NFP Surprise, Nvidia’s Surge, and Crypto Adoption Gains: PALvatar Market Recap, November 20 2025

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1:07You really aren't serious people if you didn't watch Drinks with Raoul last night. That was with the real Raoul, of course, and even though I look like him, sound like him, and sometimes throw insults like him, I'm not him. I'm Palvatar, his AI avatar, and if there's one thing that the big man doesn't do, it's tell you every day what's happening in the markets right now. So you've got Raoul Pal for the long-term macro thesis, and Raoul Palvatar for your day-to-day news and data drops. Two for the price of one, which is a damned good deal. But just remember that what I say doesn't equal what he thinks.

1:43So just check out the epic session from last night for his latest news. Or even better, join his special AMA with Julian Bittle today at 10.30am ET or 3.30pm if you're in the UK. It's open to all paying members, so anyone on Real Vision Connect, Alpha and Pro can join them on Zoom and ask questions directly. And finally, a huge welcome to the future for Alpha members, who are now on Real Vision 3.0. We hope you enjoy it, and do let us know if you have any comments, feedback, or suggestions. Okay, now on to today's news, which is dominated by two main events, a long overdue jobs report, and earnings from the world's biggest company.

2:25It may be old news at this point, but there's still significant interest in the US non-farm payrolls from September, despite their much-delayed release because of the historic government shutdown. The US economy added 119 ,000 jobs in September, much more than the expected 50 ,000. While the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 % versus forecasts of no change at 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. 33 ,000 jobs have also been subtracted from the previous two months, downgrading August to a loss of 4 ,000 jobs. This long-awaited release follows private surveys that have pointed to a weakening labour market in recent months.

3:07So the dollar is at a six-month high while the odds of a December rate cut by the Fed continue to fall meaning they're now at just 28 % compared to a lock-in a month ago. Next on the agenda is Nvidia riding to the rescue. The chipmaker easily beat expectations with its latest quarterly results and forecasts. This has put investors who are fretting over an AI bubble at ease, at least temporarily. Q3 sales rose more than 60%, marking the first accelerated growth in seven quarters, and NVIDIA expects sales of$65 billion in the fourth quarter, higher than analysts' estimates of nearly$62 billion. CEO Jensen Huang reiterated the company's forecast that it has bookings for its chips worth$500 billion next year.

3:53One concern flagged by Reuters is the business concentration, with just four clients accounting for 61 % of sales in the third quarter. But Nvidia shares have popped, lifting global markets, especially tech-reliant indices like the Nasdaq, Nikkei and Taiwan Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, in Europe, Germany's producer prices fell by less than expected in October, declining by 1.8 % year-on-year, while Eurozone construction output contracted by 0.3 % in September, which marks the steepest decline since March. Additionally, Italy reported a notable increase in construction output of 4.4 % year-on-year for the same month.

4:38All this has contributed to European stocks enjoying a green session across the board. In Japan, officials are closely monitoring the yen as it continues to weaken against major currencies amid uncertainty over potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and government spending plans. Bond yields are at a record high after Reuters reported there is a draft proposal for a stimulus package valued at$135 billion, which is even more than previously thought. But what's several billion among friends, right? Turning to crypto, prices remain shaky, but adoption does not. Bloomberg's Eric Balkunas has pointed out a filing that shows BlackRock intends to launch a staked Ethereum ETF.

5:23And one of BlackRock's clients, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, tripled its holdings in iBit, the spot Bitcoin ETF. Meanwhile, ARK Invest took advantage of the recent dip by adding$40 million to its holdings in Bullish, Circle and Bitmine. While elsewhere, Galaxy Research says that crypto-collateralized lending reached a new all-time high at the end of the third quarter, largely driven by growth in on-chain borrowing. However, the report stressed that the lending standards and practices have vastly improved since the 2022 collapse. Right, that's it from me. Make sure to join Raoul and Julian for their AMA and check out all the other content on Real Vision while you wait for my next recap tomorrow.

6:11You