Trading the Markets: Ep. 3 | Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki

0:00Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

0:28happy wednesday everyone and welcome back to another episode of trading the markets i'm bijan malecki and i'm joined by rv crypto contributor chris bullock chris how you doing on this hump day doing great doing great it's been a busy day i've been staring at the charts since I woke up trying to get a sense of what the market was doing with Liberation Day before us here. So it's been tricky, though. They were down when I woke up. Now everything is in the green across the board, stocks, crypto, everything pretty much. So it's interesting. It's interesting times right now. Yeah, definitely interesting times.

1:06A reminder that Liberation Day announcement will be today after the markets close. Why they're doing that, we'll find out. Right. Pretty much everything we say today could be completely invalidated in a few hours from now. You literally read my mind. I was literally just saying that. So with that, this show is not financial advice. It's meant to give you some ideas or some crumbs that you can then further research on your own. Chris and I just find trades that we're interested in or looking more into so that you can, you know, check it out for yourself. And as always in crypto, do your own research.

1:50And a reminder to everyone as well, Jamie Kutz's crypto dashboard is live. It's available for all pro crypto members. And with that, actually, Chris has some cool stuff to show you on that dashboard. and I believe it helped him with some of his trade ideas. Is that right, Chris? Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030.

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3:39Yeah, absolutely. So in fact, yes, I was looking at the dashboard earlier today in an effort to find outperforming assets, things that were doing well, you know, potential trade ideas. And so I figured it'd be a good opportunity to actually show this dashboard because it's been there on the site for a minute now and, you know, show how I use it and what I did to identify these assets because it's really handy. It's at our disposal. And I don't hear it talked about a ton. And I think it should be talked about more because it's got some cool stuff in it. So I wanted to talk about the first thing right here, these top two rows.

4:14We have the total, or I'm sorry, top 200 market cap by, or rather the top 200 by market cap weight, and then the top 200 equally weighted. Now, what does this mean? So basically, it's kind of just how it sounds. The top 200 market cap weighted essentially measures everything by their market caps. So like if, you know, the stuff with the higher market cap, your Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB, et cetera, those are going to have an outsized influence on the outcome of sort of these percentages. Whereas if you look at this top 200 equally weighted, that essentially gives every asset within the top 200 sort of equal voting power within this ranking.

4:55And so So what you can glean from this or how you can use this is if the top 200 by market cap weight is outperforming the top 200 by equal weight, that tells you that basically the bigger market cap assets, your Bitcoin, Solanas, etc. Those are basically kind of leading the pack. Those are the ones that are driving the market right now, and they're outperforming everything else. Whereas once we start to see the equal weight top 200 start to outperform, that's telling us that the smaller market cap assets within the top 200 are essentially outperforming and doing better. So what we can do is look at this and go, okay, well, right now, equal weight is pretty much red across the board.

5:38So this tells us it's definitely not alt season right now. But, you know, once this turns green, once we start to see the top 200 equal weight turn green, then we know that it's basically alt season is on, you know, alts are outperforming the higher market cap assets. And we can see it on a, you know, on a daily, a seven day, 30 day, 90 day, six month and yearly sort of basis. And so this is kind of a cool way to know if alts are outperforming on any of these time intervals. And so I like it because it's just a really super handy way. You can use it to start to see a trend develop a little bit.

6:17Once you start to see it turn green on the daily here and outperform the market cap weight and 7-day, 30-day and so on. Right now, it's clearly not. But I do think that this is a cool thing to check on the regular to just get a good sense of how the alt market is doing. It's just one more way to look at how the alt market is doing. Now, with that, another thing down here, we can look. And so basically, he's got crypto broken down into all of its major sectors. You know, DeFi, smart contract platforms are kind of layer ones, layer twos, that kind of thing. Infrastructure plays, you know, applications or protocols, things like that.

6:57So I started by looking, OK, well, what seems to have been doing better than most? And I noticed digital currency here. It's up on the day. It's kind of been down less than most over the last seven days, down less than most over the last 30 days. You know, six months, it's beating everything else. So I was like, OK, well, let's drill down into here. And then we have these sectors. We've got privacy tokens, stable. Oops, hold on.

7:25Privacy tokens, stable coins, meme coins, et cetera. And so you can kind of drill down into these different sectors. and we know general is doing well because it holds things like bitcoin xrp you know and the like and we know that those assets have been doing well so clearly that's going to be leading the pack but this other one caught my eye that i thought was pretty interesting because it's pretty much green across the board here and so i wanted to dig in a little bit here now granted there's only two assets in this sector the the x you know monero and zcash basically um but this is something that I think flies under the radar for a lot of people.

7:59You know, we don't often hear these assets talked about. And I thought it was interesting, you know, to come down here and look and realize, oh, you know, on an annual basis, you know, Monero is up 83%, six months, it's well outpacing everything else, even on a 90 day basis, when the market has pretty much tanked since the beginning of the year, it's up 14%. So that caught my eye. I'm like, well, well, this is interesting, you know, so So from here, I went over and I was like, well, let's look at the chart. Let's kind of see what Monero is doing. And so if you look at it on its USD pair, it's been flat basically for the majority of this four-year cycle going back to January 2023.

8:39But since the middle of last year, it's been on a decent upswing. Mind you, these are weekly candles. So that's why you're not seeing a lot of chart history here. But so since basically April of last year, it's sort of bucked the trend for the rest of the market. And then if we look at it on its Bitcoin pair, which is here, it's, you know, granted, it went down for quite a bit of 2023 because Bitcoin went up. And so it lost ground against Bitcoin, but it's more or less held sideways. And so I think what this tells me is maybe this isn't necessarily the best long term play against Bitcoin, but we can see that it has shown stretches where it will go for, you know, three, four or five months straight where it gains quite a bit of ground against Bitcoin.

9:28And right now it's in the midst of one of those. And it's one of a very small handful of assets, maybe 10 or 12 that have like, you know, that are in an uptrend currently against Bitcoin that have a green megatrend against Bitcoin that are, you know, above its bull market support band against Bitcoin. So this was interesting to me and this caught my eye. And I feel like what we're seeing here is it's probably acting as just a bit of a hedge against Bitcoin. It's almost like a de-risking into gold or de-risking into a stable coin. You can almost sort of de-risk into a privacy coin to some degree too.

10:02And, you know, continue to get a little bit of upside and, you know, outpace Bitcoin in that period too. So I just wanted to kind of put this on everyone's radar. It wasn't on my radar at all, but I do think it's interesting. And Zcash has done well, too. It's performed similarly against Bitcoin in that time. Not quite as well, but it's right in there. And again, it's one of just a small handful of assets outside of centralized exchange tokens are the only other asset class really that are outpacing Bitcoin in the last, well, since the beginning of the year. And so I think that these are ones that we can sort of, again, have on our radar four times like these when the markets are otherwise in an ugly situation.

10:44Privacy coins tend to actually do pretty well. And so, yeah, so I wanted to share that. Yeah, lovely, lovely shout out there. I can't imagine a lot of us were thinking about that. Curiosity, though, for everyone. If you hold either Zcash or Monero, put that in the comments. curious to see how many of our audience was aware of this trade beforehand. Obviously, we know about them, right? But definitely not something on the radar and great use of Jamie, the pro crypto dashboard to find something like that. So I know, Chris, I know you said it was an altcoin season yet, and you had the proof right there staring us in the face with the crypto dashboard.

11:23But I'm going to throw all of that out the window because I'm going, well, not necessarily, But I do want to highlight for my trade this week, Walrus. So Walrus is obviously a SUI storage layer on SUI, right? And so this trade was input by Etienne on our trade ideas on our platform. So he has an entry price of about$0.55, stop loss at$0.25. and he is looking for basically like a 20x here as a take profit at$10. I wanted to talk about this trade because, listen, I love SWE as much as anyone else, right? I have a lot of SWE, have deep as well. But I'm kind of speaking from this trade as an experience of being in the market.

12:17If you are not in on the airdrops, I don't feel like you should chase the brand new coin because generally that's how you're going to get wrecked. Obviously, if you're in on the airdrop, you got it early. You're playing with house money essentially when the token drops. But if you're not in, I think when you start chasing that coin right when it drops, I think you run into a very risky situation there where it could just be overextended and then just dump on you. Kind of similar to those Coinbase listings or those big exchange listings that maybe meme coins or other coins might get. I feel like this is kind of similar to that.

12:55So while I'm going to be having a very close eye on Walrus, I wanted to mention that. So keep an eye on it and maybe wait. It hasn't even been out for like a week. It hasn't even been out for a week yet. So maybe wait and get a little more info on that before really diving in on a nice entry. But regardless, love Etienne's initiative on it. He's not waiting around. He's just jumping right in. So yeah, I wanted to highlight that one. So yeah, back over to you, Chris, what you got next for us? Well, real quick on that. So it's interesting. You're right. You end up being exit liquidity on a lot of these if you buy in late, unless you can get in like on a fair launch token, which almost always is going to launch on a DEX in that scenario.

13:41But if you can get in on a fair launch and buy at the very beginning, then you're less subject to being exit liquidity. But I think one comparison that stood out that I want to pull up a chart real quick that you made me think of is Celestia. And so let's look at that real quick. So Celestia was interesting because it did something that I fear may happen to Walrus, but it ran up for quite some time. I mean, we know Walrus is what it's, it's, it's a week old, I think, or something like that. Celestia actually went for, um, 14 weeks before it ultimately peaked out. And in that span, it went up quite a bit.

14:21I mean, it was, uh, what do we got here? Let's just start from here. You know, it went up well, a little over nine X. So you could, I don't know, again, this isn't an apples to apples necessarily. this is just an example of a sort of typical price pattern that I see play out with a lot of these launches like we're talking about. And I do think that Walrus kind of fits into this category, but there is potentially a scenario where you could get some decent price action for, you know, give or take whatever, 14 weeks. I mean, this is again, an example where you could, you know, run up for quite a bit before ultimately it peaks out and then just ultimately starts to bleed like this.

14:57So not necessarily a bad play, but I think use this as an example of sort of what could happen and that, you know, don't think that just because it runs up eight or 10 X right out of the gate in the first, you know, 10, 12, 15 weeks that it's going to keep doing that forever as we can see. And this Celestia isn't the only example where this has happened, but I did want to point that out as maybe look at Walrus potentially as a shorter term play where you're looking for something like this and then be prepared for if it does roll over to, you know, don't get married to this asset and cut bait and don't think, oh, it's a beta play.

15:31If SWE goes up, you know, 10X from here, then Walrus is going to go up 100X from here. Like, don't get stuck on that narrative. Just, you know, look at it for what it is, look at the technicals. And if the technicals say it's rolling over, then be prepared to get out of the trade, you know, and just take your profits and move on. So, yeah, I wanted to share that. Absolutely well said. Nice chart there too. and pointing that out because ultimately, I would be a lot more bullish on entering Walrus right now if SWE wasn't caught up in the whole altcoin mess and I saw a little more strength in SWE right now.

16:06I would be definitely a lot more bullish on that. But yeah, I love that chart there. Yeah, so then the next one I had was another one. I was kind of looking at the other handful of assets that were outpacing Bitcoin over the last little bit. And BNX, which has recently renamed or rebranded to form, but I'm going to pull up the BNX chart because it's just got more price history. It's the same asset. But we can see that upon the rebranding, it went from being like a, I think it was like a perpdex, binary X, to more of like a gaming trading platform. I'm a little fuzzy on what exactly it is, obviously.

16:49So don't shoot me. But like ever since the rebrand, clearly the audience has responded well. The market has responded well. It likes what it's seeing here. So this is one that caught my eye that has done well coming out of, you know, the dip basically a lot better than most. And so I thought it was interesting too. I don't know how much gas it has left in the tank. It is sort of back up at all time highs. But again, the market has responded well. So it caught my eye. I think it's worth maybe if you're into gaming, if you're into the gaming sector, to just do a little more research on here, dig a little bit deeper and see if this is something that resonates with you.

17:27But it's one of, again, the handful outside of exchange tokens and privacy tokens that are outpacing Bitcoin in this moment. Yeah, so the next one I want to talk about is it's not a crypto trade. So this one's a little more less degen, if you will. Want to shout out Ian Dunn's trade of Buy Take Two, which is basically a play on GTA 6 release. So for anybody that's in gaming or anything like that, you know how anticipated this release has been for like a decade now. So Take Two owns Rockstar, which is the company that owns Grand which is the highest grossing video game franchise of all time. And I really like this trade because again, GTA 6 is the most hyped video game release probably ever.

18:22So Ian has an entry price of 180, a stop loss at 80, and he's looking for about an 8x on this trade, take profit at 1 ,000. But this is a longer term trade here. Ian, I just want to kind of highlight some of the notes that he made from a chart that he posted as well. After a decade of ranging, GTA, the Take-Two stock price saw an 8x increase in share price within four years. I could see this repeat again after being in range for the past eight years. So I thought it was a very interesting trade from a very anticipated gaming launch. We don't really, I don't know exactly when it's launching, but I do anticipate that price running up a little bit as we approach that launch date.

19:09And then hopefully, you know, shooting up as the game comes out and starts receiving, you know, critically acclaimed reviews. Interesting. It's a good looking chart. I'll give it that. That's, yeah. Wow. Yeah, well So, Chris, I think we wanted to, so obviously we have the tariff announcements coming today at market close, but I think we wanted to check out what Bitcoin was doing on the technical side of things and see what we can glean from that. There's a couple interesting things here. First, we've had this trend line. We've been in this wedge pattern now, well, since the beginning of the year, basically.

19:49And we did poke above it a couple of times. We had a couple of wicks here above it. We had a wick here above it. But right now we're, you know, for the first time in a, well, in a hot minute, we're actually poking back above this trend line and trying to break out. And so this would be a strong signal. I feel like if we can sort of break this trend and break out to the upside, obviously that's what we're looking for. I do like the fact too, that we've, you know, we came down and we set this low, we set a high and we set basically a higher low here. We didn't come all the way back down to the bottom of this line, the bottom of this wedge, which I was really glad to see.

20:25And now we're breaking back up again. So I would say this higher low is confirmed at this point with two pretty strong candles to the upside breaking out. So I like to see the momentum there. But I wanted to caution it with, let me switch this real quick, caution it with, we've got a little bit more work to do on the weekly timeframe that we need to basically be cognizant of.

20:52so i've got this chart's all drawn up but basically you can see here same same chart with a lot more stuff going on but we've basically come back up to a resistance level at this point and it's the same resistance level that we got rejected at last week and so we really need to clear that it's like yes it looks good we've sort of broken the trend and that's that's great but we need to clear this resistance level here we need to break above this and honestly we need to get back up into this previous box and above the bull market support band here, which is really going to be the key. So until we get to that point, it's like, yeah, well, well, this is good.

21:27Well, this is definitely a step in the right direction. We're still just really kind of in, in no man's land. We're at resistance still. And so one thing that I'm very, very cognizant of is I feel like in the moment, the path of least resistance is to the upside. I do, I do foresee us getting back up to this level, but I'm very, very conscious and very wary of the idea that we can finally break up into here and ultimately get rejected back at 96, 97 and roll back over to the downside again and, you know, extend further into the summer. Because I think the big thing we're seeing is right now, this is still more of a technical bounce, a reflexive rally, you know, and not so much a fundamental change in the economics that caused this downturn to begin with.

22:15Yes, we'll have the outcome of the tariffs today, later today, and that could change things dramatically. But ultimately, even if the tariffs do, you know, once that, well, they will come into effect. We know that. But even if they start, you know, doing whatever they're going to do, I think the ultimate sort of outcome that will come from these tariffs has has yet to really cement itself, has yet to play out, has yet to sort of impact the economy directly. Right now, this is all sort of news driven and not sort of actual mechanics of the policies being in place. And so once the policies come into effect later today, it's still going to take time for those mechanics to then play out.

22:55And so that's why I'm wary of the idea of we might get this rally, even a news based rally, even if the tariffs are, you know, quote, good news. we might get a rally up into this area here and ultimately still kind of run out of steam and have to wait another month or two or three for the, you know, everything to actually work its way through the system in terms of the changes that take effect today. So that's kind of the big thing that's, you know, in the forefront of my thinking and one of the things I'm wary about. So don't think we're out of the woods necessarily, even if we get a sharp rally up to, you know, the mid to high nineties, even, uh, I think we really, what's going to really prove it is if we break out and start setting higher highs and really break out at the top of this range, then we'll know that like things are probably going okay.

23:44But I think that there's, you know, it's maybe not even a 50, 50 chance that, that, that happens. My base case really is that we do roll over, uh, and I hope I'm wrong, but, but we'll see. So, so yeah, I, I wanted to share that. I think that that's an important perspective. Uh, you know, don't get too excited. Don't get over your skis and think that we're going to the moon if somehow, you know, we're up in the mid nineties by next week, because that's not necessarily the case right now. Yeah. I think, I don't think many people know what's going to happen today, but I think we can be sure there's going to be volatility either way.

24:18Absolutely. None of this sideways chop we've been seeing, I think we're going to go up or we're going to go down today. So if we go down, I hope you guys have some dry powder and you're convicted in some of your plays so you can take advantage. if we go up. I hope we can have a little bit of a celebration for once, but as Chris cautioned, don't get too excited because we're not out of the woods yet. So we don't have any questions. We didn't get any live questions that came in today. So just a reminder, we do take live questions from you guys on either YouTube or on platform or on Twitter. So if you ever have any questions or you ever have a chart that you want Chris to look at live on air, we can absolutely do that.

24:59So just let us know. So and that will do it for today's edition. You know, I'll let everyone, you know, just see what the market does today. And just, you know, just stay even keeled, guys. If you like this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.

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