I do think it's actually pretty novel. And I think they've got their halving, which is their first halving in about 40 days. So it's like, it just, it has that sort of stuff all coming together for it.
24:34So I've been looking at it and there's like barrier behind it as well. Like it kind of feels like those, those stories are picking up people who are not just Bitcoiners. Like they're like, Oh, I like this sort of story. Cause it has all the token design of Bitcoin, but does something slightly different. And Zcash is kind of the same. So I think both of those look strong in terms of altcoins. The L1s have been tough this year, if I'm honest. A lot of those stories, it felt like we just spoke about it with ETH, Solana, Hyperliquids. So Julian has a great thesis on this. He's like, basically, the demand for block space goes up when the business cycle improves.
25:17So you just don't have massively growing demand for block space right now. because consumers don't have that much money. They're not doing stuff. And so basically, it's very business cycle driven and the ISM is below 50. And I think that probably makes sense. It makes sense. It's just like cloud compute or whatever it is, right? It's just infrastructure. It's technological infrastructure. And when the economy is not humming fully, there's a bit of excess capacity still. I think that's probably fair. I think there's times where it feels as though we have far too many blockchains than we have space for them.
25:58I do think there's also been a slightly shift in how chains, the value that people perceive chains of right now, it's all about the apps now. Hyperliquid was the prime example of that, and that's been one of the L1s that's done well, but Solana's out there and totally is now creating a perp XFLA. It's now I think the founders of these chains are realizing they need sometimes these killer apps, which are sometimes linked to the chain themselves to really help drive revenue for the whole ecosystem. And maybe some of these didn't think they should get involved in that. ETH obviously has never been involved in anything like that, but it's become a bit more centralized.
26:42But some of the other more competing ones are now thinking, right, maybe we need to have our own stablecoin. Maybe we need to have our own perpdex. Maybe we need to have our own prediction market. Maybe we need to actually help co-build these things on our chain at the same time. The issue is I've got with all of that, and I see that everywhere, is we're just doing the same things everywhere. It's like somebody do something new here. Okay, prediction markets was new. Okay, great. But everybody else, they're just copying the same thing, moving DeFi from here to there to there. It's like, is somebody going to do something new and interesting?
27:22yeah look i i get what you're saying it has been it has been a little bit like everyone now wants to a perplex everyone now wants to a neobank everyone just see what stable coin some one thing works on one chain and everybody copies it i mean i guess that's normal but still there has been this interest i mean some of the more technical shifts there's obviously been this this um the payments protocol for ai that coinbase has helped in pushing recently x402 which I think could be relatively interesting. Maybe we'll see some interesting applications off the back of that. There's been some bullies around that over the last month or two, but I haven't seen that many new applications, let's say.
28:03So here's something that's been mulling my mind, and you'll have seen this. Every time you open OpenSea and your wallet is a gazillion base NFT copies, right? I don't know if you've seen that. It's just full of these NFTs, copies of x copy or whatever they're going to your wallet i'm like who the hell is doing it and why because it's it's at scale and it's it's somehow it's based making the numbers look good well i think base is as generally sided with the tokenize everything uh we can't have two little tokens sort of view like zora was their main was their main coin and that's like i think that tokenizes every single one of jesse polack's tweets is it's turned into a base coin i agree that like you get a lot of like digital junk in my opinion doing it this way and it makes it look like base has got more activity is my point real activity but it's not it's non-financialized non-financial activity oh for sure i think people i think that's been the case with a lot of blockchains for a while but yeah there's obviously a lot of junk going on a lot of um boosting of numbers around some of these chains.
29:16Base is going to be an interesting one. I think that will probably come at some point next year, but they have very good earnings again this week, but I do think that one could come in the tens of billions. I think JP Morgan... Should they have a token? Or should they just allow it to accrue to equity? I'm still not of the opinion that everybody should have a token. I've been speaking to a few VCs and that is now being like crypto VCs are kind of allergic to tokens. It feels like at the moment, they're like, oh, you know, you don't even need a token. No one needs a token. And it's interesting to see the 180 from like everyone should have a token for everything to that.
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30:02L2 tokens traditionally have not been great. Like there hasn't been a lot of value creation there. Honestly, most tokens haven't been great except L1, except L1s that survive. I mean, that's basically been the rule of thumb. Yeah. So my view, and this may be controversial because they kind of said no straight away, was that if base was to do a token and they really want to create value around it, they should have just done an L1 and gone down. The kind of route that Paradin's going down right now with their L1 and like try to put a, I know it's not novel, but like, I think they could have created something valuable, at least for their shareholders.
30:37I just, the L2 thing, yeah, I don't know. I feel like at some stage they may spin it out in the future. I'm not ruling that out either. But I don't think they necessarily need a token too. I don't really know what that token does. That token does. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. I mean, you can say that for so many L1s now in the world of stablecoins.
31:18This is why I'm trying to say there's this shift back towards having to get revenue from the apps and somehow linking it back to the chain itself. L1s, I do think, are going through a slight existential crisis now with stablecoins and just they are in some ways a better form of currency after, let's say. See, I don't think about the L1s as currencies outside of Bitcoin. Right. I just think of them as a token share of the value of the network. It's a technology. I think the whole currency thing just screws their heads. heads, you can't have 50 ,000 currencies you're transacting. This is stupid.
32:04We transact in the real life, in the US dollar, a stable coin, or a euro, whatever it is. Our digital store of value collateral is Bitcoin. And then these are the networks that operate. And it's more akin to owning shares than it is owning a currency. But we never were allowed to use those terms because the SEC would put us in prison. But that's really what it is, the share of network. And the revenue is just the gas fees paid in that world? Because they're all priced by Metcalfe's law. So Metcalfe's law is the number of active users and then the total value transacted on the network. So it's applications, it's DeFi, it's stable coins, it's all of the things.
32:51It's network fees, but it's definitely not fees. This This is the mid-curve discounted cash flow way of looking at it. It's nonsense. All of these things are Metcalfe's law. No, I get what you're saying. I just feel like DeFi with native L1s is kind of moving away. DeFi, this cycle, has really been about stable coins and revenue from, let's say, protocols or other, more risky elements of trading. The idea of yield farming with the L1, it feels like it's gone away from that. That's why I kind of feel like these stablecoins have actually had a bit of a shout again. So stablecoins add value to the network layer because you're transacting either small or large transactions, right?
33:40Tether does huge transactions, and that gives Tron its value. There's no other value to Tron except the fact that this massive network keeps transacting enormous volumes on it. So I do think that there's plenty of long-term holders of these underlying assets and they want to do stuff. Like in equities, you can lend your equities out into the loan markets or you can borrow against equities. It's the same thing. And we've got that in, you know, but right now people don't have a lot of money and so you kind of make a choice yeah yeah i think i hope that l1s come back with this like a lot of the other sectors have not really done well i do feel like l1s is something that if bitcoin breaks back through all-time highs those will be i mean they were they were all trading amazing very recently because you had the whole etf narrative coming through for all of them and it really felt like it was going to be Bitcoin's ETF narrative come back for ETH, which is then going to now be Solana, which could then be SUI, I, you know, all the major L1s were going to have this.
34:45That's like you drifted away. What do you make of that trade now as well? Like, if you've seen, but strategy is now trading at its 18-month low for its NNAV, it's down 60 % versus Bitcoin since the start of the year. So if you look at it across the board, it's telling you there's no money flowing in. Look at the growth of stable coins. It's been stable since the summer. So we've got no money coming into the crypto economy. So over time, people need to pay bills, realize stuff, and foundations need to sell tokens and all of those things. And the number go down because we've not had liquidity in the crypto economy.
35:23So I just don't want to confuse that with it's the death of layer ones it's the nothing's going to work defy is not going to have it's like no it's just a slow economy right now in crypto land we've gone through a slow patch that's that's how i think about it so i don't know you're not worried about this dat trainer whining there was east yellow which sold 40 million eth this week which is the first of the eth that's to come in i think the big one it's n nav i think the big ones know what they're doing and the smaller ones could get messy. I mean, I've never liked this DAT trade. In the end, a few people will figure it out, but it's so complicated.
36:04But anybody can understand the capital structure of microstrategies without some PhD in nuclear physics. I mean, it's so ridiculous. And yeah, I just think there's no such thing as free money generally. And as soon as people think there's free money, everything goes to shit and you were never approached by that i feel like you would have been i got approached by by some i got approached by outside of the eth and micro strategies i got approached by pretty much every single one yeah i can imagine and to lead them and i'm like i'm not going on the board of a u.s company i live in the cayman islands it's tax-free i'm not doing that and uh and also i'm like i don't really i'm not really comfortable with these now again they're not terrible and people will figure it out but i think we have to go through some some pain in these but also the dats are showing you there's not much money flowing into the crypto economy either so the premium ability has gone down as well so it's it's telling us something about liquidity flows in markets yeah i agree that that is really a speculation trade as well right like when when everything starts to trade at like one and a half to two times then now it's when everyone thinks crypto is about to change the world and we're about to do all these crazy things on the equity side of the business.
37:25I think it could get a little bit messier with some of these lower quality ones. I do think that luckily, all the biggest stats are trading fine. Like Bitmine is trading fine. Sharplink, I still think is trading okay. I'm talking about relative to the MNav here, maybe not outright stock price. And Microfresh, she's still trading above one. You know, it's still trading above one. So the trade can still go. But yeah, for some of the smaller ones. I saw today that 10 % of all of ETH's supply has now been bought by the DATS and by the ETF. ETFs. How insane is that? And it's still only briefly touched an all-time high.
38:12And this trade has really gone on for the last six months. I had a thesis from the last cycle that this cycle would end up having a shortage of ETH because of the burn mechanism. And then if you start locking up ETH like this in vehicles that aren't going to sell very quickly, you end up with a shortage of the stuff. So it gets very convex. So it feels like it could do that. It kind of breaks 5 ,000 before we know it's trading 10 in like a month. I mean, holding 10%. And this kind of started happening in May. Maybe April, we started to see such a big inflow happening into the ETF. So the 10 % of the whole supply to be bought in roughly six months, less.
39:06If that can continue even somewhat, even just the ETF side of the business. So 10 % moved it, put the percentages on from the bottom to the peak? Yeah, to be fair, from around the time we started to see big ETF inflows, it's around 1 ,500, I would say. So it did go about 3x. So 3x, so 300%. So there's your gearing, right? 10%, and you accumulate 10%, the market goes up 300%. 200%, yeah. 200%, yeah. Yeah, I guess so. I guess so. I think in some ways you can see that as slightly bearish that it wasn't able to keep, it gets all the time high, but it also only happened in five or six months. And I think the ETS, I think the DAT trade, as we've just said, probably goes through a bit more of a challenging period here, but I think the ETS will come back.
40:01They'll come back as soon as you start to get some FOMO again in Bitcoin. I think you'll get a comeback in the ETS. And we also know what a supermassive black hole crypto is for investors the moment it starts really accelerating. Because the returns dwarf even the tech stocks. And it starts sucking capital in. All of the traders come back from trading equities. The equity guys have their eye on crypto. And now they've got ETFs to trade. It starts becoming a much bigger thing. I do think we'll see that reversal of attention. Because the markets can only carry so much attention with only so much money in the market right now.
40:39Yeah, exactly. Exactly. I think we'll definitely have that. There'll be a rotation of attention back to crypto. I think gold, I think I expected that when gold kind of sold off and it didn't, which again made me think, right, we're still in this four-year cycle, technical sell-off for a little bit, but it does look like an outlier very much so at the moment. I feel like gold's going to go again. I love gold. I think gold's already going higher. Yeah, I think it's going to go higher. And I think of gold as Bitcoin six months ahead. And if that is the case, if that continues, then the higher gold goes for longer, the further the rally extends into next year for crypto.
41:22That's how I look at it. I have always been a little bit surprised at that. There's two different camps in crypto, which is like, we hate gold. We've got the better gold. And the other one, which is, oh, this is like our friendly cousin that rallies for the same reasons that we do. I'm definitely in the second camp of like, I like it when gold goes higher because I think it's good for Bitcoin. But there's some people who are like, oh, I think it's obviously because there are certain characters in the gold community that hate Bitcoin that it leads to that. The gold community, there's so many curmudgeons in it.
41:56That's the problem is like... Curmudgeon? I've never heard of that before. Curmudgeon. It's like miserable old gits. Oh, right. Angry old man shaking fists at Scott. yeah yeah pizza chef i mean basically that and it's full of them um but you're right gold does a job which is to maintain store of value over time and it's done it brilliantly you know it basically rises with the amount of debasement of currency there is on a global basis perfect yeah i i look at it now and i kind of feel like that isn't our only chart for the next few years. But you see, you go over to the goal crowd with your arms open wide and say, come to me, brother, and they just kick you in the nuts and walk off.
42:39Yeah, that is it. That is it. And I think some people have tried for too long to do it. So I see there is the pool table behind you with the banana on it. What is your banana zone prediction now for the next 18 months? You think, you Yeah, I mean, look, it's very misunderstood. When we talked about the banana zone, we said, right, the phase two starts. It started in April, and it went up. Everything doubled or tripled from then, and then pulled back. And we've got this weird liquidity period. I just think nothing changes. The market, I'm very bullish. I think it goes up a lot over the next 12 months based on liquidity in the Everything Code framework.
43:32And so nothing really has changed for me. The only thing that sometimes changes is time horizon. It's like, well, I didn't expect the government to shut down for the longest period in history, but we've got to deal with that. And that means they can't draw down the TGA. Okay, we need to deal with that. But other than that, I mean, when I just look at these markets, you know, my, you know, let's go share a chart here.
44:00where are we? So if I just look at, you know, SUI, that's my main position still. It's, as you said, it's just been in this, it's a year, it's exactly a year. It's been at the same price, but we, it went up to five and a half and it's been down to wherever that got down to 1.65, but it's just choppy. And when I see patterns like this, usually they resolve higher. 70 % of the time. So there's a 30 % chance it doesn't and the market's topped and we're all morons. That's fine. I've lived with that before enough times in my life. But when I look at something like that, it looks just pretty obvious.
44:40And Solana, it's just pretty obvious. Yeah. To me, it's just knowing what we know about the macro, looking at those charts, looking at Ethereum, I mean, these are nice charts. Yeah, they show ranging for a period of time, which we realize in crypto, you just have to have insane patience because the real gains are made in two or three months where you haven't given up. And realized volatility in Bitcoin and ETH is like in the 20s and 30s. Yeah. So historic vols are super low. Implied vols are actually pretty low as well now, about 40 or whatever. so things like ibit calls for the year-end rally talking about see some call spreads that's what's in my head that's what's in my head we put some on we put some on for gmi last month but i'm like i can't see a reason why i wouldn't add to that trade because you buy some calls you lose a couple of percent fuck we deal with that every day i'm in the market going up and down nobody cares so you're sticking a couple of percent on the ibit calls to get it right you can make some serious money.
45:55Because if you look at the back-end rallies, if they come, it's generally about 100 % in it. You can do this on prediction markets too, though, as well, right? I know calls is one way, but prediction markets kind of have that option-like aspect. Well, let's see if we can pull it up. Let's see. There's some, I think, because MicroStrategy is still calling for this 150K by year-end trade. I think Polymarket has a line there, maybe 150K if I type it in. Yeah, so you will get, I mean it's only a 13 % odds that it will hit 150k by December 31st so that's I mean that's 7x that's a 7x 7.5x if you get it right that's a very attractive bet right that's a pretty good bet I've been looking at this because volatility has come down because that basically people don't realize is the prediction mark is basically binary options yeah they're binary options Now, I don't know whether that's cheaper or more expensive.
46:55Let me see if I can bring up the IBEC calls. I'm sure some people are. I know a bunch. I mean, apparently the top liquidity providers on things like Polymarket, particularly for this sort of stuff, is like Susquehanna. So they're properly priced. But I'm not sure that we understand this. And is there arbitrage of it? so they need to make proper markets or is it ripping off retail with bad odds? Well, it's kind of like Betfair in that you're only facing against somebody else. So you're not taking huge margin on any of the trades. So I actually think the pricing is probably relatively good, if I'm honest.
47:37But I think any arbitrage between that and where it's trading in the options market is probably dealt with. Similarly on sportsbooks, like they've got pretty good people like coming in and providing the quality for the sports books too. So you're starting to get pretty good, pretty good options essentially with these products. Okay. So I'm just looking at the IBIC calls. Let's change the strike price to$150K by December 31st. And it's 13%. That is basically a seven and a half to AX, right? Yeah. How many options are going to give you that? That seems good. I know. That's what I've been saying.
48:20This is the trade that Everest Capital used to put on every year. It's the same trade. The market underprices it bizarrely every time, and I don't know why. And even if it doesn't work out, you stick a small amount in, then you're fine. That's all you lose. You lose your premium. Yeah, put 10 grand on that. 8x if you're right. And obviously you have the chance to trade out of it. Like, the polymarket is relatively liquid, but you can trade out of it. And you've got 25 to 1 for 170s. I don't think there's been a rally less than 70 % in these kind of crypto years. So it's cheap. Yeah. I actually think you've hit the nail on the head, though.
49:11like this prediction market where they, because increasingly people are doing prediction markets around the price of major crypto assets. And I think there's going to be some decent opportunities there. And you can do who are not pricing these correctly or. Well, you can also do, you can do call spreads in those, can't you? Essentially. You probably could. Yeah. Yeah. Buy and sell. Buy and sell. Yeah. Yeah. She could probably get that bet even cheaper. Yeah. Yeah, you could even do call spreads in terms of timing as well. Calendar calls, yeah. Calendar calls, yeah. People have no idea what we're talking about, but I can tell by your face you're now nerding out on the idea.
49:56Yeah, of course. You could do this. You could do this for sure. Maybe I should spend the day doing some calendar calls. You should definitely do that for Real Vision, just for fun. I'm sure even if you don't understand options, This is very simple for people to understand, I think. Yeah, much easier than an option because you just... Way easier. You know you stick in a grand, and if you lose it, you lose your grand. And if not, you make seven grand. Okay, fine. It's easy to understand. You need to hire an options guy to come in here and do Polymarket. That'd be good content, I think, for Real Vision.
50:32I've kind of... It's really interesting. I hadn't thought about using Polymarket for market so much as other events. Sure, like Bitcoin, ETH, all the major, they're basically doing this on, between Cauchy and Polymarket. A good options person would know what to do with British. And can we use our crypto to use them, or do we have to use cash? I mean, you'll be pleased to know that Cauchy accepted Sui stablecoins and Sui from yesterday, I think. Oh, so you can... So you can... Alshie and Polymarket both accept most chains now. Plus they have integrations into the major wallets now. So you can do it via certain wallet providers.
51:18It's very easy now to do this sort of stuff. I like this. Your face is hilarious. You're just going, I need to look at this. Why not? I like to have a little flutter. Let's see what we can do here. There's definitely money to be made. I don't know if you can do it in massive size is what I'm saying. You wouldn't be able to put on millions of dollars here. But if you're just looking for some fun stuff that you could put out, and particularly if your portfolio, you want to just keep some Bitcoin or you want to keep some of your major spot assets, but you have that DG energy, you don't want to do it in meme coins, maybe this is what you do your DG stuff in.
51:55So here's another question for you. Do you think if the cycle is extended, Bitcoin gets to$250 ,000? I think Bitcoin's up only, man. I just don't, I'm not, I'm not as big. Like when I zoom out on most major assets since 2008, I don't see cycles in them, particularly if you smooth them out on like quarterly performance. Yeah. Monthly, you have these like horrific wicks, which then just get dealt with QE. But like my honest view is if you have a zoom out chart of Bitcoin in 10 years time, like it's just up and to the right. I mean, it's the Amazon charts, the same, and Microsoft's the charts. They're all the same.
52:34Just keep going. So the reason I ask is, talking about prediction market, we've got this super cool promo going on with Devan. You've met the Devan guys, the wine people. So what they're doing, they're going to run a competition on Real Vision, and they're doing it, I think, with Animoca as well. But we get a limited amount, which is, it's all about wine, obviously. So what we've got is, it's called Bubbles for Bubbles. And if Bitcoin hits 250 ,000, it triggers something. So you buy a bottle of this wine. It's incredible grower champagne. So fancy champagne, the kind of stuff that I like. You pay 150 bucks for it, which is undervalued for the quality of the wine.
53:16Then that bottle is a smart wine. So the smart wine has an AI agent attached to it that tells you all about the wine, um its journey everything that goes with it it's got a digital cork technology which is when it's opened you register it the bottle is now been registered been opened by you etc and it creates a community around wine owners and connects them to the vineyards um and so there's kind of this whole digital deed of ownership of wines and stuff that goes on tons of stuff the bottle does that So it's the first smart bottle ever. And we've done some cool shit with Devan. What we're doing is if it hits 250 ,000, everybody opens at the same time and creates this community.
54:02So everyone celebrates the bubble. Yeah. Bubbles. So that's kind of fun. And then somebody, one of the winners, will get a$50 ,000 rare wine portfolio tokenized, which they can do what they want, because Devan does that too. It's got the infrastructure and the rails to tokenize not only bottles of wine in the logistics journey, in the drinking journey, but also in the trading of wines. So all sorts of cool stuff integrated with AI. So there's 3 ,000 of these bottles left. You've got five days before it opens to the public. So Real Vision gets it first. Let me just read out what we're supposed to do.
54:44go to smartwine.ai and use the passcode 42421, which is a bizarre passcode. smartwine.ai 42421. I'm definitely going to be buying some wine because A, I like to grow a champagne and B, I'd like the$50 ,000 of rare wine and say it's kind of fun. It's like a whole kind of chat amongst members when we hit 250. So it's just a side. I'm a big wine and whiskey investor. I've been very, very big in it. They never approached me. They approached OSF. They approached you. Really? Ivan, trust me, I'm deep in this game. Okay, so David will be watching this, as will Jana. And they'll hit you up. If you're a big into wine, because I've done so much with them, with GMI, with RVIP, everything.
55:37And I just love what they're doing. And the tokenization of wine, the whole wine infrastructure, the trading of it, it's just a big deal. And then the integration of AI, I mean, everyone's doing this, is the blockchain AI nexus. It's all coming together. So anyway, Real Vision people, grab some of the wine. You can only allow it up to six bottles. And you'll be able to drink it all when it hits to 250 ,000. You can drink it when you want. And you might get more. That is a binary option. That's probably, I don't know how that's priced. Let's think this thing through, actually. So if this were a binary option, you're paying 100 and, here we go.
56:11you're paying 150 bucks for a one in 3 000 chance of fifty thousand dollars and then there's also oh there's like 50 memberships to club divan as well um so it's basically free it's basically free it's basically free free option to basically a hundred guarantee yeah uh i mean i'm a salesman for this already uh we should get to i think we also have some um some questions from the audience. Let me see if I can. We just kept chatting amongst ourselves. I know. I tend to do this occasionally and then I get shouted at. Well, I haven't caught up with you in ages, so it's just like, it's good to have a chat.
56:55No, there's, yeah, of course, of course. Well, we haven't had an all-time high for a while, so. I've also not seen you in person for ages. I know, I've been around. I have, but we've been in a lot of NFT events. I thought you were going to be in Singapore, but you weren't there. And I was in Korea before that. And then there hasn't been a Real Vision event. No, that's coming up. Everyone will get the announcement shortly. It may have just been announced. It's going to be in January. I'll come to that. In Miami. That'll be amazing. I was just in Miami, but I'll come again. I was at the art event in Marfa, which was fun.
57:34Oh, you did that. Oh, yeah. we uh myself and my girlfriend um hosted the big friday night party oh wow it was hilarious we had artists like die with the most likes doing a karate exhibition as alfonso newtson oh i think i saw videos of that yeah we had people's robot and people all these artists were in a connect four competition to see he was the world's greatest artist at connect four we did all sorts of stupid shit we had all sorts of fun and martha is that gonna be the final one or are we gonna do it again No, they're doing it again. Oh, we're going to do it again. Okay, cool. I didn't know if that was like, because it was the end of the curated series that that was it, but awesome.
58:12Yeah, maybe I'll come to that next time. I know OSF went to one. Yeah, it's really fun. Right, I've got the questions. So... Go for it. That's an interesting one. Anthony on RV website, given the pace of AI innovation, have you thought about what happens when aging is effectively solved? Longevity tech seems to be advancing fast. How do you see the world functioning when lifespan is no longer a constraint? You've been exploring this a little bit recently. Yeah, a lot. The issue I've got with this one, the answer you have to answer all of this stuff is, I don't know. What happens when we live to 150 years old, but there's no work to be done?
58:50I mean, I don't really know what that means and how it affects economies. Because at that stage, we were in an abundance economy because of AI and robots. So we don't need to work. So it's weird. I don't know. that's what we talk about all day on the exponentialist, which is that the other products on real vision, where we talk about this stuff. I did my metabolic age last week. Actually, we did a whole blood test VO two max scans, everything. Um, what were you 72 year old man? I came back at 26. Wow. Yeah. Uh, so I gained like eight years, but, um, my whoop tells me that I, I'm only like one year.
59:32So, uh, but yeah, I was pleased with that. I enrolled in Fountain Life, which is the Peter Diamandis, Tony Robbins longevity clinics. And you go there, it's expensive, it's like 20 grand. But you go there, they do like every test possible that you could ever imagine. State of car, all with AI stuff built into everything. And then you've got your concierge of doctors and advisors and specialists. And it's really amazing. whether it means I live longer or not, it's a different matter. I love this stuff. I think it's great. I think it's cool. You feel good afterwards anyway. Yeah, I agree. I don't really know where life goes when that sort of stuff happens.
1:00:15I'm just hoping that it happens. Okay. We already spoke about that.
1:00:25More details on the IBIC calls, please. Where would you buy IBIC calls? So they're on the CBOE. I'm guessing. Yeah. Or NASDAQ. Actually, I don't know. Let me have a look. So I'm looking at... There's big crypto platforms you can do this with, though, right? Like D-Ribbit, which I think was bought by one of the makers. D-Ribbit, that's right. But these are just basically, you buy them on Robinhood, right? Yeah, you can buy them. Very forwards. Robinhood. I would look for like, buy the 30 Delta calls out for January, because as we both said, it probably goes out to Jan. Where's the Delta? I can't sit in here.
1:01:0130 Delta 30 Delta buys you the 73 calls and Ibit's at 62 yeah I mean I just look at those things and they cost 2 % yeah it's not much pretty nice yeah it's not much they're cheap and volatility as I said is like 48 or something and usually this stuff shows at 70 yeah that I would say that crypto vol looks cheap, given what I think is going to happen at the end of this year. Which is that Kelsey trade. Because, I mean, that trade is, that's the easiest one to do, is the 150 strike of the... Whatever happens, the four-year cycle is over in December. You've got to assume that we have some sort of a breakout.
1:01:59Okay, I think that's it. I think that's it. We have, oh, maybe one more. We have Robert saying loves the banana. You've racked with the pool balls. And then Richard has said, why did Raoul choose Denia at Costa Blanca as the reason to relocate to Spain? Denia. Denia. Choose Denia in the Costa Blanca. I went near there recently. I messaged you, didn't I? Yeah, that's right. Why did I choose that? because a friend of my parents had a house for sale in a town called Gandia, which I ended up buying. And it was before 9-11. I could commute backwards and forwards to Spain on weekends and stuff. And then I ended up buying a place.
1:02:41My parents had moved to a town called Javier. And so I bought a house there. It's just a very nice area. I liked it. Yeah. Yeah, it's nice out there. It's more authentic, I tend to find, than some of the other areas of Spain I've been to recently. Yeah, it's nice. i went to san sebastian though recently as well i like that a lot that's very nice but it's starting to get overrun with americans it's the kind of whole anthony bourdain effect that it's like on so many tv shows now that everybody goes hey we gotta go to san sebastian it's like yeah you know sure yeah i don't i didn't necessarily get the feeling that the sense like the natives liked the tourists that much no i mean i went you know i've been many times over the years and the last time I went was two summers ago and it was, you couldn't even get into any of the good places.
1:03:28Not even a three star Michelin restaurant just the nice pinch of spas. You couldn't even get in. It was just crawling with tourists and it's like not good. Not cool anymore. But Valencia, you went to Valencia didn't you? Yeah that's what I said, I liked it. I was only there for one night but I've been there before. It's got a nice vibe to it. It just feels like it's a well structured town. I could live around there Yeah it's a bit Lisbon-y but like a Spanish element it's a great place it's got mountains, it's got sea and you're across the water from Ibiza Perfect Speaking my language Okay Well this is it Rao Thanks so much for coming on I guess we'll book it for late November, early December the next one Obviously obviously so I can come just have me in the back of the mind hanging by the goal ready to just tap it in and take the glory we'll put on all the polymarket trades and say that they all they all hit by that point all right well it's great to have you on and enjoy the little Cayman and we'll see you again soon yeah all right mate great to see you take care everyone have a great weekend bye guys finance is the world's number one crypto exchange over 275 million users already trust their world-class security Binance makes starting crypto as simple as it should be.
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1:05:30Download Binance today and get started in minutes. Binance is not available in certain countries, including the US. Check its terms for more. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas, and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet.
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