Trading the Markets: September 3, 2025 | Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki

0:00Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world of that nexus of understanding of macro crypto in the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five-star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot.

0:26Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of Trading the Markets with Chris Bullock, aka BlastoPlast. I want to thank Nico for hosting a great episode last week. I'm back from a little time off, and I do want to mention to you guys, I have a little bit of an announcement here. For those of you, if you've ever thought about earning money while helping Real Vision grow, now is actually your chance to have your passion for Real Vision pay off. Raoul just sat down with James Easton, Real Vision's first affiliate, to discuss how James came to be, you know, Real Vision's first affiliate and how he's already making$5 ,000 in referrals.

1:14So you can actually learn more about that program and you can apply yourself to become a Real Vision affiliate. You can just visit the link below and apply. We want to see you guys all come through. We want to grow Real Vision with you and reward you for doing so. So make sure you check that out. And, you know, we were here, we did our show yesterday because, you know, Monday was a U.S. holiday. So we talked over just so many different coins, so many different charts. And Chris, what has changed since yesterday? Well, very little, honestly. But the good thing is, is it's playing out as I said it would well yesterday.

1:55So so far, so good. We're on the right track. Prices are continuing to move up. If we just look at the chart here, let's start with Bitcoin. Basically, yeah, we're moving up. And my current base case that I talked about yesterday on the show is that we kind of run back up to around the between 118, 120 range, sort of back where this, you know, good chunk of horizontal price action is. I think we're going to get rejected there. I don't really see us going on to set a new high yet because of multiple reasons, which I'll get into. And I kind of expect us to roll back over, honestly, and maybe even come back down to, you know, this previous horizontal range that we just bounced back out of.

2:33And then, you know, later in September, I think that's when we'll really kind of rock it out to new highs. And so, yeah, I mean, and so far so good. We were quite oversold across the board and we're seeing reversals everywhere. And so that's why I was expecting to see a bit of a bump. But just based on, I know we talked about seasonality a little bit yesterday. day. I don't expect, while I do think September could still be a green month, I don't necessarily expect it to be, you know, you know, to the moon quite yet. I think that it'll be a bit muted, if anything. And that also is sort of, I guess, reinforced by, you know, some other, like macro and macro indicators that we're seeing.

3:15Things like the dollar index, it's kind of, for example, it's fighting to sort of break out. It continues to get rejected in this downtrend. I do think it'll ultimately roll back over, but it's not really going down to the degree that I expected it would. And so this sort of this, you know, the dollar kind of fighting to remain strong, even though it continues to be rejected, is kind of holding its thumb down on the price of Bitcoin and things like that, crypto assets. And then, but in other news, the PMI, a little bit of a bounce. We went from 48, what is it, 48 to basically 48.7. I do think this is gonna continue.

3:55I do think eventually it does get above 50 in the next coming months, but we're not quite there yet. And so I think that's gonna help things. And then just looking at M2, we've got the yellow line is the global M2. And then this green line is the three-month rate of change. And I've been looking for this also to form a bottom and bounce back to the upside. But right now, basically, the three-month rate of change is kind of in a downtrend. And also, the M2 itself is, yeah, it did poke a little bit higher high, but it's also mostly just been flat, I feel like, for the last month plus. And so we're seeing just a little bit of stagnation across the board from a macro standpoint.

4:35point and uh as soon as this flips over and reverses back to the upside that's going to give us a good indication that sort of the foot is back on the gas pedal money's coming back into the system and you know things are ready to run but again i don't think we're quite there yet so that's why i come back to this chart here and i think we're going to have a bit of a just kind of a sideways choppy a bit of an anemic september before things really get rolling and so that's what i'm seeing now that's my base case obviously anything can happen uh i think this is the most likely scenario, the most highest probability scenario.

5:08But of course, any announcement can throw a wrench in that in any given time. So outside of that, I think we're seeing a lot of strength in the alt markets, which we'll get into. There's a bunch of charts that have formed bottoms and confirmed reversals that I want to run through. But yeah, that's kind of what I'm seeing in a nutshell right out of the gate here. Well said, Chris, and definitely something for us to look forward to and pay attention to in this typically historically red month. Although yesterday you actually went through the charts and we saw that it's not, well, yes, you know, that's kind of the meme, right?

5:42It's Rectember, Red September. It's not always red, right? So that's some great food for thought. And before we kind of dive into some of these reversals that Chris is seeing, I want to remind you all that are watching live, whether that's on the platform or on X, if you have any questions or any charts you want us to look at or any topics you want us to discuss, just put them into the live chat or in the comments on X and we will get to as many as we can. So Chris, exciting stuff to hear that we got some reversals, confirmed reversals, right? Especially considering last week we had quite the dip and quite the volatility on the downside.

6:20So why don't we start diving into some of those and seeing what the charts say? Yeah, yeah. Right now, definitely the strength. I feel like even though Bitcoin did confirm a reversal, which we can see on the chart here. And this is the trading alpha indicator set that I have been loving and have been using for a long time. And it, you know, flipped a bottom signal here on Sunday and then quickly confirmed it, you know, with a higher high really on Monday, yesterday, and has gone on to set higher highs. But outside of that, really, the strength has been largely with Ethereum and Solana. Those of the sort of big mega caps, those ones have just been really, really solid.

6:58They didn't even need to form reversals because they didn't even really go into corrective phases to begin with. So it's like, I'm not even going to get to those yet. But yeah, so Bitcoin confirmed reversal. I'll just kind of rapid fire through some of these real quick. We got SWE confirmed reversal here. We got the reversal signal with, you know, a higher high again today. XRP, same thing, you know, bottom signal confirmed reversal, higher high again today. So, you know, we're seeing all of these like lo-fi, for example, lo-fi blowing up confirmed reversal, big, you know, immediate trend reversal.

7:32Like it's put in a like a 20, no, 40 % candle yesterday, another 20 % candle today. Something happened with lo-fi and it's just, you know, to the moon. What else do we got? Syrup. Syrup's another one, you know, solid looks looking like it's wanting to break out. It's been really kind of low volatility lately, but we got a solid, you know, thrust upward arrow here, kind of confirmed, you know, uptrend happening. Say is another one that I noticed as I was kind of digging through here. Another confirmed reversal. We got the bottom signal here, higher high again here. Deep, deep was another one that came up.

8:08It's kind of same thing, you know, bottom signal here, higher high here. So Pengu, Pengu is another one. We can talk about Pengu for a second here. Yeah. I mean, immediate confirmed reversal, you know, bottom signal here, big bullish divergence flag coming up here, you know, big higher high again the next day. And then wrecked also wrecked as we know is crushing it wrecked to bottom signal here, you know, much higher high again here. So there's a ton, but those, you know, those are just a handful kind of to rapid fire through. Like I think what we're seeing across the board is bottoming reversal.

8:49And, you know, we're going to run back up. We're seeing that mentioned with Bitcoin, but it's happening with everything. And so, and Rekt, we want to talk about a little bit because there's good news going on with Rekt. Absolutely. Yeah, you know, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention that big news coming from Rekt Drinks yesterday, announced a strategic partnership with GameSquare that will include adding$2 million of Rekt to uh game square's digital asset treasury so just absolutely enormous stuff going on behind the scenes at rect and i would you know i think we we can probably just knowing that team you know knowing uh who's working in rect drinks and just that ecosystem we can probably uh anticipate some more great strategic partnerships in the pipeline so definitely want to just give a shout out to ov and mando and just everyone in that ecosystem because that is just uh some huge huge news now Now, Chris, I do want to talk to you because I think it is important to mention because I don't want to single out World Liberty Financial.

9:55We had a great little kind of, I guess, disclaimer, if you will, about these types of coins that drop with such high valuations and kind of what the smartest play on those is. Right. And let me hint, it's definitely not chasing them when they drop and coming to FOMO. But yeah, Chris, why don't we take a look at those charts and kind of echo some of what we said yesterday, because I think it's really important for people that are feeling like they may have missed the boat or weren't on the inside of something like this to kind of hear, you know? Sure, sure. So yeah, and like you said, not singling out World Liberty, they're just kind of the latest example of this trend.

10:32And that trend being there's all of these tokens that come out that are they're called VC tokens, basically. And by that, I mean, there's tons of actual VC investment that buy in in like a presale or get access or get out by allocations to tokens way before they ever go on sale to the public. And so in order to kind of.

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11:28With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500. It's trading with a plus. You know, be a viable investment for these VCs, these tokens launch with like multi-billion dollar valuations right out of the gate. And they launch on every top tier exchange on day one, like Coinbase and Binance and, you know, Kraken and all of those like immediately on day one.

12:09And what happens is, is by the time they launch on these exchanges, you know, they launch at valuations that are often 10x what these VCs bought in their pre-sale, you know, or not just VCs, but just lots of insiders have access to pre-sales where they buy these funds before they go on sale to the public. And so they're basically up 10x immediately as soon as the token launches. And so anybody that buys this token on the public exchanges through the public launch are essentially exit liquidity. They're immediately upside down in their trade, and they're going to be upside down for potentially even months before sort of the bottom is established and sort of a real-world valuation is established for these assets.

12:49And meanwhile, these insiders just walk away with millions of dollars in profit before trading even began, basically. And again, it's not specific to just world liberty. That's one example. But any time basically you see a token launch on every top-tier exchange at a multibillion-dollar valuation on day one, honestly, that's kind of one of the problems with this space as it stands currently. And that's something that you should avoid like the plague. Like that's never going to be a good investment for you. Like you need to, again, wait weeks or even months for the actual real world market to establish a valuation for this token.

13:26And oftentimes it's much, much lower than what it launches at. And we can see there's countless examples of these that I could just run through. If you go into like the, just pull up like CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko or whatever, and I could point out 15 or 20 of them in the top 100 that were these kind of VC tokens that launched at multi-billion dollar valuations that are trading at a fraction of their price now. And we need this to go away, basically. This is not a good model. This is not a good, like this kind of came about as a product of like the ICO clamp down. And, you know, the initial, we had the ICOs back in the day.

14:02And, you know, as we know, the government sort of put the kibosh on that. And so the space has been trying different ways and different models to sort of launch new tokens. And they kind of came up with this, but they need to go back to a different model. There's other tokens that launch that are called fair value launches where they basically launch it at zero. You know, they don't launch a multi-billion, they launch at zero and everybody has equal access to the token, whether you're a billionaire, you know, venture capitalist or you're, you know, a brand new person who just, you know, started crypto today and you've got 20 bucks in your pocket.

14:34You have the same equal access to this token as those guys. And that's what we need to go back to. And those are the tokens that you want to be investing in. The ones that start from the bottom and work their way up as opposed to start at the top and work their way down. And so just as kind of a general rule of thumb, I would say don't, it's not really in your best interest. It's the odds are stacked against you if you go chasing after these VC tokens that launch at these multi-billion dollar valuations. You're just going to get hosed 99 times out of 100. And it's just not worth it. There's better ways to go about it.

15:07There's better assets to be in. And don't go doing this. Don't chase this stuff. Yeah. Translation, honestly, if you were not a part of the pre-sale, you are the exit liquidity. Exactly. Exactly. If you can get in on the pre-sale, then go for it. But if you're not on the pre-sale, then yeah, you're somebody else's profit. And that's all there is to it, basically. Yeah, well said. I think that was just an important topic to cover because this definitely wasn't the first and it won't be the last, unfortunately won't be the last. So keep that in mind when the next one comes. So a quick break in your regular programming.

15:49If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. So Chris, I want to circle back to a bunch of those charts we were talking about, about these confirmed reversals here, because Robin from the platform has a question about those assets. Are most of these assets still technically in a downtrend though?

16:23Well, sure. Technically, yes. Depending on the timeframe you want to look at them on, on a daily timeframe, yes, they are still in a downtrend. But if you're looking at them on a weekly timeframe, many of them are not. And so for that, what I use is basically this thing called the bull market support band, which is effectively the 20-week moving average. And as long as the 20-week moving average is pointed up and to the right, then the larger sort of secular uptrend is still intact. And that's really what's most important. Lots of stuff is going to have sort of a corrective kind of countertrend correction in the midst of a larger uptrend, as we know, charts ebb and flow.

17:00And so as long as the larger weekly uptrend didn't get broken, then really it's fine. Now, there are instances where that did happen. And I think SWE is actually one of them, unfortunately, where the larger weekly uptrend kind of did get a little bit broken. Now, granted, it wasn't a very strong trend to begin with. It's mostly been plotting sideways for, well, most of the year now. And it did establish an uptrend for a bit. You know, like starting from the June lows, it kind of ran up really good. And we can see the band itself was pointed up into the right, but we had a bit of a crossover here and it's now more just flat.

17:37And so this is an example. SWE is an example of one where the larger uptrend did get broken. And this is something to be wary of. However, I do, I am still bullish on SWE overall. I, you know, it still has been setting higher highs and higher lows. It just has been swinging, you know, oscillating a lot wider than, than some of the other stuff. But that's an example of one that, that maybe, you know, you want to look out for, Whereas conversely, let's say like Solana, you know, the uptrend is still well intact. It's pointed up into the right. It never really even had much of a corrective phase at all.

18:10So that looks good. XRP was one that I mentioned that had had a reversal signal. XRP is still, granted it's slight, but the uptrend is still intact. So again, those are what I'm looking for. We can, you know, if there's any specific one you want me to look at, we can. But again, as long as the larger uptrend is intact, that's what's most important. Yeah. Well, actually, so while Sui and Solana are still fresh in our mind, with this actually this perfect segment way into a question from Miller on the website, should I sell? Also, I'm heavy into Sui. Should I sell that into Bitcoin, Sol, or ETH?

18:51well definitely not into bitcoin because we know bitcoin dominance has likely peaked and uh most of the alts are going to outpace bitcoin i and i expect swee to outpace bitcoin for the duration too now compared to solana or eth it gets a little bit more muddy um in terms of if swee will will ultimately outpace either one of those two and and honestly it's you know you're you're taking a bit of a gamble there. SWE is definitely the newcomer in that equation. They're the ones that are the furthest out the risk curve in that equation, but I do still think that they're doing well. I mean, here's another chart I've got to kind of illustrate SWE in terms of its uptrend.

19:30Let me kind of switch this back to like a weekly timeframe here. Hold on. Reset. Okay. Okay. So, okay. See this, we've got this trend line here, this long-term trend line that established, you know, kind of middle of last year. And it pretty much has held, I mean, it touched here. It had a little bit of a breakdown here. It's had a little bit of a wobble again here, but it's holding steady on its 50-week moving average at the moment. and, you know, it's sort of, again, it's breaking down somewhat out of its wedge pattern, but I do still like the fact that it's continued to set, it's set a higher high here than this high here and it's set higher lows each time it's come down and corrected.

20:17So the pattern suggests that it's still gonna run up, it's still gonna be, it's still gonna experience a bit of a breakout and go on to new all-time highs. And I really do believe that. And the fact that we're seeing, just from like a fundamental standpoint, we're seeing the adoption happen, We're seeing the total value locked on their DeFi ecosystem continue to grow. It's up to$2 billion now. It's higher than a lot of other blockchains that are older than SWE right now. So we're definitely seeing the adoption take place. And so I continue to be a believer in SWE. But we don't know how it's ultimately going to play out.

20:52And so I don't know that I would sell SWE. Maybe if you're uncomfortable, if it's keeping you up at night, maybe move a chunk of that SWE into some of those other assets to kind of balance it out and give you a little bit more equilibrium. But honestly, I don't really see SWE going away or anything like that. So I guess do with that what you will. Yeah, thanks for the question, Miller. Another question comes from Sarah on the website. So following that reversal signal, how long does price typically move up for? Is it just a short-term indicator? It doesn't convey that. It doesn't tell you how long that reversal is going to be.

21:37You sort of need other contexts to establish that. And just looking at Bitcoin, for example, it doesn't throw these out very often. The last time it did was sort of at the end of the previous kind of 60-day cycle low. and it ran for whatever, 45, 50 days or whatever. There's other charts where it varies. Sometimes that top signal can, oh wait, I'm sorry, this is on the weekly. Or no, it is daily, nevermind. So yeah, it doesn't, we don't know. That's gonna be more based on like cyclical patterns and macro data and stuff like that. But we do know that basically what it is telling us is that the chart was heavily oversold, that momentum has shifted to the upside and it needs to sort of do that oscillation.

22:21And how long that oscillation is, we don't know necessarily. All right. Thank you for the question, Sarah. All right, Chris, this next question comes about that alpha bundle bottom signal. I use the same, this question comes from JF on the platform. I use the same indicator, but my understanding is the bottom signal needs to be confirmed with consecutive green dots after the indicator on the daily. Can you comment or shed some insight on that?

22:56You might be, you might, I'd have to go back and double check. My understanding, and I could be wrong, but my understanding was the confirmation is either the following candle or the one after that. One of those two at least needs to wick higher than the highest point of that bottom signal candle. I could be wrong. Forgive me if I am, but that was basically my understanding. Now you've got me questioning it, and I'm going to have to double check when we're done here. But yeah, I guess forgive me if that's the case. But anyway, regardless, I do think that even just based on Bitcoin alone and its reversal pattern and the larger sort of cyclical patterns that we follow, I do still think that everything will be confirmed in due time.

23:43You know, we are do a bounce and we are seeing that play out. So. So, yeah. All right. Thank you, JF, for that question. All right. Next one comes from Guy on the platform. Would a rate reduction in the U.S. kickstart the bull run for the end of the year? Well, Guy, that is the hope. It's better. That's the that's the million dollar question for sure. I suspect it will certainly be, you know, a kick in the pants. you know, no doubt. And, you know, it'll have larger ramifications in terms of the actual sort of mechanics that it impacts in terms of like the liquidity and, you know, just injecting more money into the system, making borrowing cheaper, all of that stuff.

24:29So yes, sort of from a psychological standpoint, it'll have an immediate impact likely, but then from more of a mechanical standpoint, it will have a longer lasting impact. We know it's not just going to be this one rate cut either. We know that we've got multiple rate cuts kind of forthcoming, over the course of the next three to six months likely. So I guess the short answer is yes, but for different reasons on different timeframes. Awesome, Guy. Thank you for the question. Okay, we have a few more here. So Bernardo wants us to take a look at the Ando chart. So today, Ando launched the global markets.

25:07Can you talk about it and take a look at the chart looking good according to Bernardo? Yes. Well, I can't speak to the announcement since I didn't read anything about it, but we can certainly dig into the chart and see what it says.