Raoul Gives an Update on Crypto, Macro, AI | REKT Vision, April 10, 2026

28:18Now, what does it do to jobs? It's quite hard to replace a plumber. It's not very hard to replace a plumber's knowledge. In fact, when a plumber comes to my house and he's like, oh, I'm not quite sure, I'll just take a picture on ChatGPT and say, how do you fix this? And it knows. I did it with the electrician as well. It makes him feel a bit stupid, but it works. Or the bloke comes around to fix your fridge because it's broken. and he's going, oh, I don't know about this, mate. You're going to need all these parts. I just asked ChatGPT. He's like, no, it's not true. Although ChatGPT sent me down some long rabbit holes of trying to fix stuff, which were completely wrong as well.

28:53So it's not like it knows everything. So I don't know. The structure of everything changes. After 2030, it becomes a lot weirder, where we don't even know what financial markets become anymore, when most of the participants are non-humans. with different economic motives, different time horizons, different ability to assimilate information. So what is a financial market? Do we end up sports betting to keep ourselves more interested? How good are they going to be at watching TV screens of a football game and putting the odds on versus humans? Don't know. So there has to be in-person betting where it's not televised.

29:31Who the fuck knows what we'll end up doing? But humans are highly adaptive, the most adaptive species of all. And Ray Kurzweil's idea is the economic singularity, which is 2040. It's not very long away. It's something like that. I think it's 2040. It's when we actually merge with the machines. Everyone's doing it already. People are wearing Apple Watches or Aurora rings or talking to your chat GPT or your Claude about your health. And we're already merging with the machines. And we know that we've seen it from Neuralink. it'll be implanted within us. So then we all become part of the machines and the machines become part of us.

30:15Oh, man, that's a movie. That's the movie script right there. I think it's interesting too, because I always see the plumbers, the blue collar jobs, working with your hands, they're not going anywhere. But I think of your conversations with Jordy Visser and all that, how we're moving from software into hardware. Now, imagine when you have those Tesla robots walking around and you put Claude's brain inside of it. Imagine the super plumber that that's going to be. RAOUL PAL, Well, that's, again, people don't get their heads around this because they think of R2-D2 and C-3PO, and they think it's going to make them coffee and do that ironing.

30:55of course it will but once you put an agi brain into a humanoid form that is stronger faster quicker more durable cheaper to run than a human you've got a new species and it's smarter and better than us yet we think of it as the servant species now not that we're going to be serving it tea or whatever but you know it's something people are going to have to process is not what they think it is. Yes, we'll have dumbed down versions purposefully, but the reality is there'll be a bunch of non-dumbed down versions. RAOUL PAL Oh, man. Fascinating stuff. So I move on to the website. Speaking of fascinating stuff and some really cool features we've been adding here, I wanted to ask you, because they're rolling out dashboards, right?

31:52I even saw some personal portfolio dashboards on there. We have a really cool community overlay feature as well, which kind of shows you anyone who's input a trade that you've input. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Let's just show people. Hold on. Yeah, I'm making all this talk and we're not showing you guys. Yeah, exactly. So let me just close that. So yeah, there's interesting stuff we've actually just built on here. Stuff like, okay, we've now got our own watch lists. So you can put stuff into the watch list. I'm sure we'll add some features around to that. The leaderboards from the trade ideas, which are always fun.

32:37I haven't loaded this up today, so it takes a little while to load. I don't know why my internet's slow. My internet's slow. But there's a bunch of that stuff. But then when we go into the pro tier, we've got dashboards being built. So this is Jamie's dashboards, crypto dashboards. We've also got portfolios. So it'll come up with Andreas's portfolio. Again, my internet is a bit slow. So here's all the portfolio without giving away the secret sauce. And we have further crypto dashboards. We have weekly indicator dashboards, all sorts of stuff being built within the community. The other thing that people are massively underusing is, A, the co-pilot is great.

33:30The co-pilot allows you to search anything that's ever been on Real Vision. Hey, there was a video with a guy, blah, blah, blah. It'll find it for you. You can ask it by clicking on any of these things where you see Ask AI underneath a piece. It'll tell you about it. So it'll read the article, give you an input, super useful, or just use it for anything when you're questioning. I feed it technical charts. Ask it to analyze the technical chart for me. I feed it documents, all sorts of stuff you can do. The other one is the little hack here is at the bottom when you click the forward slash, there's Rowl.

34:13And within that is the Rowl bot. Now, the Rowl bot is trained on all of my content, my X feed, and a whole bunch of stuff, including I've given it wine books and travel books and the full Rowl experience. And it speaks in my voice. So you can call me up and have a chat. and it'll help you. Again, it'll read charts. It'll give my perspective on a chart or my AI's perspective on a chart, PDF documents, read this for me, digest it for me. What do you think? How does it fit into your framework? What's going on? It's a super powerful tool that because it's so badly hidden on the website, which will be changed very soon, it's something amazing that most people don't even know about.

34:58And let's go to that thing you were talking about, which is really interesting. So let's take Microsoft. So this is Tolga's put a trade record on Microsoft, which I think is a good idea. So I'm saying I'm in. 67 % of people are in. But I want to have a look more at Microsoft. So if I view Microsoft, it gives you all the details. You can hit AI to explain more about Microsoft. It's actually in Canadian dollars. But you can also look at Microsoft in, I don't know, it doesn't come up on this one. you can generally see what the position is within the community. Let's see Palantir. I like Palantir as well.

35:44I'm into that one. Okay, let's have a look at Palantir. So here's every time the communities discuss Palantir, open trades, long trades, Britwick, who actually works at Royal Vision, it's on sale right here. I mean, he nailed that one. There's a short Palantir position there, which is another great trade. We have all of these, the whole hive mind of information. You can click on these and see, OK, well, what did that guy say? He didn't give us much of a thesis, but many of these, there's a full thesis written up and stuff like that. It's a really powerful tool to find great trade ideas, talk to AI on it, talk to the rowl about it.

36:34It's going to give you a lot more confidence, a lot more understanding of what's going on. Or you're just scrolling through, reading the really thoughtful updates, whether it's from research providers on the platform like myself, Mikkel and Andreas, or whether it's from members. There's Julian posting about liquidity, Jamie Cootes. But it's not just us lot. Robert's a member. He's built this amazing business around liquidity analysis. He's posting stuff on there. Lots of members posting. And we can break it down into trade ideas. If we just want to see trade ideas that are interesting, we can look at those too.

37:12So there's so much being built here. It's a remarkable tool for people now. I don't know why my internet's so slow. So here's just all the trade ideas recently being posted. And the P &L, so everything's tracked. Somebody did. That was a bloody good one. Oh, yeah. 200%. Nice trade. There's another nice one. Socks long. Anyway, so just cool stuff. Yeah, and what I love about it, too, especially on that community overlay feature, because there was a recent trade. I think it was a CENX. I don't know if the producers have that one teed up, but it did very well. And there were only two, yeah, Century Aluminum Company, there were only two members in our entire community that input this trade.

38:05And what I like about it is you can go to it and you can look at that and go back and see, oh my God, only one other person input this. And then you can message that person. You guys can stress test your ideas because now you have something in common with somebody because you're the only two people that saw this trade. And now you guys can talk about it, share ideas, talk about what you saw, talk about our entries, exits, and all that. And look, one's up 36%. I think one was up 120%. And that's another feature. As a community guy, that's what I love about this as well. You can essentially have a community around a trade, whether that's Microsoft, CNX, Hyperlink, whatever it is.

38:46And I think that's really cool as well. Yeah, I love it. I love the whole thing. It's just, it's really come alive. And it's become a really, you know, I actually spend more time now, mainly on the Real Vision website than ActionX. Yeah, it's the signal. The signal's there. The debates are better. There's a bit of trolling, but not too much. Right. And so it's actually, great. It's great. Yeah. And then the members have really been just like you touched on this and the members have just been absolutely posting incredible content. There's this one member who posts a note every Friday, which is the whole, he has the Dixie, he has oil, he has a whole bunch of crypto charts and just talks about the charts and what he's doing and just the conversation and just We have a super community of really intelligent people from all walks of life.

39:39And I just love that it's actually coming to fruition on the platform. It's turning out better than I had imagined it. And I'm just really happy to see this. Yeah, love it. Now, I think we should go through some charts as well. Yes. They would get a little mad if we didn't talk some charts in crypto. Exactly. So let me just pull up my trading view.

40:04RAOUL PAL, Okay. So SWE is obviously something I'm still very long of. I wrote a long piece about it in World Vision Pro recently. We got back down to the trend line. We put in a DMARC 13 bottom. DMARC, you can get on TradingView. It's a small cost. It's what everybody uses from Steve Cohen to Stan Druckenmuller to John Burbank to Tom Lee to you name it. it's an incredible trading tool. It gave us a weekly 13 low, whilst the RSI is crossing up. Signals like that are really good, particularly when they come down to the daily version of the chart. The daily version of the chart had started putting in a lot of 13s, started showing exhaustion.

40:5513, we had another leg down, 13, 13, 13, 9. When you get that kind of cluster, tends to be an exhaustion pattern. So you've got exhaustion patterns on a key trend line on daily and weekly. Now, we need to get some constructive price action above here and not just repeat a pattern like that. But probabilistically speaking, that's kind of how it feels like to me. One of the key things that helped us a lot is people were thinking the dollar was going to scream higher. It didn't. It got to the top of the range. It rejected. It feels like we still believe it comes back down to the bottom of the range and maybe one leg lower, which is very supportive for risk assets.

41:37If I look at the weekly chart, let's see if it gives us any more information on that. On the weekly chart, it did put in a 9.13.13. Chances are it counts down again. Not sure. We'll wait and see. I still think we've got another leg to a new low before it's done, which is very supportive of risk assets, and it's part of future financial conditions, which means the cycle may run longer if this is the case. I'm looking very closely at the dollar. If we look at the other thing that is current financial conditions is gold. Gold, has it rolled over or not, it's not entirely clear, putting a whole bunch of weekly demark tops, monthly, daily.

42:23But what it's saying is financial conditions, this is reflective of financial conditions, which leads most markets by six to nine months, is like, things are still relatively okay. So that's pretty positive still. Oops, that's not what I'm trying to do. Obviously, oil is the other big one at the moment. Oil, that's the weekly. We put it in the weekly nine with a risk limit. Let's go to the dailies. I think oil's topped and probably ends up, once it starts breaking down this pattern, I think it comes back down to the 60s. Let's see. Obviously, we're trading new slow. It's very complicated right now.

43:03Let's wait and see how that plays out. And the other part of this equation is what are rates doing? because that's important. And everyone's like, oh, my God, rates are going to get out of control. When you actually look back, we're still in the same range we've been in for ages. We got back up here. We've come back down again. I still think rates come lower over time. Again, we're waiting for the final resolution over what comes out of Iran. So the macro backdrop in terms of those things is good. As I said, the liquidity backdrop drop is good. We've got, let's have a look. We've still got some great charts out there.

43:41One of the greatest charts of all, I still think is the long-term Ethereum chart is just a beautiful flag pattern.

43:57and we're just counting down on the monthly chart to getting close to 13s. I don't think we need them on the monthly, on the weekly. We had a whole cluster of down signals. 13, we're still going to get somehow into this range, probably chop around. But when it goes, that should be a pretty big move. So I'm still constructive overall. Bitcoin is, here I've put it on a log regression channel. It's on a log regression channel. It's a little script I wrote myself using Claude. I have no idea how to write PineScript, but here I've got the PineScript for that. Not that one, but somewhere, which Claude wrote for me to create log regression channels.

44:45And here we are in Bitcoin on the monthly log regression channel at over one standard deviation oversold versus its trend. Over time, we tend to follow the mean and oscillate around that. So I still think it looks pretty constructive. If we look at the weekly version of that, and I'll change my indicator to my scripts, log of the deviation channel weekly. Let's get rid of that. other tool. It's another tool. In fact, I could talk about that as well. I've built four people. The log regression channel is not on here for some reason today.

45:32Let's try and bin one of them. No, I don't know what's happened to that. But I built another tool here, which is like a trend indicator. And because a lot of people get confused, A lot of people don't stomach the volatility that I have. This is free to anybody. It's called the GMI Weekly Trends Signal. There's going to be a version of this on the platform. I've built a whole dashboard around it, which shows you where you are in the liquidity cycle, where you are in ISM. This is to help you with the wiggles in the middle. What it's saying here is Bitcoin has turned positive on the weekly chart because it's now gone to green, the green dots are below.

46:10It was red for a period of time. It's not 100 % right. You sometimes get whipsawed, but generally, it's pretty good. And it works for everything on a weekly chart. So you could change Bitcoin here to, let's say, NASDAQ. Let's put QQQ in.

46:34And adjust some of the parameters, depending what the volatility of the underlying market is. There's not too many whipsaws here. I got whipsaw a little bit there, but not really. But generally speaking, it was red, red, red. It's putting in a green. Now, probably still needs to confirm, but looking positive that we've gone back to a trend change. So that's to help people. It's not a trading model. It's to help people just understand the volatility when it's changing. Do I want to lighten up risk or not? I don't do those things in the cycle because I trade full cycle, not in between the wiggles, but this is to help people.

47:13So that's the GMI Weekly Trend Signal. Also, pay for demark. It's one of the best things in the world you'll ever use. Again, if you don't understand a demark chart, you can just stick it into AI, and it'll tell you all about it. So it works perfectly for that, too. So those are the main charts. The other one's actually interesting. Let me get rid of this.

47:42Let's get rid of that for now. How have I got it here? Yeah, this is the others versus Bitcoin. And this has been interesting to me for a while now, because it's starting to get up to the top of the range. Now, is it going to break through the range first scope? Probably not. We're going to end up counting probably to a 13, or maybe even, yeah, that will be a 13 count. Okay, we'll probably pull back again. But at some point, I feel like this channel, because of this bottoming effect that we had here, is going to break through. And that's the kind of alt-season signature that people are looking for.

48:25There was another version of this, which is, if we go to, what was the other one I was looking at? Yeah, the ETH Bitcoin cross. I put this on Twitter the other day. Very interesting chart. Let's put our D marks onto this, just to see if it gives us any further signal. For some reason, not showing D mark. There we go. So there's no signal. There's no topping signal. We're nowhere near account on the daily basis. That's kind of interesting, right? Because it's exactly what happens when the business cycle turns higher. We've talked about this. The ETH-Bitcoin cross starts performing once the ISM is positive.

49:15We did put in a nine earlier, and it's risk limit. The dotted lines are still in place. We kind of came off that. We've got a good chance of breaking out here. Now, the bigger pattern is still a long way away. But the bigger pattern is still constructive, I think. What's interesting is, contrary to the narrative, oh, ETH's terrible, everything else. Ether's basically kept the same ratio as Bitcoin since 2017. People are like, oh, yeah, everything bleeds against the king. Bitcoin's all bullshit. When you look at a chart like that, it's absolutely clear that Ether's maintained value. Now, the question is to me, and I'm writing a long article about this, in a future world, seeing a chart like that, and then seeing a chart like Bitcoin dominance over time.

50:12Bitcoin dominance over time is a series of lower highs and potentially higher lows. This could be a flag pattern. We don't know. But what it's telling us is Bitcoin's share of the overall crypto market is falling over time. Now, what is the trend rate? Let's see if we can do that on a monthly chart. And if I can put that indicator I've got, let's see if I can do this.

50:43My scripts, my log regression channel monthly, because that one I was working before. No, it's still relatively flat. Oh, because it doesn't go back far enough. I need to change some of the parameters. But over time, it's been roughly falling. Why is that? It's because Bitcoin's total addressable market is basically global savings. It's a store of value. Smart contracts are basically all economic activity on the internet or in the agent world. So over time, they will end up as a basket of layer ones, particularly, to be more valuable than Bitcoin. RAOUL PAL, And I know that seems contentious to people, because certainly in the last cycle, it was like, you're either a Bitcoiner or you're a shitcoiner, and all of this nonsense.

51:36People just don't understand that smart contracts is a technology platform. Bitcoin is a store of money. It's a whole different sort of wealth. It's a whole different thing. But when I look at the chart of Bitcoin, I look at the chart of dominance, you think about what it means, what it's actually saying. you think about the rise of the agents and the use of smart contracts and payments platforms and stable coins and all of the things, it's telling you that probably over time, the structure of crypto markets will change. RAOUL PAL You said it last week, too. It's basically the agents don't care about your favorite chain.

52:16They're going to use the fastest, most efficient, cheapest chain. And the facts of the matter is that's not Bitcoin. It's not the fastest, it's not the cheapest, it's not the most efficient. I can see them using, as of right now, something like a Solana or a Sui, which is just super fast, super efficient, super cheap, and just really easy to use in general. RAOUL PAL, That's right. The more functionality that that chain has that's usable by an agent, so the more programmable, flexible, adaptable that is, so Sui comes to mind because of how it's structured, it becomes quite useful for agents to do because it has the whole walrus thing for memory and all of that kind of stuff.

52:59Solana's great for this. Now, Ethereum layer one, probably not. Maybe fine for stable coins, but for agent speed, not necessarily. It's good enough for now. Layer twos, sure. Base is doing a good job with that, but they're unlikely to be as fast as some of the more performance chains. But again, it's not only going to be the fastest. There's different benefits and what DeFi it's interacting with, what it's trying to do, all of those things. So I just think it's always been a multi-chain world. It always will be a multi-chain world. And our job is to try and make our bets accordingly. I think it's much easier to bet on the layer ones, quality layer ones, than it is trying to choose which layer twos accrue value or which applications accrue value.

53:47If you think about hyperliquid, probably going to do really well. It generates lots of revenues. People love that, even though actually revenue is not the deciding factor. But maybe with something like hyperliquid, it's a very valid point, but it is a single-use chain. It's never going to have the breadth and depth of activity that Ethereum or Solana will have. Just can't, because it's built for basically financial markets. in its particular way. And that's great. And it generates lots of profits. And it's great. So specialist chains are more complicated. In the specialist chains world, there's only one other competitor to Bitcoin.

54:31It's not a competitor. Call it a younger sibling, which is Zcash. it's the only other kind of store of value that has any relevance when bitcoin exists because it's got the privacy element and it's basically used as bitcoin's mechanics so it's interesting and i can understand that a share of global wealth would use ccash what percentage that's what the bet is and you got to figure that out in the market the other one that stands out somewhat differently, but yet to be proven, is BitTensor, because that's not really a proof of stake, proof of work. It's proof of AI. It's proof of intelligence. It's somewhat different in structure, so it's an interesting one to watch.

55:22But there's not much space for a whole bunch of layer ones. In the end, I think the race is, and I would leave BNB out of it because it's really a, it's not a decentralized chain, but it has plenty of use case. Same as base. They've got use case, nothing wrong with that. I still think it's Ethereum, Solana, SWE, and I don't know who else in the layer ones. that really has a big chance if I look down the list. Now, HBAR, whatever, there's a bunch of other ones, AVAX. But in the end, we'll have to see how differentiated they are and what works. RAOUL PAL, JR.: Yeah, I love that you said that about the L1s, because I really just completely agree.

56:16I've been seeing it as well. And it takes me back to a conversation I had with a Real Vision friend, Sergio Silva, at a beautiful omakase dinner at last year's crypto gathering. And he was saying, it's an L1 world. And he equated it to the Chinese real estate market that just all of these chains are being built and all these L1s and L2s are being spun up for a demand that just doesn't exist quite yet. And that's what it is. RAOUL PAL Yeah. And look, why L1s? It's so simple because once you've got proven network effects, they tend to accrue more network effects. As more people join, the more people build on top of them.

56:56Some are earlier stage, like SWEED, so it's much more speculative. It needs to fully prove itself out. Others are completely proven, Ethereum. So you've got a nice risk spectrum. But the probability of one of those larger ones going to near zero is near zero. The chances of Solana or ETH going to zero is essentially zero now. And so it takes a lot of the risk out. And they accrue all economic activity. What people say is, but they don't make much fees. And that is a red herring. The fees is actually inefficiency. What you want is activity. Over time, they'll generate money to pay for the elements of the chain itself.

57:44But it's not that. It's the economic activity and how scarce, how much people will complete for the block space. So yeah, there's been an argument about this. It's like, well, ETH is valueless because it can't generate fees. The fact that it doesn't generate fees makes it highly attractive to use. People don't realize that. And that's proven out in all technology. Everything goes to zero in cost, and that explodes its use case. Yeah, your fees are, you can be pulling in all the fees you want. It doesn't matter if you don't have the users there. That's right. Wow, this has been a great conversation.

58:22Everyone loves to have you on RectVision, if not only just for the green candles and obviously your insight. But we're heading into the weekend. Next week, I want to give you the last word. What do you want to leave us with? trying not to spend all weekend on Claude. Easier said than done. I'm going to be there all weekend. Yeah, exactly. You have to be careful. I'm going to the ice hockey tonight. And not tonight, tomorrow night. Well, enjoy it. Yeah. Is this your first ice hockey match? No, the second one. The second one. It'll be fun. I hear they're really fun in person, especially when they fight.

59:03Oh, yeah. RAOUL PALAMARAJANI - And it's really fast, very engaging, unlike American football, which is like, start, stop. Hang around for 10 minutes, start, stop. Really? This is not a sport. RAOUL PALAMARAJANI - You know what's interesting about American football? There was a study, because on TV, it's like four hours. It's a four hour long event, but the actual time of play was something like 20 minutes. RAOUL PALAMARAJANI - It's the worst. It's fun to go to because of all the show and everything else, but it's fucking worse. I don't know how everybody thought that's an exciting sport. It's American pageantry at its finest.

59:40That's what it is. For that, it's great. Rahal, it's been a pleasure. We'll see you next week on somewhere on Unreal Vision. It's been a pleasure. Have a fantastic weekend and have fun. Yeah, touch some grass, everyone. Enjoy yourselves. Take care. Take care, everyone.

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