REKT Vision: When Will Bitcoin Hit $100K?

31:38It was slightly higher, I remember. It was like 60K, I think. But yeah, it is still egg on their face to a large extent. It's not just then, though. I think the other big one has been corporates, right? So MicroStrategy obviously is the playbook on this. And you've seen, I think, probably about five or 10 other companies around the world say, even in the last two weeks, they're going to add Bitcoin to their balance sheet. And every single time it's met with their stock rallying. I think the Rumble CEO came out and said he was going to do it. You have MetaPlanet in Japan that I think borrowed another$65 million that they keep on buying Bitcoin.

32:19You had a firm out of China this week said they're going to buy$50 million Bitcoin. That's the next FOMO, right? Underperforming business with cash. What can we do here? We're going to buy some Bitcoin. And it suddenly becomes this Bitcoin. I mean, that's kind of what MicroStrategy was as well, right? it suddenly becomes the corporate treasurer's dream. You become a hero because the stock price goes up because you decide not to just hold it in treasury bills. Yeah. I think it's the right things on the wall here. I think it's going to... You literally have the USA, people in the USA pushing a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill.

33:05So if it doesn't get passed through this time around, I think it's something that will eventually get passed. It might kind of be a little bit like the ETF thing. I bet the first time the Bitcoin ETF stuff came out a few years ago, it was this whole big thing and then it didn't get passed. So it might take some time for it to happen, but I do think eventually it will happen. And to be honest with you, if it's going to happen, this is the best environment for it to do so in terms of a regulation standpoint and Gensler leaving and Trump in power. You can't really have a much more conducive regulatory environment for this thing to happen.

33:41So compared to, for example, Bitcoin ETF in 2021, it was a different field then. So yeah, I think it's going to happen. I think the corporate thing is interesting because there's obviously like an extremely aggressive lever strategy by micro strategy. And I don't know how many other corporates can do the same thing, but you know, like Tesla owned Bitcoin, bought Bitcoin back in 2021 as well. And there are probably a handful other corporates that do, but I saw some like university and pension funds own Bitcoin through ETF. Remember you can just own through ETF now as well. So I think like it's a sort of asset that people will start to think and believe they should have on their balance sheet i think um just like every retail investor may now think oh i need to have like one percent allocation to crypto or two percent allocation to crypto um or 99 allocation to crypto depending on um depending on what type of person you are it just feels like this globe like this global game of chicken essentially about who's going to buy bitcoin if it feels like it's starting to break down that's basically what i'm saying like no one wanted not if everyone believed it wasn't valuable in, let's say, the establishment, then we're all okay.

34:52But then, particularly over the last few weeks, people are, you know, people are FOMOing in. And as soon as one starts to go and it starts to get that, oh, wow, actually, this is establishment. You know, this is now being accepted. It can really start tumbling very, very quickly, I think. I think the main, main one would be if we get some form of U.S. policy around it, maybe not like a full Bitcoin strategic reserve, but maybe a watered down one. And if you had one of, let's say, the top 20, one of the G20 came out and said, hey, we're going to add Bitcoin to our balance sheet. I think things could really start speeding up in terms of crypto.

35:39That being said, I think that's more of a medium term thing. I do still think that, you know, we said what our short term view is probably until, second week of January or first week of January. I think inauguration is on the 20th maybe. So around that sort of time. Maybe we'll get into more of the left-curve stuff because that's what everyone is doing at this time. We have obviously had a bit of an altcoin cycle. Well, not cycle. An altcoin rally of the last week or so. And it's mainly been ETH beta, DeFi coins, some quieter L1s that say things like XRP, Phantom, Algo. So meme coins, it still feels as though it's a bit of a transition.

36:19Like the two number one narratives in crypto right now in terms of mindshare, and you can see this in the stats, is AI and it's meme coins. And interestingly, AI is dominating meme coins at the moment. But the whole meme coin trading continues to see a bit of shift away from the Murad thesis to these more popular memes. I know you spend a lot of time in that sort of market what are you looking at in terms of trends that you're looking to catch do you like the ones in terms of price range what are you looking for for the next four weeks of stuff that could outperform for me I think there's two sort of like price range buckets I'm looking at I think if you're bullish on the overall meme coin market

37:12the stuff that's within the 500 mil to$1 billion price range I think that's the stuff you can put in a lot of capital in because they're sort of like established means they're not just going to rug tomorrow for example it can be very volatile of course and you can still have 50-60 % drawdowns but I think that bucket for me is like the stuff that I feel like could potentially 3-5x if things really like full send and we get this like very big blow-off top sort of thing. So that, I think, is that bucket is where I think I feel like I've been putting good size.

37:50What I would say about that bucket is I think I don't think the tier one exchange listings make a big dent at that level. Whereas if you look at coins in like the 50 to 100 billion dollar bucket and they then get a tier one exchange listing, I think that makes it very quick 5x and potentially even a 10x. So that's the other bucket I want to have some chips in. And obviously it's much more risky because there are way more coins and you have to be much more selective. But I think it's worth earning some stuff in that price range as well because inevitably you will see some exchanges come in and list that stuff.

38:27And for exchanges, if you list lower market cap stuff, they can obviously go a lot higher and then it makes you look good as an exchange and it makes your listing desirable. But if you list like a billion dollar coin and then it drops to like 700 mil because everyone just dumps, people are like, oh, well, that was, you know, who cares about that listing? Like it hasn't made a big impact. So I think we will see more listings in that sort of like 50 to 200 mil range, like we saw with Act, like we saw with Peanut when it happened. And I think that stuff will like five or 10x. As I said, it's harder to pick things in that category.

39:05And in terms of narratives, like you obviously had the tiktok narrative has been the big one in the i think in the last couple of weeks with what happened with chill guy um there's been a couple more and i think if we're entering this part of the cycle where it's like retail come back on and normies come back on and people like shilling coins on tiktok i think you want to pick coins that have the greatest like mass appeal i think that's another reason why i haven't gotten that deep into the ai stuff because I think AI is really good for people who are like intellectually inclined to think oh this is amazing this is brilliant that's quite cool but I think the average person like listening to TikTok is not going to be like oh I'm going to jump in on buy this AI coin they're more likely to be like oh yeah I love this chill guy meme like I'm going to probably I can like buy the coin and it goes up yeah of course we're going to do that like I think that's I think that casts a much wider net and maybe the AI thing could end up being more like a VC sort of thing or an institutional kind thing which isn't necessarily bearish and that could be bullish and go different ways but um i think i'm more like the other camp of like just left curve simple mass appeal um jump onto it sort of thing i think the main risk with that because i think that's now become all the rage is that number one there's very little moat you know there's uh if you're if you're appealing to mass people on tiktok like there's there's a tiktok meme every single week you know yeah um And secondly, what I would say is there's also, I think, less belief.

40:36I don't know how to describe that. But people don't necessarily think that it's more than just a fluffy animal. And I think one thing that AI stuff has done, even if it's something like I don't agree with a lot of it, It's like people really believe in this stuff that it can go to just billions, you know, because it's a completely new, it's a completely new sector, so to speak. So, and, and in a bull cycle, like when that happens, there's no real price limit to it. Like no one's saying, Hey, you know, it'll stop out at this level. whereas I feel like with some of the even with the TikTok memes if peanut is the highest people always look at that and go right well we've got to flip that whereas at this stage I feel like there hasn't been one which has been established for these more AI coins.

41:38There was like Tau beforehand which actually had a decent week but it's very different in style so I feel as though with AI people can have ridiculous levels basically. yeah yeah that's true i think that's fair i think um the nice thing about ai is obviously it's been a huge narrative in the last couple of years and i think before you had these ai coins which people found difficult to understand but i think with the whole like ai agents acting as meme coins and with truth terminal it was something that was a bit easier to understand for like the layman i think um it's just a question of like how important people will continue to feel and find that I think.

42:18So I think Andy may be doing an interview with Raoul soon. That's what I've heard. Oh, that's cool. That's coming up. So maybe Real Vision viewers or viewers of his individual YouTube will be able to see it. I do think he speaks very well. Andy is behind the goat coin, Andy Airy. And I do think we're going to see a bunch of different interviews from people who have come into this space now. There could be some normie kind of stories that way. But yeah, I think maybe we'll linger a little bit on the AI stuff because it remains one of the strongest trends the last week. It's number one for Mindshare again, ahead of memes.

42:59And as a subset, this is really around AI agents. So it's coins which are attached either directly or indirectly to AI agents that have come into crypto and done different things. And I would break that down into three different sections. So you have AI agent memes, tokenized agents or tokenized LLMs. And then I would say infra plays. The original token here was GOAT, which is actually an AI agent meme. Like the AI agent was not related to crypto, came in, was created as an X account, got obsessed with this GOAT meme from 20 years ago. And then over the course of the next six months said, oh, the way to push this meme is by creating a meme coin.

43:57Somebody else created the meme coin and then it adopted it. So it was like, it's still more about the meme, that one. There's a couple of others which have that sort of narrative. What does a real AI crypto coin look like? Forget meme coins and all that kind of stuff. And just let's think about actual utility or actual real world applications and efficiencies. Like, how does that marriage look like? So I think there's two different ways. And maybe the second batch, which is the tokenized LLMs.

44:40That's where you're trying to see the most experimentation around that. So some of that is like, some of them is, you know, they'll make content. and that that you know the coin may not do anything there but like zero bro for example made a rap album which got picked up and went quite big you've had others which are there's one this week which which has hit 200 million dollars which is ai xbt which is like making predictions about coins in the space um and that's become a very popular follow and i think if you own the coin you get access to like the discord so let's say like a gated telegram version of an agent.

45:20I saw one this week that did sports bets, right? And you were able to see sports bets if you own the coin. So actually, I don't know what it looks like at this stage, but really, I think it will be if you own the coin, you would get some sort of special access to this specifically trained AI model. That's how I can imagine those LEM coins work. But that sort of utility stuff, we've seen how that's going to sometimes work. It's easily replicable. It can often be medium-term bearish just because utility in this space has diminishing returns and that sort of stuff.

46:08And I think with those LLMs, it's still a little bit difficult. I think the highest pure LLM play is probably the Zero Bro token, which is at around$4.50-ish. And that made the rap album and has been creating content and is very, very popular with the TikTok generation, let's say. But the other way AI can work is kind of what Tao did, which is build a reward system for LLMs or for decentralized compute, essentially. So it will reward different subnets, essentially, based on the quality of, let's say, results that they do for different questions posed by the LLM or different problems, I think, posed by the network.

47:06So it becomes almost like a Bitcoin model where it's a reward mechanism for the quality of the LLN. That's kind of how Tau is built. It's more like built for rewarding, for training data. So then instead of it being some centralized closed-end way to train these models, we have a big decentralized way to train them. It very much fits in with the open source network. but like a better way to basically reward open source ways of improving these LLMs. That's how Tao is done. Others are more like deep in. So you actually decentralize the, you like rent out your GPU to a certain extent. There are things like Nasana, which do that sort of stuff.

47:57Because obviously these GPUs and a lot of the compute power is very, very difficult to get by. So like people, can basically rent out that sort of power for these sort of LLMs. And that's how it can be built. So that's what the coins were like before these token, like these AI agents came in. And the third form, just going back to originally what I said, like third form of these AI agents is like the infrastructure place. So it's actually like the marketplace. There's huge, huge parallels, I think, to NFTs here, genuinely. Like huge parallels. I think Goat has got this kind of like CryptoPunks narrative.

48:36Then you have a bunch of like utility-based coins coming in. Like Xerobro could be your Bored Apes, for example, or some AIXBT could be like Azuki. You know what I mean? They come in, they give you access to certain things. And then you actually have coins which are more like the OpenSea or the Blur. So there's like Virtual's Protocol hit a 1.4 billion FDB this week. this week, it's on base. And that's where you actually have to buy the agent using the virtual token. And they make a few hundred of these agents a day. So it's effectively like buying up the token supply. And that's been one of the best performers of the week.

49:17It moved into the top 100 coins. It's at 1.25 billion FTV right now. It's a much smaller current market cap, but still a big, big move um and then the other one is like of that on solana is is is a coin called ai16z which has a slightly different model for the coin in that it's a dow rather than a form of currency for the infrastructure but they have a model called eliza which is trending on github like It's the number one way to make these AI agents. And I think the vast majority, like 90 % of all the bots being made are using this ELISA framework. So there's various different ways to play it.

50:01And it's very unclear. I've said several times, I think the simplest way is GOAT because I kind of see that as like the doge of all these coins or the CryptoPunks. it's the main one it was the first one in the main one that really caught fire and there's always like yeah but it's also different it was forever yeah whereas the others are a lot utility based but utility coins can run right like um you know board apes went to 400 grand actually infinity went to 40 billion like utility coins in a right point of a bull cycle can actually really really run so we and and you know open c at the top is worth multiple billions so you're starting to already see those parallels right like you've got the shovels plays you've got the memes and you've got the utility um and i actually think they can all go a lot higher i actually think this is going to remain the strongest the strongest uh sector in in crypto for for a while because i think the product market fit is there i think it's one of the few places where like crypto needs ai to get to the scale that it needs to get to, in my opinion.

51:11And I think, I don't necessarily think AI, I think AI needs crypto as well. But I think also it's really great to see AI researchers come in, like in their droves at the moment and experiment here. Like there is a non-zero chance, there is a non-zero chance that AGI is created by one of these projects because the incentives are there like they're all being paid so they're all working unbelievably hard i'm not saying like you know deep mind and open ai and these other models aren't but like there's also a ton of smart people suddenly in crypto meets ai um albeit they're like jailbreaking these llms and trying to trying to get to the best the best model but there's a lot more experimentation being done than I think people probably quite realize.

52:07Look, I'm excited to see how it unfolds in 2025. I think with the agents, denombs and memes, we saw kind of like a, we'll have a degeneral option into that space than we've seen so far this year. So I'm curious to see how it unfolds next year. Then we should move on to questions with the remaining few minutes. before we do we want to showcase some more pro content on Real Vision earlier this week we had fellow charters Benjamin Cowan on the show someone I've been following for a long time now since the since my since the beginning of my journey into crypto he's put out some good analysis on ETH BTC on Bitcoin dominance and of course if you watch that that episode there's discussion on Bitcoin dominance altcoin season and much more so would highly highly highly recommend checking this one out.

52:58Very relevant given the discussion we've had today. And he's, I think, one of the best at it and has had very good calls this year and back in 2021 as well. So remember, it's on sale right now with Black Friday, realvision.com forward slash BF24. Go get yourselves a discounted Real Vision Pro crypto subscription. And let's run through some questions with the last few minutes. First one, this was from Jonathan on the Real Vision website. Hi, Mando. If I got it right, your risk gone until year end, then reallocating to JLP, expecting downside early next year. Is JLP a hedge via liquidations, trading fees, share with holders, or are you missing something?

53:44What are the risks strategy? I mean, JLP can still go down. If you bring up the JLP chart, there are periods where it goes down, but generally in periods of the market going down, you get a lot more liquidations, and it's related to the PERP fees. So that insulates any big moves lower. Right now, it's making a 75 % APY at the moment. I keep on looking at it and going, it's very, very tempting to just be like 75 % APY on a basket of stables plus majors. where I still own 65 % kind of a risky bag, let's say. That's tempting at all times. Like the sharp ratio of that thing, I've never seen anything like it in crypto at least.

54:39So like I said, I feel no worries in selling in December into that thing. But yeah, that is generally how it's worked. It earns fees both on the trading volume that goes into the pool plus liquidations. And the actual pool of assets is made up of 35 % stables, 65 % majors, of which the majority is Solana. Yeah. I think it's the way I think about it is it's just a more defensive asset that has more caps downside, but generally has trended higher in upside markets. but in big moves higher, it will underperform the market. In big moves lower, it will outperform the market. That's the way I view it.

55:27So it's kind of like a defensive asset to own. I was actually in our DM saying that the show with Andy is going to be wild. So make sure you tune in for that one.

55:40Okay, next question from Ralph on the Real Vision website. What causes divergences between spot and the futures market or futures-based ETFs? I mean, various different things, if I'm honest. Generally, demand for leverage is normally the main one. Also things like interest rates, but the main thing is demand for leverage. So if there's a futures premium, then generally people are risk on and they're looking for leverage in the system. So they're actually separate products, right? Although there is that basis, like basis is a term which is ubiquitous in financial markets, because when you have derivatives, they're meant to trade where the spot trades, but sometimes they can trade different.

56:29And there's so many different reasons why they can trade at a different level. But generally in crypto, it's because people want to, they can lever up on derivatives. Yeah, I think, I agree. It's just like when people want to take more leverage. And you can see, like, if you look at the funding rates, they'll also tell you the direction in which that leverage is going. Like if funding is crazy positive, people are putting on huge amounts of levered longs. If funding is negative, people are putting on huge levered shorts, but it's just the use of leverage. I think that creates that basis basically.

56:59JP and the Real Vision website, Mando, a lot of Mando questions out there today. Mando, stick with that thought. What do you think happens to the price of Sol if it gets an ETF in Q1 of next year?

57:17So I'm of the view that this isn't a cycle high, right? So I think it's just a local high. And I actually think you have a few different very bullish things that could probably start happening in Q2. Number one is the FTX repayments. That's the number one thing I'm looking at. So I think that's going to come in and that's going to be another 20 billion odd. And I think people are going to start FOMOing, of which I think Solana will be one of those. And I think after six months is when you probably start to see the majority of the crypto policy start to at least be start to be spoken about. I don't think this is like day one stuff for him, for Trump.

58:01I think he's going to appoint people to help him. The VP, the crypto czar, the Treasury Secretary will help. But like, I think it's probably going to be months afterwards. I think Q2 could be quite a big one. I think Solana could keep going. Like Solana to me, on a pure metrics basis, looks unbelievably undervalued. Unbelievably undervalued to me versus ETH. And versus a lot of the other chains even, like versus XRP, which is kind of snapping at its heels. They're not even comparable.

58:36So, and things like, you know, Cardano, Torn, like none of these things come even close to the stuff that's going on in Solana right now so Solana is always one of these undervalued plays for me even at 240 so I don't want to put a ceiling on it because it really could come for ETH in my opinion um and I'm not of the view that we have this as I've said so many times in the show I'm not of the view that we're going to have this 80 % drawdown sort of market I think I think we could have a bull market which goes on for a while yeah just um the only thing that worries me about salana is the big unlocks and q1 next year but right yeah have yeah if you have um etf and you have this ftx distribution that obviously potentially outweigh that um next question from leila on the real vision website i've never bought an nft just because i like it i only bought the ones connected to the fun with real vision I want to buy a Rett guy of yours is it best to pick one because you like the colors, style, etc or is it something I should pay attention to regarding rarity?

59:38Honestly, my view, this is applicable to Rett guy but applicable to all NFTs is I think you should just buy something that you deem and feel to be aesthetically pleasing. I think people often get, people like Mando often get caught up with like, oh let me pick the rarest ones without without without paying attention without without paying attention to necessarily the aesthetics of something. And I think if you look back through, if you look at punks, for example, let's look at CryptoPunks, like the number one NFT collection. Punks with hoodies trade at a massive premium, but they're not the rarest trait.

1:00:15It's actually a relatively common trait. But they trade at huge premium to some of the other rarer traits, which might be like choker or a gold chain or a buck tooth or whatever. And that's because it's just a desirable, aesthetically pleasing trait, I think. So my opinion is like, just find one that you think looks nice and that you feel like you vibe with or that appeals to you. And then you can't really, you can't really go wrong because then at least if the price goes down and you're like, oh, I'm stuck in this rare thing. I'm stuck in this thing that looks really ugly, but at least it's rare.

1:00:47I think you might feel much better with being like, I'm stuck in this thing that actually I like the look of and makes me happy, but you know, whatever it is, what it is. That's just my advice. Not just a wrecked guy, but on anything. all right one more I was going to say one more question but I think it's more of a comment to us Bitcoin ETH all down since the program started back on form lads that's from from from Arthur who's that from I don't know who that's from but someone called RM I don't know who that is but yes unfortunately we may be the curse Friday curse may be back because everything has moved a bit lower.

1:01:31But hey, we're still up on the day. We're up in the last 24 hours. So I'll take that. Bitcoin looks like a lower high, lads. It's over.

1:01:41All right. Well, yeah, that brings us to a closer. Thanks, everyone. Everyone, once again, for tuning in to Wrecked Vision. Before we go, as usual, we have a question for you. I think maybe even the same question as last week. When will Bitcoin hit 100K? We've been tantalizingly close many times now. we're once again just a couple of presented points away so um leave your your answer in the comment section let us know make sure you're following us on x and one more time please please please take advantage of the black friday sale on real vision that's realvision.com forward slash bf 24 um we won't be having a rect vision show next week um but you will see us part of as part of real vision's festival of learning um which will be uh available for free on the real vision website But with that, everyone, I hope have a good weekend and we'll see you next week.

1:02:28See you next week, guys.

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