UK GDP Stalls, Japan Output Drops, and Fed Rate Cut in Focus: PALvatar Market Recap, September 15 2025

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1:34not here, OK? With that said, let's dig into the news. This week will be dominated by central bank actions. The biggest one is obviously the Federal Reserve, but we'll also get rate decisions from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and many others, including Canada, Norway, and Taiwan. The Fed is in a tricky situation, as there are clear signs of a slowdown in the labour market at the same time that inflation continues to be sticky and above the bank's target. According to Moody's leading economic indicator, the US economy has a 48 % probability of slipping into recession within the next year.

2:11The market sees a 25 basis point cut as a certainty, but has all but given up on a 50 point reduction. An American delegation is meeting with its counterpart for a second day of trade talks in Madrid. US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant is present and stated after day one that the two sides are close to reaching an agreement over the ownership of TikTok, but aggressive Chinese demands for trade concessions could hinder it. The app owner, ByteDance, has until Wednesday to divest its US operations, unless an extension is agreed upon. Another potential tech-related contentious point could arise with NVIDIA, after China's market regulator announced today that a preliminary investigation had found the company had violated the country's anti-monopoly law, although details were not released.

2:57Staying with China, its industrial production growth slowed to its weakest pace in a year at just 5.2 % for August, missing expectations. Retail sales and fixed asset investment also fell short of forecast during this period. Another economy facing challenges is France. As predicted, Fitch downgraded its credit rating on Friday to A+. In the crypto land, the London Stock Exchange has announced that it has facilitated the first blockchain transaction on a newly launched digital markets infrastructure platform for private funds. The move comes amid criticism by crypto companies of plans by the Bank of England to limit how much money in stablecoins people in Britain could own.

3:38Meanwhile, the Polkadot DAO has voted to cap the total supply of the DOT token at 2.1 billion. And according to a report in the information, the predictions platform Polymarket is seeking a $9 billion valuation as part of a new deal, a huge jump from$1 billion as recently as June. That's all I've got for you at the minute. Tune in to Andreas and Mikkel on Macro Mondays for a more detailed breakdown of the biggest macro movers this week. Have a good week.