Raoul Pal Reveals the BEST Crypto Strategy After Fed Rate Cut - REKT Vision

27:45So we all look back on the past and it's valuable to us. And X copy is a moment in time, as is Beeple. And the great example of that is, particularly if you're English, you'll see the prices Oasis tickets are going for. What they're doing there is monetizing nostalgia. And you can make tremendous amounts of money by doing that. And people will pay. I mean, I haven't bought my tickets yet, but I'm sure I'll massively overpay for them because the scarcity and that cultural moment means a lot to a lot of people, a real lot of people. And this is the same thing. The cultural moments of 2018, 19, 20, 21 really will stick in people's minds forever, people from this space.

28:33And so I think it just gets more valuable over time. Do you think the same collection activity of NFTs happens on Solana or any other chain? Does it stay on ETH? I think it stays on ETH. Ordnals?

28:56possibly. But for some reason, yes, people will experiment and other stuff, but for some reason, ETH seems to be that chain. And it becomes very clunky. I've got NFTs and Solana, and I can't see them in the same place, and they're not in my OpenSea, and they're not in my wallet. So it's kind of like it's a bit of a pain. So I do think it tends to stay within ETH. Now, the question is, I actually also think NFTs and ming coins will merge at some point. We saw that with the kind of Frank Degod's doing the opposite. But I think somewhere there's a rarity value of the NFT that massively enhances a minkoin community in terms of whether it's status.

29:48I was talking to the smoking chickenfish guys. I'm like, you should give out bishophoods and priesthoods and stuff like that as NFTs, and you can buy your status, whatever it is, right? But somewhere these are coming together. People are thinking that it's A or B. I don't think it is. It's A plus B equals C, which is the moment Amanda was talking about, which is where culture becomes a very big thing. Yeah, I really, I definitely agree with that. I think PFP communities were some of the strongest communities in 2021. And if anything, the hurdle for them really was being able to join the club. If the cheapest NFT was a few thousand dollars, it was hard for someone to be part of that community.

30:31because, you know, fractional NFTs never really took off. So if you have an NFT collection, which is kind of like it has a meme-based community and you have a meme token that goes along with it, so it is A plus B, I think that's a very powerful combination because you can flex by, you know, buying the gold one or the rare one, but you can just enter the community with as little as$1 theoretically. And I think... And Hugo will prove this point out. I know people have written it all off. I don't think you should write off Bored Ape Yacht Club. By the time they actually have a clubhouse in Miami and it becomes a real thing, we will all use it when we go to Miami.

31:13It'll become like a solo house thing. And I can see that idea spreading. And I can now see that they're working very hard on making use cases out of ApeCoin and ApeChain. And let's see, because they were the people who had the big idea. is these things are all together combined. And I still think it's yet to play out, but I think it's interesting. I mean, I just saw that Dookie Dash is like number three on all free downloaded games. Number three on apps. I think, so we've been speaking about this now for what, 10 minutes. We've all agreed that it feels as though it's more internet culture, blockchain culture that's going to be valuable.

31:50If somebody was listening to this and saying, actually, I agree with these guys, what are the top three things you would maybe advise them to buy? Other than maybe X copy, because you have to have 700 grand to buy it. No, you can buy it. Don't forget there's a lot of floors of cheap stuff. That's true. He has an open edition, which is less than that. But are there any other two things, or let's say three things, what are the things that you would pick out now that we've been in this space for many years and you can see the stuff that's probably going to be more likely to be valuable? I still think Ray Pepe is a massive underlooked parts of the NFT market, which technically are not on ETH.

32:30The original ones are on Counterparty, although you can buy on ETH. You can buy 2016 vintage NFT, like original NFTs, the thing that kicks off the NFT movement of the biggest internet meme character of all time. And it's difficult to buy. I think that's actually a feature, not a bug. So to me, there are rare pepes that are cheaper, is probably like a few hundred dollars, if not even less. And then some are worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. But you have the whole range. But I think owning like a rare Pepe is pretty much as OG as you get in the NFT space on more levels than one. Historical significance, cultural significance.

33:14What about Pepe the coin as well? I'm just trying to think about that as like a multi-cycle meme coin as well. Yeah, and Doge. I wouldn't write off Doge ever. Yeah. It does feel like if someone said to me, what would you buy coming into this space? Obviously, XCopy feels like it's going to have that art narrative pretty sewn up. I feel like Pepe and Doge probably are the biggest multi-cycle memes that you can probably own. And you're going to see mad volatility, but they're never going to go to zero. They're always going to have a bid from internet culture. And then for broader NFTs, a lot of them have been beaten down.

33:50but I can see a rebound in things like Bored Apes. Maybe Mutant Apes are cheap enough. Mutant prices are not that expensive now because Bored Apes are still not cheap for the average person. But Mutants, that's not wildly expensive. And in X-Copy, it's Max Payne because he keeps burning them. So there's less and less all the time. And Max Payne are very cheap. They're kind of interesting. And Punk's... I guess we would all agree on as well. Yeah. We're all supposed to say rec guy as well, but. Well, I don't disagree, mate, as you know that. I think rec guy, I think MFers, I think crypto dick butts.

34:33There's a few of that period that will always be culturally remembered. And so they're always going to have value. And all it needs is whether you guys or MFers, I mean, they've got the MFer coin and stuff, whether that is worth anything or not. or that was just a stunt for bass. But I just think if you see the opportunity to reinvigorate outside of the rec drinks and back in that NFT community when it's the right time and it feels authentic, I think it'll come alive again. And people won't forget MFers because most people don't sell that stuff in the end. They just identify with it. If I look at my...

35:15If I go to... I'm just going to share my screen again. I can.

35:24You're right. These are the sort of things that get remembered, I think. You've got to pick those things now, maybe from the last cycle, which are being remembered but are still relatively cheap and will probably be remembered next cycle as well. Yeah, so I've got something in my whole kind of NFT collection, which is X copy, B pool, plus a few artists and stuff. But I have something that I call my identity. It's the things that I think represent me. And it's obviously my punk and my ape. And then I did these hybrids with my ex-copies that an artist made for me and I minted. But then there's my MF and my rec guy.

36:02And I'm never going to sell those because they actually represent a bit of me and a bit of a moment in time. And people see them and they smile because you know what it means. You know what it's about. you can remember when it came out it's like you know it's an album it's something you remember it you remember the day ret guy came out and snoop dogs buying one you know nobody's ever going to forget that it's folklore so anyway i don't want to big you guys up as well but you know it's i think it's part of it yeah i hope so too i do i do think that you can um that these things are going to be around but i think that's what you've got to really choose now because i think it's very very clear that internet culture crypto culture is going to be with us and you can kind of guess which stuff now is going to be...

36:46It has to have folklore. It has to have folklore. So maybe we'll change tax slightly because we've been talking about a lot of left-curve stuff there and maybe just focus on what was the best performer this week, at least on the L1s, which was SUI, which has been... I think it was trading at 0.5 a dollar in the middle of August. It's now at 1.5. It's done a 3x over the space of about a month and a half I think it's close to its all-time high in current market cap because there's actually been some dilution just because it does have a decent amount of unlocks. But this has been a really, really crazy trade as a comeback.

37:28This week, they announced that they are having Circle integrate their stablecoin USDC onto the chain. Last week, we had Grayscale come out and do a SUI Trust or at least start to get funds from institutional investors on that. This one really feels it has some momentum. I know you're very close with the foundation. What do you think here? Is this one that's going to keep on pushing on? Is this stuff that you think is coming, which is going to be a game changer for Sui? Yeah. I mean, just the disclaimer is I am on the board of the foundation. But I'm a mercenary when it comes to my own money. And I have for a while been thinking, All three of us have talked about this, is that this might be one of the chosen ones.

38:18And the reason being is that the team is world-class. They've built scalable blockchains suitable for 3 billion people plus. I mean, these guys are world-class. They're a little bit technical. So the narrative was missing, but then started to come alive with narrative. But the reality is they've got the latency of the chain down to 600 milliseconds. It's stupid fast. They've now just building this walrus, which is a data storage layer, which is a separate token. But it's like basically AWS on top of this whole move virtual machine idea. Then they've got PilotFish coming, which is their version kind of a fire dancer, which gives it kind of unlimited TPS.

39:08and they've got a very serious biz dev team. Obviously, we've just got Circle and there'll be, I'm sure, plenty of others, whether it's in gaming or real world assets and other stuff to come. So they're just capturing mindshare. Now, don't forget, this is a low free float. And once you capture mindshare in a low free float, it outperforms by definition because there's less of it around. You can have the same mindshare for ETH. It's not going to go, it's barely going to move. So I know people hate low free floats. You're going to love them in a bull market and hate them again in a bear market because they're just super beta.

39:44So I think that's the point to realize. It's also super beta, capturing mindshare. They seem to be executing well, and people are looking for the next big trade. Because as Ovi was talking about, people are kind of like, well, is the Solana trade over? What's the next big one? And so it feels like it's got everything right. I don't see what else is going to dominate. I look at the charts of SUI versus the top 20 tokens and a whole bunch of other stuff. I don't see anything that looks close to being able to compete with it for the time being. The only things coming are Monad and Baruchain. It doesn't mean that Celestia and all this stuff doesn't go up a lot, but it's very difficult to see anything that's going to outperform that chart.

40:31Yeah, we're just bringing it up now. So there was a top performer in the top 100 this week, I think it even was last week as well. It'd been brewing for a while. I remember you actually posted a chart of it versus Solana a few weeks back and it really just gapped during that period. I think it's been an interesting one. Obviously, this is one, like you said, it's a$4 billion market cap. It's a 15 billion FDV and there are a decent amount of unlocks as there are even for many of the other chains. The big unlock happened. It already happened. The really horrible one has happened. And I think the story there has really been a bit more B2B, right?

41:08Like they do a lot of B2B sort of integrations and less of the B2C, at least recently, or at least has been less obvious that some of their consumer crypto applications. But this USDC integration perhaps really allows their DeFi projects to grow. And their TVL is huge as well. It's$800 billion now,$800 million. dollars yeah um so i think i think it's in a decent spot it's obviously this is a trade which has done basically a 3x in a month and a half so be be wary but at the same time this is um it's definitely caught attention and kind of led the other uh l1s phantom's been another one because they've got a not great coming but sui does feel like it's it's captured mindshare you can actually see a lot of it has come out from eath a lot of people have been selling eath to buy sui they've It kind of felt like they probably missed the Solana trade and moved into Sui.

42:01But you could see from the on-chain flows that a lot of it actually came from ETH. The other one that's interesting, I just interviewed John Wu from Avalanche. And I caught up with Piers Kix in Portugal when I was there. And I don't know, have you met Piers yet, Mando? You've got to meet him. He's such a great guy, good friend of mine. And he's the gaming guy at Delphi. and he talked about the investment he's made in off the grid. He's like, it is the best game I've ever seen in Web3 and it may be one of the best games I've ever played. That's on Avalanche. And I got John on because of what Pierce said to talk about it.

42:38That's going to be really interesting because we've not had a proper breakout. You know, this is a battle royale game, you know, ultra high definition, super quality. If this takes off, okay, that's a big deal. Well, gaming has had a bit of a weird cycle. It was very, very strong. Probably a year ago, you had a bunch of different coins come out. There was actually a$1 billion gaming coin, which launched today on the Ton network. There was one of these Telegram mobile games, launched via Binance, hits a billion dollars today. You have the Hamster Combat launch, I think, next week, which could be multiple billions, looking at where that coin launched today.

43:21But if that is the case, then yeah, AVAX does have a very, very strong gaming ecosystem. We could see that come back pretty, pretty strongly. Are there any other altcoin narratives that you picked up on OSF in Singapore? Anything that people were talking about that could be applications? I know I saw a few people mention like Deepin being the main one, but I didn't. I think there were some integrations with like Grab out there and a couple other Deepin integrations. It does feel as though that one seems to have the strongest things going on with it right now. Yeah, I would agree with that. But there wasn't any...

43:57It was one of those conferences where it didn't come away with like, oh, we have to spend time looking at this. And that usually happens to every conference that goes to. This one was like... It felt like a conference of people with frustrated positions that hadn't gone well this year. That was my sentiment for it. Usually when I go to whatever, like NFT, NYC or Consensus Austin or whatever, I'll come back thinking, oh, I need to spend a day right now looking at this thing to put money into it. It didn't feel like that at all. I think all the narratives around there, all the Ocorns have been identified.

44:29It's just a case of can it rally? That's what it feels like to me. There wasn't anything new or any particular area where I felt like people were specifically focused on or excited about really, to be honest with you, is more just a hope trade, which... We're all in it for the hopium as well. But is there anything you've liked as well, Raoul? I know you're often at the cutting edge of a lot of these sort of early trends that you've interviewed or spoken to recently. You're like, oh, wow. I joined the board of Club Devan, which you guys know as well, because I'm just really interested in following that journey.

45:09You know, they're launching their token today or tomorrow. It's not really about token price for me in that. It's like, can you actually use this stuff for loyalty, logistics, D-Pin, and all of the things that are being talked about? But in the markets, no, I'm super concentrated. You know, it's the Solana, Sui, and even my memes are all down to one, or two, which is Doge and smoking chicken fish. So I'm hyper-concentrated. And then NFTs is my long-term savings bucket. You know, the first stuff I want to have for 10 years. And that's it. I'm trying to keep out of trouble. I think it's a really important thing is if you think you've got decently strong narratives, just don't fuck around with it.

45:54Because before you know it, you chop yourself up to death by trying to catch something. the other thing i saw this week was the was the bhutan uh headline which was that they are they came out as a holder of 780 million dollar bitcoin i know also you're somebody who speaks to various different sovereign wealth funds various different even nations themselves um in terms of advising about blockchain and blockchain strategy do you think we have more of these sort of stories coming we saw qatar come out with with crypto regulation about a week ago or has it been kind of quiet i I know you've spoken to people on both sides there.

46:31Do you think we're going to see adoption from a sovereign and sovereign wealth fund level from some of the conversations you've had? I don't think. If they do, it's going to be below the radar screen. The last thing you want to flag is to the U.S. reserve currency that you don't want to hold their currency. And, you know, something they're kind of somewhat hostile to, you want to hold that. So, I mean, Bhutan is different. They're recycling electricity. I mean, we know Iran has it. I'm sure the Saudis have mined it. I've spoken to Abu Dhabi about using their gas flare-offs to do it. So I think there'll be experimentation, but I don't think there's going to be sovereign nation-state hoarding.

47:17And don't forget, the US knows how to analyze blockchain down to every single small detail. So you can't evade them. The only real way of doing it is what I think Temasek did, which is I think they had investments in Bitcoin miners to get virgin Bitcoin. So therefore, it's the only untraceable way of doing it. Do you think just with how oil has been going, a lot of different commodities in this cycle, particularly the energy sector as well, do you not think a lot of these Gulf states will just jump at something like Bitcoin as a way to diversify? I was reading a lot of pieces about how the Saudis are under pressure of their budget at the moment.

47:58They're all pegged to the dollar. I mean, they have to be very careful in how they do things. There are some things deemed to be acceptable and things to be deemed to be unacceptable. They will do it, but in the background. But I don't think we're going to wake up as like Saudis buying$10 billion a day for the next 50 years. I just don't think that's going to happen. And I think that's more opium. But of course, there'll be more participation. And it will come from, I mean, I spoke to the head of the Australian Sovereign Wealth Fund. And he was like, sat in his office and he's like, listen, I'm never going to put crypto on my balance sheet.

48:42He said, I'll do VC and stuff like that. I said, why not? He goes, I am not going to a G7 meeting or whatever it is, a World Bank, and doing this. I can't. I just can't. And that was a big, clear thing. It's like, it's a no-no. Yeah, I agree with you. So you think that the Gulf states won't even be allowed to? Like, does they have to buy dollars and they're not going to be allowed to maybe diversify? They ought to do it somewhat in their sovereign wealth in some respects. but it's kind of hidden, pushed to the periphery. Don't forget, the Saudis are not big in this yet. They've still yet to be convinced.

49:22The regulation's not super clear. Yes, potentially Bahrain, Qatar, some of those other states might do something, but again, below the radar screen. I don't think there's going to be any public announcement, much like Bhutan managed to do this without anybody knowing, and this has been going on for several years. Yeah. I just feel there could be a rush to diversify now if oil continues to head south. And particularly if, you know, if the giant shale oil fields kind of come back online or even grow in the US. I do think that there's going to be more and more questions about how a lot of these Gulf states are going to treat crypto or maybe look to it to diversify their current holdings.

50:09Should we get to the questions over, Seth? Yeah, we have about eight minutes left. So let's move on to questions. Before we do that, just a quick one for you guys. We want to showcase some more pro-crypto content on Real Vision. Earlier this week, the community came together for the monthly Discord distillery. This is the show where our Real Vision pro-crypto members share the best alpha from their Discord. So you can check that out on the Real Vision website. That's realvision.com. And don't forget, there's a code you can use right now to bag yourself a membership at a discount. That is BDay10, the code to use.

50:40But yeah, now on to the questions. We'll kick it off from Jason on the Real Vision website, which is, his question is, thoughts on Truflation and Truflation's token, how do you categorize alts that are data-based? It's an interesting question, actually. I've got some in my wallet because they gave them some to me, but it's like a grand or something.

51:06I get the point of utility tokens, but I'm not sure how much value they accrue with that massive use case so maybe over time if they can build out a much larger suite if they can take on Standard & Poor's or whoever it is for all of the data then it's a valuable network to own not sure yet, I think just follow the journey and see it's not the prettiest chart I've ever seen as I pulled it out but to be honest with you I'm not Super familiar with Erza token. I don't know if you had any thoughts on that one, Mando. No, I haven't really looked into it. So yeah, not one for me. All right, next question from Ian on the Real Vision website.

51:53Thoughts on Deepin and how it factors into the cycle? Any specific projects that guys are looking into with regard to Deepin? Yeah, I think this is one that I picked up on just from the commentary from token 2049. like Singapore is integrating a few of these sort of deep in apps already. The big, big app so far this cycle has been the mobile provider, Helium, in the US, which I think is growing pretty rapidly. I think it's in hundreds of thousands of subscribers at the moment to their mobile plan, and they are looking to grow that pretty aggressively. And if that works, then I do think you'll see copycat sort of projects happen in a lot of different countries.

52:37And the idea is you basically run a small, let's say, network at your house, which is able to boost the 5G capabilities of the network, and you get paid in a native token for doing that. And that means you have network coverage kind of across the US at the moment. And they have very good network coverage across the US. And seemingly, they're looking to do this potentially in multiple other different countries, but I think a lot of other countries will move before that. So I think mobile networks is a very interesting one, particularly on the back of what's going on there. So that's the main winner, I would say, in the Deepin sector.

53:15This cycle, there's been some other ones which kind of merge AI and data storage stuff, but that's the one I think has been the standout. Also, I think it's on Solana, they're experimenting with an Uber version, which people have talked about for a long time. It's perfect for Deepin. Feels right. Somebody tried it in India, didn't take off. People have tried it, but there's a new one starting that could be interesting. Next question. Does the inverted yield curve turning normal cause any concern? So much talk about how it is a recession indicator. I think it's just a big red herring. It's just the macro doomsters looking for another reason why the markets are going to collapse and everything's going to go to hell and inflation's going to come roaring back.

54:03And this is just one of those things. We've had signals in the past where it didn't work. We've got distortions in the yield curve because of how the Fed are issuing notes and stuff at the short end. I think ignore. I agree. I think something I see a lot is people talking about, oh, historically, rate cuts are a sign of a recession, you know, the point where markets turn. I just don't think you can take one factor, which is rate cuts and extrapolate it to every single situation. And last time that happened, did you have this crazy AI bubble and AI boom? No. Last time that happened, did you have rates go to the highest levels they've been in the last four decades at the same time as stocks consistently hitting new all-time highs?

54:48That's never happened before, right? So we're in a new paradigm because of AI and because of tech stocks. And you can't just compare this current market situation to previous times when we've had rate cuts, in my opinion. So you have to consider everything, every single factor, and not just one of them. Next question from John on the Real Vision website. The market feels like this is retail crypto people buying back in and front running as best as they can. Are there any indicators of bigger money flows into crypto? I'm not seeing any. I mean, everybody I speak to is saying they're not raising capital right now.

55:24Everyone's kind of in that wait and see mode. And people are a bit disheartened, not disenchanted, but disheartened. And I think the RAA networks, the family offices, and some of the institutions, they're really more likely to FOMO in at north of 80 ,000 Bitcoin. And right now, it's rotation. It's a bit of money that went on the sidelines, goes back in. I don't see anything more. I don't know. Are you guys seeing anything else? Not really. The whole cycle, yeah. I don't really feel like we've had a huge influx of new people come into crypto this cycle. We've had a little bit of an influx, I think, at the start of the year, and then it slowly died down.

56:06That being said, I do think the ETF is also taking a few of those maybe on-chain holders. I think Bitcoin holders, at least deposit addresses, is at a five-year low at the moment. But I think a lot of that is moving to the ETF. I think if people start FOMO-ing and you start to hear those stories which bring people in, you need Bitcoin at an all-time high again. So it does feel as though people are probably just buying back in with spare cash they have or anything that they've sold rather than new wallets coming in. But that doesn't necessarily mean they won't come in later. Like that's what it felt like for the 25K.

56:39At XPAM, we've got a big list of people who came in for inquiries around March, April. And then the market traded sideways, and they're like, all ummering and ahhing and oh yeah i'll do my paperwork later and my guess is the conversion rate of those guys will be very high once we're hitting all-time highs yeah just a natural inclination ftx is also the other big one 16 billion is not a small amount going back but wasn't most of that kind of pre-sold in advance via galaxy and pantera and that's been depressing sold somewhat because some of those unlocks have been coming out um because other people saying well, it's maybe$2 billion or$3 billion of actual money that's coming back in.

57:24I don't know. I don't know what the potential impacts would be, but I think there's two things, right? There's like the FTX estate sales, which have been in the market for a while, and then there's also the impact of money being distributed back to depositors, some of which have been also sold. I think I heard people sold claims as low as$0.10, and obviously recovery is north of par there. But I think that secondary impact of that money being returned to depositors should be bullish, assuming that not everyone has sold their claims. I think there's two parts to it. Yeah, that's the last question that brings us to time.

58:07So thanks everyone again for tuning in. Thanks, Raoul, for turning up. I think we managed to not crash the market today. Maybe that's the Raoul's house. Of course, he's turned up. we'll see you again at all time highs Raoul I only come for the glory my friends I don't dirty my hands with anything else but thanks everyone for tuning in that was Rektivision make sure you're following us on X remember to check out realvision.com and use the code BDAY10 to get a discount on memberships we will not have a show next week but Mando and I will be joining the 10th birthday celebrations on Real Vision so go to the website to watch that next Friday.

58:47That will be at 12 p.m. Eastern Time or 5 p.m. British Summertime. And thanks everyone for tuning in and have a great weekend. Great to see you all. Take care out there.

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