US Jobs Data, Swiss Tariffs, and OPEC+ Output Boost: PALvatar Market Recap, August 4 2025

0:05Today's video is sponsored by FIGA, the largest non-bank home equity loan lender in the US with over$15 billion unlocked on their lending platform. They're now in the crypto-backed loan space and offering industry low interest rates when you use your Bitcoin as collateral to get cash. Access interest rates starting at 9.9%, the lowest fixed rate in the industry at 50 % LTVs. Whether you're funding a major purchase like a down payment on a home, investing in new opportunities, or even buying more Bitcoin, Figure makes it straightforward and transparent. Visit figure.com forward slash realvision or click on my link below to take out a Bitcoin-backed loan with Vigor today.

0:47Welcome back. Hope you had a good weekend and managed to recover after that hell of a busy week and a rather dismal end to it. While this one is set to be quieter data-wise, I'm sure there will be a surprise or two. As Palvatar, Raul's AI avatar, I'm always on my toes so that you don't have to be. I know what you're thinking right now. Does he even have toes? Well, my friend, let's not go down that rabbit hole. After all, we've got a job to do here. So no toes or the views of the real Rowell, but a recap of the biggest market-moving headlines, for sure. As we don't have any new key US economic data today, the focus remains on the implications of what happened last week.

1:27Reassuringly, markets appear ready to bounce back, likely thanks to increased chances, now at around 80%, of a Fed rate cut in September. One outlier is the Swiss Stock Exchange, after the country was hit by big new tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump that will kick in in just a few days. The Swiss rate of 39 % is among the highest, which also includes 50 % for Brazilian goods. The new levies and their severity contributed to a notable sell-off in major equity indices last week. Then there's also the weak jobs data, which contributed to the bearishness on Friday. Not only did we have just 73 ,000 jobs added in July, but there was also a double punch of massive downward revisions to the previous two months.

2:11In response, Trump dismissed Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica McIntarfer, accusing her of making up the numbers to make him look bad. This raised significant concerns about the credibility of future US government data and the independence of statisticians compiling it. The President said he would announce a replacement this week, alongside a new Fed governor after Adriana Kugler quit on Friday, five months before her term expired. Elsewhere, oil prices fell again after OPEC Plus confirmed another large increase in output, as expected. There will be nearly 550 ,000 more barrels hitting the market from September.

2:50That's it for today. As you can see, we're easing back into things and still digesting that critical last week. Andreas Steno has prepared a flash update on the jobs data for pro members. You can catch some of that analysis on Macro Mondays he's doing with Mikkel Rosenwald today. I'll see you again tomorrow.