US GDP Surprise, European Divergence, and Pro-Crypto SEC Shift: PALvatar Market Recap, July 30 2025

0:05Today's video is sponsored by FIGA, the largest non-bank home equity loan lender in the US with over$15 billion unlocked on their lending platform. They're now in the crypto-backed loan space and offering industry low interest rates when you use your Bitcoin as collateral to get cash. Access interest rates starting at 9.9%, the lowest fixed rate in the industry at 50 % LTVs. Whether you're funding a major purchase like a down payment on a home, investing in new opportunities, or even buying more Bitcoin, FIGURE makes it straightforward and transparent. Visit figure.com forward slash realvision or click on my link below to take out a Bitcoin-backed loan with Vigor today.

0:47Are you ready? Have you got your running gear on? We're about to enter what Reuters has called a, quote, three-day obstacle course for the US economy, so you better be prepared. I'll be your personal trainer, making sure you stay focused on the goal, staying up to date with the key headlines without getting distracted by the noise. Thank you for enlisting the services of Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, to help you on your investing journey. There's just one condition. Don't treat this as the views of the real Raoul. For his in-depth analysis, you need to upgrade your training program by checking out his content on the Real Vision website.

1:24Now, let's get into our set. Today's theme is GDP. No time to lose, so let's start with the big one. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3 % from April through June, after it declined 0.5 % in the first quarter. That's way ahead of expectations, and was fuelled by increased consumer spending and a massive fall in imports, which subtract from the GDP number. Spending rose 1.4 % in the second quarter, and imports plunged 30.3 % after a surge in Q1 when producers tried to get ahead of the tariffs. Within the GDP report, we also got a measure of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE for short, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric.

2:11It showed a gain of 2.1 % for the quarter, just above the central bank's 2 % target. Core PCE inflation, which the Fed considers a better gauge for longer-run trends as it excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.5%. We'll get the latest official number for June tomorrow, so we'll repeat the set then. Keep up as we've got one other piece of important US economic data today, the private payrolls from ADP. They rose by 104 ,000 in July, more than expected and recovering from a fall of 33 ,000 in June. A more comprehensive jobs report will be released by the US Labor Department on Friday, so the workout will continue.

2:52Staying with GDP but moving to Europe, the French economy showed signs of recovery with a 0.3 % quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2, surpassing expectations and marking the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2024. This was primarily driven by inventory changes and an uptick in household consumption, which rose unexpectedly by 0.6 % month-on-month in June, despite prior market forecasts predicting a decline. In contrast, Germany's economic performance faltered as it contracted by 0.1 % quarterly during the same period after previously experiencing a slight expansion. This aligned with market predictions, but reflected ongoing concerns about the German economy's fragility.

3:38Much of the recent uncertainty came down to the trade war, and we have more developments on that front. President Donald Trump has written on social media that the US will impose a 25 % tariff on imports from India on August 1st, dashing hopes of any last-minute deal. This follows the conclusion of trade talks between the US and China in Stockholm without a breakthrough. However, US officials signalled they could still agree to extend the tariff pause beyond the August 12th deadline. OK, let's now stretch out to crypto. A highly anticipated report by a working group set up by the White House is expected today.

4:15It will outline the administration's priorities and policy ideas. Ash Bennington is interviewing two members of that group. that interview will be released for pro members. We've also had a pivotal shift by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which has approved in-kind redemptions for all Bitcoin and Etherspot ETFs. This means that institutions will be able to redeem shares in the ETFs for the underlying cryptocurrency, rather than just cash, as was previously the case. This marks the first big pro-crypto policy change by the new SEC chair, Paul Atkins. Now breathe, you've made it to the end of a gruelling set of headlines.

4:52There's more to come later today with the Fed's decision on interest rates and earnings from the likes of Microsoft and Meta after the bell. Get some rest and I'll see you again tomorrow.