REKT Vision: How Much Is Left in the SANTA RALLY? 🎅🎄

16 Dec 2024 · 1 h 4 min

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Real Vision Podcast Episode Notes: REKT Vision - How Much Is Left in the SANTA RALLY? 🎅🎄

Episode Overview Podcast Title: Real Vision: Finance & Investing Episode Title: REKT Vision: How Much Is Left in the SANTA RALLY? Host: Raoul Pal, CEO and Co-founder of Real Vision Guests: Ovie "OSF" Faruq and Michael "Mando" Anderson

Episode Description In this episode, the hosts discuss the current narratives driving the crypto market, including the potential of the ongoing rally, the implications of recent Bitcoin strategic reserve proposals in Texas, the dominance of AI coins, and market sentiment surrounding altcoins. The discussion provides insights into the broader financial landscape and investment strategies.

Key Topics Discussed

  1. Current Market Status
  2. Bitcoin's Performance
  3. Bitcoin recently surpassed the $100K mark, experiencing volatility with dips to around $90K.
  4. A significant inflow of $2 billion into Bitcoin ETFs over the past week indicates strong market interest.
  • Market Sentiment
  • Despite Bitcoin's gains, there remains a sense of dissatisfaction within the market.
  • A notable shift from Bitcoin to altcoins is observed, raising questions about future Bitcoin dominance.
  1. Altcoin Dynamics
  2. Bitcoin Dominance
  3. Current dominance fluctuated around 56%, with expectations of a potential drop to 50% as altcoins rally.
  4. Opportunity for a significant alt season anticipated in January, as retail investors become active.
  • Investor Sentiment
  • Many newer investors feel pressure to match the gains of earlier adopters, which may affect market behavior.
  • The hosts emphasize the challenges of profit-taking and the importance of cautious investment strategies.
  1. AI and Meme Coins
  2. Rise of AI Coins
  3. A significant influx of interest in AI-based cryptocurrencies, with some experiencing rapid price increases (e.g., Fartcoin).
  4. Discussion around the challenges of valuing AI coins and the risks associated with speculative investments.
  • Market Trends
  • Broader trends favoring meme and AI coins over traditional investments suggest a shift in where retail investors are placing their bets.
  1. NFT Market Resurgence
  2. NFTs and Their Performance
  3. NFTs are seeing renewed interest, particularly with the rise of projects like Pudgy Penguins.
  4. The speculation around NFTs launching tokens is creating a bullish environment for established NFT projects.
  1. Discussion of Major Cryptocurrencies
  2. Ethereum (ETH) vs. Bitcoin (BTC) vs. Solana (SOL) vs. SUI
  3. Preference for ETH over other altcoins due to its strong institutional demand.
  4. SUI is positioned as a promising risk-on asset, while traditional favorites like SOL face uncertainty due to upcoming unlocks.
  1. DeFi Developments
  2. Hyperliquid's Growth
  3. The success of Hyperliquid, a new decentralized exchange (DEX) with notable performance, indicates investor interest in new DeFi projects.

Key Takeaways

  • Market Outlook
  • The ongoing SANTA RALLY may have more momentum, but caution is advised as the potential for market corrections exists.
  • A significant retail influx into the crypto market could catalyze alt season, particularly in January.
  • Investment Strategy
  • Investors are encouraged to consider the long-term viability of assets rather than chasing quick profits.
  • The importance of understanding market cycles and the specific narratives driving current trends is emphasized.

Conclusion The episode captures the dynamic nature of the current crypto market, reflecting on investor sentiment, emerging trends in AI and meme coins, and the resurgence of NFTs. The hosts provide a balanced perspective on the opportunities and risks present in the financial landscape, urging listeners to remain vigilant and informed as they navigate their investment journeys.

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Transcript

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1:29Thank you so much.

1:40Well, hello, everyone, for another episode of Wrecked Vision. Another lovely day with Bitcoin above 100k. We are close to all-time highs. There were a couple of pretty nasty wicks down to around 90k this week. I think we've had two of those in the last 10 days. But we are now settling above 100k. Funding is low. They've had 2 billion of inflows into the ETF over the last 10 days. You've had 11 days of straight inflows into the Bitcoin ETF. It's all looking pretty good, I would say, OSF. How are you feeling? I really like that intro. You had a very soothing voice. It sort of reminds me of like listening to classic FM.

2:27Yeah, that's what I've been trying to audition for from the start. Or even jazz FM. It could have been even jazz FM, like one of those two. Late night jazz as we go about 100k. Exactly. It had exactly that vibe. Like let the tone just continue a little bit too long. You linger on each one. anyway let's get back to a regular scheduled programming how you feel about the market yeah pretty good i mean um the december rally as we predicted and hoped for is underway it's funny because i just think you know bitcoin's above 100k right now lots of mean coins and the billions of dollars market cap, even altcoins have started to rally.

3:14Yeah, everyone still seems so unsatisfied. And everyone's like, oh, we're just waiting for that, this big moment, the big breakout. So I just wonder sometimes, have we had it? Is this it? Like, is there more to come? I mean, I do think and believe there's more to come, but yeah, just doesn't matter like how high we get to on Bitcoin, people just still seem unsatisfied. And I personally think that's a sign of perhaps positioning in terms of Bitcoin versus alts. and I think maybe if we see Bitcoin dominance drop to like 50 or 45 percent um with Bitcoin still above 100k that's when I think you start to see people getting like super um super happy and that's kind of where I feel like yeah I mean I think people have made money this this cycle for sure right if you're in Bitcoin you made money if you were in ETH you made money if you're in a salon you made money if you're in a ult you made money I think some of the salon ecosystem which was really hot that faded um because altcoins took over right we had this like rotation away from some of the left curve meme coins to dino coins altcoins which all pumped and then now it feels as though we've had like a slight that those have stopped pumping a little bit and then people have looked for more of the um the other left curve stuff happening so i would agree with what you're saying to a certain extent does feel like some of the people that maybe were on CT every single week, they haven't had the best last month.

4:42I think a lot of them actually maybe even retraced a lot of the gains that they initially had. And that's largely because I think a lot of people were in the Solana ecosystem and Solana ecosystem coins didn't have the best month. But I think that is starting to change. It feels like right now. But I would agree with you. I also think you should be wary, right? Like if Bitcoin could easily go to 90k again, it's done that twice. and some of these coins can be down a lot. So I'm very, very wary of that. I have said, you know, when I think to be the most wary, which is probably about four weeks from now.

5:20But I think we've probably got a little bit more juice in it until then around the inauguration, I'll be reducing. But yeah, I would definitely be wary of that sort of sentiment too, in that people are in the greed bit of the market, even though they're probably maybe even up. They're like, oh, this person made some crazy amount. I need to have made that amount or I've been a failure this cycle. And you forget how hard it is to make money in a bear, you know? So it's a period of abundance, but it's not, it's obviously a bit more spread out. And I think people were expecting it to just be on their bags.

5:56And that's been a bit more different. Is that how you would read it as well? Yeah, I think that's right. I think that's probably right. And I think it's also a function of at what point in the cycle did you enter or put on a large amount of risk? And something that's notable, I think, in the last few weeks since Trump's victory is that we've had a big retail influx. We've had people wake up and re-enter the market. Maybe that partially explains the move in the dino coins. And so, you know, if you've just come back, having been off for two years, or if you've just entered crypto, you may not have made these crazy gains that some other people have made.

6:38And so you need a bit longer to feel, to be and feel happier, I think. So there's probably an element of that too, I think. This kind of feels like, to me, the point at which I entered crypto in 2021, where it's like, oh man i wish i owned this stuff from a year ago when these guys got a crazy valuations and now i feel like i'm playing for like a three or five x rather than like a hundred x like these guys managed to get um or even a two x for some of these things it feels like like you're hoping for like the last bits of the pump i think we probably will be a very similar sort of move here where we will get it won't be the end of the cycle but i think we're going to get a period where a lot of that gets flushed out just like we had in 2021 and then um we probably hit an all-time high later in 2025 in my opinion like i think we are going to get like some big flushes in q1 um and that's i have no idea what will cause it i'm just telling you that i think that's that's how it will play out as well because you see people coming in and that you're not too sure like how far along they're chasing those gains um and yeah they need to lose a little bit of money first yeah yeah exactly ever wanted to explore the world of online trading but haven't dared try the futures market is more active now than ever and plus 500 futures is the perfect place to start plus 500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments s &p 500 nasdaq bitcoin gas and much more explore equity indices energy metals forex crypto and beyond with a simple and intuitive platform you can trade from anywhere right from your phone deposit with a minimum of a hundred dollars and experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for see a trading opportunity you'll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open not sure if you're ready not a problem plus 500 gives you an unlimited risk-free demo account with charts and analytics tools for you to practice on with over 20 years of experience plus 500 is your gateway to the markets visit us.plus500.com to learn more trading and futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone not all applicants will qualify plus 500 it's trading with a plus so let's go through the majors because it has been an interesting week i think for for like i guess xrp has now flipped um solana so technically that is also one of the main majors but we'll start bitcoin bitcoin's had a very strong period to uh continues to see massive inflows obviously a lot of underpinning of this is is all the um the bitcoin reserve stuff that we're hearing from the US.

9:25We had Russia, we had Brazil, we've had a number of other countries and even states in the US mentioned Bitcoin reserves. And we had a little bit of a dip, levered take out on no real news, but we went down to like 90 to 93K a few times. And then after that all got clear. We went back up to around 101-ish right now. Feels like we're knocking on the door to go even higher today. So a good week if you've just been in Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance had hit a low of like 54%, I think. And then it rebounded to like 57. And then now it's kind of around 56. So it had gone a lot, lot lower on the rally and all these dino coins.

10:13And then it's kind of come back slightly. What's your view on Bitcoin dominance here, just to start? At 56k, are we going higher or lower, you think? I think we will probably go lower. I think with Bitcoin north of 100k, it's at a point now where if the market keeps sending, so to speak, I think Bitcoin dominance starts to drop. We say this every time, the sorts of like...

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11:45thing to look out for is strategic Bitcoin reserve. And if you get the US buying Bitcoin and you get other sovereign nations buying Bitcoin, I think that's the sort of thing that could keep Bitcoin dominance very high and very sticky. But until that is actually affected, provided the market remains strong, my gut as Bitcoin dominance continues to fall towards 50%. And I think that comes as a result of alts starting to rally. Like, I think we're going to have this big, like, January rally as well, I think, as people load up and risk. And people will just load, you know, just the average person who's not deep into crypto will come in, or even people who are deep into crypto will come in and be like, okay, cool.

12:34Let's see what's happened in previous cycles. Bitcoin leads the move. it always happens right after halving bitcoin dominance goes very high and then what's the next thing that happens it's the alt season and i think people were hoping for that last year but maybe it was just too early um and we've seen bitcoin dominance go to north of 60 percent like it did last time and we've seen it starting to drop and i think people now start thinking is there a chance that we get a real alt season where it drops you know into the 40s when's the right time to put that trade on it it feels like january as people get balled up and you have the calendar effect and people have risks they can deploy it feels like that might be a good time to put that trade on i think so my bet is that we continue to fall and i do think we start to see alts rally in in january um i think memes will do well as well but i do think alts can really catch up um Again, I always say this, I still don't have enough conviction to buy alts, but that's what I think will happen.

13:38And I guess you can say it's an honest opinion because I don't even have the risk on. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. it's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030 so just click on the link below and start your journey now if you bring up a big condominance chart like we did really break a basically a trend line which was all the way since 2022 um pretty aggressively so i think yeah like it does feel like that could be we head back down to like 50, 54.

14:29We said before, you know, that we thought it would go to like 54 to 57. We're now at 50, 56. I'm now of the view, yeah, like you, that it feels as though retail has come in and I think it's going to be a bit more similar to a previous cycle. So we're kind of going to go down to like a 54 area, in my opinion, maybe 53. The main thing that's really changed there as well is ETH. So ETH has had a very, very strong period here from being... very underloved. And we've said on the show, like underused really to a certain extent. What you've seen here is actually what a lot of people said, including yourself, institutional demand has come back very, very strong.

15:10So yes, we're probably going to get an ETF for Solana, for Ripple, for tons of things, it feels like very, very soon. In fact, a lot of them were even filed over the last few weeks. But ETH currently has one, and we've seen 2 billion of inflows into that ETF, which is an ETF which nothing was really going on in for a long time over the last 10 days. ETH or Solana here or ETH or Bitcoin even, do you think ETH is the one to own? I think ETH is going to come back. I think I've sort of had this view for the past few weeks and we have seen a move. We saw ETH BTC bottom at like 0.033 or whatever it was.

15:55ETH has obviously done pretty well in the last few weeks. I think it's going to come back. ETH ETF, we had this conversation maybe two or three weeks ago, and it was like, we have Bitcoin ETF. The only other ETF you have is the ETH ETF. And I know there's talks of a Solana ETF, but we all know how long it takes to get that thing, you know, from conception to it actually starting to trade. So I just think the ETH ETF could be like the catch-up trade of next year where people miss Bitcoin and they think, oh now I can buy ETH again you can look at the ETH BTC chart and see how far off the highs it is just has a lot of things going for it I think whereas previously it didn't so I do think ETH can outperform versus Bitcoin do I think ETH outperforms Sol?

16:43you know that's a tougher question it's really moved a lot actually I just looked at Sol ETH now Sol ETH hit highs like 0.072 or something it's 0.056 now so that's a big outperformance of eth versus soul in just the last two or three weeks i guess um yeah it's come back a lot i think the bitcoin one is a really interesting one because i think that's the one that people look at the most and obviously that chart looks horrific um and it's been a graveyard trade to go after it that being said i always said you know eth outperforming bitcoin you'll always get a chance to get in you know i never felt like oh it's going to run away from me one day and i'll never be able to get into eith i look at this chart i feel like it's at that point this is your chance to get in if you believe that this is the time that eith btc is going to reverse it feels like this is the moment um that's my general sense so i i kind of agree with you that i've considered moving some of my bitcoin holdings back into eith here like obviously i missed the complete lows which was like 0.33 0.033 but now we're at 0.38 and it was, well, even just this time last year, it was almost double that.

17:59It feels as though that might not be the worst trade here. I'm kind of in your camp there. So definitely, maybe let's move on to the Solana stuff and talk about that separately, because I think Solana suey is also something that Rao's been talking about a lot. If you're going after, let's say, the more stable majors, There's Ethan Bitcoin. Solana and Sui. And maybe you want to talk about XRP, but I'll focus on Solana and Sui here. Sui's obviously had a good week. Solana's been slightly underperforming. What are those two, do you think? One of the major trends that we've seen over the last month has been the rise of AI and AI agents and people being able to do stuff in chain.

18:44There has been some light thud about Solana and that a lot of the apps are built on closed source tech rather than open source. And a lot of these, it might be more difficult for some of the AI to interact with it, even though a lot of the AI stuff is going on in Solana that's been talked about, whereas Sui has been seen as this better chain for it. I haven't seen anything happening on Sui with respect to AI agents. But do you think there's a, what would you rather be in there out of Sol on Sui? I think if you want to go risk on, I would say Sui. It feels like this year was the year for Sol and Sol ecosystem.

19:28And I think people are now probably, you know, you benchmark yourself to Bitcoin, then you benchmark yourself to ETH and benchmark yourself to Sol. And I think a lot of people will be wanting to outperform Sol next year. That being said, as you said, there's nothing going on on Sui. like maybe there's some meme coins some stuff but it's more it feels more B2B yeah maybe yeah exactly right there's no like DGN stuff going on casino like stuff going on SUI I guess is what I would say like there's some meme coins there's like been a bit of action in SUI NFTs but you know nowhere near to the activity levels we saw with regard to meme coins in Solana so that either means it's really early still for Sui and it's a good point to get in or it won't take off I don't know I don't know which what it is but I think I would rather own Sui than Sol here like for choice as someone I push into next year it does feel a little bit like that and I trade on Sol every single day and I do everything on there but it just knowing what I've just seen which happens with the Dino alts yeah it matters like what you actually sometimes want to own at this point is the under-owned asset and it feels like suey is less mainstream at this stage than solana obviously everyone owns samana everyone's been trading on it and could i see suey really rip from that level it just brought us this was a pretty good chart from from ralos in the week i'm starting to think that also suey is a better trade we've spoken about soul obviously having these unlocks in january whether that's a big deal or not.

21:12Like it's a narrative. I am also wary on Solana being the outperformer here. Although I do think a lot of the ecosystem coins can do really well. Let me put it this way. Like this time last year, if you asked people in crypto, how much do you use ETH and how much do you use Sol? Most people probably told you, I use ETH like every day and I've either never used Sol or I just use it a little bit. Maybe not December last year, let's say like November or October. Now, if you ask everyone the question this year, it's like the answer you're going to get is probably I barely use ETH anymore. I use ETH a little bit, but I use Sol shitload.

21:55And so with that in mind, like do you want to end up by, you know, would you rather buy Sol now at 220 or would you rather have bought it last year at like 80 or even before like eight? And there's, you know, that argument could perhaps extrapolate to, could be transitive perhaps to SUI. So maybe this time next year, we're all using SUI. I don't know, like who knows, right? It does. And just doing that analogy, you mentioned 2021, like people coming in here. Do you remember when we first came in, people talked about ETH. They were like, oh, I was buying ETH at a hundred bucks. And we were like, it was trading at like just over a thousand or something like that.

22:29And we were like, oh God, we're so late. I think that's the case was solved to a certain extent. You know, like everyone, if you're coming in here, you know that people are up so much on Solana. And I feel like Sui could be, and at that stage, then Solana went from, what was it, like five to 200. Even with very limited stuff going on there, it feels like Sui, I don't think is going to have that strong an adoption, but it does, you have to be cognizant that even if you are so, so bullish on Solana, it is up over like 15x basically since the lows last year um it's up a lot and i think you have to be aware that like the trade is not done but it's going to be there's a lot of people in it who are up a lot and it doesn't necessarily lend itself to like pumponomics i would say at this stage of the cycle so uh i'm a bit more wary on it i'm not bearish but definitely more wary on it at the other ones and that's what we've been seeing it just hasn't performed like the other ones over the last over the last week or so.

23:32And we said, you know, December time, be wary on Sol. I'm going to stick to that and say people will be scared about the unlocks in January. So it feels as though after that discussion, out of, and I'll throw in XRP there. Are you bullish on XRP? It's God-candled, done a 5X, very different sort of coin to the others. I don't know if you've ever really considered buying it, But out of Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, Sol and Sui, pick two. Who are your two there? It felt as though we just decided that it probably would be ETH and Sui for the next month. For me, ETH and Sui. XRP, like amazing move higher. And I think we've had a lot of people ask us about XRP since we started doing this and all our various Real Vision stuff.

24:21and I have to say congrats to anyone who held onto it because it's definitely not one that I would have touched at all. But I think that's probably a testament to how strong the XRP army is. I think XRP is sort of like a cult coin or a mean coin. You have people in it who are just really, really diehard XRP holders and that I think is a very bullish thing for the coin. But yeah, that's not going to be for me. I wouldn't put it in the same category as these other L1s just put it into its own thing um i wouldn't be surprised if it did really well this year i honestly wouldn't but um yeah just not really uh not really one for me i think okay all right so there we have it in terms of the um the l1s i think the next biggest thing to kind of talk about is what's been the hottest narrative for a few weeks now which has been ai something that i have i've kind of dove headfirst into um you have been a bit more cautious uh there's been some it just continues to to dominate in terms of mind share here which is the ai and ai agent coins have you had a any sort of a change in heart about these things like the the growth in them or what's your view on them here?

25:39I think you can't really deny the mind share it takes up right now like it started out as AI meme coins and now it's its own whole like sector really and you just look at some of these volumes look at some of these market caps things are at and you had some big movers in the past few days like Griffain and Fartcoin and AI16Z etc so I think it's not to be faded and I think it will not that it's too big to fail but it's too big to really ignore anymore I think like it will continue to persist but I still have a hard time really knowing or understanding or getting what to buy within these coins apart from GOAT and the logic I would apply there it was the first so So it's not even like AI logic I'm applying there.

26:35Apart from that, and that's already at like 750 million market cap. So it's already trading at very high FTV. It's hard to really know what to buy. And sometimes you get a cool agent or you get these bots that will put on their own positions and do well and all that kind of stuff. And I get all that, but it's just like, what's to stop there being a new one next week? and how do you really judge it? And I guess you can ask the same question for the meme coin market. You could have asked the same question for the NFT market in 2021. There's so many different meme coins. How do you truly know which one to buy and which one is going to become viral and stuff?

27:16But I think with memes, for me, it's like, well, I know if something is funny because it makes me laugh. I know if something is iconic because I see the mindshare for it. I know if something has a cultural impact because I feel it. And I just use sort of like my subjective mind to decide that. And if I like it, I'll buy it. If I don't, I won't. With AI, it's a bit harder because you're adding in these different things. I just don't know like how do I compare, I don't know, Fartcoin to Zerebro to Memes AI to graphene, like to pulse, like how do you, to bully, like, how do you compare all these coins and what makes one more desirable than the other away from just like people pushing positions and bags and stuff?

28:09Yeah. There's been a, like a return to utility to a certain extent, I think. And that in some ways that makes stuff a little bit more complicated to value. And there's also there often like a mix of utility plus meme sometimes, but we'll break down a little bit because there's been there's like two main areas which are which are showing strength i think at the moment one is is we obviously started with goat which we mentioned a few times on the show um which is a couple months ago um a ai researcher created a a um an agentic bot essentially on which has an x account we started posting about different memes it got obsessed with um a meme called um the gospel of goat sea or it created a certain like religion around that meme almost and uh then a meme coin was created it adopted it and it started promoting it and that became the goat coin since then a lot of other agents have come in originally we just saw coins related to those agents so we had things like um in that sort of bracket we have Zerebro, which kind of made a rap album.

29:17We have AIXBT, which kind of gives you alpha. That's gained like 100 ,000 followers, gives you like crypto alpha. You've had like Bully, like you mentioned, which is more like a reply guy bot, which got a lot of attention. And then since then, we've kind of moved on to more like infra style stuff. So the big move is this week have been virtuals which is uh one of the marketplaces for these bots which is on which is on base that hit an ftb today of around two and a half billion dollars um been easily the biggest mover out of the top a thousand coins over the last month um and then you've had ai 16z which is a dow which is trying to be the first um ai hedge fund but also separately created an open source framework called ELISA, which has been the number one trending thing on GitHub over the last month globally.

30:13Like this is the number one thing out of all software. This is the trending thing on GitHub. So, and there's been some hope that that can somehow be related back to the AI-16Z now. AI-16Z hit a billion dollars this week. The virtuals hit two and a half billion. A lot of this is a little bit, like you said, like number one, the barriers to entry can be very low. We're seeing new coins come out each week around that infra stuff as well, just like with the bots originally. So it's difficult to underwrite whether something's going to be here in a month or so. And I would say the second thing is there's a little bit of attachment of like, why do you need a token for these sort of things?

30:53Like with a meme coin, it's a meme, right? With a lot of these, it's like, well, we're going to define the utility of the coin at some stage in the future. or it might not be slightly directly related to what we want it to be related to, but it will be at some point in the future. And I think there's a little bit of that going on. But these coins are running. These coins are running like meme coins, even these AI infocoins. We have coins that have gone up. Graphane, which is a coin which was trading at$4 million a week ago, is now trading at$350 million. dollars. And that's because it was tweeted about by the Solana team.

31:33Graphene is like a, almost has like a chat GPT sort of interface for AI agents doing stuff on the blockchain. And so a lot of these sort of plays are running up. I don't know if they'll always be there. And the life cycle of those coins can be a bit meme-like and that they come crashing back down or they don't have residual value after a while, but it's definitely where people are throwing money at the moment um and then separately you have the memes which is kind of what fart coin has been and goat which is really only related or at least the major ones are only really related to the truth terminal which is this original bot that came in and is kind of like this meme lord who've come in and spawned two tokens now which are running into the hundreds of millions one of them is is goat which was the original one and the one that he kind of tweets about a lot.

32:24And the other one is Fartcoin, which people may have heard about because it's kind of gone mainstream, right? Like this thing got tweeted about by Marc Andreessen. It got tweeted about by StockTwits. It got tweeted about by a range of different TradFi accounts, basically mocking the idea that Fartcoin was going so high while they're all investing in stocks and bonds. And this thing went to 750 million today. So two of these coins, which are both kind of mean like i personally think that you should be investing in that like that feels like it's down your sort of road um i this reminds me of the nft cycle so so so much and now a lot of people are fading it like it's a new meta it's quick it's fast like no one can be bothered to do the research there's a lot of scamming going on there's also a lot of like crazy blue sky sort of estimates for how high things can go you know we're changing the world all that sort of but at the same time it's very related to a very very big um bullish trend of ai in tradfire which i think is going to keep it sustained um i guess you have said yeah you might look at goat but it's it's obviously high but i don't know for me i think this is where people are going to be spending their money right now it feels as though a lot of actually the traditional means have been difficult to sustain good price action, even on good news, because there's been so much rotation into these sort of narratives.

33:54Yeah, I do see it. I think something like Fartcoin, for better or worse, feels more accessible to many people. And I think you're going to see a lot of headlines, like mainstream headlines. You're already asking mainstream headlines on Fartcoin. And they probably don't even know it's an AI. iCoin. I think it's just like, oh, this thing called Fartcoin is now worth more than whatever it is, like a third of the American companies or something, the market cap of a third of the American companies, something like that. So I do see it. I do see it. I just feel like I've missed it. I feel like I'm the type of person who gets big into trades when they're like 50 to 100 mil market cap, maybe 50 to 150 in this market.

34:47And I think when something is like at 500 to one bill, I've just never done well on buying anything in that range ever. The only thing I would have done well is if I held some of the new coins. So you could get involved in the new coins, but then I just don't know what I'm looking at. I mean, you can buy some of the new coins though. But it feels like you're buying betas there rather than buying the alphas, you know what I mean? yeah yeah i think i think that's probably fair like you are by nature you're buying a catch-up trade uh at this stage it feels like but but for the infra stuff like can work that's not a bad strategy like you can make money that way for sure so yeah like these coins are moving like these are coins are 10xing you know 100xing in a week um there is there are big big catch-up trades but but you have to you know it is a bit of a lottery with some of those there is a lot of these different coins which are trading in the tens to 50 millions and their ai reaches researchers that have come up come in and then maybe they release a new feature and it just goes absolutely nuts um and i don't know if they're even investable at any of those sort of price points because somebody else can come in and like you said just release the same feature next week and it's it's i'm seeing a little bit of that like zero bro was the most spoken about token probably a couple weeks ago and and now there's like five different things do people trying to do what zero bro is doing um and similarly bully and a few of these other ones they kind of feel as though that they're just getting there's just new coins there's new coins with new shiny things happening each week and it's it's tough to hold on to them so i think the trade really is is you can trade just the hype cycle to a certain extent if you're really if you're really looking to do it um there are a lot of those which you can trade from like 50 to 500 million and it's taking a lot of the attention away from the memes that were doing that before you know like the memes that we even we spent on the show things like you would trade like a lucy before um or luce up to like 200 that sort of stuff isn't happening with memes right now i don't know if you've noticed but like that there are those plays aren't happening they're all in the ai sector so it feels as though if you were if you were doing that before as in trading a coin from five to 200 million and you're kind of just drawn to the AI space right now.

37:05Albeit, I think the returns are probably similar to like, if you were trying to do that in meme coins, like there's a lot of difficult things to overcome and they can get out-competed very, very quick on the backend. But definitely to pay attention to, a lot of this is happening on Solana. That's where the majority of the coins are coming. You're also seeing a lot of this on base. That's where virtuals, which is now the number one coin in the space is based. although a lot of that activity on virtuals that she dropped off i'm i am slightly surprised it's continued to to go up to like two and a half billion but it's done uh it's done very very well so that's where the left curve stuff is happening right now meme coins meme was even with good news i'm finding it difficult to make money like uh it's like oh it's a good piece of news and then it gets got sold straight back down um to where it was it's it's kind of a little bit difficult but there have been some winners i guess and things like mog had a good coinbase listing um i think some of the pepe had a good the eth memes have done slightly better i think i think yeah um i think the other main thing that maybe this is we interested to hear about is the rise back of nfts um nfts have come roaring back so and this has mainly been led by a pudgy penguins token which has been uh kind of following the in the footsteps of the wreck token you might say But Pudgy Penguins have gone above$100 ,000.

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38:27They flip Bored Apes comfortably by about, Bored Apes are at 70K, Pudgy Penguins at 100. And all the major NFT projects are probably up, what, another 2X on the week? It's been a pretty crazy period here for NFTs. What's your view there? Are you more attracted to get back into NFTs a little bit here? I think there's quite clearly a premium for NFTs that haven't yet launched tokens. And if you look at where the volume and price action has been, it's been in Pudgy Penguins. They've announced the Pengu token and it sounds like there's no snapshot. You can just claim the token on the day if you own a penguin.

39:12So the whole Pudgy ecosystem, like Pudgy's, little Pudgy's, Pudgy Rods have been doing well. Buzuki has been doing well. They've announced anime coin. So you know that's coming at some stage. Doodles has been doing very well as well. I think there's a lot of speculation on Doodles potentially bringing a token.

39:34Meanwhile, you know, Apes have done okay, but they haven't, they've sort of been underperforming versus the others. So yeah, it's just like, if you want to play the whole, buy this NFT, get the token, and have some residual value in the NFT trade. I think that's kind of like on right now. I also think independently of that, NFTs are just doing well anyways. Like I think Ether's doing better. We've had just like the longest consolidation period ever for NFTs and broken out of it a couple of times. So I'm like relatively bullish on NFTs. I think I saw you had like two or three different new mints recently that have done really well.

40:18Like one, I can't remember, there's a gaming one that came which meant that like 0.2 ETH and is now north of 2 ETH or something like that. So stuff is doing well. I think people are kind of like starting to feel more comfortable putting capital back into the market. It really is. The thing with NFTs is because you had this like big down period for such a long time and then Mean Coins really took off. It was really hard to like put money into NFTs when you could just like have a really good chance at multiplying that money in the meme world. But with everything happening in meme coins right now, as you've mentioned, if you are just playing for like a 2 or 3x or 5x and like the big cap stuff, you know, maybe NFTs look more interesting in here where people are making like 10x's there pretty easily.

41:06So you just need a good story and good, you know, good, somewhat like a bunch of people to kill it on one collection then everyone just like dives back in, I think. Yeah, so I guess I want to take this up into what we said maybe in a few months ago. We said that NFTs would be one of the final things to rally in this market. And that kind of has happened. They obviously rallied after everything else. Do you think that that is a... Do you think it's more of a Pengu trade? In that people are getting super bullish after REC did well. And Milady's launched a coin which did well. and now Pengu is obviously launching a coin which people are talking about could be into the multiple billions.

41:48Do you think it's that or do you think it's another sign that we're like kind of in the final, like this could be a bit of a mini top? Do you think this is a top signal or do you think this is just a isolated coins thing? I think NFTs were doing well before Pengu was even announced and after getting announced, obviously Penguins went up quite a lot and then I think people started putting capital into the other projects that may be bringing tokens. So the other thing to mention is like, yeah, maybe now NFTs are finally rallying after not rallying for a while, but that's just an Ethereum, right?

42:26If you consider, I mean, ordinals technically aren't NFTs, but it's obviously a very similar market and ordinals have had an amazing run for the last 12 months, for the last 24 months, actually. So I don't know.

42:45I think we're getting, I don't think we're at the top, but we're definitely getting closer to it. But I don't know. Something just tells me that it's not going to be the same where you have a crazy NFT run post this cycle, which ends up being the top. And then, because remember last time also, stuff kept going lower, but NFTs kept going higher for a while, like 2022 but I just feel like NFTs in 21-22 were just this like brand new thing and people really thought they were going to change the world and that's why it was sticky for so long and I think that feeling has now washed over so you don't have that same kind of new fresh feel about NFTs so based on that I think NFTs doing well could be towards the end of the cycle but I don't think we're going to have that like the same crazy crazy run as last time I think some NFTs will do really well like the x copies all the art stuff is already doing really well um some of the blue chip profile picture projects i think will do really well but i just don't think we'll see the levels that we saw in 21 do you think that the analogy then would be the the top will really be when like these ai coins start doing really well and the market starts dipping and then and then you know it's kind of it's kind of going to be it uh because that's that's what it really was like towards the top, I think, in what was that?

44:09December 2021, January 2022, that sort of time. Yeah, that's about right, I think, yeah. Okay. The only other things I think we should talk about is just kind of what's been going on in the DeFi space a little bit. There was some news out this week that Trump bought Aave, Chainlink, and ETH, which also led to a rally in all three coins. it feels as though DeFi has had a good week. It might continue to have a good week, just a good period here, just on the renewed hope that Trump is going to enact or push through some pretty positive DeFi regulation, which I think is pretty good if they're buying like Aave token.

44:53Those coins are all up 40 % to 50 % on the week, which is quite a big gain. And then secondly, Hyperliquid. If you looked at Hyperliquid, this has been one of the best performers so far. This was an airdrop of a perpdex called Hyperliquid, which there's been a few perpdexes before. There's DYDX, there's GMX, Jupiter has a perpdex. And Hyperliquid took no VC money. It is now trading an FDV of 18 billion, which easily puts it in the top coins here, kind of comparable to some of the L1s. people are saying that they think this thing can go to like a hundred billion at the moment they're making millions of dollars a day in fees and there is some flywheel where they're buying back the token there's some talk about um staking in the future but do you think hyper liquid is is also the trade one of the trades of this cycle it feels as though people are getting very very bullish even at a high ftv yeah i mean we've spoken about defi being something to look at as a resurgence trade and as we all know like sometimes new tokens do better than than old ones and i think um just the mind share on this is every big crypto twitter account was farming and hyperliquid is talking about hyperliquid they've all made a ton of money on it like the mind share on it really is second to none in terms of um coins and you know just the narrative of like airdropping the entire thing to your community versus doing the whole VC thing is a really powerful one.

46:32It really gets people on your side. So I think, I mean, these numbers are crazy. Like the volume levels are crazy. They're obviously printing on fees. It's almost what Frontech did. Like almost Frontech didn't quite pull it off. but yeah I think this I think this thing can keep going I think it's also if you're talking about normals in retail coming in it's really easy to understand and to explain business model makes sense yeah I think it can keep going I'm just kind of it's another one where like oh why wasn't I just doing trades on hyperliquid to farm this thing you know what I mean especially yeah I mean you do quite a lot of perp trading like it would have been I do quite a lot of perp trading I mean I generally trade on Binance but yeah I should have done more before I've just found slip is really bad, but Hyperliquid is seeing huge volumes.

47:24And you're right in that all the major traders, a lot of vocal CT traders have farmed this and they seem pretty loyal to it. And it's a very high FDV, but it's actually not that big a current market cap. And a lot of those tokens are seemingly locked up by people who think it's going to go a lot higher. So it may be my top pick in the DeFi space right now, even with these other let's say older or like first gen DeFi coins, I agree with what you just said a newer coin can actually run and with a pretty powerful narrative so that will probably be my top DeFi pick at the moment Okay, those are the main things that happened this week Should we go into questions potentially?

48:12Yeah, let's do questions um before we do um we just want to showcase some some more pro crypto content on real vision we had uh jamie coots do a deep dive into the crypto and ai sector earlier this week he spoke with pondering durian from delphi an expert in the space um pretty interesting discussion about infrastructure the agentic economy and scaling and more so um if you have a pro crypto subscription on Real Vision, please check it out. Head over to realvision.com to sign up. Let's move on to questions. This is from Just Trust Me Bro on YouTube. The diner's made for three reasons. Lindy effect, no VCs.

48:58CT is consensus. People stopped reading white papers and followed KOLs and airdrops. What do you think? I think that's a very good point. Like following Mindshare, I think, can be quite a dangerous tactic because it often points to like over-owned coins. at the same time I would say that the XRP one is the one that shocked me really the most this wasn't a pump from a really low market cap this has now flipped Solana and flipped the FTP a bit by about 2x this is a massive coin now so to get it up that high in an area where not many people are using XRP although they are meant to be having a stable coin come out relatively soon um it does seem it does seem that definitely took me by surprise but there's something to be said there about buying the coins which are not like having your own thesis around them and potentially owning coins which other people are not talking about that can be very dangerous as a narrative at the same time but that was how those coins moved as strongly as they did like no they were very underloved and then i think generally when retail came back they found those the easiest to pump versus some of the other coins so once they started moving they realized that you know no one really owned these and you can really pump them very very quickly i think that's right i think also ct is very consensus and at the end of the day something that no one owns is obviously the thing that's going to pump so um I think that description really makes sense as to why it rallied.

50:38It makes you wonder if there's anything else out there that can do the same. Mario on the Real Vision website, thoughts on the Hort tour rug pull? I mean, I don't really have a lot of views on that. But yeah, basically Hayley Wells, who's that girl from the meme, she released a meme coin. It was essentially a scam. No one's seen her since. the thing is it's very difficult to work out with these celebrities that have come in whether their intention is for it to not go well or if not it felt as though potentially she obviously got advised by people who maybe took advantage of the situation which was so predictable it's unbelievable for people who have been here for many years this happens all the time with celebrities they come in and they often get advised by a team of token launchers professional token launchers which really just means they're going to make a lot of money out of you.

51:38So it's obviously going basically to zero right now. It was originally, at one point it was at$200 million, and then seemingly people close to the Deployer wallet or connected to the insider team were selling. She claimed that nobody sold. I don't know if you believe her or not, but either way it feels as though some people have taken advantage of that situation. Yeah, it's a tough one for her, I think, because I don't, you know, someone has obviously done this for her and advised her on it. And I think she's obviously been like, how do I monetize like what I'm doing here? Someone's like, hey, if you can go into crypto and launch a token and make all this money.

52:20But like, I think she had like a six or 12 month cliff with like a two year vest or something like that. And apparently the whole team had that as well. but it's pretty clear that just like, you know, people running the project have sniped it, monetized it, and now sort of left her high and dry. And I think there's all sorts of things that they did wrong here. Like they had a, they had a presale, had a SAFT. And I think if you have a SAFT in the US, it counts as a security. So you need to have, as a private placement, you need to have a 12 month cliff. Yeah. before people can sell their tokens or trade their tokens.

53:01And I think they had an instant T0 token release. All the investors, they had pre-sale investors and all of them just made a quick 10x on it, whatever it was, and just dumped the token as well. So the whole thing was just doomed to fail from the start. It comes as no surprise, I think. It just amazes me that people go out there and still do it. You know what I mean? but yeah, it really comes with no surprises. Paul from the Real Vision website, hey guys, any thoughts on Link? Well, I had a good week because Trump bought it. I don't know. I don't know if you'd call that a dino coin. It felt like Link.

53:45I would, yeah. I'd put it in that same bucket. It could, it could pump. The issue about Link is, is, it's had a few pumps over the years and each one of them has been smashed lower by the foundation um i guess it does have it does have like a cult community around it but it doesn't didn't have the same sort of cult community around it as like xrp or cardano right it's not like you do hear about marines you do hear about them but then it's not like they're in your deep they are not in like the comments yeah they're not like shouting it at you so i feel as though it is a it is going to be a very important piece of defy um infrastructure link clearly uh it's an oracle which means it obviously um basically takes data from outside the blockchain and puts it on chain uh or or facilitates cross-chain and that sort of stuff it's uh the token has always been a bit of a question like why is needed i i mean if we're and have an altcoin cycle, it wouldn't be my first pick, but it could still do well.

54:56Yeah, that makes sense. I think so too. I think it can do well, but I would put it in the DinoCoin category, I think, in my opinion. Have you looked at Mina Protocol? Do you have any thoughts on the ZK narrative having a run? I haven't looked at Mina Protocol. Lightest blockchain to secure dApps. I haven't looked at this so I don't know if I'll be useful. Yeah, me neither. What about CK? What do you think about that? Like the ZK narrative? Yeah.

55:34I mean... Don't look very excited. Well, it depends. In ZK, do you mean like ZK roll-ups or... Yeah, I guess so, yeah. Or like privacy chains that we're talking about here? No, I think... I'm assuming ZK roll-ups. Yeah. Well, I think it's more like privacy, having looked at it. Some of those privacy-style coins have done very well. So because of the US government lost a case against Fireblocks recently. Sorry, not Fireblocks. Tornado Cash. And that's meant that a lot of these coins, which are based around privacy, have really rallied. having been delisted on many of the exchanges. So if it's based around that, and it's more of a privacy-style blockchain, then I think that those keep on bouncing back to hit all-time highs.

56:30So not all-time highs, but bouncing back to hit new local highs, let's say. So it could have a strong narrative on the back of that. It feels as though Trump and that administration is not going to go after crypto. It's going to have to be a very, very high bar for them to go after stuff. They're putting in charge of the SEC and in charge of the CFTC people that have literally worked at crypto companies. So yeah, I think it's going to be a very, very high bar to come after people. Okay, next question from Francesco on the Real Vision website. Between ETH, SUI, Bitcoin and Sol, what's the order of preference?

57:10ETH, Bitcoin, SUI, Sol. I mean, for the next couple of months, I think ETH would probably be my number one. than SUI, than Bitcoin and Sol.

57:23I think I agree with you. Just wondering if I would swap Bitcoin and Sol but I think given all the big unlocks for Sol in January who knows maybe they start to get priced in I'm not really sure but yeah maybe Sol's better if we think if it's going to be an altcoin cycle it is still tough to imagine that Sol doesn't outperform Bitcoin. Yeah. All right. Well, you know, that's the end of the question. So that brings us to a close. Markets have moved higher during the course of this show. So the good fortune is still back above 101K on Bitcoin. um yeah um so yeah thanks everyone for listening that was rec vision um quick question for everyone listening if you're watching this stream on youtube or x please feel free to comment what's your crypto wish for santa let us know which of your bags you really hope um hits new highs uh for christmas um next week we'll be doing the uh drinks with session so it'll be an exclusive AMA for Real Vision crypto subscribers.

58:30If you have not yet subscribed, you can sign up at realvision.com forward slash RVC. Thanks again for watching. We'll be back on again at the same time next week, 11.30am Eastern time, 4.30pm UK time. And thanks everyone for listening. Have a great weekend.

59:14so within this we have parties you can choose the vip track and then you might be on a boat party and you're doing something else and going for a dinner there or meeting people in different venues and bars. So there's lots going on. It's like a mad treasure hunt. I like the idea of just hanging out with you guys, drinking up a rum or a glass of champagne and putting the world to rights and just really celebrating you as our members and our community. And it's a thank you for that as well. It'll be an incredible event.

59:49listen get your tickets quick before they sell out this is the event you've been waiting for come and join us for the crypto gathering we will have an absolute blast

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