Trading the Markets: October 1, 2025 | Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki

0:00Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto crypto and the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five-star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot.

0:42Happy Wednesday, everyone. Welcome back to another episode of Trading the Markets with Chris Bullock, a.k.a. BlastoPlast. This is the show where we dive into what's going on in the markets, see if we can find any trade ideas, and of course, take all your questions live. So if you have any questions, just submit them on the live chat on X or on platform or on YouTube. And we will take as many as we can. Well, the markets are up, Chris, you know, and I was asking you off air. Does that mean government shutdowns are good for crypto? Well, we'll dive into the charts and we'll see what's going on in the market today.

1:24But government shutdowns are not good for my Internet. So, guys, I might be in and out. Just bear with me. Chris might be going solo at some points. I'm in my parents' basement, so times are a little tough here and there. But without further ado, I actually, you know, with further ado, I do want to remind you all that you can join our waitlist because something is coming. So join the waitlist. Head over to realvision.com forward slash waitlist to join. And of course, while you're in the mood of joining something, join our Discord, guys. come in, take part in the chat, take part in the Hive Mind sharing session.

2:05We talk about all the charts, all the tokens, all the time. So make sure you guys join us and take part in the chat. All right. Now, without further ado, Chris, happy Wednesday. What's on your mind as the candles are looking green right now? I mean, yeah, I think it's, you know, crypto is up. It's October, as they say. It's what we've all been waiting for. And right now I'm asking myself, is it just the market makers kind of doing their typical Wednesday, you know, pump and then reversal back down into the weekend? Or is there more to it? Is there more meat on the bones? Is there more going on than just that?

2:40And I think there is. I think that there's actually, I think there's a lot of good stuff going on. I mean, we're seeing from a macro standpoint, let's start with just some kind of basic macro stuff. We're seeing that the dollar index is trending downwards, which I think, is a good sign. At the same time, we're seeing Global M2 is trending up. So those two things are key. We need those things to be in place for this larger sort of Uptober sort of Q4 trend that we've all been waiting for. This is a good sign. It's a good step in the right direction. Also, just today, new PMI numbers came in, which I know we talk about a lot.

3:14We know we need the PMI to be above 50. It's not above 50 yet, but it is up about four basis points from last month. So at least it's trending in the right direction, baby steps, I guess, if you will, but at least it's not going down. So we're inching closer to 50. And I think, you know, maybe next month, we'll get the magic number. But like I said, at least at the moment, we can say that it is putting in a higher low, and it is a slightly higher high, you know, from this previous peak back at the beginning of the year. So I'll take it, I'll take it if it needs to ladder up, that's fine, I guess.

3:46But at least again, we're trending in the right direction overall on a longer term basis, and at least in the last two months. So I like what I'm seeing there. Also, I think it's important to note that we're seeing a little bit of a bump in ETFs. We had a major sort of dip last week in the final, we saw the sort of three weeks in a row trending down. And then we saw a net outflow of ETFs in the final week of September or the final part of September here. And then also with Ethereum too, we saw a big dip, a net outflow of ETFs. And if we look at this current week, we're back to the upside. We've got a net inflow looking at, you know, the current week right now.

4:24And then the same thing with Ethereum and net inflow ETFs. So we're seeing some institutional money come in. We're seeing some macro data, you know, fall in line. And, you know, all of this is good, which leads me to Bitcoin, which is basically just doing exactly what I've said it's going to do for, you know, the last month plus now. We had a big and I think what I want to point out here is I noted how, you know, this first chunk, I drew some choppy lines because I knew it would be choppy. And then when I sort of predicted the bottom, I said it was just going to kind of run from there. And if you'll note, we've got some big, big solid green candles here, you know, over the last few days.

5:04You know, we're up 3 % today. We had another almost 2 % here. And then we had, you know, two and a quarter percent here. So we're seeing some nice big candles that sort of is reflective of this run up out of these lows that I was talking about. And right now we're at a pretty key resistance level, which I've kind of got outlined on this chart here. I had drawn a line on this previous peak here that we set back in the middle of September, right at about 118 ,000. And I said, once we get above this level, this is gonna kind of be the key to sort of signify the breakout, to signify the new uptrend.

5:39And we've kind of wicked above it so far today, which I think is a huge step in the right direction. I'd really love to see us actually close above this level today, which would be even more bullish. But I'll take a wick for now, at least in the moment. It's technically a higher high. So we've got a high here. We've got a higher low here. And we've got a higher high here. So, again, everything is kind of trending in the right direction. And, you know, so far, so good. Big green candle today, you know, pierced above this previous high. And everything is moving in the right direction. There's a lot of other assets that we're going to look at throughout the show that are also doing really, really good things, too.

6:16Well, I don't know if you want to dig into them now. I don't know if we have any questions. What do we got, Bijan? Yeah, I want to take this one question before we start digging into things. So Alex Jensen from the platform wants to know, so we have not closed the CME gap from the weekend. Do you think we have to retest the$110 ,000 mark for Bitcoin? Well, it's funny with those. The CME gaps do close about 90 or so percent of the time. I think I read somewhere in there. So there's always a chance that it will come back down. But also, you know, there's whatever, a 10 % chance that it doesn't. They don't always close all the time forever.

6:52There are some that do get left open. I don't know. It's tricky with that. Like, I would, it doesn't seem like it wants to come back down. But those CME gaps definitely are, you know, compelling for sure. And like I said, they do close more often than not, much more often than not. So I don't know. My gut tells me it probably won't, but the odds aren't in my favor either. I think, though, that, you know, I think that definitely if we close above 118 today and sort of continue this momentum, the odds are lower and lower that that will that will actually play out. But we'll have to see. I don't know.

7:29It's a good question. Thanks for the question, Alex. And another question, Chris, before we dive into some more specific tokens and charts, more of a general question for you, because there's been a lot of talk of an extended cycle, right? And especially, you know, Raul and Julian just did their AMA, their live AMA on the everything code, kind of walked us through everything with, you know, just a lot of charts, right? And so the line of thinking now is that, you know, we kind of extend it might be extended to Q2 of 2026. What are your thoughts on that? Is there anything that you're seeing in the charts that kind of, you know, may agree or disagree with that?

8:06I honestly very much agree with that. And it's funny, I've been thinking about this quite a bit over the last few days or even weeks. And I'm starting to wonder if we're going to see a scenario play out where we do run into Q2 even. Maybe we kind of sort of peak, quote unquote, around the April-May timeframe. And then we have a bit of just a lull over the summer, but maybe a bigger lull. Maybe it's a four-year cycle peak in April, but maybe we only correct 40 % or 50 % across the board with Bitcoin. and then run up into a new four-year cycle right away, you know, towards the end of the year or like an extended cycle.

8:48And what that might look like is kind of, if we look, let me pull up like Bitcoin on the weekly here. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin, but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? you can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments.

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9:54Because I can see kind of a similar thing playing out to what has played out really over the last two years, two or three years, where, you know, we had a big run up. And then over the summer, it was just sideways, boring sideways. everybody was so bored, you know, over the stretch in 2023. And then in 2024, it was even much worse. It was like, you know, we had a big run up coming into February, March, we sort of peaked around the April timeframe here. And then it was just like, down only, you know, until the basically until September, and then we rocketed out again, I can kind of see something like that playing out only with just like a bigger correction.

10:27Maybe we again, maybe we get a 40 or 50 % correction instead of a 20 or 30, like we've been. And maybe that's like all we get for like a bear market, you know, for the big, the big sort of year long bear market that we're all expecting. It could be something along those lines. And then again, just, and then just keep running after that. So I'm very much in alignment with what, with, uh, Raul and Julian are saying. Uh, I think that that makes sense. I think too, a lot of the, you could talk about too, like the PMI that we just talked about, it's not even at 50 yet. And I think once it gets above 50, it will likely run for some time.

11:01In fact, let me go back to that real quick, because, you know, I think because it was suppressed for so long, it's likely to run for quite some time after. So I think that that's going to skew things a little bit, too. I think that the dollar index is likely to let me pull let me kind of zoom out on this. I've got all kinds of stuff here. This is a good question. If we zoom out on the on the weekly on the dollar index, I could easily see that coming all the way down to these sort of low 90s, high 80s levels that it did sort of in the, whatever, let's see, the late 2021 timeframe. I could see it coming back down to here.

11:37So that'll sort of, again, fuel a longer rally. And then finally, I think, oh, I had another good point. Damn it. What was it? I mean, long story short, yes. I think that there's a lot of good reason for that to play out. Man, I had a really good point. I forgot it. Oh, well, maybe I'll come back to it. But yes, I think that I think that things will run for for some. Oh, I remember. So the the Fed chair. So Powell ends his his term in May. And we we kind of know from just a lot of rumor talking about that the new Fed chair that's going to come in is likely going to be less neutral, you could say, You know, partisan, even a bit of a puppet, even if you will.

12:22You know, so if we get that, we know that they're going to be heavily pro-crypto. We know that they're going to maybe make a lot of short-term decisions that will positively impact the crypto cycle, maybe at the expense of longer-term economic stability even perhaps. But I think that, you know, we've got all of this stuff coming in line. We've also got regulatory framework and legislation coming online. That's all going to be Q4, Q1. So we'll need a year for a lot of this stuff to play out. So there's a ton of reasons why we could see a very extended cycle, maybe even well beyond Q1 or Q2. So all of that is why, yes, I'm very much in line with Raul and Julian on that.

13:03Yeah, it definitely goes to your point too of kind of maybe a shorter bear or it's just a smaller correction than what we've been used to in those bear markets before we start back up again. Right, right. Yeah, exactly. All right. So before we kind of we have a couple of questions about some specific coins, but before we get hit those, let's maybe look at some of the majors right now. Let's you know what some of the ones that are hot on your watch list that you're you're really into. I know hype is something that we talked about on Monday that you were really, you know, still very much bullish on.

13:37What what of the majors are you, you know, most bullish on right now or that have your attention? um well like yeah i wanted to touch on ethereum real quick because i noticed this um i was looking at this a minute ago before the show started and we had this big this big wedge pattern that ethereum was in um you know starting going back all the way back to 2021 and it broke out of this wedge in august and then it kind of came up touched a new all-time high and got rejected here which wasn't surprising but it came back down and if you'll notice um well let me go back to the daily time from here.

14:11It bounced off the top of this wedge pattern, like, you know, to a T. I mean, just perfectly. It came down, tested it as support perfectly. You know, it was resistance here, broke out, came back down, tested it, and has bounced perfectly off of it. So, nice technical pattern here. I think Ethereum looks really strong. I think it's, you know, it's going to continue heavily to the upside. Same thing with Solana. Solana almost looks even better still we're seeing solana follow this nice laddering sort of up pattern uh perfect higher high higher low you know nice bounce off the the bull market support band here i really love the look of of solana and this structure that it's in and then hype uh like you said hyper liquid is almost the same exact type structure not quite as uh pronounced to the upside but still a nice ladder pattern of of higher highs and higher lows that it's continuing so um hyper liquid liquid continues to look really strong.

15:05Pengu is another one that jumped out at me. Nice big double digit day, perfect bounce off of the bull market support band here. There's not a ton that's actually putting in double digit days. So I think it's noteworthy, the ones that are. Pump.fun also putting in a big double digit day. I've noticed too, it kind of came back up to this resistance level, which was basically it's open. It had broken out. It basically got a little bit over exuberant. So I wasn't surprised to see this big correction, but it bounced here, didn't even come back down to its 50-day moving average and is already back up past this resistance level.

15:40So Pump is actually looking really good right now too. There's a ton of them. There's a ton of them that are looking good. There's some that are looking really good that are heavily up into the double digits. But yeah, everything is up right now. Everything looks really good at the moment. Awesome. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. So let's dive into Sebastian's question from the platform.

16:17How are the signals looking for arrow and overall will the altcoin rally continue um i do think the rally will continue uh and arrow is looking good arrows got a similar ladder pattern like i was just showing with hyperliquid and and solana i like to it's i mean it's as good as either of those honestly it bounced perfectly off of its bull market support band to setting you know a nice series of higher highs and higher lows um i think aerodrome will continue to do well i think it's tie-in with Coinbase is really strong and that's not going to go anywhere. It's going to continue to benefit from that.

16:54And it's seeing really high volume, really high TVL. It's one of the stronger DeFi assets in the space right now. And this chart is reflective of that clearly. So yeah. Awesome. Thank you for the question, Sebastian. And then, you know, I know this hasn't been asked yet, but I know I'm reading our community's mind right now and they want you to go look at SWE. Yes. SWE is having a good day. It's still in a bit of a sideways pattern. It kind of needs to regain its momentum, but it's doing what it needs to do in the moment in that it's solid. What is it? Up six or so percent on the day. I'd like to see it up double digits like some of the other ones, but it's back up above its bull market support band, at least.

17:41It's above its 10-day. It really needs to get back above its 50-day and its 20-day, though, which it's not. So it's got some work to do. It's in a larger sort of structural downtrend, which I don't love at the moment. And I don't like that it sort of broke down out of the bottom side of this wedge. So it technically doesn't look as good as some of the other stuff that we've been talking about. But it's hanging in there. It's tracking with the market, at least in the moment. And overall, I'm still bullish on the project. but um there's no question that the momentum has waned a little bit on sweet i mean there's objectively there's no there's no two ways about it you know as much as i hate to say that but um we know fundamentally the project is still strong we know there's there's money coming in there's they're generating money there's treasuries coming online they're they're they're they're cooking you know uh behind the scenes they're not slowing down behind the scenes and it's a great team as we know so um the you know i think the the odds are still in their favor for sure yeah all right well let's uh let's head over to a coin that i've been very bullish on uh for you know maybe about a week now which is punk strategy i want to highlight uh yeah i want to check first of all let's take a look at their charts see what you're what you're thinking there yeah um yeah so so yeah the chart the chart continues to look good um it's it's definitely a little bit overbought.

19:05The RSI is pretty high at the moment, although in crypto, we know that can not necessarily mean anything. The RSI can stay overbought for literally weeks at a time. But it's objectively doing well. It had a little bit of a slowdown here. I almost bought here and I'm kicking myself for not buying here because now it's up almost 2X from there just in the last... This is a four-hour candle, mind you, because it's brand new, as we know. So, but yeah, it's going on setting new, it literally just set a new all-time high in the last four hour candles. So looks really good. Continuing to adopt new buyers.

19:41One thing, it's a little interesting to me and I need to double check because the volume isn't as high as I'd like it to see, but I think that this is only showing it on this one pair on Uniswap and I need to look and see, maybe this isn't the primary exchange where it's traded, but I was surprised that the volume is maybe as low as it is, given how much attention it's getting right now. But the market cap is still really, really low, which I think is really favorable for it. And it's not too late, I feel like. And I do feel like that it's going to continue to run. I do want to see some of these punks actually sell that it's buying, because I think that's obviously going to really jump the price big time as soon as that starts happening.

20:20So as we kind of touched on this a little bit on the Monday show, how the flywheel hasn't fully sort of done its thing yet. it's sort of stuck on the part where the punks need to start selling, you know, that, that, uh, or the punks need to be bought that it's trying to sell. But, um, in the meantime, good things are happening. Uh, it's generating fees. It's buying more punks. It's, it's doing what it needs to do. Uh, the price is going up more, you know, more holders, all, all of that stuff. So, and I think that it will, and I do think it's only a matter of time before some of these punks start selling.

20:51And so I probably need to get in on this too, because I, I think as soon as even one of those sell, that's going to be you know 50 plus eth immediate buy and that's going to be a huge green candle right there i mean a huge green candle and then maybe you know if somebody even comes in and starts sweeping the floor on some of these punks it's just going to go exponential so um really really interesting project for sure yeah absolutely i think they're up to 18 or 19 punks now when we talked about this on monday i think they had like 15 in the vault so they're obviously picking up quite a bit. So that's the trade idea I put in last week.

21:25Doing well. I think we got in just under a$50 million. I think when I input, so I wrote a note. When I wrote the note, it was at$50 million market cap, but then it dipped a little bit. And I actually ended up getting this in, I believe it was around 42 or 43 million market cap. So looking good. But honestly, like you said, Chris, I don't think it's too late on this one. I think it's only, what, just barely over a hundred million market cap. We see direct hit like almost$500 million market cap. So I think this one just definitely can, has another five, even 10 X left in it. Easy. And just like you said, all it takes will take is one punk to sell, not just even for the price action, because that will skyrocket once they buy that 50 ETH and burn it, but also people that may be sitting on the sidelines or people that have some already all they need to see is just proof of the concept and once they see that they might just start going in gung-ho if you will so i i really do like this project i like the idea behind it and one thing i also like about them is they're not alone there's a whole i guess meta of nft strategy tokens you got pudgy strategy you have me bit strategy squiggle strategy you have uh i I think Dickbutt strategy.

22:44And then you have Max Payne strategy coming out soon and a few other strategies in the works that are all going to benefit Punk strategy. They're all going to dedicate at least 1 % of their buybacks to buying Punk strategy and burning it. So there's multiple streams of demand coming in for this, which makes me pretty bullish overall. So if you feel like you missed the boat, listen, it's still barely over 100 million market cap, which we know is nothing for, you know, I guess a meme coin or I guess this is a strategy coin now, right? You know, we had the brand coins, we had the meme coins. So love this trade and looking forward to seeing how this ends up doing.

23:24Yeah. This one could absolutely just rocket instantly, you know, and go from 100 million to three or four or 500 million, you know, in no time at all. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. All right. Well, we'll keep an eye on it. definitely one that we'll be monitoring going forward. Chris, we got a question from ET. What do you think of near? Do you think there will be another nice entry for it? I missed$2.57 yesterday. Well, ET, I think a lot of us missed a lot of entries yesterday compared to how the prices are today. So don't worry too much, but let's see what we think of near. We haven't been super bullish on this one in the past, but has that changed, Chris?

24:06Well, it's funny. If you're looking for an entry in near, I don't think you're too late. You know, it's still, it's still basically right at its bull market support band. It's, it's just tapping its 50 day moving average. But like you said, Bijan, the larger concern for me is, is really the upside potential here. I don't know how, how much I see in it. Honestly, it's just, it's, it's been largely underperforming the rest of the market for some time now. And I often go back to the Bitcoin, the near Bitcoin chart when this comes up. Let me see.

24:43Because yeah, this is the larger issue for me with near is it's just, and even if you zoom out to the weekly timeframe, let my scale go. There we go. Yeah. So this is like, you know, this is near Bitcoin. So since May of 2024, it's just been kind of down only. It had a run in the early or late stages of 2023 in that big alt run that we had. But outside of this run here, it's wildly outperformed Bitcoin. If you would have bought near at the beginning of the 2023 cycle, you would be down against Bitcoin like, well, what do we got here? you would have be down 80%. You would have lost 80 % value against Bitcoin.

25:27So you would have been far better off just holding Bitcoin honestly the whole time as opposed to holding near for the duration of the four-year cycle. Outside of this little period, this kind of four or five-month period where it outperformed, it's largely just been down only against Bitcoin. So I'm honestly really iffy on near. I mean, what this is showing here is the market just isn't, there's not a bid for near in the same way as there is for some of these other alts. And I don't know why. I mean, we know fundamentally it's a really solid project. What they're doing is great. You know, it's a good team.

25:57It's a good project. But the market just doesn't like it for whatever reason. And I can't tell you why. You know, there's just that's the case with with a lot of good alts, honestly. But I think it's important to, you know, look at what it's doing against Bitcoin and make sure that it's outpacing it. Because if not, honestly, you're better off just holding Bitcoin. And I think that that's the case here. Absolutely. And Jamie, Jamie Coots was very bullish on near a while back and he got rid of it. Right. You know, he got it out of his portfolio. So I think that to me, I mean, I was I was already, you know, with you on near Chris.