Trading the Markets: May 28, 2025 | Kris Bullock and Nico Brugge

0:00Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

0:25Welcome back to Trading the Markets. No, your screens are not wrong. It's me, Nico Brugge. Bijan is on a much-needed vacation of sorts. So Chris, actually, of sorts sounds a little ominous. He's moving. He's moving, yeah. Yeah, he's moving. It's not like everybody's favorite vacation. Exactly. But anywho, I have the pleasure of hosting you, Chris Bullock, aka BlastoClass, today. How are you doing today, Chris? I'm doing well, thank you. Yes. Great. Great. So excited to talk the markets. Obviously, we've been in a bit of a sideways pattern. You and I were discussing this on the Discord show that we do for RV Connect members on the platform and on Discord.

1:09As I said, or as I wrote in the copy yesterday, it seems like Hyperliquid has taken quite a bit of liquidity out of the market, perhaps. What's what's going on? What's the big picture? And what's our bellwether Bitcoin telling us today? Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030.

1:48So just click on the link below and start your journey now. Well, unlike yesterday, where I was convinced that we had a little bit more upside to go, it's funny what a difference 24 hours makes. I now think that maybe the local top is in. I think that I'm starting to see a little tiny bit of a structural change combined with the fact that we've been running for about 51 days, I think, out of the lows. So it's very common around this timeframe generally for us to take a bit of a breather. and yeah, now it's looking more and more like, I think, what was it, last Wednesday's show? We were just setting all-time highs, if I remember correctly.

2:27We had just poked above the previous all-time high. We set a little bit of a higher high the next day after that. And I think that that ended up being the, again, the local top. I think that that was around day 45 out of that run from the lows. And now we're on a little bit past that, I think day 51. And yeah, you know, I think we're due for a bit of a, just a correction, a little bit of a breather. And I think what that looks like is maybe we just sort of come back down to this cluster in the 102, 103, 104 range, somewhere in there, you know, kind of come back down, touch this 20-day moving average, maybe a little bit more, and just sort of settle down for a second, which, again, we really need.

3:08I mean, you want to see that happen every whatever, 60 odd days or so, because that sort of refuels the next run. If it just keeps going up and up and up, eventually it'll run out of steam and it'll just crash like, you know, through the floor. And nobody wants that. We want this rally to continue for another eight to 12 months or more. And in order for that to happen, we need these regular touches or regular little break breakdowns below the 20 day moving average in order to sort of sustain that momentum. So I'm looking for that. And honestly, that's fine. And that's I think that's where we're at.

3:42And I think we're seeing a little bit of a larger sell off, a broader sell off in the rest of the market. Kind of if you glance over, just, you know, you don't have to see all the detail, but my watch list here you can see is predominantly red. And this is most of the top assets that I follow that I kind of keep a close eye on. As you can see, the majority of them are red. There's a few standouts, which I'll get into. But yeah, and so this is reflective of that sort of larger breather, that sell-off that I'm talking about. And so I think once Bitcoin completes whatever it's going to complete, once it kind of comes back down to this cluster here and bounces, then we'll see green across the board again.

4:18But for maybe the next week-ish, week to two weeks even possibly, it might be a little bit, you know, walk away from the charts and just don't pay attention for a minute. it. Don't look at your portfolio balance, let it sort of do its thing. And, you know, it'll be back soon enough. And so, so yeah, that's, that's largely where we're at, I think. And you don't think it's going to break down past 100 ,000, right? At what point you moved your cursor and landed on 94? And I was like, I really hope that's a mistake. There's always a chance. I mean, sure, if we look at the structure here, so we've got this side, this long sideways structure that has been the, well, the predominant horizontal structure going back to really the end of last year.

5:00And the middle, the mid range of this structure is right around 98.5, give or take. And then, you know, prior to that, we had another support cluster that had established around the 95 ,000 region. So if it does decide to break down a little bit further than this 103, 104, four. Yeah. Then we've got the middle of the range around 98, 99, maybe, you know, people, the, the, the even psychological level of a hundred K can often provide a support level. And then if that breaks down, sure, the, the sort of the outside scenario in this, in this situation is we do come back all the way down to the bottom of this range at 94.

5:39I don't think that's likely to me, that's sort of the least likely of these three scenarios, but anything's possible. And even if it does come all the way down here, that wouldn't really break the longer term kind of weekly uptrend structure that we're in, that would just be a larger, maybe unexpected correction in a otherwise healthy uptrend. So we can see like the bull market support band that represents kind of the 20 week moving average is in fact all the way down here at this lower level. And so having it come down to weekly support, while not awesome, is also not bad, you know, not like catastrophic in terms of like the larger uptrend.

6:19So yeah, anything's possible. But I think the highest probability scenario is 93, 94, you know, and then 90, maybe 100 and then 95 and so on. So yeah, that's what I see happening here. Love it. Music to my ears. Yeah, definitely sounds like a buying opportunity if you have some dry powder. Of course, none of this is financial advice, but definitely seems like an opportunity there. What else are you looking at, Chris? I know I sent you a trade idea from one of our members, Clayton, about ETH. We were talking about ETH yesterday on the Discord show. If you're not already a member, JoyRVConnect. So yeah, walk me through what your thoughts are on ETH.

7:03I know Clayton used a EM indicator, I believe. An exponential moving average indicator, yes. So, yeah, and he this is an indicator that he built himself basically, you know, how it's got moving averages that factor in crossovers with, I think, the 20, the 50 and the 200. If I'm not mistaken, I need to double check that. But yeah. And then as various crossovers occur, it flags buy and sell signals and it flagged a buy signal for ETH on the on the weekly based on the exponential moving averages. So, yeah, I get it. I mean, we've, you know, we had the big upgrade with ETH last week. No, I'm sorry.

7:41It was probably the week before. And of course, we had the big rally that came out of it. I like what ETH is doing with this upgrade. I like the fact that, you know, it's making ETH more competitive. It's sort of bringing ETH back to even whatever, an even playing field with the likes of Solana and SWE in terms of wallet functionality and, you know, just all kinds of stuff. It's faster. It's cheaper. all of the good things that we want to see from ETH. And the market reacted positively from that, and understandably so. However, there's a little bit, I think, of a caveat for me personally when it comes to ETH.

8:16And we touched on this on my show yesterday, Nico, you'll remember this chart. But what I'm looking for with ETH is this is the ETH Bitcoin chart. And maybe we've talked about it even on this show. But we can see that it's set a series of lower lows every single time it tries to reverse and break out of this downtrend that it's in. And it can't manage to do so. Every time it kind of tries to break out, it sets a lower low or lower high rather than the previous time. And right now we've had a big run out of the lows because it has outpaced Bitcoin over the last, you know, three or four weeks. And that's great.

8:52But in the end, all we really have seen, all we've really accomplished is a mean reversion back to the 20-week moving average. And so we've still got quite a ways to go to actually reverse this big, ugly downtrend that we're in that you can see is only really kind of picking up steam and getting even more exaggerated and more sort of parabolic to the downside even. And so it's got a ways to go still. Like it was so structurally damaged that it really needs to run for quite some time before it can reverse this trend against Bitcoin. And so while we need to see, well, what's happened is good, We still have, you know, it needs to kind of do the same thing again, as you can see, it needs to have yet another kind of massive big, you know, 25 % up candle to sort of break out of this and break this previous high that it had set.

9:46And so that's kind of what I'm looking for with ETH. You know, I think it's, you want to be careful not to just focus on its USD price. It's like, yeah, we know ETH is doing well against USD, but if it's still looking this bad against Bitcoin, then the answer is still hold Bitcoin, you know, not ETH. So I'm waiting to see the structure ultimately break and get reversed and start trading to the upside. And then I'll be like, all right, let's go. Let's, you know, it's time to be an ETH game on, but we're not quite there yet. Well, that is good to know. And thank you for that chart because that definitely sheds further light.

10:23Cause like you said, you look at the USD and you're like, oh, maybe it's time maybe ETH is back it's been dormant for a while um Solana seems to have eaten its lunch a bit here and there but uh yeah this this chart against BTC really tells a different picture at the end of the day it does and I wish it I wish it didn't uh you know I don't like looking at this chart honestly and I I can't don't either yeah and it will be a very joyous occasion uh the first time we set a higher high against Bitcoin, which has not happened since December of 2021. So I can't wait for that day to happen. But sadly, we got, you know, we got a little bit of work to do still.

11:04So yeah, I can't believe it's been that long. I mean, it feels like at once, like yesterday, but also like 100 years ago. I know. I know. Right. Yeah. Yeah.

11:16Firstly, what I do want to talk about is SPX. Oh. And SPX continues to be the story for me. And, you know, yesterday on the show, I was rejoicing because it was up 10%, you know, while most of the market was kind of flat. And yet again, today, it's up another 10 % and has broken out of this longer. I was, I remember just last night as I was going to bed, I was like, man, it's been at this resistance level for like going on seven days now. And I really just can't wait for it to break out above this, you know, because it was stopped back from here and it was just kind of stuck. And I'm like, please don't get rejected here.

11:53Please don't break down. And I woke up this morning and break out, you know, break out to the upside up another 10 % on the day. Meanwhile, everything else is down or flat, you know, Bitcoin's down, Solana, SWE, XRP. I mean, you name it across the board, all the big stuff is down. SPX up 10%. So again, it's just, it's, it's got the, it's got the wind in the sails, you know, It's continuing to run. And now we're starting to see all-time highs kind of come into the picture. Obviously, we've still got a ways to go. We're not there. But if we can flip this to support and continue building from there, you can see we've got a nice, really solid series of higher highs and higher lows.

12:33And this is great price action. This is something that is very sustainable as opposed to just something that's going straight up. Because anytime something goes straight up, like Hyperliquid, which I'll touch on in a second, it tends to kind of come back to earth a little bit. It tends to retrace a lot of that. But if you can get this steady grind where it's just sort of refueling each run and continuing to go, I'll take this all day long over straight up and down, you know. And so I love this price action. I love that it's just it's building it's building strength, building strength. And now we finally got this breakout.

13:05So, yeah, I think, again, SPX is something that should be on people's radars. It's proving itself to be a contender in the space. And I love what I'm seeing here. It's again, there's nothing else on my watch list that it looks remotely close to this right now. So it's good stuff. Yeah.

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14:27We can get into hype, which I just touched on. It's the coin of the week, it seems. I mean, it is. All anyone was talking about over the weekend on crypto Twitter. I mean, what's his fault seems to have made a killing and then lost 90 % of it, but still. Right. No, hype is, hype is, you know, hype is legit. Hype is not hype. It's no joke. And so, yeah, big breakout. And it's funny, I've been slowly watching this for this entire uptrend. And, you know, this wasn't sort of a surprise to me. But at the same time, I was obviously kicking myself for not opening a position down here at the lows when I when I saw it really start to run out, especially when it broke above its bull market support band here and kind of flipped it to support and continued to run and was really just sort of holding this 10-day moving average all the way up.

15:15I was like, man, hype, you know, hype's got, also hype's got the wind in its sails, kind of just like SPX does. And yeah, over the weekend and really the last week, it just blew up. And so at the same time, I'm not surprised to see it come back down as much as it has. You know, it's sort of retraced roundabout, close to 40 or 50 % of this run out of the breakout. And it's kind of come back down right to its 10 day moving average, almost not even, and has bounced up again since there. So what I'm looking for, I think with this is it's really going to kind of come down to what Bitcoin does. I think if Bitcoin, if my thesis is correct, that the local top is in for Bitcoin, I think we're going to see maybe it even come back down to its 20 day moving average here and likely retrace most of this move.

16:02And honestly, that's fine. You know, to me, that would be a really, really good buying opportunity and probably something I would I would jump into at that point. I think it's a little overcooked still. And since I do think, you know, my predominant base case is that Bitcoin is the local top is in. And so I do think we're going to see a little bit more of a correction here with hype. And I'll be looking for levels down around, you know, 2930, 2950, give or take. And to me, that'll be where I'll want to get back in. And that's okay. If it retraces most of this run that it went on, I still think that it's very much full of strength.

16:37I think that, you know, it's still got multiples left in the tank in terms of between now and the end of this four-year cycle, whenever that ends up being. And I think that hype has well cemented itself as a legitimate sort of player in this, in this current four-year cycle. Like I was saying on the show yesterday, it's, it's got the use case. It's got the it's got tons and tons of trading volume. It's generating tons of revenue. It's it's like a very viable business model and it's doing incredibly well. And it's talked about nonstop on on crypto Twitter. And so, yeah, it's it's not going anywhere.

17:11And kind of the sky's the limit. Now, where that sky is, I don't know. You know, the market cap is already pretty high on it. So we're not going to see 100x out of this, but definitely multiples to be had, especially if we can get, you know, maybe it come back down to this, this, you know, 28 level again, or something like that. So hype is absolutely one that should be on your radar if it's not. And yeah, I like it. It's, it's an, it's an amazing chart. So yeah. Well, maybe to a less amazing chart, let's maybe check out lo-fi how the Yeti is doing. As I admitted to everybody on weekly wrap up in our discord show, I rotated into lo-fi right where you see that drop a couple of weeks ago.

17:57So still quite bullish on it. I'm still a huge fan. I think it's a fun coin. It's obviously the leading one on Solana. But what are we looking at here, Chris? Well, yeah, I'm not. I'll kind of skip the stuff going on with SWE and Cetus and all that for a minute. Just looking at this from a technical, from a purely technical standpoint. Yeah, we do have a breakdown here. We've got a bearish crossover on these two moving averages. We've got the 10 crossing below the 20. We've got price now trading below both of them. And sort of the 20 day is serving as resistance right now. So not a great look.

18:34I mean, even here when we had a bit of a correction previous to that, yeah, we did get a little bit of a crossover, but price generally held this line. Whereas here, it's much more looking like it's resistance as opposed to here. It was just sort of floating along sort of loose support. You know, here it's much more of a sharper decline and much more of, yeah, it's ugly. But notwithstanding, I think the fundamentals are still good with this project. I think it still serves to be the premier meme coin for the SWE ecosystem. and depending on where you come out on the side of what you think, how you think SWE and CETUS are handling this hack and navigating through it in terms of recovering the funds and, you know, that, you know, that'll sort of dictate if you want to be in this asset or not.

19:27But if you are bullish on this, I do think that it will recover. I think that the market has sort of, you know, shown its hand in that it's not too down on what's going on with SWE. I think that generally SWE is doing okay. I think that Cetus will come back around. And I think that whether you like it or not, people generally favor making money over decentralization when it comes to the crypto ecosystem. Obviously, there's a large contingent of people who are very vocal about it, who have very strong feelings about decentralization. And rightfully so. I get where they're coming from. And it's completely legitimate.

20:05it. But in the end, I think that there's a little bit of room for nuance in the conversation. And I think that, sure, we need things like Bitcoin. We need things like Ethereum that have millions of validators that are incredibly decentralized. But, you know, there's also room in that conversation for new blockchains that don't have as many validators and are trying to sort of establish a solid, you know, framework, a solid foothold. And, you know, they've got to deal with things the way they've got to deal with them. And in the end, I think the majority of the market will favor profit over principles in terms of decentralization, you know, and whether you like that or not, I think that that's sort of just the way it is.

20:49Yeah, I know. It's going to get voted on and all of this stuff. So, I mean, we'll see. But we're talking, at least in this case, about a Yeti that has awakened and decided to found his own coin. So I'm not going to sort of loop in the great questions of decentralization with lo-fi at the moment right yeah any other coins you wanted to take a look at today before we wrap up uh if you have any questions remember you can drop them in the chat although i understand it is one of those sideways trade action days where everybody's just a little bit like okay can we just have some sort of significant move one way or the other yeah there's a few things i want to talk about um and really what i want to touch on, I want to just highlight the idea that in your alt portfolio, you know, we're continuing to see Bitcoin dominance still showing a lot of strength.

21:41It had a little bit of a wobble, you know, last week or two when Ethereum went on its run, but it has since sort of recovered its strong uptrend that it's in and really to me shows no signs of slowing down. And so I just really wanted to reemphasize, reiterate that you need to be very, very selective with the alt positions that you're holding right now, because not very many of them are outpacing Bitcoin. And honestly, not very many of them, I think, are going to outpace Bitcoin over the duration of the next six to 12 months. And so I wanted to just kind of go through a sort of in a rapid fire fashion here, a number of charts that come up a lot in our shows each week and just sort of show how they're doing against Bitcoin and, you know, just kind of raise awareness of things that you should be paying attention to.

22:29And so let's start with Solana. And for this sort of chunk, I'm going to use my trading alpha indicator that I use a lot because it's very sort of easy to visualize in rather black and white terms, or I guess green and red, if you will, how things are doing against Bitcoin. And so we'll look at a bunch of alt versus Bitcoin charts, starting with Solana here. We can see Solana doesn't look great. And this is on the weekly timeframe. I think it's important to look on the weekly timeframe and look at how your alts are doing against Bitcoin. And if they're not outpacing it on the weekly timeframe, then probably you shouldn't be in them because there's enough stuff that is that just go be in that stuff instead.

23:06And so Solana doesn't look great right now against Bitcoin. It looks rather ugly. It's got all the hallmarks of this indicator of a downturn. We've got red candles. We've got red dots. We've got a red track line here. And I, you know, I think Solana is a good asset overall. I think it will, you know, it's not going anywhere in terms of its tech and its importance in the space. But as an investment, purely as an investment, it is not outperforming Bitcoin right now. And I am starting to get a little bit on the fence of if it will or not in the end. Moving on to SWE. SWE looks better, but largely because it hasn't been around nearly as long.

23:45But it's very flat against Bitcoin. It's not like blowing it away by any stretch. You know, it's kind of just trending sideways. And so maybe ask yourself, do I really want to be in this much more volatile of an asset that's sort of this much further out the risk curve when really it's not benefiting me a ton? You know, should I, you'd be almost just as well off holding Bitcoin. Now, I do think that SWE probably will in the end outpace Bitcoin by the end of the year but it's not again it's not blowing it out of the water right now um eath we've touched on eath already eath just looks i mean if you know this is as black and white as it gets and it looks terrible um moving yeah a bloodbath moving on to spx spx looks uh better but also not you know it's not blowing it away yes overall since its inception it is blowing it away by literally tens of thousands of percent.

24:40So if you were lucky enough to have bought SPX way down here, then it wouldn't really matter what's going on up here. I bought it somewhere in this general vicinity here. So I'm doing okay. But we need to see it sort of break a higher high against Bitcoin. And then I'll be happy with that. Deep is another one that we talk about a lot on the weekly shows. it's also just kind of doing okay um but it's sort of resting its support and needs to needs to bounce uh fart coin actually fart coin looks pretty good fart coin you know solid green dots uh green candles on the weekly and and this is against bitcoin so it's continuing to show a lot of strength uh xrp is another one that comes up a lot in our weekly shows and this is i think important because it's losing its downtrend it was holding up well you know everything all those dino coins had that big run out of the end of the year.

25:35And this was one of them. And it benefited from that. And it held up better than nearly all of them, if not all of them, if I'm not mistaken. But as we can see, it's kind of losing it. It's sort of losing its structure. We've got these red dots on the weekly are a definite sort of precursor to a rollover combined with the fact that it has lost its bull market support band here. And so, you know, I don't know. XP or XRP doesn't look very good to me, honestly. I'll touch on just a few more real quick. WIF is another one that's been coming up as of late because WIF has been doing really well. But yeah, this looks ugly to me.