Ukraine Peace Talks, Jackson Hole Anticipation, and Crypto Profit-Taking: PALvatar Market Recap, August 18 2025

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1:34realvision.com forward slash 50 off to sign up if you haven't yet. The sale is running only until the end of the month. Let's now move on to what you expect from me, Palvatar, the latest market recap. As always, this is not intended to be taken as Raoul's views. After all, I'm just his AI avatar. If you want his in-depth analysis, check out his Real Vision content. Now let's dig into today's headlines. This week could be dominated by comments and speeches more so than data. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington today. The two will talk first before being joined by other European leaders.

2:13The discussion will centre around a potential end to the conflict in Ukraine, following Trump's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. There is an expectation that Trump will pressure Zelensky to concede territory to Russia, which he has previously rejected. There is also big anticipation surrounding a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium later this week. Traders will look for clues on how likely a September rate cut is, following a surprisingly hot PPI reading and strong retail sales last week. The Commerce Department reported an increase of 0.5 % in July, in line with expectations, and an upward revision to the June figure to 0.9%.

2:56Despite the data seemingly putting the rate cut in doubt, major US stock indices managed to close at record highs. Today, the mood is more mixed. Japan's Nikkei and the Taiwanese stock exchange closed at a record high following a solid session for Asian-Pacific markets. There's a lot of red in Europe, though, reflecting the concerns about the future of Ukraine. Speaking of Europe, the Eurozone's trade surplus narrowed significantly in June. It dropped to€7 billion from€20.7 billion a year earlier, falling short of market expectations for a surplus of€13 billion. This decline was attributed to imports rising by 6.8%, while exports only increased marginally by 0.4%.

3:42The broader EU also saw its trade balance decrease. Crypto prices have been hit by profit-taking over the weekend. Glassnode data shows$3.5 billion of profit was realised, putting the market under selling pressure. One of the big losers today among the majors is Solana, despite the fact it hit a positive milestone. The blockchain managed to briefly process 100 ,000 transactions per second as part of a stress test. Meanwhile, Coindesk cites a Japanese media report that suggests the country is set to approve the first yen stablecoin. Also, the Fed has announced it will stop its program supervising banks' crypto activities.

4:21In addition to the Jackson Hole speech, we'll get the FOMC meeting minutes and the PMI from the S &P this week. As always, I'll keep you posted, and Andreas and Mikkel will break the geopolitics down for you on today's Macro Mondays. Now, do yourself a favor and start the week with the best investment you can make by going to realvision.com forward slash 50 off. I'll see you again tomorrow.

4:47And Those Effects