Tariff Reinstatement, Falling PCE Inflation, and Rising Jobless Claims: PALvatar Market Recap, May 30 2025

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0:49Sign up today at figure.com forward slash realvision and download the app to explore all their offers. Explore crypto, loans, earning opportunities, and more with Figure Markets. Happy Friday, everyone. Remember that old saying that markets hate uncertainty? Well, there's plenty of it today. What is certain, though, is that you're in the right place if you want to get up to speed on what's driving investor sentiment. As Palvatar, Raul's AI avatar, I'm going to give you the facts, but if you're looking for the views and analysis of the real Raul, you'll need to check his latest Shooting the Shit with Julian from yesterday.

1:26Now, on to the news, as we have lots to get through. The tariff seesaw has played a major role this week, and that's the case again today. A US federal appeals court has temporarily reinstated President Trump's sweeping import duties, which had been briefly blocked due to legal challenges regarding their implementation under emergency powers. Meanwhile, President Trump accused China of violating its preliminary trade agreement with the US. This uncertainty is having an impact on investor sentiment across global markets, as traders await further clarity on these policies. Another key driver today is inflation.

2:04The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE for short, is the Fed's preferred metric for gauging price increases. The headline rate for April increased by 0.1 % month over month, bringing the annual rate down to 2.1%, lower than expected and the lowest since September. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.1 % month over month and 2.5 % from a year ago, marking its lowest level since March 2021. Let's also recap all the important data that came in for the US economy later in the day yesterday. The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week.

2:47Initial jobless claims rose by 14 ,000 to a five-week high of 240 ,000, but some blame it on seasonal adjustments rather than layoffs. However, the number of unemployed workers who collect unemployment benefits on an ongoing basis rose by 26 ,000 to more than 1.9 million based on seasonally adjusted figures. That's the highest level since 2021, and may result in an increase in the unemployment rate in the May jobs report. Separately, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, corporate profits in Q1 dropped to$118 billion, the lowest since late 2020. Also, a revised measure of the US GDP in the first three months of this year showed a contraction of 0.2%, so slightly better than previously estimated.

3:36Looking elsewhere, Germany reported an unexpected decline in retail sales, while Japan saw stronger-than-expected core inflation figures. These contrasting trends highlight ongoing disinflationary pressures in Europe against rising price levels in Japan, which are likely to influence future monetary policy discussions at both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. The ECB meets on Wednesday. That's it for this week. Hope you have a great weekend, and I'll see you again on Monday.