Trading the Markets (April 16)

0:00Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

0:28happy wednesday everyone and welcome back to episode five of trading the markets i'm bijan malecki and i'm joined by chris bullock this is the show where we talk about our weekly trade ideas what we're looking at what's caught our attention what we're interested in so just keep Keep in mind, these are not financial advice recommendations, but ones that might be interesting to you to check out yourself. And with that, you know, we've got a pretty interesting week in the markets already. And before I pass it off to Chris, I just want to let you all know, if you have any questions that you want us to take live, just drop it in the chat, the live comments, the comment section on our platform.

1:11You can drop it in our Twitter comment section, or you can just drop them in Discord, and we'll take what we can live on air. That's what we do here on this show. So, Chris, how are you doing? How's the week been for you so far? Week's been good. Week's been good. Lots of interesting price action. But the bottom line is uncertainty reigns supreme still. It's just nothing wants to show its hand either way, you know, so we're just kind of meandering sideways. ways, but stuff's starting to point a little bit to the downside, which I don't know. I don't know if I want to put much weight onto it or not, but I've got some fun ways to look at the market today and interpret it with an indicator that I don't typically talk about.

1:51So we'll get into that here in a little bit. Yeah, no, I'm sure people are definitely looking forward to that, kind of seeing your overview of the market. So why don't we just jump right into that, see what's got your attention, what you're looking at, and see kind of your market overview before we get started on some specific trades. So yeah, let's, well, I want to talk about the Ichimoku cloud today because I'm on a bit of a kick with it. I, you know, every couple months I pull it up and just kind of dig in and go through every chart in my watch list with it. I probably should do that more often because half the time I do that, I'm like, ah, dang, there was some good signals here that I wish I would have been paying closer attention to.

2:28I need to, I need to have this up more often, You know, so I've kind of vowed to keep this tab open in my trading view and visit it more frequently because there's definitely some good signals to be had here. And I just want to start with start with Bitcoin. Well, actually, before let me back up, let me just do a brief. I mean, this is going to be the most brief 10 second overview of what this indicator even is, because I know it's a little bit different than maybe some of the ones you're used to. But in its essence, in a nutshell, you can think of these these lines, all these lines as moving averages, basically.

3:02And so ultimately, we want to see, you know, all of the moving averages in the right order and price above all the moving averages. That would constitute an uptrend, basically. And right now, all the moving averages are essentially in the wrong order. They're all upside down. They're all reversed and they're all in a downtrend. And most of them are acting as resistance, you know, across the board with with a handful of exceptions here and there. So but yeah, I just want to quickly touch on Bitcoin here. It's it's basically broken above one of the moving averages and it's seeing resistance against the second one.

3:35And then we've got the cloud here that we ultimately needed to get above. Now, the first thing we're going to want to see is this blue moving average actually flip and cross over above the red one. So the blue moving average is called a conversion line. The red one is called a baseline. We need to see that flip. So that's, you know, step number one. Step number two, we need to see price ultimately get above this red cloud and to the upside. And we're not seeing that. In fact, we're seeing a lot more, again, resistance than we are support across the board on many, many of these assets. So I kind of wanted to just quickly go down a list and show you, you know, what I'm seeing here.

4:15but you know basically bitcoin pretty ugly e uh much uglier it's below all of its lines and you know heavily heavily resisted solana actually looks okay but solana was more oversold i think than than a lot of these so it's having it's having a nice bounce here but it's got a lot more work to do to catch up to begin with uh sui is another really popular one that we talk about a lot kind of the same thing it got rejected off of you know off of its conversion line um xrp is another one that comes up a lot. XRP looks a little bit better because it wasn't as bad off to begin with. But the one that's, again, standing out that is just getting all the attention for weeks and weeks now is Fartcoin.

4:56And not only is it above both, but it has had this sort of crossover that we're looking for. So it's got a crossover and it's working its way up into the cloud. And the good thing about this is it's pushed up into it now three or four or five times. typically once this happens and it can flip this bottom line to support uh the top tends to act a bit as a bit of a magnet and and you you can often expect it to run to the upside or the the opposite end of the cloud uh you know relatively quickly uh more often than not not every time it's not like a predictor but more often than not you know you'll see it run up so hopefully if it can close here maybe get above this wick from the other day um you know we've got you know a dollar 44 or$1.50 in the cards potentially on the short term if the strength can continue.

5:43Conversely, if it gets rejected here, you know, we might be looking at a trip back down to back down to the 65, 70 cent level to kind of do a bit of a breather, catch its breath before resuming the uptrend. Another one is SPX that I touched on quite a bit. It's almost had its crossover, so that's cool, but it kind of got rejected here and it needs to get back above, but it's right on the line and it's very close to having a crossover too. So So it's in the conversation, but not quite there, not quite as strong. So, yeah, I went through all my whole list of majors and memes and everything. There were a couple others that I'll touch on briefly that stood out that were – or actually, no, I'll come back to that.

6:25Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. I do have a question for you actually about that really quickly. For those of you that are interested in the Ichimoku cloud and you want to dive more into that, We actually have an episode in our Crypto Academy from Carpe Noctum where he explains how to use that.

7:08So if you're interested, definitely check that out. I have a question for you, though, on your fart coin chart. So you mentioned that the rejection level, right? So if it does get rejected and it goes back down to that like$0.66,$0.65 level, are you going to be looking to add more to your bag there? or are you going to wait and see how it does off of that level? I personally would not because I would still be well in profit at that level, even if it did come back down. And I'm pretty well fully allocated at the moment. So to me, that would just be, again, catching its breath in a larger uptrend.

7:45But if you are in a position to and you've got dry powder or you're looking to get an allocation, absolutely wait for that. And if you get that level, I think that's a good buy level. um i wanted to uh kind of piggyback on what you said about the academy show i actually used that tutorial because the default settings for the ichimoku cloud are a little bit different they're more centered towards trad fi um and the the the uh the schedule that stocks trade on and the level of volatility that stocks trade on and so he actually went in and modified his settings uh to kind of be to reflect the the way the crypto market works a little bit better and so i use his settings.

8:23That's what I've dialed in my Ichimoku cloud settings to based on his his recommendations. So I do encourage everyone to go watch that because it is a little bit different than the default settings. And I think it does make a big difference, especially if you're using it to follow crypto specifically. So. So, yeah, recommend that. Yeah, absolutely. Good shout out. Shout out to Carpe Noctem as well there. All right, Chris. So what do we what have we got this week in terms of of trades and just ideas? I know that you wanted to talk about the crypto dashboard again as well, because that's really helped you find some things.

8:59It's a brand new dashboard from Jamie Coots. So actually, for those of you that are pro members, Jamie did an AMA on Monday where he actually walked through his dashboard again and talked about some of the updates that are coming that he's going to be adding to that dashboard. So definitely check that out if you are a pro member. And if you're not, you know what, take an upgrade and check that out because that crypto dashboard is going to it's going to pay itself off for you as well. So and there's some amazing upgrades coming to it on the way to that are in development that will be that will make it 10 times better than it is already.

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10:35So yeah, with that said, so looking at the dashboard briefly, I wanted to first, I've touched on this, I think, a couple of weeks ago, but I like to start out with the equal weight market cap or market cap weight versus equal weight, because we know when equal weight starts outpacing market cap weight, that that means alts are basically running and outpacing the higher higher cap like the Bitcoin. And right now we're not really seeing that yet. Even on the one day it's down on the seven day, you know, it's up 10 percent, but it's still not up as much as the market cap weight. And then the 30 day it's well down, 90 day well down and so on and so forth.

11:08So this tells us that it is not alt season yet and that Bitcoin dominance continues to reign supreme, basically. And, you know, it's going to keep going, basically, I think. But outside of that, what I what I like to do is dig down into these sections down here and see sort of what sectors within the crypto space are outperforming the most. And then kind of dig in and see what sort of subsectors within that are outperforming. and uh the you know just looking at the seven day here and then the 30 day basically digital currencies are are typically doing the best and and historically have been even you know on the year on a on a sort of rotating year yearly basis so i dig into here and then we can see within this uh meme coins again you know on a seven day basis uh are are leading the pack and so dig into here once again and you know you can sort it by daily you can sort it by weekly but um you know once again, fart coin, basically just kind of crushing everything across the board.

12:03And so this, of course, this, this justifies why, you know, it keeps coming up in our conversations. But one of the ones that sort of caught my eye that I sort of totally flown under the radar, never even heard of it until this morning. And I think mainly because it operates on Binance Smart Chain, which is predominantly accessed, you know, via the Asian market. And so us being, you know, American, Western, we don't typically get exposure to some of these other memes like that. But I went and looked at the chart and it's pretty interesting so i wanted to pull up the chart briefly um because i was like wow what is this cheems i never you know like i said i never even never even heard of it um so i'm like well let's look at the ichimoku and i'm like well what do you know even since uh you know the beginning of the year when everything has mostly been down on the year like well down even some some memes down 90 plus percent um it's actually slightly up on the year overall and it's well above you know it's it's green cloud which is pretty noteworthy um now i don't know much about this again it's it's a you know a small meme it's not even in the top 100 it's it's like 136 or something market cap but it's hanging along hanging on um you know it's it's all of its moving averages are basically in the correct order the blue red and then green green red so interesting observation there another one that caught my eye through that was this npc token, which also structurally looks a little bit better than most.

13:23Granted, it had a massive 90 plus percent drop, you know, from the beginning of the year, but it had a bullish crossover and it's worked its way up into the cloud, too. So it could be looking at a bit of a run here. It's had a stronger bounce out of the lows, I think, than most assets that we've that we've seen. So to me, that was a noteworthy one, too. And that one came up on our Monday show, Bijan, too. And I had noticed it then. But yeah, so those are a couple that have caught my eye through this crypto dashboard that I was looking at. Oh, that's great. So, Cheems, that's definitely a new one for sure.

13:59If anyone here watching has a bag of Cheems, throw that in the comment. Don't let us know how much you have, but I'd be curious to know how many of our people watching actually have known about that before. So, that's a great spot from Jamie's dashboard. um uh what about so i know offline we were actually we were talking about radium a little bit as well uh because they're in the news recently with um with a competitor to pump.fun and kind of their own token launchpad so what have you got for us uh radium wise yeah yeah so exactly so today they announced uh earlier today uh the product is called launch lab and it is a literally a direct competitor to pump.fun it's a it's a platform where you can basically launch your own tokens.

14:44It has the same sort of bonding curve, you know, dynamics and things like that it uses, but it also aims to improve on some of the deficiencies that Pump.Fun has and be, you know, overall a better product. And so it's going to be real interesting to see how that plays out. But the market responded nicely to it. It's up 16 % on the day. At one point it was up, you know, as high as around 20%. And it seems to be, you know, a positive announcement for them. I'm super curious to see how it plays out because um you know radium is definitely a larger overall project and product than what pump.fun is and so for them to kind of take back that that i guess market share from pump.fun and put it right back into radium um you know it's going to be interesting and we know that radium i think i would argue was a fair bit oversold more so than a lot of these other tokens, you know, in the correction.

15:38And so there's a, there's a potential for it to bounce quite a bit higher as a result of this. So it could, you know, claw back a lot of this and, you know, get some sort of outsized price action to the upside as a result of being as oversold as it was. And then if we look at it just from like the Ichimoku standpoint, let's, I do want, it's, it's not awesome, but it's, it's a step in the right direction. You can see because it's two moving averages, its conversion line and baseline were, again, very, way, way deviated far apart, again, because of it being tremendously oversold compared to a lot of other assets.

16:12So it's got a lot more technical ground to make up to sort of get back to a, you know, a bullish crossover on these moving averages. But we can see, at least at the very least, it's well above its conversion line and has a lot of momentum and has bounced significantly from the bottom. So a good step in the right direction for Radium. And it's, you know, I think one to keep a close eye on because in the Solana ecosystem, it's, you know, absolutely one of the biggest players. And so it stands to benefit, particularly if memes really, really kind of come back online, which we're seeing signs of that, you know, we're seeing, I feel like the meme sector, yes, it died or it didn't, maybe it didn't die, but it's been sort of hiding below the surface, you know, and just kind of waiting to come back in favor.

16:57Yeah, some memes corrected a huge amount, but other memes didn't. And I think that we're going to see, you know, if sort of the psyche turns back around to the meme sector, we're going to see the likes of Radium and even Solana itself run, I think, really hard. And I think just quickly, too, we're seeing that with Solana, too. It's actually having a nice bounce off the bottom, I think, as a product, even of just a fart coin could be driving a lot of this for that matter, you know, because there's a lot of tension coming back. And I typically I'll notice like I know SPX trades on both Ethereum and Solana.

17:32And I'll notice you can't really see it on my watch list here, but but typically I'll see the Solana blockchain version of of SPX generally doing a little bit better overall, you know, having a little bit more trading volume as of late. And so we're seeing activity coming back into the Solana ecosystem through memes and even through AI a little bit. And I think that that trend is going to continue. Yeah, absolutely. I think it's, I mean, it's been pretty clear so far that Solana is where people prefer to make their meme purchases, whether it's because it's cheaper, maybe faster, whatever it is, it's definitely the leader on the memes space.

18:07But a quick note about Radium. I do love that they are competing in the space. And I think ultimately that's going to be beneficial to us, the end user who's using these platforms um because uh we're just going to get a better user experience and i think competition just breeds that within it another thing too radium has that track record right they were around last cycle with solana uh so that's another interesting thing that radium's kind of as you noted chris taking back the market share that they lost so i do like that right um so my trade for this week i am going i've mentioned this a few times you guys are probably going to start thinking I'm like a maxi.

18:44But I want to talk about deep. And I want to highlight Jacob Combs trade from from April 4th that he input on the platform here. He's up 41 and a half percent on his his deep trade. He has an entry price of just under six cents and take profit at one dollar stop loss at four cents. His reason why buying the dip. And that's kind of what I've mentioned And the past couple of weeks on these trading episodes here that I am a big fan of, if you are, if you have that conviction, if you've done your research, why not buy the dip on these coins like that, right? I think deep is a very interesting coin, right, within the SWE ecosystem.

19:27A lot of us are big believers in SWE having a nice come up in this cycle, if you will. and deep as a beta, the liquidity layer on deep, should outperform what SWE does on a percentage basis just because it has that smaller market cap. So I am a big believer in deep just because I'm a big believer in SWE. So I think SWE will end up running and just as a default, deep is going to run with it. So that's my idea. I wanna give a shout out to Jacob as well who had a similar idea. Great minds think alike, Jacob. and he's up 41.5 % on that trade so far. Nice. I'm going to pull it up on the Sichimoku indicator and sort of see what it's looking like.

20:12Oh, that's, yeah, yeah. So, well, it's had a nice, I mean, it definitely, it had a huge wick up as we can see, but it's come back down to earth a little bit. But again, nice bounce above its conversion line, you know and we can see there's a drastic uptick on the conversion line it actually came all the way up to the baseline and sort of got rejected but definitely nice bounce from the bottom um i'd really like to see it continue that momentum but we know that like you said i think that uh there's definitely a case to be made for for deep uh for upside on deep to continue but um yeah technically it's it's it's above average i would say a little bit you know in terms of uh coming off the lows across the board.

20:55So yeah, good call. Yeah, let's see if it keeps running. SWE has a base camp coming up in Dubai soon for, what is it? Is that token 2049? Yeah, so they're going to, hopefully some cool information comes out of there. Some bullish narratives come out of that base camp. But SWE's building, they're doing a lot on the building side of things. So definitely looking forward to what they've got going forward. Nice. Awesome. Do we, it looks like we don't have any questions yet. Chris, did you have any other trades that caught your attention this week? No. It's still tough right now, right? It is tough.

21:39And I mean, that's worth commenting on, on its own. I've probably spent, you know, a good 90 minutes in the lead up to the show, scouring the market, looking at every, you know, index I could find. I go on CoinMarketCap, I go on the RV Crypto dashboard to just sort of see what is outperforming on an aggregate basis. And it's so hard to pick anything. If you look at the alt season index on CoinMarketCap, there's maybe 15 assets that have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days. And most of them are just kind of not even, you know, they're brand new and they just had a big pump and they've gone down or gone sideways since then.

22:17There's a handful of exchange tokens. There's the gold pegs that, you know, the gold pegs are still trucking along because gold is still doing well. So that it's like stuff like that. That's what's outpacing Bitcoin right now is just the stuff that really doesn't move a ton in general. Anyway, the stuff that's maybe a little bit less volatile than even Bitcoin. And so that's why it's sort of outpacing Bitcoin over the last 90 days. But there's not much to pick from. I mean, it is just it. Like I said, it's a very timid market right now. It's, you know, it's just uncertainty reigns supreme. And it's, you know, just kind of, we just got to kind of sit and wait it out, you know, maybe be in, have some exposure to gold, have some, have some, now's the time to sort of be a little bit de-risked and, and be looking to buy dips and things like that.

22:59But we're not there yet. And we're, technically, we have a lot of work to do really to reestablish these uptrends on weekly timeframes. And it's, you know, we're not even close, honestly. Like, so we're, it's still tenuous. And so we need to see some steps in the right direction because it could just as easily leg back down or double bottom again. Bitcoin could double bottom again before we ultimately run up. Now we know the macro is good from everything that we keep hearing from everybody, especially in the macro experts within the Real Vision community and within the Real Vision team. So we know that like good things are coming, but um you know it's a it's a process bottoming is a process as they say and um it we're still in it and so we're still in it until we're not basically yeah no absolutely and it we could very well like this could just be like an extended cycle so it might just be taking longer for things to happen i also saw um i think it was a comment or it was a tweet i can't remember but i saw someone mention that coinbase uh put out in their newsletter that they seem to think we're in a micro bear market right now.

24:06So I thought that was an interesting piece of information coming at it. I guess you can't really argue with it based on all the prices that we've been seeing, how hard it is to find some decent runners right now. Absolutely. And even on, yeah, if you look at it, if you zoom out to like a monthly timeframe, even we're right on the, basically the longer term monthly trend line for this four year cycle with Bitcoin. and it's right there, you know. So and even if you look at some on-chain metrics, there's definitely on-chain metrics for Bitcoin and in particular that do say, yeah, bear market, Bitcoin bear market all the way.

24:41Now, granted, that's on-chain. It doesn't factor in any sort of external macro anything or anything financial, really. It's strictly just reflecting on-chain activity of Bitcoin, nor does it reflect like ETFs because ETFs have actually a very small on-chain footprint. you know, compared to what they used to. So the data is a little bit skewed, but nevertheless, it is indicating a bear market in the moment. So, yeah. Yeah, I guess time will tell. So that's going to do it for us today, guys. Just a note, if you have any questions that you didn't get to ask today, join our Discord and you can ask them anytime you want.

25:18We have plenty of people that dive into the charts that are happy to answer your questions or give some of their own uh suggestions and uh kind of uh alpha if you will so yeah definitely join our discord and and take part in the conversation until then we'll see you guys uh next week and also you want to join our discord to tune into our longer show on mondays that we host live in the discord and we literally just take your questions for like an hour just diving into every chart that you guys want us to look at and chris kind of sees what he can get from the chart and we'll take it from there.

25:53So yeah, join us and take part in the conversation and the alpha and let's all win together, guys. Until then, see you guys next week. Thanks for tuning in. If you liked this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.

26:21Trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500.