US Jobless Claims, Eurozone Lending Surprise, and Crypto Volatility: PALvatar Market Recap, September 25 2025

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1:34success or disaster, depending on how you look at it. So don't be philistine and catch up if you missed it. But that's not all. Raoul is back today, probably a little hungover, with Julian Bittle for an epic presentation where they give an update on their Everything Code thesis. That's going to be available for free, so they're clearly feeling extra generous. Don't miss it if you want to know what they're thinking of the long-term macro picture. My job is to focus on the daily, so here's what's standing out in market news. We're starting in the US, where there's a parade of Fed officials speaking today, with traders going through their speeches with a fine-toothed comb to look for hints of dovishness or hawkishness.

2:14No doubt both will be looking at the latest initial jobless claims, which came in well below expectations. The number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance fell to a seasonally adjusted 218 ,000 in the week ending September 20th. This will likely add to the cautiousness shown by some Fed governors on future rate cuts. Continuing claims were little changed in a sign that hiring remains weak, but layoffs are not rampant either. There was also a surprise bounce in US durable goods orders, which rose 2.9 % month over month in August, despite analysts expecting a fall. Last but not least, a third estimate shows the US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 3.8 % in the second quarter of this year, much higher than 3.3 % in the second estimate.

3:01This marks the strongest performance since the third quarter of 2023. Attention will now turn to the latest PCE numbers tomorrow. Moving to the Eurozone, new data shows a positive trend in bank lending, with household credit growth rising by 2.5 % year-on-year in August, surpassing expectations of 2.3%. This increase reflects ongoing recovery efforts supported by recent policy easing from the European Central Bank, and is complemented by business loans growing at an even higher rate of 3%. In Germany, consumer sentiment, unlike the business confidence I brought up yesterday, has shown improvement.

3:41GFK's consumer climate indicator rose to minus 22.3 for October, better than expected, and reflecting enhanced income outlooks, despite declining economic expectations overall due to geopolitical concerns and inflation fears. Crypto prices have taken another hit, with ETH falling below$4 ,000 for the first time since early August, and SOL below$200, round-tripping to where it was three weeks ago. Against this backdrop, the Financial Times reports that USDC stablecoin issuer Circle is exploring the idea of reversible transactions, a potentially controversial move given crypto's ethos. It's a big day for another stablecoin company.

4:23Plasma's mainnet beta has gone live today alongside its native token, XPL. The stablecoin frenzy has also led nine European banks to team up and launch a euro-denominated stablecoin that's compliant with Mika, the EU crypto regulation, in the second half of next year. Speaking of regulation, the Australian government has revealed new plans which would require crypto exchanges to hold financial services licenses to operate in the country. That's all I've got for you today. The Everything Code is the required viewing today, but we've got lots of other great content for you on the Real Vision website.

4:58Stay classy and see you tomorrow.