REKT Vision: Week 1 of Ethereum ETF

31:18I don't think he says it. I don't think he needs to. I feel like he's caused it just a little bit, and this would be a pretty aggressive thing to come out and say. But I can imagine you do see some form of legislation hit the House or the Senate over the course of his presidency. And there's some light chatter about it. But it does feel a little bit early for the Fed to be printing money to buy Bitcoin. I don't know. To go from Gensler to that just feels like such a jump. I mean, they don't even have to really buy it, do they? They can just not sell what they have and they instantly benefit from it.

31:52That's the beauty of it. They don't even have to actually spend any capital if they don't want to. If they don't want to, yeah. But I mean, if RFK is saying it should be$650 ,000. Yeah, RFK is definitely the other end of the spectrum on this. But yeah, still a super bullish headline. I haven't seen that much else come out of Bitcoin Nashville. It's been, I guess, the ordinals and runes crowd seem to have settled down over the last few months. There's been some talk of L2s being built on Bitcoin. There's a bunch of different concepts around that, which did basically strategic rounds earlier in the year.

32:24in the year. But it does feel this is mainly political, this event, rather than we're building new stuff on Bitcoin. And a little bit less anti-establishment. Did you see the lineup? It's kind of funny that it's just all it's all TradFi fund managers and politicians. Yeah, it's interesting, isn't it? And Russell Brand as well. All right, well. That I thought was the most random one. Like, what is Russell Brand there? Although he's been in the Bitcoin game for a while, I think. But yeah. Do you have Nashville FOMO? I wish I was going to this. It seems it's going to be like one for the ages, I think.

33:10It does feel like one for the ages. Did you consider... We have him in the... Are you in the studio, actually, Raul? You can see us? We can see you, so... You can't see me on screen, I don't think, yet. I'm hiding. Oh, really? Arthur, when am I coming on? There we go. Here. He's on. Hello, gang. How are you? Good to see you. Good to see you. You thought about going to Bitcoin Nashville? No, I'm here to just talk about the new religion, which is the church of the smoking chicken fish. No way. That's all. I'm here to convert everybody to the new church. This is how OSF's making it all back. He's owned too much teeth and decided he's going to own the most random Solana meme coins this week.

33:53It's just pure chicken fiction. It's the best meme I've seen probably since crypto dick butts. It's just fucking genius. I mean, they have a registered church. They have a registered church. Yeah. So this is a coin that came up in the last four days, actually. And it's an original Reddit meme, I think, which goes back like 12 years. The smoking chicken fish. And within... Even saying it is funny. I know. within a couple of hours of them launching the coin, they opened up a church. So someone said it's like the 100th biggest church by market cap in the world already. I don't know where you come up with that figure, but this thing is sitting at 71 million right now.

34:42The chart looks like a movie. You know when people talk about like, what we're going to try and flip, are their targets like we're gonna try and flip the church of england then we're gonna try and flip like that's where it's getting at it's like they've got the vatican at the top and they're just like knocking them off you know it's that meme of the guy opening the different doors yeah and you have to get for me you have to get broth ties in a broth haven't gone through the ceremony yet um there's all there's all this there's chicken chicken moments which are the the commandments for chicken. He's really gone into this.

35:19So is Ovi. I see him in the chat. Oh, wow. You've been chicken-pilled, have you? I've been chicken-pilled, yeah. I can't even imagine what that chat is like. It's very funny because what was good about it, it wasn't a pre-owned token. It was purely organic. And it was just because the meme is so funny and the fact that they went the extra mile by opening a church to get registered by the IRS. Registered by the IRS is really good. So where is this church? It must be in the US. It's registered by the IRS. Somewhere in the US. Probably Texas or somewhere. But it's genius. It's genius. And so I saw it two days ago and I didn't get a chance.

36:06I was going out for dinner. I didn't buy it. So I aped in last night after I did the drinks with Raoul thing. I had half a bottle of white wine so I thought, fuck it, I'll buy it. That's how the best decisions are made. This must have really touched your soul. It really did. I was out for dinner and all I could think was the word smoking chicken fish. That's the best name I've ever heard. It's like a Monty Python sketch and I knew I had to buy it. I was attracted to the church and I've been converted now. It's a cult. It's a cult church. It must be. I mean, at 75, it must be one of already the top Salon and Meme Coins.

36:41And yeah, this has been probably the biggest one of the week. There's been a couple of others that have had crazy runs. It does feel as though... They don't have churches. If Sol keeps on going, yeah. If Sol keeps on going higher, this stuff is going to keep on going. I thought for a little bit, altcoins would underperform... Sorry, meme coins would underperform altcoins for a little bit. But now, if Sol keeps going, the number one thing that happens on Smama is memes. You know, it's really interesting, because this is actually part of something we've all talked about, is when you speak to somebody in crypto markets who's relatively young and just kind of in it, this is maybe first or second cycle, they've got like 20 grand or 10 grand in savings.

37:24And you say, look, you should invest in Solana, Bitcoin, ETH. They're like, no, I'm not going to do it. And I'm like, why not? They're like, I'm never going to make the money I need to make. And I'm like, are you serious? They're like, I'm serious. I'd rather lose the 10 grand than I would to make 30 grand and go through all of the stress. It's a really serious point why speculation is so big in the space. Because there's a real need. Because people, the average millennial is 35 years old. Ovi, how old are you? 34. So right there. And you're just having kids. You've all got married, right? And most people haven't had the background, the success that you've had.

38:05They're like, how do I buy a house? How do I pay for my kid's school? How do I do all of this? And what they do is generally that population in the US has been pretty good. They invest in their 401k. They do what they're supposed to do, but it still doesn't get them anywhere. So they've chosen to take more risk. And it's actually logical. Yeah, I completely agree. There's something that I remember thinking of as the quote that you get told throughout your life that hard work will mean success. But actually, it's hard work and massive risk, I think. To actually re-rate yourself, if you didn't start off wealthy, to actually re-rate yourself, you've got to take massive risk.

38:48because the way that capitalism works is just particularly with money printing, where owners of assets are really making money, which often means the mega rich are becoming even more rich. The only way to really re-rate yourself often is being drawn to this sort of stuff. So I mean, gambling as a whole is massively up in society, but I do think this is going to continue. And, you know, that's part of that thesis of mine of how to unfuck your future. We can all see it, right? This is the biggest macro opportunity of all time. And you can't fuck this up. I mean, these memes are serious memes that I bring up because it does unfuck your future.

39:29It gives you some certainty about your future. And you just have to stay in the game. And that's the crucial thing. I mean, Ovi, you and I were on a podcast the other day. It was the same thing we're saying. It's like you've got to stay in the game. But I understand it's easier. People push back and say, well, it's easier for you guys because you made some money. So Solana and Ethereum and Bitcoin work for you. It doesn't work for us. It really shocks me that that's where we've got to. At the end of the day, you're here for a couple of reasons. One of them, maybe just deploying some of your portfolio into crypto and getting a bit of extra return.

40:06And you're kind of like, OK, cool, 1 % of my portfolio should be in crypto. but at the end of the day, people are here just swinging for the fences, trying to make like a 10X or 100X or whatever it is to change their lives. And like, that's the investment mandate in their head. It's like, I'm willing to lose 90 % to try and make 5 ,000 % or whatever it is. And if someone consciously teaches that. Because it is so asymmetric. And so, yes, you're right. It's an investment mandate they've given themselves. It's exactly right way to think about it. Yeah. Yeah. I think you have to be careful not to start with that investment mandate where you're willing to lose it all and then trick yourself into thinking, oh, wow, these are all really safe assets and I own all these blue chip meme coins and these are all going to maintain value forever.

40:54And then you end up round tripping and losing money. I think you have to remember the reason why you took the gambles in the first place. And I still do think they're gambles. And remember, you don't have the money until you take the profits as well. That's right. And this is why I think you should only use a small proportion in the super risk stuff. If you get it right, it can add a kicker onto your existing portfolio. So if you don't think 5x is enough for you for a cycle, yes, you can maybe double that by having 10 % or 20 % of assets in more speculative stuff. But the whole game is not to lose all your money.

41:30So even though their mandate is, let's treat it like an option or throw away the premium, the worst thing is to finish the cycle with no money that's the worst yeah yeah yeah we were talking about that earlier this week i think i think the number one place i see mistakes being made actually is not in this stuff not in the not in um the lower cap memes that go from five to 60 because i think people are generally that like you said they're gambling with smaller amounts they're hoping for higher multiples it's the people who are buying blue chip meme coins at $500 million to$2 billion,$3 billion market cap.

42:08And I feel like that's similar to buying blue chip NFTs last cycle. You might think you're doing something less risky, but actually, they can get absolutely decimated. And I don't think the upside for a lot of these coins is actually that much better than Solana. I think Bitcoin dominance stays kind of high if we go it's 100k i think bitcoin probably stays around the same i think solana probably goes towards 300 and these coins maybe do a two to three x like i don't think if your coin is at one billion i don't think it's going to do a five x i think it's you're hoping that it goes to two or three so then i think that's but your downside is so much worse it is so much worse right i think the bigger mistake that i a lot and this is not to diss because i know people get so damn tribal people are stuck in xrp they're stuck in cadano they're stuck in the the memes and narratives of prior cycles and they're hoping that it's going to do well and i'm like just do the chart versus soul stop doing this yourself it's really hard to get people to change that that view because it's become so tribal they've identified with it because they're sitting on losses generally and they don't want to realize that they've got it wrong and that that i think is is that that's really bad i think because then you you might be an xrp and you know maybe it does well maybe it doesn't it's not a thing about xrp but if it's not a leader the probability of you making as much money you're just cobbling yourself by doing that you have to be a little bit more mercenary i think yeah i think that's a fair point we we also banded around the idea last last week that if you take a step back maybe 2017 was the cycle for altcoins 2021 was the one for nfts and this is the cycle for meme coins and if you owned last cycles hot thing this cycle you kind of have underperformed each time that's not where people are gambling it's not like if you owned some altcoins did well last cycle, but NFTs were the real massive performer.

44:22And this cycle, if you faded memes and altcoins, you hold on to altcoins, you're kind of even two cycles behind. And if you held NFTs, again, there wasn't really the beta to it. So I think you're right in that you just have to stop marrying stuff in crypto. It's something that I've realized it's not like, you're not Warren Buffett. You're not value investing for 100 years and you're buying Coke stock. It's always valuable it's always going to come back next cycle in the business cycle things just do not come back um and i think yeah it's something you have to to remember because it has to have two factors for it to come back it has to have actual network usage that grows and it has to capture attention if it doesn't if it has one of those missing it ain't coming back yeah i'd like Like you just said, the person that comes in this cycle, they don't want to buy your old bags.

45:20They want to buy their new thing. It's so much funner for them to have their own thing that they own and they can buy. They don't need to get involved. No, unless it's one of the really big proven majors that is getting network adoption, you don't need to own any. Yeah, you're right. People have a bias towards the new shiny thing, and fine. It's all about attention anyway, as we've all talked about. It's always all about attention, yeah. Yeah, whichever thing can pitch the greatest narrative and garner the greatest attention. Yeah, because in the end, attention is actually a finite resource. You've only got so much attention as the number of people in the space, and then that needs to be divided amongst the various assets, and there's too many assets for most of them to get attention, which is why 99 % of everything on Pump.Fun doesn't go anywhere because there's just simply not enough attention.

46:11Yeah, that's the other thing. this cycle. You also have to appreciate that there could be another meme coin like this fish next week. It is so dangerous to get a lot of this. Unless it comes with something better than a church. I don't know what. Better than a church. You're married to this one all the way. All the select meme coins that will have to go. We've got a dog with a hat and now we've got a chicken with a church. I mean, you need to find me something better now. Yeah. The bar is rising. That's for sure. That's right. You guys are both going to be community members by the end of this.

46:45You'll be hanging out at the church. I'm one of many, many community members at this stage. I'm a member of many communities, I should say. What did you make of the macro setup this week? Everyone freaked out. I'm sure everyone was calling you up saying, do I need to panic? The chart does look like, oh my God, it's gone. It's come so far. And then it dips a little bit. You're like, oh God, this could really go. I was on another call just now, and people were asking about that, saying, well, NASDAQ really sold off hard, and it spilled, and dollar-yen, and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I'm like, listen, you guys have been in crypto.

47:25What happens is occasionally the leverage gets flushed in short term, and then it all resets and goes back. That's what happened. A bunch of people got carried out by something, losing the money. They unwind a bunch of stuff, and then it all stops. There's nothing more than that. And it happens. We're so used to it in cryptos. Funding rates are going up, funding rates are going up, funding rates are going up, market collapses for a bit, cheeky 10%, 15 % correction, and then off it goes again. That's really what happened in TradFi land, and it spilled over into crypto land. Nothing more than that.

47:56There's no real macro that drove it. Can I ask? Because someone, it was going around the timeline that this, someone was blowing up in Japan. That's what I saw a few different people say. I didn't know if this was something that we spoke about a few months ago. Do you think we've seen a little bit of a Bank of Japan intervention that we don't know about here? Yeah, I think the BOJ have been generally intervening. Because as the dollar is starting to turn, as rates are starting to come lower, they really have to get this lower. Everybody's got their funding to do with their debts. Nobody wants this.

48:33The Chinese don't want it. Everybody wants a weaker dollar, including the US at this point. So I think everybody's kind of focused on that. And if you're going to blow up a bit of carry trade leverage to do it, that's fine. I doubt it was big enough to blow people up because everyone knows the BOJ was involved. I don't hear the 1998 style, every hedge fund in the world was long dollar yen until it blew up. So yeah, I think just bar. If you're at Millennium or you're at a bank, dollar-yen moves a lot. Currencies don't move a lot, but when they do, it forces your VAR to shrink. So you have to start reducing positions across the board.

49:17Yeah, it did feel like one of those blow-ups. The other big news that I saw this week was actually some big corporates getting into crypto. So I don't know if you saw the headline... that Google is actually like silently building out this whole crypto landscape. The guy runs Blockworks put out a tweet. I think it was today or yesterday, which is something that I hadn't really picked up on, but they are building a ton of infrastructure. Here we are. Google is quietly pushing big into crypto. Cloud support, blockchain analytics, node infra, free testnet ETH, validator for several big L1s and L2s, integration to search.

50:00And I picked up on little tidbits of them doing this. I think they're on Solana. They're on ETH. They've been validators for at least the Google Clouders. But it's kind of crazy to see. So I spoke to the Google team a lot. It's lovely. It's a bottoms-up swell within Google of people pushing for Web3 and crypto. And I gave a Google Talks back in 2021. and it was the best attended Google Talks because it was about crypto. And the Web3 community at Google is vast. And they told me, and the CTO is a Web3 enthusiast. So what they're doing is without being Web3, like converting YouTube to a Web3 thing, they're just, as you said, just kind of building out quietly.

50:53It's a takeover by a bunch of degens who are there. And I see that in all the investment banks, all the asset management firms. I see it everywhere. It's the same at LinkedIn. It's the same at Meta. It's the same everywhere. There's this kind of mid-tier of people who just harass the senior management and just push it forwards all the time. It's great to see. Yeah, because out of all those magnificent seven, obviously, Tesla owns some Bitcoin and has been accepting it in its cars. And obviously, Elon's a bit of a Dogecoin guy. But none of the others have really, Meta kind of did the Metaverse stuff, but never really followed through.

51:30What about Dell? Because Michael Dell, there's something going on there. Is he the 100 Bitcoin guy? People say he might be Mr. 100, yeah. Oh, really? Well, there's been rumors, because this Mr. 100 buys, is just buying insane amounts. And Dell is cash rich, I think. He's got, he's very, because he's got margin loans where he's sold part of the business. So he has a lot of cash to spend. And I don't know if he's been fanning the rumors himself. He has. Look at his Twitter feed. Yeah. He's done all sorts of stuff. There's definitely some expectation that he might be the mysterious Mr. 100. There have been thoughts that this could be connected to an Asian sovereign wealth fund or Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund.

52:19but it could be him. I mean, if you're a billionaire... Him or Dell itself as a corporation. Yeah, it's true. I like his tweet, fascinating Bitcoin, with a video of Larry Fink talking about it. Yeah, he's done quite a lot of Bitcoin tweets and things that allude to it as well. He's done a poll. The most important thing, AI, Bitcoin, love and relationships, none of the above. Which one won? Click on that. Bitcoin won with 43%, yeah. He knows the game. He knows the game. Yeah. Yeah. Well, there is some talk that if, you know, if I forget what level it is, but if Bitcoin gets to 300K, Satoshi will be the richest man on earth.

53:10Which is quite funny that the richest man on earth at some point in the future might be anonymous or we don't know if he's alive or not. I still think it's the US government and the US NSA and UK GCHQ. I think they built it. You think? Well, yeah. There is some prominent UK people at the heart of it, like Adam Back. Some people say it could have been Satoshi. There's obviously a bunch of different others. But yeah, there's definitely some prominent British people back then. But I guess what I'm trying to say is that the next billionaire could be the next, you know, highest, most wealthy person in the world could be because they've managed to re-rate themselves from being a 50 billion to, you know, re-rating themselves all the way to 300, 400, right?

54:06I mean, CZ's him with a chance. Yeah, exactly. He's a perfect example. And no one actually knew his wealth, even when he was, because everyone thinks he owns, you know, wherever it is, 50 % of BNB or something absolutely crazy, which again, would put him up there. BNB is a$100 billion coin. So if BNB similarly did a crazy run, you could arguably say he might be up there because he also, he owns the majority share in Binance itself. So there were rumors his last cycle, I remember when BNB was around this sort of level and he owned Binance, there was like, well, on paper, he might be worth 300, 400 billion, right?

54:45Because Binance was valued at 300 billion, I think, at one stage during the peak of the last bull run. Now, obviously, I don't think it's valued anywhere near that. Where's Coinbase at? What's Coinbase market cap at.

55:04What do you reckon Binance would be valued at? I'm pretty sure he owns it basically all. Maybe there's one or two other minority shareholders. Maybe the Chinese state. $59 billion is where Coinbase is, the market cap. You've got to assume that Binance is worth multiples of that. I interviewed Richard Teng this morning, who's the CEO. So, I mean, they are 220 million accounts. It's crazy. And higher volumes than... So they've got to be a$300 billion market cap company. Yeah. Right. So, theoretically, you could start to argue that CZ could be in it. It's very unclear, the ownership structure. And no one knows how much of BNB he owns, but it's gone up a lot since he's been in prison.

55:51So people are assuming that he must own a lot. Is there a moral to that story? Just, you know, you should go to prison and become rich. Somebody's been dumping. Not sure about that one. But yeah, he could walk out of there maybe amongst the top richest people in the world, but no one will really know. There is a meme that he comes out in three days' time that that is when the banana zone can start. Everyone's like, well, it can't happen without CZ. I've seen that. They're kind of like the prophecy, basically. this is going to be the moment in time the point of inflection when he comes back we resume or we we start to entertain the banana zone I would say is that the one going around the smoking fish no there's no gospel of such things in the church no we don't we don't discuss filth such as money in the church I might have to get involved in this thing you guys are so invested everybody's going to because it's, look, it's rare that you get to laugh so much about the ridiculousness.

57:00It's basically a meme which is an entire Monty Python film that you're living in. Okay, chicken fish. So the other co-founder of Canary Labs says he remembered the original meme when it was going around Reddit circles 12 years ago. And I was like, wow, this thing is more OG than I thought it was. Yeah, that's why, you know, it's been, it's exalted. it's now holy

57:27they're going to make you join the church you're going to be a pastor pastor Rao I believe you're a bishop now right they tried to make me a bishop they tried to make you anointing archbishop should we maybe get to questions I don't know if Arthur wants to we're just been rattling on about smoking chicken yeah maybe we can do a couple of quick we have two minutes left i can do a couple of quick ones um sure let's see scrolling through i like this question why would you not buy bitcoin it's safe and then you have the upside of altcoins like soul how how can you sleep at night holding no bitcoin and only this is from bray on youtube i actually agree with him i've come to this bitcoin awakening in the last few days, which feels all too late.

58:19But I actually do agree. I think it's starting to me to feel like Bitcoin now has similar upside to many coins and probably less downside and a lot more going for it. Well, with Bitcoin dominance at all time highs, I say this. It's just, it's just timeframes. It's like what we said, if a kid comes into crypto at 21 and wants to hit the lottery, he's not buying Bitcoin. So I think it's just that that's the only other reason. But if you're, if you're just, you want to be a boomer, like OSF, then yeah, you can, you can sleep easy with Bitcoin. All that's happened is he's got a kid now and he's now gone right down the road.

58:53Yeah, exactly. It'll be a pipe and slippers. Unbelievable. I don't think he probably belongs on this show anymore. He's just, I think he's lost his edge. He has any good like dividend yielding stocks if I can point them my way. Philip Morris. Really Warren Buffett recently. Yeah. I'm, I'm not Boglehead guys.

59:16I don't own any Bitcoin, so... Well, I have one. Yeah, I haven't owned any Bitcoin for a long time, so I just... I don't know. I need to just step away from screens for this weekend, I think. I'm going through some very strange trading decisions right now. Should we do one more question? Yeah, one more. Let's see. What do you think about a sole entry at$180 to my existing bag? Like, I don't want to miss the banana zone by waiting for an entry in the 160s, 170s, but equally feel like there could be a pullback due to the increase in OI with the recent pump, the increase in open interest. Yeah, I hate these kind of things because I understand the psychology is like, I want to get it cheaper.

1:00:03If it breaks out, the best thing is you buy a bit now, and then if it breaks higher, you buy it. If it goes lower, you could buy the rest. So you kind of put on half now. It's the only way you can fight your own psychology. I tend to, when I make a decision, just do it. I tend not to mess around because I've made that mistake so many times where you miss the trade. Yeah, I agree with that. I was going to say 160, 170 is what, like a 15 % pullback, whereas you think your upside may be like 50, 100%, 150, 200. So for the sake of just getting cute overlevel, I think get some of the risk on, but leave yourself some powder to add if it drops.

1:00:44Yeah. I think that the best way to do that is either dollar cost average, the rest of that bag over the course of a period. Like if you expecting some volatility and it might go down to, you know, one 60 for a period. I've done that before. So I'll set myself, I'll buy like 25 % of the bag or buy 30 % of the bag. And then I'll be like, right, I'll set myself to dollar cost average every single day for the next two weeks. And if it drops 20 % one day, then I'll just stop that program and just buy a little bit on, on, on that day. So I feel like I've done well. And if not, then, you know, it is what it is.

1:01:18I feel like still on the psychology, you're kind of happy that it's going up, even if, because you kind of bought that first bag. So here's, I want to give a question to the audience for everybody who's watching this on YouTube and on the platform. What, assuming you can choose a meme that is over$50 million, what is going to be the best performing meme over this cycle from here? not from inception but from today what are you guys watching guys and girls watching this think is going to be the best performing meme and we will be reading all of this maybe we'll put together a spreadsheet of it all uh and put something on the platform on it but uh i think it will be fun yeah i'm curious to curious to see what the most popular answer is yeah the most yeah and what we'll do is we'll we'll put one of the for those of you who are watching this on YouTube, if you go across to Real Vision, it's free, realvision.com.

1:02:11We'll create, not a trade idea, but one of the notes on the outcome of this. I've just nominated Paul Guerra, who runs social media, to now do this. So we need to do that, put it all together, and we'll give you on the Real Vision platform the ability to see on that note. I look forward to hearing those responses. Yeah. It's just interesting to know, right? Well, I know what your two guys is now. it was like you've got your one for the cycle now four days old I'm still with Bonk and smoking chicken fish now and I still own Doge there we go every time I say smoking chicken fish you both laugh yeah it's hard not to laugh at that I think I think it's hard not to laugh at that alright I guess we should we should wrap it up there we're a little bit over the hour but thanks Ralph for joining it's always a pleasure to have you and it was a good show this one we went a little bit off piece but we had a lot of good good chat in the end make sure you're following us all on X OSF underscore rect Raul Pal or Raul GMI on X I believe it that's right and Rex Mando make sure you sign up to Real Vision Crypto as well realvision.com forward slash RVC next week we'll be doing the exclusive AMA and drink session with myself Mando so make sure you sign up to that on the Real Vision website and we will see you guys next Friday at the same time, 11.30 a.m.

1:03:38Eastern Time and 4.30 p.m. British Summertime. Have a good weekend, everyone. See you later, guys. See you later. Make large crypto trades with Kraken OTC. Execute orders of more than 100 ,000 off the open exchange through our premium OTC trading service. Get 24-7 access to deep liquidity, minimal slippage, and competitive execution and settlement services. Private and secure trading options include chatting securely with our trade desk for a personalized high-touch service or use our self-service RFQ for super-fast automated OTC trading. Non-investment advice, crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to U.S.

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