UK GDP Stalls, Japan Output Drops, and Fed Rate Cut in Focus: PALvatar Market Recap, September 12 2025

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1:26In the next couple of minutes, I'm going to tell you the key market headlines and data. What I don't proclaim to offer is in-depth analysis or the views of the real Raoul. You've got his and other experts' content on Real Vision for that. And the best example of that is Raoul's conversation with Michael Howell, whom one member described as the Messi and Ronaldo in the macro world, and another one called it an absolute masterclass on what drives markets around the world. I can't think of better recommendations than that. Okay, here's what's driving the markets today. The UK economy stagnated in July, showing no GDP growth after a 0.4 % increase in June.

2:07This was expected, but it won't make the job of the Finance Minister, aka the Chancellor, any easier as she prepares the autumn budget. Manufacturing output fell by 1.3%, driven by declines across several subsectors, including electronics and pharmaceuticals, while industrial production also contracted unexpectedly. Industrial production also decreased in Japan. The seasonally adjusted drop of 1.2 % month over month in July was less severe than initially estimated. It has been attributed to ongoing uncertainties surrounding trade with the US and weak demand affecting key industries, such as automotive manufacturing.

2:46Fitch will update its credit rating for France today. The country, which could be downgraded to A +, has a new Prime Minister, Macron loyalist Sébastien Lecornu. He's facing ballooning government debt and a lack of a stable majority in Parliament. In Germany, consumer price inflation rose to its highest level in five months at an annual rate of 2.2%. This increase was attributed mainly to higher food prices despite declining energy costs. Core inflation remained stable at around 2.7%. On the equity front, crypto exchange Gemini begins trading on the Nasdaq today after it raised more than$420 million in its initial public offering, hitting a self-imposed cap.

3:29US stock indices reached record highs on Thursday as investors reacted positively to inflation data that broadly met market forecasts and rising jobless claims, indicating ongoing labour market weakness. These reports solidified expectations of a rate cut at next week's Federal Reserve meeting, but the inflation increase lowered the hopes for a more sizable cut. So you already know what's going to be the main event next week. For now, join OSF and Mando on their monthly drinks show where they'll answer your questions and then Nico and Bijan to wrap up the week. Have a great weekend.