In short
Real Vision Podcast: Episode Summary
Episode Title
Rekt Vision: Crypto NUKING on Disappointing US Jobs Data
Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts Ovie "OSF" Faruq and Michael "Mando" Anderson analyze the impact of disappointing U.S. jobs data on cryptocurrency markets. They discuss market sentiments, potential buying opportunities, and key upcoming events that could influence crypto investments.
Key Themes and Discussions
- Current Market Sentiment
- Disappointing Jobs Data: The release of U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data showed a slight miss, causing broader market downturns, including cryptocurrencies.
- Negative Trends: Observations regarding ongoing bearish sentiment in the crypto market, particularly with recent ETF outflows.
- Buying Opportunities
- Potential for Recovery: OSF believes the current dip might present a good buying opportunity as significant events (like elections and expected rate cuts) loom on the horizon.
- Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Emphasis on the DCA strategy as a way to buy at lower prices without trying to time the market perfectly.
- Future Catalysts
- Upcoming Rate Cuts: Anticipation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate market recovery.
- Election Impact: The upcoming U.S. elections could lead to substantial shifts in market dynamics depending on the outcome.
- Sector Analysis
- Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Discussion on the relative strength of Bitcoin compared to altcoins. OSF expresses skepticism about investing heavily in altcoins due to their volatility.
- Interest in Meme Coins and Gaming: There are signs of potential rebounds in meme coins and gaming sectors, although caution is advised.
Important Insights
- Crypto Market Cycles: Historical patterns suggest that volatility often accompanies major announcements, and buying during downturns can be advantageous.
- Focus on Quality Assets: Preference for investing in well-established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin rather than lesser-known altcoins.
Key Takeaways
- Market Awareness: The analysis highlights the importance of being aware of macroeconomic trends and their potential impact on cryptocurrency investments.
- Bullish Outlook for Q4: A general belief that the fourth quarter could see positive movements in the crypto market if major market catalysts unfold favorably.
- Engagement with Community: Encouragement for audience engagement regarding predictions on interest rate decisions and market movement.
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Conclusion The episode combines market analysis with strategic advice for investors, focusing on navigating the current turbulent environment in cryptocurrency. The hosts emphasize a cautious yet optimistic approach, with specific strategies for capitalizing on potential market recoveries in the near future.
Additional Resources
- Kraken OTC: For personalized trading services, visit [Kraken OTC](https://realvision.com/krakenOTC2024).
- Real Vision Membership: For deeper insights and analysis, consider subscribing to Real Vision.
Call to Action Listeners are encouraged to share their thoughts on expected rate cuts and engage with the content on various platforms, including social media and the Real Vision website.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Here's a message from the show sponsors Kraken. Make large crypto trades with Kraken OTC. Execute orders of more than$100 ,000 off the open exchange through the premium OTC trading service. Get 24-7 access to deep liquidity, minimal slippage, competitive execution, and settlement services. Chat securely with the Trade Desk for a personalized, high-touch service, or use the self-service RFQ for super-fast automated OTC trading. This is not investment advice. crypto trading involves a risk of loss and is offered to US customers through Payward Interactive Inc. For more information, go to realvision.com forward slash Kraken OTC.
0:57Hello, everyone. We are back again as the market tanks here, obviously, with OSF. Just wanted to start very briefly. Real Vision is turning 10 this month. Congratulations, Real Vision. To mark the occasion, we're going to have a special discount for anyone who's looking to sign up. We obviously do one show in every four on there as well, like a Q &A show. So if you like the show, you want to get more involved, use code BDAY10 at realvision.com. Bday10 at realvision.com. And you should get a specialty discount on memberships. Okay, well, let's get back into what's been going on in the market. And yeah, not really a cause for celebration again.
1:41As per usual, we go live and the market is completely dumping on a Friday. We've just had NFPs come out, which were a very slight miss. I think they came in about 20K below expectations. But broader markets are falling, as is crypto. So how are you doing, OSF? How are you doing in this downward trend? Yeah, look, I think I've often been called the walking, talking, fear and greed index on the show. But my sentiment is changing. I think we've had the choppy summer. We've had the poor price section. We've had this massive bleed in alts that we've talked about at length on the show since we started it and it's happened.
2:26we've had the pullback in meme coins and we've had a pullback in majors now. So for me, this presents a buying opportunity. I think, as I said last week, if you're going to have a go at this market, now's the time to do it. We are about two months away from elections. We're about a week and a half away from rate cuts. And I think things will change. I think things will shift and I think we can have a good Q4 and I think this presents a really good buying opportunity. So I guess for me, like I've been a bit more cautious over the last couple of months. I haven't deployed a lot of capital now with things dropping.
3:01I feel like I'm adding stuff here in various spots. Like I bought some Bitcoin this week. I bought a meme coin today as well. I'm looking to add various things as they go lower. I think it's good. If you're in a position where you have capital and you've kept some powder dry, these are great markets to be able to buy things at great prices at. and DCA lower and play for that big wave of Q4. I think lots of people will tell you, oh, there's so consensus that we're going to have rate cuts and rallying Q4, but at the end of the day, it just feels like everyone is all in and no one has ammo to be able to add at these levels.
3:35And that's perhaps why we're seeing this price action. So yeah, I don't know. Like I think I'm bullish. Like I think this is going to be a good buying opportunity. I'm not saying this is the bottom. You don't have to call the bottom to be bullish. and I think you want to be able to DCA lower and lower if it goes lower. But I think these levels now are going to prove to be good buying levels in three to six months' time. And these levels are lower than where we were at the beginning of summer when I felt like I was more cautious. So for me, you know, things have, cogs have turned in my head and have kind of pivoted a bit and I'm kind of thinking like this is a good entry point, I think.
4:17Yeah. And we spoke about it quite a lot this week. I kind of agree with that sentiment. Maybe we'll get into what's actually really happened this week. Because it's been... I wouldn't say there's been that much news coming into crypto. Just that there's been a bearish sentiment. There's nothing to really point to being like, oh, that's the thing that we went lower. You have seen a broader sell-off in stocks, which I think is often the case in September. September often, as we know, you get back to the desk after a holiday, or everyone does, and there's a little bit of volatility. Everyone starts pushing stuff around.
4:49And then normally it starts to die down kind of into October. And crypto traditionally has been that case. You've had a weak September followed by a very, very strong October. Obviously, this year, we have rate cuts starting. We have a US election. There's a lot of stuff to be happening in the final quarter. Both of which I think could be very bullish outcomes for crypto. But this week, yeah, it wasn't really that much. We've seen outflows from the ETFs. And I think people have particularly been looking at the ETF as being a little bit of a... You know, it hasn't really picked up. Volumes are low.
5:27Outflows have kind of... Net outflows at least have continued. And that maybe puts a little bit of a question mark on the broader adoption of Tradvind crypto. We've also seen some outflows from the Bitcoin ETF as well. but I think even today it looks like VanEck they're actually going to close down one of their futures ETFs which has caused a lot of headlines that's not really great that you start to see products start to get shut down because you're not really seeing enough demand and then I think a lot of people are kind of heading towards the big conferences that happen over the next two weeks so you have you've had Korean blockchain Korean blockchain week I think it's called yeah this week next week and the week after you have you have Breakpoint and you have you have Token 2049 of which people are expecting a bunch of different positive headlines so maybe we get a little reversal around that traditionally I think Solana's had very very good period leading up into those sort of conferences so there's definitely some bullishness that we will see that we'll see those conferences kind of mark the bottom in some of these coins.
6:35Is there anything other than I would say it looking a little bit low or it we're selling off with macro that makes you feel like this could be a turning point? Is there anything you're looking for as a catalyst going into Q4? A catalyst to go higher? Yeah. Yeah, look, I think there's a couple of things coming up in the next three months, two months. One is rate cuts. the entire world knows there's going to be rate cuts on the 18th of September which is when I think the FOMC is right now I think it's a 50-50 probability being priced in by markets as to whether it's a 25 basis point rate cut or a 50 basis point rate cut whichever one it is I don't think really matters that much I think this is going to sort of be like previous FOMCs where we knew they were going to hold we knew they weren't going to cut But what was more important was like what they said at the press conference.
7:38Because like the act of cutting rates in September is a foregone conclusion. And the unknown part, the more important part actually is what they're planning for October, November, December. What does the dot plot look like at the FOMC on the 18th? So that to me is more important because if Powell at Jackson Hole was very dovish. And if he comes across in a couple of weeks and says, you know, we've overshot, you know, we've waited too long or inflation is no longer a problem. We're concerned about the labor market and we will do whatever it takes. We will be aggressive. You know, all this stuff we used to hear 10 years ago, a famous quote by the one and only...
8:20You think he's going to come out and say, we're going to do whatever it takes. One and only Mario Draghi. Draghi, that's it? Draghi, is that it? Or was it Jean-Claude Trichet? I can't remember. But... When you get that sort of messaging, stuff really rallies. And all he has to really say is like, we're keeping a strong eye on the economy and we will act if we need to act. And remember, it's not like we're sitting here with the Fed base rate at 100 basis points where they can only really do like three or four rate cuts and then they have to do QE and all that kind of stuff. Like sitting here with the Fed base rate at like 550 basis points, They have a ton of room to cut rates and move aggressively and move very quickly if they need to, without having to go down the path of QE and all this other stuff that people get worried about.
9:10So I think the Fed's in quite a strong position. And I think they can just like turn on the aggression very quickly if they need to. And that's what I think is important here. Like, do we start to see messaging from Powell, which says that? And there are lots of headlines out here today. I think I saw something at Headline today saying Williams talking about front-loading rate cuts if we need to. These guys are going to be trigger-happy if they need to, I think. And don't forget, we're still two months out away from elections. So I think that's the important thing. It's not really about the fact that the September rate cuts priced in.
9:45It's more about the fact that is the Fed's potential dovishness priced in here? And I don't think it is. Prediction markets are saying about four rate cuts. So we're kind of in that sort of ballpark. So maybe we are talking about aggressive cutting. I think the main thing here is just to see if the economy holds up. But we really sold off today just because it was slightly weaker than expectations. And people are just hoping to see that soft landing preserves. But I agree with you. There is a lot of room for easing. And this is, you know, we're coming from a period of quantitative tightening plus very high rates.
10:28Like the Fed really does have quite a lot of room to turn on the taps if it wants to. And this is a time where already where global liquidity is starting to move higher again. I think that hit another all-time high of just over 90 and a half trillion this week even. So to be in that sort of state, to have sentiment this low, it does feel like a right moment to look at the market again. I do think that there is something to be said, though, that we could test the high 40s, mid 40s. You had Peter Brandt, Arthur Hayes, who are both, you know, Peter Brandt's a very well-known trader. Arthur Hayes is one of the, well, kind of infamous figure in crypto.
11:12So, but both saying that we've kind of, we have this, we're hitting lower highs, lower lows for the last few months, right? If you look at the Bitcoin chart for the last few months, this has been lower highs, lower lows. The last low, I think hit at 50K or 49K. So I think people are saying, you know, this could go to kind of 44 to 46K around that sort of level. And then hopefully, hopefully we see a bounce. I do think that that kind of lines up with my view too. I do think we could head back to that sort of level, but that would be a really good buying opportunity into Q4 when you have liquidity going higher, you have potentially a very bullish scenario coming out of the election if Donald Trump were to win, and you have things like the FTX estate giving back$16 billion to crypto investors, which I think would be, that would be a lot of money potentially coming back into the space.
12:03So what do you think that, like, if you're really bullish, how are you getting into the market here? Like knowing that it could get a little bit choppy still. Yeah, look, like I said, I'm not calling a bottom here and I'm not just going all in at this level. I think you have to play it wisely. I think you have to DCA. I think you have to have levels where you'll add, put in more capital at lower levels. Theoretically speaking, in my opinion, this type of market is much easier to trade and much easier to invest in in a market where everything is ripping, right? When everything's ripping, you're just like trying to find out which is going to be the next thing that's going to go up 100%.
12:45And you buy something, then you get really annoyed when the other thing goes up 100%. It's just like you don't know what to do. Whereas here, it's like everything is going lower. And you can just keep it as simple as just buying Bitcoin. And be like, cool, I can now buy Bitcoin at 58k, now 56k, 55k, 54k, 53k. Like keep averaging down these levels and lower your entry costs, right? Whereas when Bitcoin's at like 72K and just like, oh man, should I buy it now? Is it going to break out? Or what do I do here? You can be much more mechanical at these levels. I think that's the play here, just to pick your assets that you think will do well.
13:21And I would stick to high probability assets, like stuff like major, stuff like Bitcoin. I've sort of been very skeptical on alts the entire time since we started BrecVision. And I wouldn't really change that here other than try and take a gamble on some stuff. but many alts may not really bounce back but you know Bitcoin will so why don't you just take the high probability bet now and then when it becomes clearer and a better environment you can then start to go down the risk curve a bit. So I think like majors for me is where you want to do it and I think you just want to average down and stay patient and trust the process I think.
13:56And there's going to be a moment in time I'm telling you there's going to be a moment in time in the next two months where stuff's going to be ripping and everyone's going to be fomping back in and it's going to be at higher levels probably than where we are now. And someone listening to this show today, right now in the audience, is not going to buy today. They may even sell today because they're worried. And then things will look and feel better in the market and they'll end up buying back into the market at a higher price. And that's how you just keep selling low and buying high, which is bizarrely what most people seem to do.
14:27You've got to buy it when it feels gross, right? You have to buy it when it just feels horrific. My best buys have always been when it feels horrific. And I think this isn't just like a random buy in the middle of a potential three-year bear market. This is a buy ahead of some big positive catalysts, one of which is literally a 50 % probability coin toss of Trump winning and everything going a lot higher.
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15:50That's actually been something that's kind of perplexed me a little bit because Nate Silver's models continues to go higher, but Trump's going to win again. I think it's up to around 60 % now. Polymarket, I think, has like a seven-point lead for Trump at the moment in that sort of range. But I kind of felt like crypto would start to rally again as that happened. Trump, again, was out this week saying, we're going to make the U.S. the home of crypto. And it looks like the family is launching some form of a DeFi project, of which there was various different rumors out again this week. But it definitely does feel like that could be a very bullish sentiment, particularly because RFK has also been kind of moved onto that ticket as well, who's been like a very, very big Bitcoin bull.
16:35So you're bullish. We're talking about potentially kind of, you know, we could theoretically hit the high 40s, particularly on Wix this month. It feels like macro is primed for a little bit of a wobble here, just as big global shifts happen with things like rate cuts. You tend to see, just to give a little bit of context there, There's a huge amount of money in global marketing. You would call it cross-asset strategy, basically. And when you start to see these sort of moves, they're often like long-term trend moves from stocks back to bonds. If there's a feeling that we could be on a very, very strong rate cut cycle here, then maybe you'll see a huge amount of money move back from equities to bonds.
17:22And those can normally be temporary sort of blips in the market. They can cause technical sort of shifts, but they can lead to huge amounts of volatility, particularly in these sort of months. This is where a lot of that sort of strategy for the rest of the year is kind of defined and even strategy for Q1 in the month of September. So that's when you tend to see a lot of volatility. So Coinbase has hit a seven month, I think, low today. Bitcoin is heading towards a, well, one month low. Solana is kind of hanging out of support ahead of breakpoint. and ETH, I think, just gave up its gains of the year today.
18:01Which of those is your favorite? I do think Sol is interesting here. I know we've talked about Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin for the last few days. I think Sol is interesting. I think there's, I can see a rally into Breakpoint, you know, like it's something that people faded last year and obviously that's when Fire Dancer was announced and we had this great big rally afterwards. the conference itself may be a sell the news event but it's the sort of thing you can see people speculating in the run up to it so I think we're early up to that where I could see Seoul outperforming the other two there now going forward in time three months down the line, six months down the line, twelve months down the line Seoul has huge unlocks and that's something that would be concerning to me for 2025 or even as we start to approach the dates of those unlocks So I kind of like sold for a trade over, let's say, the next month.
18:58But I would feel more confident holding Bitcoin. ETH, I just don't even know what to really think, to be honest with you. Like, it's obviously traded horrifically and probably has the lowest sentiment it's ever had since I've, at least since I've been in crypto. So it makes you wonder whether it's like something you're supposed to take the other side of or whether it just is just like a, you know, a chain that will never pump again. I don't really know. There's a huge debate happening right now. Even ETH devs and like on bank links who are very, very big ETH bulls about the whole L1, L2, where will the value flow?
19:38And a lot of people are starting to say, you know, the L2s, they are posting a fraction of their fees back to ETH. like a really, really small amount. And there's a lot of questions now about whether ETH really had the scale to make those sort of changes to its recent upgrade, which basically changed that sort of dynamic of revenue slash costs. And it does feel as though there's like an internal strife, even within ETH, that this is going to be a long time for it to get back to the sort of revenue generating fees, at least at the L1 layer than it was before. So I still feel as though there's a lot of internal strife on ETH.
20:25Even if you like it as a chain, you think that it can win the battle on things like tokenization over the medium term. On Solana, I agree with you. We put it up there before, but on average, it's rambling something like 30 % to 60 % around Breakpoint. We will be looking for some major headlines there around Firedancer, around some other bigger applications. Mert, who's one of the major devs, who's kind of in Azure, I think at the moment, has been saying there's at least three other major announcements coming for Solana, even outside of the conference. So they're clearly going to keep on pushing things, particularly on the infrastructure level.
21:01But the two things that really, really get to me there are, yes, you have a slowdown in meme point activity, probably a big one, which is kind of showing up now substantially in the fees and in the DeFi volumes. And then secondly, it's those unlocks. So Solana obviously does have a decent amount more inflation than the other two chains. But I just think you can create a lot of FUD around unlocks. These are the unlocks from the FTX estate mainly, which was sold to Pantera and a bunch of other hedge funds. But they're still on the same unlock schedule. It's over four years, but a lot of it is happening in 2025 in that Q1.
21:38I think that's when a big chunk of it comes out. and they bought it between kind of 90 to 100. I think the last day actually traded around 120. But I can imagine some of that sells. Who knows? Some of these hedge funds, they just don't sell. Pantera, maybe they sell. Multicoin Capital, who knows? But Pantera, maybe. So it does feel as though there could be some FUD going into Q4 around that. So I'm a little bit more cautious around it. And then I was in JLP, like I said, for the majority of this year even. And I'm now moving into Bitcoin. I want to have more risk because obviously JLP is 35 % stables.
22:22But also because I don't love the ETH and SOL story going into Q4 as much as I like it for Bitcoin. I just feel like just owning more Bitcoin feels like the right trade into Q4. But this feels like a buying opportunity to me too. I do think, yeah, we'll probably, we could kiss those sort of lows of around 48, 46K. But if it's at 46K and we're going into an election, which Donald Trump is 60 % likely to win, and he's been talking about a Bitcoin reserve. Yeah, exactly. Like you're telling me that you're going to have an opportunity to buy that. That just feels like the sort of thing that could absolutely fly, particularly because you're also into an easing cycle globally.
23:02Gold has been going high. You've got the FTX estate coming out. Like that just feels to me like a home run sort of trade. And I don't really want to mess it up by trying to pick a beta trade to it. I just want to be right. I just think it's good for Bitcoin. That's what I think. Like 48k or 45k, 44k, even 40k. It's like, it's not crazy far away from where we are now. It's what, like a 20, 30 % drop on Bitcoin. So averaging down now from here to there if you need to, I think is the move. I think you have to start getting skin in the game here because we have had massive pullback across the board.
23:45And I think trying to get too cute waiting for that 48k level to then go all in is pretty risky. You may just miss it, I think. So I think you have to start deploying now, just systematically averaging down as we go lower. And I hope Trump wins. I've got a DCA going for the next 45, well, roughly the next 45 days. It started the 1st of September or, well, 3rd of September. But I feel as though two weeks before that election or two or three weeks, that's when it'll really start to pick up, I think. And people will start to really start to price that in. So I'm kind of hopeful for that sort of period.
24:25And I also think you, like I said, you have FTX probably coming towards the end of that year or at least bullishness around FTX, even if it is delayed until Q1. There's been some questions about the settlement there with the bankruptcy judge. But I do think that's going to be a very bullish period. And then I think you're also going to see an unlock of a number of different wealth managers start to move into crypto. You also saw Qatar this week come out with a regulatory framework for crypto, which there's been a lot of rumors that they are Mr. 100 or that their sovereign wealth fund had been buying a lot of crypto.
24:57So maybe that paves the way for them potentially coming in and being a bit more over, let's say, about buying it. And you had Russia this week basically saying we're going to go all in on crypto for payments. I just think that these are very, very bullish developments. Even though sentiment is terrible, utility conversations seem to be very, very tough right now. And even memes have been a very, very tough conversation. So I'm bullish. We're bullish. we realize this could go lower but we are basically moving to the most risk on I think we've both been for many many months yeah I agree with that I don't know if we want to go to the left curve the left curve corner stuff now it does feel like maybe that's not a not a bad time to look at it or maybe we should look just before that like in terms of sectors is there any altcoin sectors which you still think could come out of this the strongest we've spoken about that like is it memes, Dpin, DeFi, AI?
25:58If you were to get involved in into any of the sort of altcoin sectors, which of these do you think feels the strongest?
26:09I, having been cautious on meme coins for the past couple of months or so, one thing I would say about the way that they behave in terms of price action is every time Bitcoin does rally, you do get a bunch of meme coins going up like 10, 20%, maybe even like 50 % on some of the lower cap stuff. So it feels like when we get a Bitcoin rally, people just seem to have some money to throw into meme coins again and they go up. So I think given the move lower and lots of meme coins, maybe the larger cap stuff, even like mid cap stuff, you know, a lot of these things are down 50, 75 % off their highs.
26:48I think they've become interesting again here at these levels. it's a weird one because you know sometimes I think how do these people still have money to keep throwing back into Mooncoins and then I realized well you know lots of people aren't full-time crypto and people probably earn like a monthly salary and stuff and they're putting that into Mooncoins so I don't know I'm just thinking about the world outside of crypto yeah there's a world outside of crypto yeah so I do think now meme coins are more interesting and they do serve, they could potentially serve as a good like beta to Bitcoin but you have to be careful because I still say the same thing as I said a few weeks ago there's just so many different meme coins and the narratives and metas just change every week or every day and you have to make sure you're in the right stuff so there's maybe only like a handful of coins that have lasted for a year or so or longer that have had sticky communities and the other stuff is just like you have to watch out for bad actors and all that kind of stuff.
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27:48So it's pretty risky, but I think what I'm trying to say is it's hard to maybe pick which meme coins, but I do think a handful of meme coins will do really well when Bitcoin rebounds. In terms of altcoins, I think gaming could be really interesting again just because of the levels. A lot of that gaming stuff is down like 90%, 95 % off its highs that we saw in Jan, Feb, April and Q1. Jan, Feb, March and Q1. So I would look at that again. I think AI again as well, potentially. But the AI coins have held up a lot better than the other stuff. Have they? I mean, they bounce a little bit with NVIDIA.
28:30I'm kind of butchered again. Compared to gaming or other alts. Yeah. This week we actually had Helium come out, which is the mobile service provider in the US, the Deepin one, that was the strongest coin this week out of all the top 300. It was up about 20%. So I thought it was interesting. Barely any meme coins were higher this week. But you did have Deepin, a few DeFi coins. Just kind of think on maybe some bullies just around Trump.
29:04But I still think DeFi probably does the best as a bounce on the back of this. my personal view is that meme coins might take a I think they will have a parabolic exit for some of them but I do think they'll take longer that's my general view on it we might be in those longs for a few more months just because I still think that there's a lot of there was a lot of wealth on paper made in meme coins even in some of the top meme coins and you know those, you know the people in these sort of coins. Like they hold, they hold because they don't want to be seen to sell it. And then it goes all the way back down.
29:45And then you like, you get that bounce and they feel like they need to exit it because, oh my God, I just lost like six, seven figures worth of wealth if I'm the top holder of one of these coins. And it's just like, your mentality is horrific. So same with NFTs, exactly the same thing. And normally it just takes a little bit of time for that to just settle. You know what I mean? Like for someone not to come in and be like, right, actually, you know what, lads, I need to get out of this one on the first bounce. And you can kind of see that in these meme coins. They don't really rally from any sort of bounce at the moment, which just tells me that a lot of people made a lot of money on paper.
30:22And they're now having to kind of reassess probably if they want to be in this, if this is like their personality to kind of be in it forever. So I feel like that's where we're kind of at in the meme coin market. But that being said, you know as we come out the other side if bitcoin heads towards 100k like you'll see parabolic exits for some of that stuff and I think maybe that sort of move happens slightly delayed to some of the old points so before the election around the election I do think DeFi and maybe some of this deep in stuff could rally a little bit harder but I guess let's see we should go into the left curve corner stuff special section for people who are really just hit a gamble, which I guess is pretty much everyone.
31:08But it hasn't been the best week, I would say, for gamble stuff. We did see EtherVista, which is EtherAnswer to Pump.Fun launch this week. Kind of had this old school Microsoft Vista XP look to it. We had a ton of different meme coins launch on the back of it. Kind of a lot of ETH maxis, let's say, getting into the meme coin trading market, which has largely been dominated by Pump.Fun or even moved to Tron recently. You had Vista, which is their main coin, go to 30 million. You had Vista Dog, Vista Cat, a bunch of different other ones moved. It's interesting that here, unlike PumpFun, where the LP is burnt forever, that it's burnt for five days and they have special safe tokens, they call it, to avoid bots.
31:51But maybe we'll see some activity move back towards ETH for meme coin trading. Secondly, CryptoPunks led NFT sales again this week. I think there was one sale yesterday, which was more than all the top 10 other ETH NFTs combined. A 8 CryptoPunk sold for 1.5 million. A ZombiePunk sold for 600K. These are some big sales. You have to see CryptoPunks bounce back. That being said, they're down about 60 % from the last sale on that 8Punk. I think the last sale was around 4.5 million about a year ago. So big, big move lower in some of the more valuable punks there. Our NFTs, which is something I know Raoul has been big into, but that's been kind of the one bright spot.
32:37Some of the additions for XCopy have been selling as high as 50 ETH this week. You also had Refik Anadol's wins of Yawa Nawa up around 150 % in the last week. So a big, big move, particularly in the additions of some of the most well-known artists in the space. We had Fantasy Top. Fantasy Top is the trading game built on the L2 Blast. You saw a big pickup in volume since the recent lows, around 600 ETH of volume. They said today that they're now basically able to pay for all of the rewards plus their own burn. So they're now, as a company, doing pretty well. Volumes are up about 2x, like I said, from that recent lows, and it does seem to be leading a small resurgence, let's say, in the Blast ecosystem, which has been kind of down only for a while.
33:27And then finally, Nero. Nero is probably one of the most well-known memes to come out over the last couple of months. This is the new dog owned by the Doge owner. That was what it was named after. On ETH, that rallied all the way up to$300 million about a month ago. This week, it was down all the way to$25 million. So down over 90 % from that high. Although today, It got a Binance and an OKEx futures listing, which I think came as a massive surprise. And it's done a 6x. I think it went all the way back up to around$180 million. Okay, that's it for the left curve stuff. Do you want to talk about any of that?
34:06Yeah. Which one is the most interesting thing out of there? Well, I think let's just take a step back. Is there anything in the left curve stuff that you're more interested in? Are NFTs, meme coins, NFTs more broadly, like collections, which seem to be coming back? or have you been looking at Fantasy Top, Polymarket? Fantasy Top, no. I don't think there's any opportunity there for the average person. Really? That's what a lot of people are spending their ether at the moment. It's a fun game and I think people are probably farming the coin that will eventually launch, just kind of like airdrop farming.
34:43But I spent some time on it.
34:48Is this because you're not as high as you used to be? Is that what it is? it's not that I spent some time on it and I think it's I feel like it's a game that is really fun to play and it's and it's very addictive but you don't actually make that much money on it if that makes sense I wouldn't I wouldn't go in there to make money I agree with that yeah like if you're if you're a whale because of the of the way the price is distributed you don't really make much money and you have to spend quite a lot to buy the best cards if you're a non-whale and you're just playing with small you know small chips, then I think it's fun.
35:24But like, for me, it's not something I want to spend time on because it's like I can't put size into this and, you know, expect like decent returns from it other than hoping for an airdrop farm of a coin, which maybe could do well because it has some good mind show. It could do well, I guess. But, you know, it's also going to be on blast as well. So that's another thing you have to consider there. NFTs have been doing well recently. You have to also remember NFTs are denominated in ETH. So I'd love to see some data on dollar price action of NFTs. And I would imagine they're kind of flat, actually.
36:04Well, let's go into this a little bit. Would you buy one of these high-tier CryptoPunks here? Do you think that Ape which sold at 1.5 million is a good buy? Or are you too scared to be locked in ETH here? similarly a zombie traded for like I think 600k roughly yeah it was like 280 ETH yeah I do think those are good buys you know like I've been looking at CryptoPunks for a while and I had been I had thoughts about like should I just park some ETH in one of these like high end Punks you had your opportunity man although there is a I think it's an alien Punk maybe on no not an alien I think there's another zombie on the move, potentially.
36:47Yeah, there's some good punks that previously felt unobtainable, and now a bit more obtainable. We're still talking about a lot of money here. But do I think that's the best capital return on something? Liquidity adjusted, given that you can't easily access liquidity there because you can borrow against your punk, but you won't get all the liquidity? No. Is it something that's quite cool to do? say, oh, are you stoning a zombie punk or I want to say that? I think you get a lot of bragging rights for it, which is why I think people do it. I think I would need to be a lot more rich than I am now to buy one of these, I think.
37:29Do you still have your punk? I still have a punk, yeah. I haven't got one. I've been looking a little bit into it. I think I agree with you. I don't really want to be locked up in a very high value ETH asset. But I think I would look at kind of floor plus. I think there's some value there. Like a lot of the mid-tiers actually look really quite cheap to me. So I think I've got Top Hat Punk traded for like 32 weeks or something very, very recently. It feels as though some of those mid-tiers have people that aren't, you know, oh, I can just spend 1.5 million on a Punk and who cares. You've got some people that probably could use some of the money there.
38:11And I think you can probably get some good deals. So that's where I'm kind of looking. I think they'll always be like one of the best NFTs to own. I still do believe that. And they've been around since 2017. So they'll have another day in the sun, but you kind of have to buy one like appreciating Punk for what they are and appreciating the art and appreciating what it is because there are like costs associated with holding, there are opportunity costs associated with holding one, let's say. For sure. But if you're an art fan, I think now is a really exciting entry point on like rarer punks, I would say.
38:47Of which there isn't really on any other chain, right? On Solana, there isn't really that historical. And Bitcoin, you've seen some of the rarer sats, ordinals trade, but I haven't really heard about one of those trades for a while, right? It does feel as though that's really died down with the collapse of the runes coins and just general collapse in anyone making any money in this market. But maybe that comes back too. But it does feel as though if you're going to buy one piece of rare, let's say, crypto NFT, you're going to buy one of those punks, aren't you? Yeah. Or an X copy. All right. I think we should go into the questions then.
39:26Do you want to bring them up? You're normally the question master. Yeah. Let's move on to the questions. Before we get there, we have another thing just to bring you guys' attention to on Real Vision Pro. Real Vision's pro-crypto content. The chief crypto analyst, Jamie Cootes, discussed his two-part report on Ethereum with Ash Bennington. Jamie goes into an in-depth look at ETH's underperformance, scaling strategy, and future prospects. That conversation is available to pro-crypto members. You can watch it on the Real Vision website at realvision.com. I definitely will be checking that one out as I'm keen to get a bit more clued up on ETH and see if there is some glimmer of hope or way out for ETH.
40:22Hey, the slightest bit of hope, that thing could really correct against everything else. Brother, I think I saw today the ETH Foundation was selling more. It's every single day you just see it moves on chain. I feel like this L1 versus L2 question, this feels like this isn't going to be resolved that quickly. ETH is a slow moving beast. And if people feel as though they've made a massive misstep there, then that feels like something that could take years to kind of fix. Remember in 2021, we would like buy ETH. And if we wanted ETH beta, we'd buy Matic because it was like the only L2. And it was like, yeah, this is like clear ETH beta.
41:04and now it's just like, oh, you should buy like billions of L2s. Well, not billions, but like thousands of L2s, which is quite funny. Okay, questions. First one from Douglas from the RealVision website. So it's Friday and crypto is puking again. No worries, guys. Yes, my sincere apologies for once again. Yeah, if this is your first time watching the show, we literally go live on a Friday and Friday traditionally is just the worst day for crypto. For some reason, and everyone just sells everything before the weekend. And it's basically been down on average of around 5%, I think on every single episode we've done so far.
41:43So this is kind of par for the course. We are moving lower as we speak, by the way. Yeah, of course. Of course.
41:51So Douglas, Douglas says, I'm cashing in some gold today near all-time highs to pick up more Solana in the dip. Heads up, be of good cheer. it's a rectivision buying opportunity again. I like that trade. You know, as I said, I feel like these are good entry points. I think Sol is a major that's 50%, almost 50 % off its highest of the year. It's probably like 40%. I think that's a good buy. I think that's a good buy into breakpoint when everyone is sort of like panic selling. Is he buying Sol specifically, did he say? Yeah, cashing in some gold near all-time highs to pick up some soul in the dip.
42:31I think that's a... I think those are very different sort of trades, firstly. But I do think that that's not a bad way to think about it. The ones that I like the most, as I've just said, I like Coinbase stock actually here. I think Coinbase, just as we spoke about the whole L1 versus L2 narrative, Coinbase is going to own probably the most successful L2 that's going to come out over the next decade, it feels like, with base. So they've got a really good revenue generation. you know, protocol there. And it does feel as though their expansion could easily be much, much stronger after Trump comes into power as well.
43:09Like Trump coming in, I think is really bullish for Coinbase. And so I think my two favorite are probably Bitcoin and Coinbase. All right. Sounds good. Next comment from Amun Fain on YouTube. He's smiling, hair combed, and telling jokes. I'm going all in. Who's that? Is that me? I don't know who it is. Your hair looks more combed than mine does. Oh, really? Yeah. Well, I think we're both pretty smiley today. Me and Obi generally have a weekly meeting about where to put our bags. And this is one of the first times we've both agreed that the market just feels too scared for the opportunity. Like if in six weeks, I just know what the narrative is going to be and if you can buy Bitcoin around this sort of level now, even if it, right now we see like a flush because of rates, I'm telling you in six weeks, everyone's going to be talking about the election how bullish is crypto on the other side, FTX is going to be there yeah, rate cuts, the volatility maybe would have died down and we're really just talking about how many rate cuts they do before the end of the year, I just feel like you can foresee a very, very bullish set up there yeah
44:29Yeah, it is the first time we've both seen that we should add some risk here, isn't it? For a while, for a long time. Okay, next question from Babu on the Real Vision website. What happens if Kamala Harris wins? Is it better to take some off on the 4th of November, which I believe is the day before elections and also the day before on-flight night in the UK? Yeah, it's a little bit, it's a difficult one because I think you generally, and I see this with every single US election, you get a lot of polls around the time of the election and often that leads to a tightening of odds. So it becomes, I've generally started to see odds tighten towards the end of the election, at least in the US.
45:14Even if the result ends up being very, very different, you end up seeing like a big win for one side. so maybe maybe on like if we do see that rally and into the election maybe like the night before you might want to take a little bit off I don't think Kamala is that terrible either for crypto I generally feel as though you will get a markets like a resolution either way as long as it's not tight enough that you end up getting what happened last time whether it's like the talk of a recount massively or you might get riots. As long as it's clear enough who has won, then I do think you could see the market rally.
45:56That's exactly what happened last time, even when Biden came in. And Biden's been, his presidency has not been great for crypto or crypto policy. But I think you'll see a strong resolution. It does seem like Kamala's trying to make some indications that she's more pro-crypto. She's kind of taking crypto donations, or at least one of her super PACs is seemingly through Coinbase this week. There was some talk about her. I think the Ripple CEO came out, or co-founder came out as pro Kamala today. So she's winning over some people in crypto. It's just difficult to say. She's basically said absolutely nothing so far.
46:34So you have no idea on her policy. But I don't think it's going to be as bad as Biden. I think from what you said, something that really resonated with me was markets don't like uncertainty or markets like resolution. And right now it's like, oh, like who's good, who's bad, who's winning, who's losing. And it's a period of uncertainty, which does challenge and trouble markets. So a positive thing of Kamala winning, I guess, is that there is some sort of resolution and we know which way we're going. And we have just been in four years of Joe Biden, where crypto has actually rallied. So that's the counter argument to that.
47:20Next question from Peter in the Real Vision website. With Bitcoin struggling, some alts I'm watching are not breaking their low-level support. Are these signs of alts that you should be interested in, especially if over the next few weeks, Bitcoin continues to slide if these alts hold their last level of support? Yeah, it's an interesting one. Today, it does feel like Bitcoin dominance has gone lower. I think it's gone to just shy of 57%. So it's down about 1 % today. That being said, I just would never really fade the Bitcoin dominance chart, at least with this sort of setup. you have seen like Sui's gone higher today some of the other L1s that you know not soul killers but people have looked at as maybe the next soul have been a little bit stronger today Phantom I think is even higher on the day Sui's slightly higher on the day Ton is like in his own kind of issues at the moment so I don't think that's like a completely separate trade but maybe some of the L1s you could play other than Solana the Solana unlocks I just feel like and just just because of that drop off in the in the meme coin activity which I think could be a little bit more persistent I think I think maybe puts that one a little bit of a tougher trade but yeah maybe some of the L1s you could you could look at but I wouldn't I wouldn't make that 100 % of your portfolio let's put it that way I think Bitcoin's got a really good play here to do a 2x even potentially by the end of the year but I think I think it could go to 100k quite quite easily on a Trump presidency.
48:56So I think have a decent bit of your portfolio in and you should look at it if it's dipping that's great. You know that's great. So yeah that's how I look at it. I think in general when the market has a unilateral sell-off and there are some things that outperform like Alts maybe are today buying that strength has historically been a good way to trade because it shows you that people are wanting to buy that stuff even on a weekday, if that makes sense. Or maybe it shows you there's an existing short base there, people's shorts are trying to cover. Whatever it is, it shows you there are buyers of that on a weekday, which is generally good for the technicals of that coin.
49:38So, you know, today, maybe the reason why Bitcoin is selling off is because there's some Bitcoin specific selling from all that various, you know, sources of supply that we've talked about at length and maybe also just down so much that people are just bidding here. Maybe that's just the construct right now. And you could actually see a little bit of Bitcoin dominance pullback. I wouldn't be surprised by that. But generally speaking, buying stuff that shows strength on weekdays, that's the stuff that rallies back the hardest when the market actually rebounds.
50:14All right. Next question from Ludovico on the Real Vision website. Thoughts on Curve Finance, especially the new soft liquidation feature to borrow with or locking in CRV for weekly dividends. I personally haven't used that feature. I'm not familiar with it, but have you, Michael? I haven't looked at... I mean, I know Curve Finance. I didn't know they'd made a change to it. But yeah, it feels as though a bunch of these different DeFi coins feel like, like I said, I like them as plays into the election because I think you could end up seeing crypto policy come through at the end of this year. Curve is one of the most successful DeFi projects out there.
50:58Those pools are absolutely massive, and obviously they generate the convex yield part of it. It's a smart play. So if they're doing a similar sort of move, then yeah, I think that could be an interesting one. It's definitely that of a Camino on Solana 3 that I think would be interesting plays. All right, from Keith on the Real Vision website, RFK will add 3 % to 5 % to Trump, enough to push over. Should be a positive catalyst to finish Q4. I agree. I think Trump is favorite right now, and I think that should be a positive catalyst. That's my view. Yeah, interestingly, when he actually moved to officially kind of come part of the Trump campaign, or at least endorse him, his odds on polymarket Trump's odds on polymarket actually went slightly lower and I think that's mainly because he could have potentially split the ticket for the Democrats in some of the states but that being said I do think it's still bullish for Trump that this has happened or at least bullish for his odds that this has happened so maybe that is the deciding factor Alright last question from Melvin on the Real Vision website is it time to rotate into some soul memes or better to wait until two to three weeks before the election?
52:22I think if you're messing around with like low caps and small caps and stuff, I think it's better to wait because you just don't know what's going to survive until then. But I'm still like very cautious on like the general soul meme thing just because there is just so much supply and oversaturation and division of attention. I think you can do it for a trade and perhaps that time frame for a trade, picking the stuff that's like in vogue at that moment in time for a play into the elections could be a good move. I can see that. I think Sol, obviously I just buy Epic, but Sol memes, I think they're going to go through a period like NFTs did where you're going to have to realize which ones are actually probably good buys for longer than just the next month.
53:12I think as a sector because of the amount of supply and the lack of demand like I just said earlier in the show it feels like there's probably a lot of bag holders particularly ones that were up huge amounts like 6-7 figures that don't want to round trip everything so you will have on every single pump and you can see it, every single pump there's a seller maybe some of them aren't as strong as some of the others but there's at least one person that goes hey I don't want to round trip this I'm going to sell it And I think that takes months, genuinely. So I think you're probably going to be waiting to see which ones actually show some community.
53:51And then if you look at things like Mog, Mog had a very similar sort of move to this last year, right? It couldn't break 30 million. It went up to like 20 and then just smashed back down, smashed back down because the market wasn't there. It was all very PVP. And it feels like that in soul memes right now. But there will be a period in a year's time where some of those just absolutely gas. You know, they will just do absolutely huge moves. So I do think Seoul memes aren't the first thing that people are potentially reaching for. But that doesn't mean they can't be goodbyes, but you just have a longer time horizon.
54:25I think that's right. Two or three weeks before the election is how you want to time that kind of stuff because it's very hard to know what will survive in between now and then, I think. But yeah, with that, we're coming up to the end of the show. We haven't dropped even further. I think we're still hovering around 54k Bitcoin. Thank God. There's some respite for us at least. But thanks everyone for tuning in. Before we head off, there's a question for you guys to respond back to us in the replies to the YouTube channel or Twitter or wherever you're watching. How much do you think the Fed will cut rates by this month, if at all.
55:08So zero basis points, 25 basis points, 50 basis points, 75 or 100 if you're like super aggressive. Let us know your thoughts. Reply back in the comments. But that will wrap us up today for RectVision. Make sure you're following us on X. And also check out the Real Vision website and check out what the guys are doing to celebrate its 10th birthday. If you go to realvision.com forward slash birthday, you can find all the details there. And we will see you guys next Friday at 11.30 a.m. Eastern Time, 4.30 p.m. British Summer Time. Hope everyone has a great weekend and stay safe in the markets out there.
55:43Stay safe, guys.
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