REKT Vision: Alt Season Canceled? BTC Dominance Hits 4-Year High

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1:42hello everyone we are back again another episode of wreck vision we did the uh question time with uh osf and mando last week we're back on the public show this week oh so if you were in miami last week um maybe we'll start there how was uh how was that yeah it was good i mean we spoke about it briefly on the um on the last show i believe um but i had a really good time um i think i would like to host more events next time as i was just telling the guys before the show i think the way that it works is like different people hosted their own things obviously i hosted the golf serge did a run i think julian did like a catamaran thing Raul had a couple of dinners that for me worked really well just having like smaller kind of like breakout groups during the time so yeah I would like to we only had three lucky members for the golf this time around but next year I'd love to open it up to more people and maybe we should do a five-a-side game actually that's what I was just thinking I was like what would I have done if I'd come maybe we were doing a five-a-side tournament where you play golf I'm basically just going to do things, do activities that I don't get to do anymore since being married and have a child and just do the first real vision thing so it's like five a side match do a bit of golf You aren't able to play golf anymore?

3:10Well I am but I had to retire from football What else could we do? A bit of table tennis Just watch some football like if it's some football on the weekend we'll just you know play some drinking games just uh guys we're just gonna put on gillette soccer saturday for exactly exactly that's gonna be uh that's gonna be real vision i've got all sorts of plans the next one and what was the sentiment like maybe maybe we'll go into that because i know more left curve than most but like what was the just the general sense it's very bullish the sentiment was very bullish like um when we went for dinner i sat at a table and they asked everyone and what they thought the highs for Bitcoin would be and where it would end this year.

3:58Pretty much everyone was within the 200 to 250K range for Bitcoin. Everyone was like, risk on, what alts do I buy, etc. So it was very bullish. I felt like I was the least bullish person there to the point where I almost felt like I was bearish and did a panel with Sergio and Keith and same thing then. Everyone was bullish. They were both bullish. and I was like, yeah, I'm bullish, but I'm a bit more measured and certain things need to happen for us to unlock high levels. And I kind of talked about how I thought we were in for a chop, which I felt like disappointed people. But yeah, it just seems like the sentiment there, I think, was a microcosm of the sentiment in the market where I think people seem to have this expectation where Bitcoin Reserve and buying of Bitcoin, all this stuff should have happened yesterday and we should now already be at 200.

4:49And I think that's kind of an explanation of why we're seeing the way things are right now. So I think it's good. Sorry, go ahead. As I said, I think it probably relates to how much Bitcoin you own at any one time. Like if you still own Bitcoin, you're probably like, we've got so much more to go. We're going up to 200K. If you're in ETH, obviously it's felt like a tougher cycle. Solana's kind of more ties and a lot more of the DGEN stuff, which has had a very, very tough few weeks since Trump released his coin. So I think it just depends what you're paying attention to. But I do feel as though Bitcoin is up only.

5:26This is going to be a bit of a range like we've seen three or four times over the last two or three years and then we're going to break out again. Yeah, I think I agree with that. And yeah, I just think Bitcoin is possibly in its own league now. I mean, it is in its own league. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030.

6:12So just click on the links below and start your journey now. The positive catalyst we have this year for crypto still feel very Bitcoin specific. I know there are some other things like Solana ETF or if the digital asset stockpile includes other things other than Bitcoin. But for me personally, there's nothing that really matches the idea of countries fighting over themselves to buy Bitcoin. That's just another level to me. So for something that has a fixed supply. So maybe that's where we'll start. And that's kind of what the title was today. Bitcoin dominance has just kept on going higher. If you bring up that chart.

7:04We had a brief dip below down to kind of the mid 50s in November, December time. We had big moves in some of the more Dino style coins, like XRP. Solana had a decent move. And then over the last month, particularly since Trump, Bitcoin dominance has just been surging. And which kind of culminated on Sunday night last week, where we had a very, very bearish reaction to potential tariffs coming in. Again, looking back on it now, it just seems so ridiculous at all. But there was a brief moment where ETH dipped to 2000, Solana dipped to 175, I think, and Bitcoin dipped to 90K. And in that move, Bitcoin dominance actually went up in a wick for like 65, 66.

8:05It dipped back down and then it's been slowly moving back higher again. So we're back up to like the 62 % range for Bitcoin dominance. And in that world, we've seen all the previous left curve trade sectors get decimated. So meme coin market cap has lost$45 billion in three weeks. It peaked over$100 billion, kind of$130, I think it was$120. It's now into the 70s. you had the AI agent sector which was peaked at around 18 is now down to just over 7 and that was kind of holding around 12 or 13 until this move and then you've seen kind of various other coins even the L1s like ETH has ETH BTC is at multi-year lows now it's only rebounded to kind of 2750 area even with Bitcoin at 100k Solana is still kind of hanging out around 200.

9:12And then you have a bunch of other more like Dyno L1s, which have performed fairly poorly as well. Very, very weak reaction to all of that sort of stuff. What's your take, firstly, to that one-day move? And then where do you see the market kind of going now? Yeah, I think it's, I think we're probably going to see more of the same for a while. I don't think, I can't see.

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10:48I can't see what catalyst there is to reverse this train, to reverse this move, you know what I mean?

11:00as we said at the beginning it's just going to be more Bitcoin stuff maybe maybe if Solana ETF is successful and it opens the door for other ETFs but I just think there's diminishing returns there I think people have just been beaten up so badly in alts what's the argument now to buy I guess there's an argument to say oh this stuff is down so much you can take a punt at it but it just seems like all new capital seems to be flowing to Bitcoin and nothing else. Bitcoin and possibly Sol, but Sol alone isn't enough to change Bitcoin dominance. I don't know, if you're a new person into crypto, what makes you buy an alt here?

11:50I just love how we've just gone from this show being very left curved and now just like full-on Bitcoin magazine because you now own Bitcoin. It's really been a full evolution since the very first show of me just doing meme coins to now just doing Bitcoin. But I mean, I'm just going with what the market is telling me and maybe there's a time to take the other side of the market. But my problem is like at some point, I do think Bitcoin dominance falls and alts rally, but I just don't know what. Like I don't know what's going to rally. My bet, as we've spoken about in the last couple of weeks, my bet is on AI coins and I own some AI coins.

12:28But again, even there, it's like, which coins do you own? And how do you know what you buy isn't replaced by something else in a few months? Because if you're betting on alt season or alts, outperforming Bitcoin, Bitcoin dominance dropping, et cetera, that's not like an overnight trade or a two-week trade. That's a multi-month trade. So you need to, whatever you hold you need to feel comfortable it's something that will hold and maintain its value and maintain its mind share and narrative over a longer period of time and that's been the hardest thing in this market it's just that's been consistent for a while i think i think it's important to talk about where we were like a month ago because obviously we're like we're super bullish on a bunch of these sort of stuff a month ago can't just now suddenly be like oh i'm bitcoin maxi i don't want to touch anything what has changed what has changed from now until then um there has to be some level of consistency here i think the main thing has got to be um the trump coin like you said that has meant that it really did change which we kind of mentioned two weeks ago that really changed the market dynamic in that people were very very scared about new coins coming even today there's talk about like a kanye west coin even dropping and and you got to wonder like what that would do to existing Solana coins.

13:45So I think that it was kind of a perfect storm there of people suddenly scared about new issuance. And then the second thing I would say here is that PumpFun has created coins, at least on Solana, with only like one or two, well, sometimes even less, but 1 % liquidity pools, right? And the third thing is none of the major exchanges have listed them for spot so when people rush to the exit in these coins i've i have not seen a sell-off like this since i've been in crypto this is like what this did to alts was similar to like an ftx style move um you know stuff is down 90 percent in in three or four weeks that is an absolutely insane move so i think it's kind of a more of an appreciation of um of the lack of liquidity in in in uh in these coins when things go wrong and probably that's also why they go up so high so quickly but um i think those are the two main things that's changed i i do still like ai is like the strongest narrative or one of the strongest old coin narratives here but there is that nagging feeling in the back of my head that yeah we could get wrecked um we could get wrecked if if another coin comes out um but they're down a lot and i kind of just feel like they're kind of down to where they were in let's say november or december early december and i was like looking at them there so like and i still really like this narrative but you just have to and then this becomes a case of yes you have to play all ones you think have the best long-term traction that's a much more difficult one even far coin which was kind of the strongest mean mean one got slightly decimated in this market but i do think those are the ones that will probably bounce the strongest um what i what i did move to two or three weeks ago was after the melania coin which kind of when i i told you i had a big bag of like arc for example and then when that dropped 40 percent after my drop like you can't hold these coins through that um now they are all down 80 i moved to revenue producing kind of coins largely so i moved to things like radium um to hype to jupiter um or kind of the big three those have performed slightly better um so i and i still like that bit of the market so ones where you're you're kind of selling and jlp obviously which has been the vast majority of my portfolio for a long time but those are those are coins which you um you earn just from trading taking place i i am tempted to kind of move some back into some of these coins now like it the the setup here is that stable coins just continue to go higher we're about to reach 220 billion dollars of stable coins right now um that is just up only number of addresses um and amount traded keeps on breaking out to new highs so like volume and yet the altcoin sector is is absolutely decimated so there seems to be this big disconnect between what i would call like underlying fundamentals of crypto adoption and altcoins and maybe that that was slightly the other way um or too far the other way with like how fast how far some of these altcoins got value but i do I do look at them some of them this week even today and I was like they are down a lot and I do think they're going to be the strongest old coin sectors I agree I definitely agree and I still agree with you on AI and I think because perhaps it was a bit of a consensus trade within the casino crowd that's why it's gotten hit so badly and because all the casino money is there every time there's something else out.

17:36So the liquidity suck, that also gets affected as well. But I've been, you know, I bought some ARK and AI-16Z last week in that big sell-off we had over the weekend, I think it was. And my plan is to keep averaging down on that stuff because I do think, I mean, actually one of the things from the Real Vision crypto gathering, one of my takeaways from that was some of the larger wallets I spoke to, whether they were funds managing money or just like high net worth people, people were very, very focused on AI. And actually it felt like it was people who'd missed that first move in December or the first move in November, December, and then sort of just started doing the work in January, seem bullish, but haven't really yet deployed while the price has been going down.

18:26And I think there's capital to come into it that views it as an entry point. rather than capital where it's like, oh, I'm down really bad on this. We're going to sell and move on. I think my view on the AI stuff is going to be a transfer of coins and potentially wealth from the casino crowd to a more sophisticated institutional crowd. I think that's kind of what's happening right now. But I know of at least three, possibly even four funds that we've spoken about who are deploying in that sector right now, I think. And being very patient in terms of averaging down and not just like aping all in.

19:07So I think that stuff is going to be a good space to buy. I think you just have to be patient and try and lower your average cost as much as possible given the price section. But at some point this year, I think we're going to have a big resurgence of that too and through all-time highs, I think. And all-time highs in a lot of those coins, by the way, is like a 10x on some coins, I think now. Right. Well, but I guess the technical setup is what I'm basically trying to say, is that everything else kind of points to more of an altcoin market here, right? Everything else points to when you have stablecoins going this high, when you've had Bitcoin just breaking through an all-time high, right?

19:48and then you have you have the amount of dex volume going going up only the amount of active addresses going up only you would assume that that's that's a market where lots of people are coming in and want to trade altcoins and if we haven't topped like if you don't think this is a cycle top I'm not a big believer in like the just bitcoin dominance right like in the metric of an altcoin cycle because I agree there's thousands of coins that get issued each day but it would really really surprise me if bitcoin at this stage is going to be the best performing asset like yeah if it's going to do a 2x like and nothing else moves because because that would be that would be really wild to have what you just have bitcoin and a bunch of people in stables doing nothing kind of feels like this people are going to probably punt around with some stuff, right?

20:43I think so. I don't disagree with that. I think my only point is I think it will take time. I don't think we're going to see it for a while. And because we don't see it for a while, we just don't know which alts are the ones to play, which is why I think Bitcoin dominance will remain elevated for a while. Like, what you're saying is not going to happen tomorrow or next week, probably not even next month. Could it happen in six months? Yeah, but like in six months, We don't know what the landscape in crypto is changing so quickly. And there are so many things to happen this year. We just don't know which sector within altcoins will do really well.

21:19So it's hard to, what I'm saying is it's hard to put that trade on now because I do think there'll be a lot of alpha within, a sectoral alpha within the altcoin space. It's not just going to be all alts higher, I don't think. Yeah, I think that's a good point. like yes this is like it could potentially be like owning pepe six months before it breaks out do you know what i mean uh and in that time bitcoin can go a lot higher um i guess what you could say is maybe like the l the alt l1 trade should be the direct trade like own some of the l1s and maybe they outperform against bitcoin like maybe that's the safest way to play it over six months because people will still buy solana sui avax cardano like you know all that stuff XRP, all that stuff still does trade with the market so maybe that's maybe that's the best way to play it rather than getting deeper into like alt sectors if that makes sense, just like stick to L1s You can stick to L1s although maybe we should go through that which is kind of what happens to ETH this week there was, if it felt bad to own ETH before this week it definitely fell bad during this week.

22:37ETH is at$2 ,750. So it's kind of unchanged over the last few years, right? Like you could have owned ETH for many years now and kind of be flat on your money, which is kind of wild. I think it's like five years is flat to where it was, so like 2020 time. What do you think about ETH here? Is the market just telling you that you don't trust it? Do you look at it now? There's been some talk this week that because a lot of the more left-curve stuff that was happening on Solana is so down that maybe people will return to safety or return to the relative safety of TVL, which EAP has. What's your take?

23:25Do you think now it's time to buy E? I think we could see a near-term outperformance of ETH just given how much is underperformed. Like you can see, I could see ETH BTC, where is it now like 0.027 or 0.028 or something like that? Like I could see that going back towards 0.03 or above. But it's still hard for me to see like a material outperformance. It's hard for me to see that ratio go back towards 0.06 without a big... Yeah, you would need a really big catalyst. And if I think of what big catalysts there are to get alts to perform, maybe it's an ETF. But guess what? ETH already has an ETF and it's not really seeing that much inflow.

24:11So unless that changes, unless people start thinking, oh, now it's time to start buying ETH and they can build a story, then that could happen. But what I think ETH really needs is not something different in the tech. I think it just needs marketing. I think it needs a, an ETH foundation needs like a revamp. And I know it's maybe going through that or something like that, but it just needs better marketing. It needs, you know, Solana's done a really good job of onboarding normies and building this culture and making it seem like a fun place to be. And ETH doesn't have any of that. It just seems like this sort of like academic thing, which is not attracting retail investors, despite it having an ETF.

24:49So I think like they need like a whole new like marketing plan and they need to use the advantage that they have over other alts and having an ETF and figuring out ways to educate and reach out to people who perhaps are in Bitcoin ETF so they can understand ETH better. Like it just needs, it needs better branding. I can't believe I'm saying this because I know this is probably against everything that like stands for. Yeah, but that's what it needs. So maybe to kind of bring all this together, I think a lot of people would have had part of their portfolio in high risk stuff, just like Ian, you did, but down, down quite a lot over the last few weeks.

25:36How would you rebuild the portfolio? Let's start objectively like you've got 100 % meme coins and they're down. What do you think you should be earning for the next few months? So this is what, let's say it's six month time horizon? Yeah. let's be like look I'm down I'm not dead I need to work out if I should be holding on to this stuff what amount should I keep in my memes or AI or like how would you rebuild the portfolio I would say let's say like 50 % Bitcoin I would say 20 I'd say maybe like this is like a slightly more defensive portfolio but let's say like 60 % Bitcoin 30 % other L1s and 10 % AI that's how I would I would structure it and I wouldn't I honestly wouldn't buy just normal meme coins here like I really wouldn't for a six month hold I wouldn't like if you're if you're in the trenches and you're gambling meme coins and you're trading them in and out fine but I wouldn't buy meme coins here and I'm not just saying that as like a mid-curver.

26:53Like obviously, if you listen to the show the entire of last year, my entire portfolio was meme coins and that's when I was pretty bullish on that space. But I'm not that bullish at all on being able to buy and hold a standard meme coin for the next six months. So I wouldn't, I don't have any meme coins. Like if I own anything that's meme related, it's within AI. It has some AI connectivity to it. That's stuff like Rekt. but other than that, I don't have any meatloins. So stick to AI, basically, because you think that's going to be the strongest bounce. So I think I would, I still think there's some good altcoin stories there, but I think knowing this from previous, kind of let's say chop periods, the ones that outperform are generally the revenue producing ones.

27:41Like I remember like RLB through that period. So I would own, I would definitely get into something like Bitcoin or JLP. Like JLP is probably my favorite asset right now, which is the basket of majors plus, which earns you yield on Jupiter perps. Then I probably have about, like you said, 40 or 50 % in that. Then I'd look at stuff like on the L1 side, like you said, something like hype might be interesting here because of the amount of revenue it's generating. I'd look at Radium I'd look at Jupiter so I'd probably have 20-30 % of my bag in that and then maybe the final 20 % I kind of agree with you I think the I'd pick AI memes so I'd pick something like Farquhar and I'll go but because I think that's the only thing I can really feels like it's the sureest better for a six month period but it's tough if i was only for like the next month stuff like ai16z or arc like ai16z is now beats solana as the most popular open source protocol ever created by a um by a crypto team it does feel as though that the optionality of something like that 350 million seems crazy to me um so i if i was doing it for the next month i do think i do think i'd look at a lot more of these ai utility coins and be like um yeah maybe i'll play them but the the outside risk is yeah you could it sounds as though we're going to get a coin from from tons of different people still like and there's there are stables now kind of weighing the wings to buy that um a bit more than there were last time like solana stables have broken out to 12 or 13 billion i think now so that's kind of been up only um but i do think we'll get a coin from kick we'll get a coin from maybe Twitch or get a coin from GameStop or get a coin maybe from Kanye West.

29:41It's very, very clear we're going to get a lot of new coins in this world. And you have to be wary of that even for short-term holds in those. It feels like, you know, we've seen some, obviously we've seen some of those coins come and so far they've all come on Solana. Like I find it very hard to think any of these coins won't come on Sol. So that kind of makes me pretty bullish in Sol as well. It just feels like if you're gambling the stuff, you need to have liquid Sol. And I think more and more people will realize they need to have liquid Sol. That's the other trade that I think is still really interesting here.

30:18The idea of maybe Sol, FDV, flipping, ETH.

30:25That's something I think is worth, especially with Sol back down now towards 200. I think that's another thing worth thinking about because we're, what, almost 50 % off, 30, 40 % off the highs that we saw earlier this year when Trump came. Imagine if you have, and I agree with you, I think we're going to see all this big stuff release coins by the end of the year. I think it's all going to be in Seoul. Yeah, I really like Seoul. I continue to think that is one of my favorite of the majors. JLP as an asset is generally geared towards Seoul as well. So if you want to own kind of soul exposure in a basket, which is geared mainly towards soul, that's not a bad one.

31:10But I think, you know, obviously got the unlocks this month, next month. Then I think it's in a good spot. I still think it's a really good spot. It got caught in, let's say, the crosswinds of this move in Bitcoin dominance. But I do think that's relatively strong. The only other one that's come up on this whole like revenue generating L1s is Tron, if you've ever looked at that, which has been a coin like associated with Justin Sun, HCX. But just because they are now seemingly tied to World Liberty Financial, and it feels unlikely that we're going to get a situation where U.S. regulation is that tough.

31:52I think the SEC looks like it's dropping a lot of cases at the moment. it's now looking like it's going to accept a bunch of ETFs. It suddenly feels as though that one, which has easily been the biggest revenue generator of the L1s, that one's held up okay. And I've looked a bit more at it. I don't know if you can buy it on US exchanges, but you can buy it on a bunch of other different more international exchanges. So that's the only other one I'm looking at. It does feel as though we are going to get a, like you said, if you are just focused on Bitcoin though, It does feel as though we are going to get a bunch of states now FOMOing in.

32:27I think there's nearly 15 states which have active Bitcoin reserve bills at the moment. And they are seemingly like biting it out for who's going to be the first to implement some sort of Bitcoin reserve. You have the Czech National Bank, sorry, the Central Bank came out and said they're going to allocate part of their reserves to Bitcoin. That's the first major central bank I've seen. and you have various companies around the world coming in and saying, yeah, we're going to allocate part of our treasury to Bitcoin. There is something to be said that like stop trying to degen so hard when you have such an obvious trade sitting there in that you have this global game theory of everyone trying to buy Bitcoin.

33:18you know one of the best or easiest trades last year was the Bitcoin Solana barbell and I'm starting to think well not starting to think I do think we're going to see that continue to be a strong trade this year like I don't see how you go wrong if you're bullish on the market I don't see how you can go wrong with a trade like that yeah just a Bitcoin Solana barbell and maybe you spend some of that Sol on doing sort of like the DGN trading on the side because it will I think you're right we're going to see so many coins in Sol so you want to have liquid Sol to try and catch some of those and then it's like in 2021 you trade NFTs to try and multiply your ETH because that was the thing that kept going higher yeah and last year I don't really think most people traded meme coins to multiply their Sol I felt like most people found meme coins to hold and try and just like make money but maybe this year the game is to you know trade the meme coins to try and multiply your soul just build a big stack of soul while you hold bitcoin against it like I think that's probably now feels like a good sweet spot to me if you're not trenching 24-7.

34:34In a sideways market I would bitcoin and soul barbell does seem like one of the strongest I think the the second bit of this question really does become is this a six-month thing or is it a three-month thing or is it a two-month thing from here or is it are we going to break out next month or this month um because i do think that once bitcoin hits a new all-time high and breaks out like 110 and suddenly just like it when it was a you know ranging for a while in um last year you saw all the degen activity really started to happen like breaking out new highs when we hit a new high in bitcoin i do think that's when you want to start having a more risky portfolio um how long how long do you think this chop chop could be here do you think it's going to be one of the shorter chops like normally after like a really long we had nine months last year um if this is a bull market you would assume that this one would be slightly shorter than that uh and then maybe shorter after that and and that would be the continuation of a bull market are you what's your sense are we lock are you locking down for six months?