Trading the Markets: Ep. 2 | Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki

0:00Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

0:28Hi, everyone. Welcome back to Episode 2 of Trading the Markets. I'm Bijan Malecki, and I'm joined by RV crypto contributor Chris Bullock. Chris, how are you doing today? Doing great, Bijan. It's one of those days. Yeah, it is one of those days. You know what? Let's just jump right into it, guys. So every week, Chris and I come to you every week to talk about some trades that we're thinking of, how we're feeling about the market, and how you can navigate the market as well. And just a reminder, we are taking live questions. So if you guys have anything you want to ask us, just type it into the chat, and we'll get to as many questions as we can.

1:08And without further ado, Chris, how are you feeling about the markets right now? Are you feeling about trades? And talk to us. I wish I felt better, honestly. just cautiously optimistic is kind of the word I've been using. We are technically, there is some good news. We are in a bit of a reversal, but it's very anemic. There's just, you know, not a lot of wind in the sails, not a lot of momentum. And so I wanted to give a little bit of a breakdown of sort of where the market looks like overall, what I'm seeing on the Bitcoin chart at large to sort of set the tone, I think, for the rest of the show and the rest of these trades we're going to look at, because I think that this is important.

1:43So basically the good news is on the daily level, we have reversed. We are in an uptrend. We've gotten above the 200-day moving average. We're above the 10-day moving average. The 10 and the 20-day moving averages have crossed over to the upside. Things look good on the daily. We definitely have reversed the downtrend. But we still have a lot of hurdles that we need to get through on the weekly timeframe to really, I feel like, cement this rally and have it not just end up being a countertrend rally in a larger downtrend that ends up rolling over and setting lower lows. So what I'm looking for on this chart here is you can see right now, we had set this low and we've come back up.

2:23We've eclipsed these two moving averages, but right now we're basically right at the resistance level that was formed by this cluster over here. And I kind of extended this box to sort of show this level. We've been rejected here right now. As of today, we tried to wick up above it three times now and are basically holding right below it and are rejected. This is not a good sign. This is kind of more a sign of weakness than anything. And really, ultimately, what we need to see before I'm going to start to feel good about this market is not only to break through this cluster here, but to get back above this bull market support band, which represents like the 20 week moving average and really back up into this range here that we were in, you know, starting from the beginning of the year until February or so when things kind of went south.

3:10So I need to see us get back into here. I need to see us get back above the 20-week moving average. And really, honestly, I'm not going to feel super comfortable until we've kind of broken above 95, 98, maybe even 100 with some energy, with some enthusiasm. And this sort of slow grind isn't doing it for me at all. So that's kind of where we're at. I think we'll get there. I really do. But what I'm worried about is I'm worried about us getting up here and then just kind of rolling over again. And if that's the case, then I feel like, you know, we might be in for some longer pain well into the summer until basically until sort of the whatever Trump's plan is in terms of his tariffs and his economic changes.

3:55They need to kind of take time to unfold. And I think we're seeing that uncertainty right now reflected in the charts. and it may take a few more months for everything to kind of cement itself and for us to sort of see what's actually going on. And then, you know, then the markets will come back around. So if we get a rejection up in this range, which is really what I'm going to be looking for, then, you know, it's not looking good for a minute. So I might look to hedge, de-risk a little bit at that point, but we're not there yet. We're still in an uptrend until we're not. So I'm going to stay with that.

4:29But yeah, that's kind of where we're at. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. Yeah. So, you know, definitely we're in some turbulent times and some choppy waters right now. So I guess with that being said, you know, and obviously, guys, again, this is not financial advice.

5:12These are just kind of trades that we find interesting or ones that we want to maybe look into a little bit more before deciding to deploy some capital into them. So just keep that in mind when we talk about any of the trades on this show here. So with that said, Chris, you know, navigating these choppy waters, what kind of trade would you be interested in making or what are you looking at right now in terms of a trade that you could make? So good question. What I'm looking at right now is sort of what has the most relative strength in this moment? What is bouncing off the lows the most? What's, you know, outshining everything else?

5:52And so what I'm going to do is, first of all, I'm going to use Bitcoin as a bit of a proxy here in terms of when or if I think I should get out of any of these trades that I'm going to talk about. So I'm going to get into some trades, which I'll get into. But if I see Bitcoin start to get rejected up around this area here on this chart, you know, back in the 95 to 98 range, if Bitcoin gets rejected here, then any altcoin or any meme that I'm in, I'm going to get out of no matter what, basically. because this is going to tell me that everything is rolling over. However, in the meantime, I still think we have a week or two to play out before we get to that point.

6:28So there's a small window of opportunity here, potentially, to capitalize on a couple things. And what I've noticed is, surprisingly, believe it or not, memes have been outpacing everything. If we look at this dominance chart here, I've got Bitcoin dominance here, meme dominance, ETH dominance, and then sort of alt dominance or others.d, which is basically everything outside the top 10. And if we can see here, memes clearly are outpacing everything else in the short term anyway. And so this was interesting to me. And it's been reflected in my watch list, granted not today, but by and large, all of the meme tokens have been green and some of them going up double digits, you know, several days in a row.

7:08And we're seeing that here in this dominance chart. So that said, one of the ones that have stood out to me really lately is GigaChad. It, it was a little bit lagging behind some of the other memes that have corrected, but lately it's really come on. It's, you know, had three really, really strong days in a row. It's sort of gotten back up above its resistance level here. And I think that it's sort of due a run. It's chasing SPX, which we'll look at here briefly. SPX already kind of had its run. SPX structurally looks really, really good. It's well back up into its horizontal range that it had broken down to and honestly looks better than most crypto assets these days.

7:48But SPX is one. And then Fartcoin, which I know, Bijan, you're going to look at in a little bit. That's been another one that has done really well, too. So that said, I think Giga is, you know, got the bit between its teeth right now. It's looking the strongest. It's up 10 % on the day, whereas everything else is basically flat. And it's had three really, really strong days in a row. And I think that it could get back up, you know, to this other level here around the 0.38 cent level. So that's one that I'm looking at. And I wanted to kind of briefly flip over to HolderScan here real quick and look at, this is interesting to me too.

8:24So what this is, is HolderCounts with wallets worth$1 ,000 or more of this individual asset. Normally, like when people look at HolderCounts, they'll just see HolderCounts going up, up, up, up. But you can fake this. You can basically get a bot and start populating wallets with a few dollars or a few cents even, and it's going to show the holder count going up. But when you filter this by wallets of$1 ,000 or more, you can't fake that. This is real money in these wallets. And so it's been super interesting to see the likes of SPX, Fartcoin, Giga, you know, really doing really well in terms of holder counts above$1 ,000 increasing, honestly, over the last several days or even a couple of weeks or more.

9:09So I've been impressed by these assets. And this is clearly showing that even with the markets being as sort of uncertain as they are, money is coming into these meme coins. So I wanted to highlight that because I thought that was really interesting. Yeah, I love that you showed that chart because I think that's a way a lot of people look at meme coins, right? Because memes are essentially, you know, you're trading community and culture. And there really isn't a better metric than seeing how many unique wallets are holding a certain meme. And I love that you broke it down of over a thousand because like you said, what bots are just randomly throwing a thousand dollars lectern right into these coins?

9:49So I love that you put that out. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? you can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond.

10:25With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus. Yeah, so you teed me up nicely for the Fartcoin trade. So I wanted to highlight Nick's trade idea on our RV platform. he says to buy fart coin with a entry price at you know 43 cents stop loss at 35 cents and to take profit at a dollar 50 so it looks like nick is looking for a was looking for a 3x on this trade he notes the bullish pattern forming on the chart against seoul all right because fart coin is on with a double bottom and a reverse signal but i like kind of the narrative that he's mentioned here.

11:25He likes the narrative satisfying both normies with its organic humor, right? Normies and fart humor is, you know, kind of people love that stuff and crypto nerds with its AI origin. So I love that he he showed a chart, but also commented on the narrative of it as well. So love that. Nick, it's been really strong. Honestly, I bought a little bit of it over the weekend myself because I just I couldn't ignore the strength of it, too. You know, so So yeah, good call. Yeah, great call, Nick. And guys, if you have any ideas that you want to show off, just submit your trades on the trade ideas tab in our RV website.

12:04And let's see how you do against the rest of the community. All right, Chris, did you have another trade or anything that you wanted to talk about? So another one I wanted to call out was this Anon. Hey, Anon. this has been an interesting one to watch too this i mean this chart doesn't look good it almost looks like a dead cat bounce here you know we got a high a lower high you know possibly rolling over here but if you kind of go over to this this indicator here um this indicator shows a lot of sort of really good recent strength uh in this art in this chart rather uh in this asset that's what i was trying to say so this one actually looks a lot better than most if i go through my entire watch list, we're not seeing these green dots form, this trend change back into green candles here.

12:52And so this was another one that caught my eye that's been showing really solid gains over the last week, outpacing a lot of the other AI tokens and things like that too. So this is one that I've been paying attention to. And I think that it's got a little bit more strength than some of the other ones too. So that's one that I've been looking at. Nice shout there. So Chris, I want to go back to something that you mentioned in the beginning of the show here. You mentioned that you have these levels that you're looking at, and if Bitcoin is rejected off of that target level, you're seeing that alts are going to really go down with that, and you're going to be looking to get out, right?

13:30When you do something like that, do you get out of the coin and go back into the native coin? So let's take Fartcoin, for example. If you saw the reversal and you needed to get out of Fartcoin, are you getting out and just holding that in Solana or do you get out and hold that in USDC? Because, you know, with that Bitcoin being rejected and alts getting wrecked with that, one would think if you get out of the meme coin and then go into another alt, you're also going to get wrecked there as opposed to maybe holding that in like a USDC or Tether or something. What are your thoughts on something like that?

14:02Sure, sure. Good question. So that's really going to be ultimately dictated by the larger market conditions and market sentiment. In this current scenario, I feel like if Bitcoin rolls over, Bitcoin isn't necessarily a safe bet either. And so in better times, rather, I would exit out of some of those alts further out the risk curve and just roll them into Bitcoin. Because I know Bitcoin's at the very least going to be less volatile. It's going to go down less. you know, it's going to be a way to kind of lock in some of those profits, hopefully, that I've made on those other smaller assets. But in this current moment, I feel like if Bitcoin rolls over, you know, we're still dealing with all this economic uncertainty because of the new policies that are coming into play and waiting for all that to unfold.

14:47And so I feel like Bitcoin has a potential. I mean, again, it's not my base case, but it has a potential to roll over one more time also. I don't know to what level, but so in this case, one thing that I'm actually paying attention to right now is on this chart that I have up is actually the PAX gold versus Bitcoin chart. And so what PAX gold is, is basically it's just, it's just a, it's like a stable coin in a sense, but it's pegged to gold instead of pegged to the US dollar. And so it's, it's like an easy way to get exposure to gold. And as we can see over the past, well, really, since the beginning of the year or maybe, you know, into January, gold has outpaced Bitcoin quite a bit, you know, and it looks like it's maybe rolling over a little bit right now.

15:32And that's that's due to the sort of rally that we're seeing in the crypto space and in equities too. But I think that if Bitcoin decides it's going to roll over again, you know, once it bounces off 95, 98 or whatever it may do, I think that this gold Bitcoin chart is going to resume back to the upside. And so I'm looking at this as a potential sort of flight to safety, if you will, a de-risk process, if you will. So I'm going to be paying close attention to this. And if this gold Bitcoin chart resumes back to the upside, I will likely exit a lot of, especially my more risky place, the stuff way out the risk curve, and probably put that into this.

16:11Now, will I do all of it? No. Well, I might not even do 50 % of my portfolio. It might equate to 25 % to 35 % of my portfolio or something like that. And I'll use this as a way to at least capture some upside while the crypto market and the rest of the equities market sort of figure out what they're going to do and hopefully be able to be in a position to gain a little bit and also buy the dip in crypto in the event that we get that. So that's one thing that I'm looking at. Alternatively, sure you could go into stables, you know, or even USD or whatever your fiat currency is, something like that as well.

16:48But I think that I found this to be potentially a good way to, again, realize some gains counter to the rest of the market, you know, while the rest of the market is going down. So something I'm definitely going to be looking at. Awesome. Lovely. So I want to talk about a little bit of a different trade here. I'm going to talk about Azuki. This one is purely just a narrative-based, community-based type of trade, especially with ETH kind of going down as well. I think it's at a pretty good level. It's like just under three ETH. I really like Azuki's community. I think they're super strong, and I think they've been here before where they've had a very high floor price, and they've really just tanked due to some FUD, and they've bounced back twice already from that.

17:38So I like them to do it again. Again, this is, you know, obviously it's a$6 ,000-ish trade, maybe a little bit more than that. So definitely be cautious about that. But if you have some ETH and you were looking to get into the digital assets, JPEG side of it, and get some exposure, I do like Izuki as a strong community. I like the popularity of anime, and that's continuing to grow, especially in Asia, but obviously here in the US as well. Azuki has their own anime-based chain and they are releasing lots of content as well. So definitely like that as a brand play and a very strong ecosystem. So there you go.

18:20So I've been surprised with Azuki. I know it's all-time high. It was quite a bit higher than it is now, but it's definitely got some resilience. It's hanging around, you know, because most of these old previous cycle NFT collections have literally gone to zero, you know, and for the fact that they're still hovering at three ETH, give or take, that's pretty impressive. You know, that to me tells me that there's a good floor there. There's staying power there. There's, you know, there's a bid. And so I like that. Yeah, absolutely. And they bounced back. I think they dropped down almost, you know, right around two ETH, but then they bounced back up again.

18:55And so it looks like they're finding some resistance also there. So definitely an interesting trade if you're looking into NFT side of things. Chris, should we get into some of the questions that we've gotten? All right, let's do it. So this comes from Luis on the platform. Luis wants to know, what do you think about trading this small rebound rally versus adding dry powder? So I know you touched on that in the beginning, but he has an interesting question about adding dry powder into that. So what are your thoughts on that? Well, I mean, kind of like I said, just know that we are, it's still, I guess, murky.

19:38It's still a gray area in terms of how much longer this relief rally has and if it's ultimately going to break out and resume into the larger bull trend. And so I guess if you want to add dry powder, it's not a bad time. You're a little bit late. I feel like, you know, the lows were potentially in a couple of weeks ago, but it's still very much at the lows and we're still sort of struggling to get through some of these resistance levels. So, yeah, you haven't totally missed it, but know that if you do add some dry powder now, you know, again, there's a chance that we could get rejected and roll back over in another couple of weeks from now.

20:14Also, we might not. And again, we don't know. We just need to see the market prove itself. And we need to see more, again, clarity, I think, on the tariff situation. I think after April, is it April 6th or April 2nd? I don't remember the date that they go live. April 2nd. April 2nd. Okay, yeah. So April 2nd, I think, will be a bit of a telling day. I don't know that we'll see a lot of knee-jerk reaction necessarily on that day, but I think it'll be telling in terms of what the larger markets think about how these policies are coming into effect. And we're still waiting to see in terms of like the scope of these tariffs.

20:49I know some of them are going to be more broad for some countries and for other countries they're going to be much more narrowed than maybe we initially thought. And I think April 2nd will actually learn the real detail of what exactly is what and for what country. And I think that's ultimately going to be what the market bases their reaction on. And so until that point, it's just kind of a no man's land. So I think if you want to deploy some dry powder, maybe don't go all in just yet, maybe kind of DCA in over the course of the next couple of weeks, maybe hold on to a little bit of it, you know, whereas if you're trading, I would say, yeah, open along at this point and be ready to look for, you know, exiting out within a week or two.

21:28So there's a different sort of approach to it, a different logic there. But yeah, there's nothing wrong with having dry powder. I think if you're in that position, that's always a good thing. But just know that, you know, you might spend it all now. And in a month from now, we might be at even lower levels than we are today. So we'll have to wait until April 2nd to sort of see how that plays out. Yeah, I love that you said that. I'm always of the idea that you should always keep some type of dry powder on the side in USDC. so you can take advantage of some of these drops. Add to your positions that you feel strongly about, but always save some to take advantage of dips because you're always going to feel like you wish you had more, so that would be the time to have more and deploy it.

22:12So let's take this last question here from Robert on the RV platform. I like this question because it's also, even though he asked us about two specific coins, I think this really kind of speaks to the larger narrative at play with memes. So Robert wants to know, are you going to hold on to SPX and GIGA for the duration, whatever that may be, or exit at a reasonable profit and walk away? So I think this also speaks, like I was saying, the larger idea of meme coins. Like, do you trade these? Are you holding on to these for a lotto ticket? Because again, you shouldn't be putting in more than you are afraid to lose with memes.

22:50So what are your thoughts on that question, Chris? Well, the answer is yes. Yes, I'm going to continue to hold them as long as they continue to hold up structurally. And I think that looking at this SPX chart here is a really good example of that. We've regained its horizontal structure. And, you know, structurally, it looks better than a lot of... Honestly, it looks better than Solana and Sui do right now in terms of their structure. So, I mean, until the scoreboard sort of tells me otherwise, I see no reason to get rid of this. Now, of course, sometime I at some point I will sell it. And this applies to Giga too.

23:29So at some point I will sell them. I have I'm under no illusion that they're going to go up forever. I fully expect them to, you know, drop 95 percent at the end of this bull market and, you know, disappear. But I do think that as long as people are continuing to buy it, I'm going to continue to stay in it. And I know that can change on a dime. But again, structurally, they have held up better than most. And so I think that that's that's worthwhile. while. I think that, again, they've held up better than even a lot of the large cap alt apps. So that doesn't apply to every meme out there, but individually, SPX, Giga, and even Fartcoin, I think is sort of in that conversation too.

24:09I think that the market has sort of narrowed those down as sort of the chosen ones, if you will, for this cycle, sort of like last cycle, it was maybe Doge and Shiba and a few others. I think that SPX and Giga and Fartcoin are sort of the ones. Now we'll see. Obviously, you know, anything can happen. Murad could decide to dump all of his position and it'll drop immediately. And, you know, I know that there's going to be a point when it drops. Again, I'm not saying there won't be, but I do think that it still has a good chunk of time to go. I still think it's early. I still think there's at the very least one more big leg up.

24:49Potentially, you know, I think a 10X leg is within reason. and once it gets to that point, I will reevaluate and likely I'm sure I will take some profit at that point if I get a 10X, especially out of SPX. But I'll probably keep a moon bag in there too at that point because I still think even if it does do one more leg up, really I still think there's two final legs to go before the end of the year, before the end of the bull run. So we'll see. But yes, I will be taking profit at some point and yes, in the meantime, I will be staying in them. Yeah, absolutely. Thank you for the question, Robert.

25:24I know I said last question on Robert's question, but this will be the last question. We had a question coming in from Stuart on YouTube. considering the I mean, I know we touched on this a little bit, but I do want to highlight this question because I think a lot of people are feeling feeling this right now. So considering the unpredictability of the U.S. administration, do you think rolling into BTC now might need to be considered or should we just hold tight and don't fuck this up?

25:57I think that we have I would like to wait and see how the next couple of weeks play out and see if we get that rejection at around the 95 to 98 level. Or if there's a chance we don't even get that far to begin with, you know, we might get rejected at 93 or 91 even, you know, we're, we're only at 86 now. So that said, I do think that we, you know, my gut tells me, I feel like we have at least a couple more weeks of upside. Granted, again, the tariff information on April 2nd may really dictate how this plays out. If it's good news on April 2nd, then we might get a strong surge up and into the higher 90 range or even up into the 100 ,000 range.