Nvidia Earnings, U.S. Data Resurgence, Japan’s Slowdown & Crypto Turbulence: PALvatar Market Recap, November 17 2025

0:06Hi everyone. Hope you had a restful weekend after a rather bruising week in the markets. Here at Real Vision, we're hard at work on a new version of our website and the upcoming crypto gathering in Miami. Details are at realvision.com slash crypto gathering if you're interested in finding out more. Now, I wouldn't be Palvatar, Raoul's fancy AI alter ego, if I didn't equip you with the latest market headlines. Just don't take what I say as his views. He'll share those in an InFocus report tomorrow and a special AMA with Julian Bittle on Thursday, open to all paying members. We have heard your concerns about what's happening in the markets, and we are making our experts available to answer your questions over the coming weeks.

0:47Now, on to today's news. All eyes are on NVIDIA this week as the chip behemoth reports its earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Expectations are high, and a miss could have grave implications for AI stock valuations that some investors already worry are overvalued. Also, the US economic data fog caused by the government shutdown is finally dispersing, albeit with significantly delayed data at first. Construction spending numbers for August are out today, factory orders are due tomorrow, an update on international trade is now scheduled for Wednesday, and the September jobs report will finally see daylight on Thursday.

1:24The Empire State Manufacturing Survey will also shed some light on the economy today. Expectations for a December rate cut have plummeted from a near certainty a month ago to just 45 % now, as per CME's FedWatch tool. Looking beyond the US, Japan's GDP fell by 0.4 % in the three months through September compared to the previous quarter and 1.8 % on an annualised basis. This was the first contraction in six quarters, however it was smaller than anticipated. The impact of US tariffs on exports was the main drag. The recovery should be aided by capital spending, which outgrew forecasts at 1 % versus the expected 0.3%.

2:05A separate data release on industrial production also suggests a potential rebound ahead. It rose 2.6 % month over month in September, exceeding expectations and marking not only the first expansion since June, but also the fastest since March 2024. The government is also reportedly planning to boost the economy. Yields on very long-term Japanese bonds reached a 26-year high, following a Nikkei report of plans for a$110 billion stimulus program. Staying in Japan, shares of companies that rely on tourist spending have been hit by a row between Tokyo and Beijing following Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi's comments.

2:44China has urged its citizens not to visit Japan after Takaichi said that a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan would threaten Japan's existence and thus trigger a military response. Reuters says this broke with a tradition of Japanese politicians not discussing such a scenario publicly. A Japanese diplomat arrived in Beijing today for conciliatory talks. In Europe, Italy's annual inflation slowed to 1.2 % in October from 1.6 % in September, driven by a decline in energy prices and softer increases in food costs. Bitcoin fell below$94 ,000 to its lowest level since May over the weekend, taking its weekly loss to more than 10%, the worst since March.

3:27Notably, it experienced a so-called death cross when the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average. ETH wasn't far off$3 ,000, and SOL dipped to$135. Thankfully, they all bounced back this morning. One token in the spotlight today is MONAD, which is opening up a sale on Coinbase ahead of the mainnet launch next week. It's not a great day for crypto from an image perspective, though. The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, famous for its Panama Papers reporting, has accused major crypto exchanges of profiting from proceeds linked to organized crime like money laundering, drug trafficking, and North Korean hacking.

4:09There you have it. You're up to speed and ready to take on whatever the week throws at us. Join Andreas and Mikkel as they dissect the macro and geopolitical landscape in Macro Mondays, and Chris is back in the land of charts with Bijan. I'll see you tomorrow.