Tariff Tensions, China Growth Signals, and Crypto Volatility: PALvatar Market Recap, January 19

0:05Hi everyone, hope you had a good weekend and are prepared for an utterly wild week. No, I'm not talking about the Greenland situation. OK, that too. But the main reason is the upcoming crypto gathering. It starts this Thursday in Miami Beach, when the real Raoul will kick things off with a live Drinks with Raoul. And I've got good news for you. I think you can still find some tickets left. Head over to realvision.com forward slash crypto gathering to grab your social pass for$300 if it's only the parties you're interested in, or go for the collaborator pass if you're after a more rounded experience.

0:43I'll be here delivering the news and cheering you on from my Cayman room. After all, I'm Palvatar, Raul's AI avatar. Please bear with us if you find this week a little lighter in content as the team travels to Miami and gets busy making sure people at CryptoGathering have the most amazing experience. We'll keep you informed and entertained regardless of where you are. So, let's take a look at what's driving investors' sentiment today. As ever, none of this represents the views of the real Raoul. Tariffs and China's economic performance are the two main drivers today. Global markets, particularly European, have fallen due to the threat of a reignited tariff war.

1:25The EU is preparing to retaliate if US President Donald Trump goes ahead with slapping tariffs on European countries that don't support his plan to acquire Greenland. Trump said over the weekend that he would place 10 % tariffs that could eventually rise to 25 % on imports from Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Germany, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. If it goes ahead, the EU could impose retaliatory tariffs worth€93 billion. euros. In a widely reported letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister, Trump linked his desire to control Greenland to failed efforts to win a Nobel Peace Prize.

2:06Gold and silver surged to all-time highs on the developments. US stock markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day, but futures fell significantly. The dollar also weakened against the pound and the euro, which recovered from a nearly two-month low. Speaking of the euro, the eurozone consumer consumer price inflation eased to 1.9%, falling below the ECB's target for the first time since May. This reinforces expectations that interest rates will remain on hold for an extended period. Equity trading in Asia was more mixed. China's economy grew at 4.5 % in the final quarter of the year, compared to the same period the year before.

2:48Although it marked a slowdown, it was slightly ahead of expectations. It means China's GDP grew at 5 % in 2025, in line with the government's target. A surge in demand for Chinese goods worldwide made up for a slump in domestic consumption. This was reflected in fixed asset investment falling 3.8 % year-on-year in 2025, as ongoing weakness in the property market dragged on. This was the first annual decline since records began in 1996. Retail sales also disappointed in December. The Bank of Japan is meeting on Friday, but is widely expected to keep the rates unchanged. That's also when Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi will dissolve Parliament to hold an election on February 8.

3:36A drop of 11 % in Japan's core machinery orders in November, far worse than analysts had expected, and the biggest since April 2020, underscores the challenges ahead for Japan. The IMF has revised its growth projection for the country this year upwards to a modest 0.7%. Bitcoin didn't react well to the geopolitical drama. It fell some$3 ,000 late on Sunday. The block cites data from Coinglass that shows more than$750 million worth of long positions got liquidated in just four hours. This capped what had been an otherwise strong few days for Bitcoin and Ether, whose spot ETFs had their best week since October.

4:19Strategy chairman Michael Saylor signalled on X on Sunday that his company is about to make a large purchase of Bitcoin. There was also good news on the activity front for Ethereum. The block says transaction volume has reached an all-time high, while average gas fees are at a historical low. Meanwhile, the battle on Capitol Hill over crypto regulation continues, with reports from Crypto in America host Eleanor Terrett of a clash between the White House and Coinbase, which CEO Brian Armstrong denied. And staying with the regulatory theme, Decrypt reports that South Korea is tightening its oversight of crypto apps while working on new rules for security token offerings.

5:02That's all I've got for you today. Andreas and Mikkel will be all over the geopolitics today, so make sure you tune in. Thanks for listening and see you again tomorrow.

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