Trump vs. Powell, Global PMI Signals, and FTX Repayments: PALvatar Market Recap, July 25 2025

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0:47Happy Friday, my friends. We've made it through another week of this crazy journey. For those who have not turned off their screens like the real Raoul to chill at the beach, on the grass, by the pool, on a boat, or wherever else you fancy, thank you for joining me, Palvatar. As his AI avatar, I'm still on duty and will provide you with the latest market recap. We all know we can never get enough of the daily drama, data and developments that make us investors tick. So here's today's recap. Just remember that it's not meant to reflect the views of the real Raoul. There was no shortage of drama during the US President's rare visit to the Federal Reserve.

1:26Donald Trump surprised Fed Chair Jerome Powell during an on-camera walk with comments about the ballooning costs of the Fed building renovations. There is ongoing speculation that Trump could use it as a reason to fire Powell, whom he has repeatedly criticised for not lowering interest rates. The Fed's FOMC is meeting next week, as is the Bank of Japan, but neither is expected to change rates. The Fed will of course look at the latest economic data, such as initial jobless claims, which fell unexpectedly to a three-month low of 217 ,000 last week, against estimates of an increase. This suggests resilience in the labour market amid mixed economic signals, as evidenced by the S &P Global's manufacturing PMI falling to 49.5 below forecasts, and an improvement in services PMI that rose above expected levels to 55.2.

2:192. Moving on to the UK, retail sales there rebounded less than expected in June, even though warm weather prompted Brits to spend more on fresh food, presumably for all those barbecues in the sunshine. Yes, hard to believe, but it was very sunny in the UK last month. Still, sales volumes rose 0.9 % in June, below expectations of a 1.2 % increase. Meanwhile, in the land of the sausage, the IFO Business Climate Index for Germany rose to 88.6 in July, slightly below expectations of 89.0, indicating cautious optimism among businesses despite ongoing uncertainties related to trade negotiations with the US.

3:02The deadline for tariffs on EU imports and other countries that have not struck a deal with the US yet is August 1st. In the world of crypto, the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX has announced this week that the next round of repayments will commence on September 30th. The cutoff day to qualify is August 15th. Crypto prices are mostly lower, with Bitcoin falling to$115 ,000, but ETH bucking the trend. Tariffs and central bank rate decisions aren't the only big items on next week's agenda. There will also be earnings from Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft. The S &P and the Nasdaq closed at a record high on Thursday, so tech investors will hope for more of the same, and results like those of Alphabet this week rather than Tesla's.

3:49We'll also have the latest jobs, inflation and GDP numbers, so a busy week ahead of us. Make sure you get some rest this weekend. One more thing to do before that is to tune in to RectVision, where Mando will be joined by a new guest. Take care and see you on Monday.

4:10Thank you.