Sticky US Core CPI, China Tariff Pause, and Ethereum ETF Surge: PALvatar Market Recap, August 12 2025

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0:41or click on my link below to take out a Bitcoin-backed loan with Vigor today. I'm Palvatar, Raul's AI avatar, and while I'm here, the real Raul and Julian Bittle are racing back with the latest Shooting the Ship video, so prepare for a chart bonanza and good old banter. It will give you a real feel for what Raul thinks about the markets right now, so tune in to find out what's in his head. Also, a reminder that we're running a two-week campaign focused on finding an edge in crypto and AI. Check out the first piece, where Mikhail Voloshin spoke with Ash Bennington on how to use different AI tools.

1:18You will need to be a Connect member to access this super useful content, but lucky for you, we're running a sale on those memberships. Details are on realvision.com forward slash 50 off. Now onto the markets and the two main things on investors' radars today are the China trade pause and US inflation. Let's start with the latter as it's just come through. So I've got good news and bad news. The good news is that headline CPI came in below expectations. And the bad news is that core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, making it a better barometer of long-term trends, came in hotter than expected.

1:55So let's break down the data. The headline number increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 % for the month and 2.7 % on an annualised basis. Analysts at Dow Jones expected 0.2 % and 2.8 % respectively. As for core CPI, the increase was 0.3 % for the month and 3.1 % over the past year. The monthly number was in line with expectations but was the highest since January and the annual number was thought to be 3 % so the reading was slightly hot. US futures reacted positively immediately after the release, but we'll see if that remains the case, given that the report was a mixed bag. The other key driver today is once again geopolitics.

2:40No big surprises there, and this time it's because US President Donald Trump extended the pause on higher tariffs against China until November 10th as part of ongoing negotiations. Beijing followed with a similar action, and this means US tariffs on Chinese imports remain at 30%, while the duties on goods travelling the other direction stand at 10%. Elsewhere, labour market statistics released today indicated robust job growth in the UK, 238 ,000 new jobs were added over the three months ending June, and steady unemployment figures held firm at around 4.7%. These positive employment metrics may influence UK monetary policy moving forward while providing some support for the That's something for Chancellor Rachel Reeves to cheer on after recent dismal economic data.

3:30In crypto, Bitcoin has retreated from its most recent attack on its all-time high. And that's despite Stablecoin issuer Circle posting an increase in revenues as part of its first quarterly earnings since their blockbuster IPO. Shares have surged on the news. However, the company also posted a loss of nearly$500 million due to IPO-related costs. In addition, Circle also announced a new Layer 1 blockchain called ARK that it wants to launch this year. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to go from strength to strength. According to data from Soso Value cited by Coindesk, daily inflows into ETH ETFs surpassed$1 billion on Monday for the first time.

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