Trading the Markets: June 4, 2025

0:00Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

0:25Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of Trading the Markets. I'm Bijan Malecki, and of course, I'm joined by Chris Bullock, aka BlastoPlast. I want to thank Nico for stepping in last week and hosting. We didn't miss a beat. I was moving, and I'm back. I'm living in my parents' house right now, staying true to the culture of that degen trading in their parents' basement with meme coins. So that's me. That's my life right now. Hey, we're in the final stretch here in the banana zone, hopefully, right? So we got to get that going. I just want to call your attention to a new Jamie Coots video that just dropped, Cycle Modeling and Risk Framework.

1:07Basically, those videos act like a supplement to his May reports. So I think it's also a great resource to use in tandem with our weekly trading shows. So if you're an RV Pro member, go and check that out. Chris has his crypto portfolio update dropping next week as well. But you can also check out Joe Bland's macro portfolio coming this week. So set your reminders for that. You'll need to be an RV Connect member to get access. So if you're not already, make sure you upgrade so you can get access to that. Because with RV Connect, you don't just get Chris's amazing and detailed reports in our weekly trading show.

1:44You'll also get those detailed macro reports and videos from Joe Bland. You get full access to trade ideas and you get access to the Crypto Academy. I mean, I know Chris has a few sessions in there. And, you know, there's a famous saying, you know, about the student becoming the teacher. So you can learn from Chris. Maybe you can trade better than him and TA better than him. We'll see how that goes. Also, just want to have a quick reminder as well. We discuss this all day, every day in our Discord. So if you're not a member, you can always join, stress test your ideas, chat with your fellow members.

2:18And just, you know, join the vibes in Discord. And if you have any questions for us this week, you can always drop them in the chats here on X or on the platform. And we'll get to as many as we can. And lastly, we have another RV meetup coming to you guys in London again on June 18th. So if you're in the area or you need a reason to be in the UK, we hope to see you there. You can register at realvision.com slash meetups. Again, that's realvision.com slash meetups. so you can register for our event and check out our events calendar. Anyway, let's get into the week. Chris, how are you doing? What's on your mind today?

2:58Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. I am doing great. I wanted to actually piggyback on something you just said about the meetups. It's not quite, I don't know if it's officially on the schedule yet, and maybe I shouldn't be announcing it, but there's going to be one in Vancouver in August in around the 15th or 16th, which I am going to, which myself and Blasto's girlfriend will be attending in Vancouver.

3:47So I hope to see anybody that wants to go to that. That's going to be a lot of fun. It will also be my 50th birthday on the 15th that weekend. So should be a good time. All right. A birthday party slash meetup for BlastoPlace. I love it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm looking forward to it. I can't wait. We got our tickets already this weekend. And so I'm stoked for that. I haven't been to Vancouver either. So I'm looking forward to it. I wanted to also quickly touch on the reports that you mentioned. Jamie's last two reports, I mean, all of his reports are good, but his last two were just fire. Like they were so good with this new risk modeling profile that he's come up with and just so in depth.

4:25And the stuff that he does with the data is just, I mean, again, it's above and beyond anything that I've seen from anybody in this space. And we're so grateful to have him. And I really liked Joe's report too. I'm not deep in the weeds with TradFi. And I thought his report was outstanding. And it really like, as soon as I read this, I was like, I can see myself, you know, leveraging this information, you know, maybe later in the cycle or next year or something when I want to kind of branch out of crypto a bit. His reports are going to be super, super helpful in that scenario. And I look forward to seeing those evolve.

4:58I thought that that was a really welcome addition to the all of the content that we have. We didn't really have anything that what he's bringing to the table and it was unique and And, you know, props to props to Joe for that. So it was good stuff. And I'd be remiss if I didn't say that that also was born from community feedback. So like we listen to what a lot of you say, and that's what a lot of you wanted. You love that crypto aspect of what we're providing. But I think we were lacking a little bit more on a macro side of things. And that's what Joe Bland brings to the table. So keep your recommendations and feedback coming.

5:32We'd love to hear it. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, let's let's get on to Bitcoin here. Let's or let's start with Bitcoin rather. So we've been you know, we've been in a correction, as we know, for what, a little over a week now. And the question is, is the bottom in? You know, that's kind of what we're all waiting for is the bottom in. Do we have another leg down? Are we going to reverse? Have we corrected enough? You know, and so let's kind of look at some charts here and sort of see what I see right now. what I'm looking at is the first question, has Bitcoin corrected enough? If I'm not mistaken, it's down, it ultimately went down about eight and a half percent, give or take.

6:13So yes, there's been a couple other corrections in this current four-year cycle that we're in that were actually slightly shallow, or maybe one was around 9%, one was around 8%. So it wouldn't be unprecedented for this to have been a big enough correction. You could ask yourself, has sentiment corrected enough? Like usually when you, you know, when we come into these corrections that we have right now, you want to see sentiment kind of get flushed out because what happens is we get these big, you know, overexcited, overexuberant rallies where, you know, like the fear and greed index goes to like 70 plus, you know, and we're like, ah, this is great, but we can't sustain a 70 plus fear and greed.

6:54You know, it just, it doesn't work that way. And so usually when you get these corrections, you want to see sentiment get reset back down into like, say, the 50s or 40s even and kind of freak everybody out and kind of get reset so that you have enough sort of fuel to sustain another big rally. And we didn't quite get that. We've got a sentiment flush. I want to say it's back down in like the 60s. So it's still a little bit on the greed side of things. It's not quite, you know, neutral even. And so that's never awesome. But also, you know, it is what it is. And if this is to be the next big phase of the banana zone, then it'll be OK.

7:34It's fine. Now, so that leads us to is the bottom in? Well, there's a couple of good things that I'm seeing here. And I'm looking at this trading alpha indicator, which I use a lot and is great. and it's showing us that it has basically managed to hold this support level through this entire correction. I mean, it did wick down briefly and came right back up and it's held it. And now we've got the shaded area here and the shaded area tells us that there's, that the Bollinger bands are starting to kind of come together or squeeze. And this is what we refer to as a volatility squeeze, meaning there hasn't been a lot of price action, you know, since the sideways structure started.

8:11And so now it's starting to get squeezed. And typically when you get a volatility squeeze, you have a breakout. Like if you look at these other couple last, like we had one here, a volatility squeeze, and now this broke out to the downside. We had another one here. This one broke out to the upside. This volatility squeeze doesn't tell you which way price is going to break out. It just tells you that typically when you have a period of low volatility, you often get a period of high volatility breaking out from it is effectively what it's saying. so uh this could go either way but i feel like the longer it goes sideways like this and the longer it holds this support level um you know the odds increase that the breakout will be to the upside and so that's kind of what i'm looking at here and then if we go over to this other indicator this other chart rather same same thing we're still looking at bitcoin here but just with moving averages um right now we're basically again in the same support cluster that we've been holding and we're really just waiting for Bitcoin, I think, to get back above these two moving average, this 10 and 20 day moving average.

9:15And as soon as they do that, that's going to tell us that, yes, in fact, the bottom is in. Now, right now we're a bit in kind of no man's land. We're sort of between support and resistance in terms of these moving averages and this horizontal support level. So we're really just waiting for the market to kind of show its hand and tell us which way things are going and we can't really do anything until we get that signal. Now, if we don't get the signal to the upside, what does that look to the downside? What does that look like? So the next couple of levels I'm looking at are, well, the next big sort of horizontal support level is this previous structure we had down here in like the mid nineties, you know, where it topped out around 96 and it got down as low as 93, 93.5.

9:56I don't think we're going to get all the way down to here. To me, that's a bit of a long shot, but it's still sort of within reason. And even if it did happen, it wouldn't necessarily like break the longer term structure or anything like that. Like it really would be fine. Nobody's going to want to see that, obviously, but it would absolutely serve to flush out sentiment, you know, for sure. This would flush sentiment back into the 30s and 40s. And that would be a nice, healthy reset, honestly. But if it doesn't get back to this, the next level I'm looking at is kind of this even 100 ,000 level, which is like the even sort of nice psychological round number level.

10:30Humans are funny like that. They like to buy at round numbers. And so, you know, you could very well see a bounce just at 100K if it does get down to this low, just because again, that's humans for you. So that's the number I'm kind of looking at. If we break this existing structure, first, I'll look at 100 ,000. If we do lose it, which we could, then the next structure that I'm looking at is around 96. And if we kind of zoom out, you can see what I'm saying by when I say it wouldn't actually break anything. Because just looking at the longer term, like the longer term, you know, four year cycle trend that we've been on starting from, you know, back in 2023, January 23, we're still quite a ways above this existing sort of long term trend line that we've been holding.

11:12And we did, you know, the April lows when we broke out from that was the previous touch we had to this trend line. And meanwhile, we've got the 20 week moving average, which is effectively this bull market support band running down through here. And we're still quite a ways above that. So if you look at this, We're way above the trend line. We're way above the bull market support band. So even a correction down to 95 wouldn't even get us back anywhere near this trend line. So that's what I mean when I say everything would be fine structurally if we were to come down that low. And so I'm really not worried about that if it did happen, even though I don't necessarily think it will, or maybe it's not my base case, you could say.

11:51So that's where we're at with Bitcoin. Overall, I think things are looking good. I do think that there's a, you know, 50-50 chance, even better maybe, that the bottom actually is in. And we do get, you know, start a new, basically a 60-day cycle rally out of here sometime this week. But in the meantime, we're just kind of stuck and we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo.

12:26See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets.

12:59Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

13:13Yeah, I mean, you touched on this on Monday as well. Like, you know, if we break down under 100, we're okay, guys. Like, you know, that mid 90s is still nice support. It's going to flush flush us out. And I think that would just provide great buying opportunities. I know crypto Twitter is going to go crazy if we do go below 100, but that is your guys's opportunity. So just keep that in mind. It's the world's not falling just yet there. Chris, you had an interesting chart as well showing altcoins because, you know, we we think we've always we're always talking about this alt season coming and that just taking us to the moon and seeing all these exponential gains.

13:48But the altcoin chart performance that you have is really just really kind of puts things into perspective about where we currently are right now. You want to kind of explain what you're seeing on that chart? Yeah. So this is on CoinMarketCap. They have like an altcoin index or an altseason index. And this basically shows the number of tokens that are outperforming Bitcoin on like a rolling 90-day basis. And right now in this moment, there's only 22 altcoins that have done so. And it's funny, if you look at these, there's a lot of really common names that you hear. You hear Fartcoin a lot. You hear SPX.

14:27You hear Hype. You hear Virtual. They're all right up at the top here. A few others that kind of, you know, Aave has been talked about. Tao gets talked about a fair bit. Even ETH actually, surprisingly, has outpaced Bitcoin over the last 90 days, which you haven't been able to say too many times in the last few years. So that was nice to see. But the thing with this list, one, it very much speaks to the fact that Bitcoin remains supremely dominant. Because like how many, I think this is top 100. Okay, so this is just out of the top 100. Now, we know there's literally thousands of other crypto assets.

15:00You can't really factor those in so much because they have such tiny market caps that they can swing wildly. And, you know, on any given moment, any one of them could outpace Bitcoin on a short term. But that doesn't mean they're necessarily good investments. So you kind of want to stick to like the top 100. And even so, you know, less than a quarter of them are outpacing Bitcoin. And even within that, I think there's some nuance that I want to speak to, because like you have to keep in mind. Well, like ETH is a perfect example. Yes, ETH has outpaced Bitcoin over the last 90 days. And so if you looked at that just in black and white terms, you would think, oh, well, ETH is probably a good investment.

15:36Like maybe I need to be an ETH right now. But if you kind of dig a little bit deeper, you know, and you go you go to this chart here, you'll see that ETH, in fact, has been in a long, long term downtrend against Bitcoin for the last four years. So, yes, it's outpaced it in the last 90 days. But there's a fair number of those assets on that list I just showed where maybe this is kind of what you're seeing. It's in a very long-term downtrend, but maybe over the last 90 days, it had a big spike and kind of outperformed it in a shorter term. Now, that's not all of them, but you have to dig into the chart, actually, and kind of double-check those numbers and make sure that one of those assets that you might be looking to buy isn't just in a long-term downtrend with a more short-term spike.

16:19So it's good to look at this as a reference because it does give you a good perspective on just, again, how dominant Bitcoin is. And there are some here that are absolutely worth holding that have been outpacing Bitcoin on a much longer term. But, you know, the point is Bitcoin is good. Like there's nothing wrong with holding Bitcoin, you know, and Bitcoin is probably going to do better than most. You know what's not in this list, in this top 20 here, is the likes of Solana or SWE, you know, or a lot of other big, large assets that many of us talk about that many of us are holding for the long term.

16:56They're not here. So, you know, I think that's something that's worth paying attention to. So, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that's definitely an interesting chart to see because, you know, we just get caught up so much in these alts. I think, and the theme that kind of occurred on our Monday show too, is I think, listen, if you want to have a relatively stress-free, I put that in quotes because, you know, we're in crypto, right? Just buy Bitcoin, right? And just set it and forget it. And you won't have to worry about monitoring it every day, worrying about these crazy swings because in the long run, you know you're going to be up, right?

17:34Now, if you want to dive into the weeds and really focus on outperforming Bitcoin, well, then that's where you want to start diving into these meme coins or, I mean, alt coins. But I also think it's important to know is it needs to outperform Bitcoin significantly, I think, for it to be worth the stress and the risk of holding that alt. Because for something like, you know, five to 10 percent outperformance of Bitcoin, yeah, you're outperforming Bitcoin. But is it worth all the hassle and time that you're putting into it just to get such a minimal gain where you could have just held the larger asset and just enjoyed your life and touch some grass?

18:09So I think that's something to consider when you're thinking about your portfolio. You know, it's funny. I actually touched on that. I posted a big post in the discord just a little bit ago before the show. And and it was kind of speaking to just that. Like you have to kind of remember now, obviously this is anecdotal, but like probably nine out of 10 people that that try to outpace Bitcoin end up doing worse than if they just tell Bitcoin. And I know a lot of people come into crypto thinking, oh, yeah, OK, there's Bitcoin and it's cool, but it's only going to what if it's probably only going to do what a two or three X or four X, you know, from here.

18:43That's boring. That's stupid. I don't want that. I want the big I want the gains. I want the 10 X. Well, it's fine to want the 10X. You can want the 10X all you want. But in order to get that 10X, you actually have to work for it. You have to do better than Bitcoin. And that's far easier said than done. It's, you know, you can want the 10X all day long, but you have to execute, you know, and it's you have to go way out the risk curve. And it's risky out there. I mean, Bitcoin itself, like you said, is already very risky. And so you have to be in a position to be able to be looking at charts. You have to be very tactful.

19:18You have to you have to know what you're looking for. You know, from a from an analytics perspective, you have to have the time to be able to sit in front of these charts and stare at them and know what's going on and be in a position to actually click the buy and sell button in the right times and places. And if you know, if that's not your thing, if you don't have I mean, maybe you have the want, but you need the actual time. Like if you've got a full-time day job and you only look at charts maybe once a day for 10 minutes, you're probably not positioning yourself to outpace Bitcoin, no matter how much you might want to.

19:51You know, you can't just like buy, you know, whatever deep and, you know, lo-fi or whatever and just set it and forget it and go, well, I'm, you know, I'm good. I got my 10x. I'm going to outpace Bitcoin. It doesn't work that way. You know, like it's a far more active process to actually be able to achieve that. And if you don't think that you can or you don't think that you are, you know, just have the resources or the time to be able to do that, there's nothing wrong with just holding Bitcoin. Like, just kind of go with your strength, you know, and like you're far better off going with your strength and succeeding than going with your weakness and failing, you know.

20:28And so, yeah. Yeah. And if you heard all of that and you said, you know what, I still want to outperform Bitcoin and I still want to chase generational wealth. Well, guys, we do have some nice portfolios, our crypto portfolio. We have Joe Bland's portfolio, Jamie Kutz's portfolio, Raoul's portfolio. So you guys can, you know, play along with those and, you know, just update your portfolio as those updates come. And you'll probably do really well, too. So that's another thing to keep in mind. You will do well, but I want to just say what you will do well. But just know that like we none of us being the experts, Joe, myself, Raoul, Julian, we don't have a crystal ball either.

21:08You know, we've got experience. We've got some expertise in terms of analytics and knowledge of macro and cycles and crypto and everything. But we can refine the probabilities to ensure greater odds of success. But again, anything can happen. I mean, anything can happen. Great, great point. Great little caveat there, Chris. So I know you wanted to, you touched on ETH a little bit here as you were going through all coins. I know you wanted to talk about the ETH chart, but I want to tie that in with a question that we got from Miles. Hi, Chris. Should I swap my XRP or TAU for ETH or keep the faith a little bit longer?

21:52So why don't we dive into that ETH chart and maybe see what we can tell Miles here? Well, so actually, here's ETH. Let me kind of first zoom out and let's look at ETH on a zoomed out perspective for just a second. So this is ETH-USD pair. This was way back at sort of the cycle lows back in 2022. ETH ran a decent, it was in a nice uptrend against USD for most of the cycle. I mean, really until this year, honestly, it was in a solid uptrend. Now, granted, it didn't really set any higher highs once it peaked initially in early 2024. but it was setting higher lows. And it was like, OK, yeah, it's not outpacing Bitcoin, but it's still going up.

22:36And so I'll take that. But then, you know, when the big correction happened at the beginning of this year, it just lost this whole structure. I mean, it blew out, blew the trend out, immediately was in a major, major downtrend all of a sudden. And it's really it hasn't quite yet recovered. You can see this long term trend line is still, you know, prices still below that trend line. However, it's, it's, you know, we got the upgrade and, and we got this big bounce based on the upgrade. And this is really what it needed. I mean, the reason it was going down as much as it was is because its fundamentals were frankly all out of whack, you know, and, and the, the Ethereum foundation was not guiding the ship very well.

23:16You know, they weren't necessarily being the best stewards of, of this project. And they, They had a change of leadership and they made some big upgrades. And, you know, we're seeing price reflect this. And honestly, I was expecting this to roll over a bit after this big uptrend here, this big candle rather. And to my surprise, to my pleasant surprise, it's managed to hold it pretty well. Now, if we kind of zoom in a little bit on the daily, you know, it's basically broken up kind of into the middle of this range. We had this low that was set down here at 1500 and then the highs that were around the 3800 level.

23:51And it's kind of hovering right in the middle. It sort of reclaimed the middle of this sideways range that it was in. But again, to my pleasant surprise, it has held it as support and it hasn't really corrected all that much, you know, like while Bitcoin has like in the last whatever week plus like Bitcoin peaked out and has lost its uptrend structure a little bit. I'm going to kind of zoom in to highlight these moving averages. You know, we didn't really get a crossover of the moving averages on the daily timeframe like we did on pretty much most other, all the majors like, you know, Solana, SWE, Bitcoin, all of those other ones rolled over and had crossovers, like bearish crossovers on the daily.

24:31Ethereum has managed to keep its structure. It's managed to keep its uptrend. And the two moving averages are kind of just like hovering right along with each other right now. But to me, ETH looks strong. And like if you compare it just briefly to the likes of of Solana, you know, again, Solana rolled over major, much, much more of a correction. It's below its bull market support band now. And, you know, moving average crossover to the downside, it got effectively rejected at its resistance level. Whereas, again, looking at ETH real quick, ETH is above it. ETH is above support, above support band.