US Jobs Slump, Fed Cut Odds, and Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade: PALvatar Market Recap, December 04 2025

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1:08Good to see you, my friends. We hope you're enjoying all the content we've provided this week. We have a lot of new members and have been humbled by some of the extremely positive feedback. Keep it coming. We love to see it. We've got more good stuff for you today, including a journeyman conversation between Raoul and Mert Mumtaz. I mean the real Raoul, of course. I'm just his AI twin called Palvatar. I'll fill you in on the latest developments in the markets in just a moment, but I cannot not mention Andreas Steno's interview with Michael Howell today. That's a must-watch, available on Alpha.

1:45Okay, just remember that what follows does not equal the views of the real Raoul. Here goes. Global stocks are mostly green after weak US private jobs data kept the fire of an impending rate cut burning. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates next week are steady at 90 % after the ADP report showed a surprising decline in private sector employment by 32 ,000 jobs in November. This was the biggest drop in two and a half years. The dollar was set for its 10th consecutive day of declines against major currencies, marking the longest such streak in 50 years. The Nikkei rallied more than 2.3 % following a successful Japanese bond auction.

2:30Speaking of bonds, the Financial Times reports that some big investors have expressed concern to the US Treasury that Kevin Hassett, the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell at the Fed, would aggressively cut rates to please President Trump. In terms of other economic data, the US services sector expanded in November. The Purchasing Managers Index by S &P Global slowed to 54.1 from 55 in November, but the reading by ISM increased from 52.4 to 52.6, slightly ahead of expectations. A reading above 50 means expansion. Meanwhile, Eurozone retail sales were flat in October, falling short of expectations for growth.

3:12Additionally, Germany's and France's construction PMIs rebounded but remained well below growth levels reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector across Europe. In the UK, car sales declined in November, indicating potential weaknesses in consumer spending. On the flip side, the S &P Global UK Composite PMI for November came in at 51.2, much better than analysts' expectations of 50.5. The surprise boosted the value of the pound, which was on course for the best day since May. Looking at currencies, but with the crypto prefix, Ethereum is in the spotlight today after successfully undergoing a hard fork called Fusaka last night.

3:54The main upgrades are reduced fees on layer twos and a higher block gas limit. In other bullish news, Bank of America has recommended to its wealth management clients to allocate up to 4 % to crypto. The bank's strategists will start analysing four Bitcoin ETFs in January. And the prediction markets have a new competitor, with CZ highlighting the launch of Predict.Fun on the BNB chain. One of the biggest platforms in this space, Calci, has raised$1 billion at a valuation of$11 billion earlier this week. OK, boys and gals, that's all I've got for you today. Take care and see you tomorrow.

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