Nvidia’s $100B AI Bet, Global PMI Divergence, and Fed Cut Odds: PALvatar Market Recap, September 23 2025

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1:34views and analysis while I deal with the latest headlines. So without further ado, let's dig in. AI, PMI and the Fed are the names of the game today. Starting with the first one, the market celebrated the announcement that NVIDIA would invest up to$100 billion in OpenAI, one of its largest clients. The FT reports that if the full sum materializes, it would be the largest ever investment in a private company. The excitement was enough to push NVIDIA stock 4 % higher and broader US stocks to record highs yesterday, while global markets are also firmly in the green today. The Nikkei is closed for a holiday in Japan, but the Korean and Taiwanese exchanges took the mantle and hit records.

2:18So did gold, reaching more than$3 ,750 per ounce as it continued its hot streak. We've also got a slew of the purchasing managers' indices updates from S &P Global, so let's go through the numbers. I'll start more broadly before looking into specific countries. As always with these, a reading of 50 separates growth from contraction, and these are flash estimates, so they might still be revised. Business activity in the Eurozone has reached levels not seen since early 2023. The HCOB composite PMI, which combines services and manufacturing output activity, came in 51.2 in September, up from 51 in August, marking a ninth consecutive month of growth.

3:02However, this was largely driven by services which came in 51.4. Output growth slowed to only a marginal increase while employment continued to decline, extending the job-cutting trend that began in June 2023. Business confidence in the sector weakened as well, to the lowest level so far this year. The wider manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.5, missing expectations of a repeat of the August reading of 50.7. It's a story of two of the largest Eurozone economies going down very different paths. Let's start with the more positive one, Germany. The HCOB composite PMI beat expectations to grow to 52.4 in September from 50.5 in August.

3:46Again, the service's PMI was the bright spot, confounding expectations of another decline after the one in August. However, manufacturing activity unexpectedly accelerated its contraction, signalling declining orders and employment concerns within that sector. There's little silver lining in France, where both services and manufacturing sectors continued their contraction streaks. Composite PMI sank to a five-month low of 48.4, and manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction after expanding in August. This reflects ongoing weak demand, as political uncertainties dampened business confidence.

4:23Elsewhere, the UK's private sector output slowed to the lowest level since May. Composite PMI came in at an estimated 51 for September, with manufacturing output once again weighing it down. Inflation is not going to help. The OECD says the UK will have the highest price increases out of all G7 economies this year. Meanwhile, India's private sector expansion has also lost some steam this month. The HSBC composite flash PMI fell to 61.9 after hitting a multi-year high in August. Of course, it's the kind of growth that Britain and the Eurozone can only dream of at the moment. Not all parts of the Indian economy are showing such strength, though.

5:05The local currency, the rupee, fell to an all-time low against the US dollar after President Donald Trump announced higher fees on work visas. We'll get the US PMI from S &P Global today while Japan's comes tomorrow. We'll also hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after four governors spoke on Monday. Reuters recap says President Trump's new pick Stephen Myron called for big cuts, but three other officials sounded cautious on inflation. CME's FedWatch tool has 90 % odds of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 73 % chance of another one in December. Looking at crypto, traders are licking their wounds after Monday's sell-off wiped out leveraged bets.

5:47Clearly, they didn't follow Raoul's don't fuck this up rules. In terms of industry news, we have the first Bitcoin treasury company merger announced after Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive Asset Management agreed to buy Semler Scientific in an all-stock deal. The combined company will hold nearly 11 ,000 Bitcoin. Valuations of multiple treasury companies have been under strain in recent weeks. Additionally, the Financial Times reports that YZI Labs, the investment firm run by Binance co-founder CZ, plans to eventually open up to outside investors. The fund manages$10 billion in investments. Oof, OK. Today was a long one, but you're well set for the day.

6:27I'll speak with you again tomorrow. Take care.