Will July Bring Crypto Fireworks? | OSF and Mando | REKT Vision

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2:08That's A-X-E-L-A-R, a gateway to open finance. Hello, guys. Welcome back to another 4th of July episode of Wrecked Vision. I'm here again with OSF. No holidays in Europe. No holidays. No holidays ever, but we're back. We're back. And the market's been, I guess, a bit mixed, I would say, this week. It really felt like maybe in the last 48 hours, we got very close to all-time highs again, and everything felt a little bit sendy. and then we've seemingly gone a little bit lower over the last few hours. How have you been, Osef? I think we have to address the elephant in the room that you've also been on a personal mission, it looks like, this week and got a pretty leery tattoo.

2:55So this is our first conversation since you said tattoo, actually. I just saw the photos of it. Are you ready to show it off to the audience yet? It's like a tattoo reveal. It feels like it, right? it's like your parents yeah okay here we go i got this yesterday it was very it was a very painful day but i have a fully fledged yeah tiger just on my chest now this isn't your first one either right it's not my first one yeah this is my fourth i think uh it's definitely the biggest one i have for sure this one was the most painful you think yeah like i did have one second one I got was sort of like kind of on my ribs and that was quite bad but it was kind of a bit more like shading on the ribs whereas this was like obviously like quite a lot like line work and solid colors on the on your sternum and it was very painful it was definitely really painful it was just like I would say I would go as far as saying this is the most painful thing I've ever done and it was it took like nine hours the whole thing was like nine hours basically in one go so why are the tiger are there i mean your your parents are originally from bangladesh it's a bengal tiger yeah yeah yeah of course they're bengal tigers yeah yeah um wow yeah i'm just reading about them now awesome okay so this is like your uh homage it's quite yeah it's quite a significant change in my appearance because it's now also visible if i just wear a shirt hadn't really like thought about that i came home yesterday i was just like what you know what and i was like oh yeah this is how i look now so which is is actually a common summer look for you which is a common yeah i do like i do like the two or three buttons down in the summer but it's yeah it's a significant vibe shift in my appearance um yeah which i hadn't really hadn't really considered because if i wear a t-shirt you can't really see it so um it changes that are you going to get like neck tattoos yet I think neck's a bit strong I think with this as long as like if I ever have to do I mean I rarely have to do anything that's serious enough for me to like have to dress seriously but sometimes you do you never really know so at least like with this I'm kind of fine but as soon as it's on the neck it's 100 % visible all the time right like I'm pretty sure if I turn up to some maybe turn up to some nice golf clubs and I just have like a big neck tattoo they're going to be like yeah hmm Yeah, you're kind of burning the bridges on a route back to an investment bank if it all goes pear-shaped, aren't you?

5:33I literally have zero chance. If it all goes pear-shaped, there's zero chance I will ever get hired again by an investment bank. Not just on my appearance, but many, many things.

5:48There's probably a few clips from these things I could put up and just be like, oh, we can't hire someone like this who's consistently commenting on his balls and lovely summers of risk. why is this guy always saying his balls deep into stuff like it's just unhirable now we might as well get you a neck tap

6:11okay well big week for you clearly on that but I have to say the market's been pretty sideways going into this 4th of July I think there's a lot of hope from the American contingent that this would be all time highs America Day and we got very close again uh i think we got to just just above 110k actually kind of where we went um in early june or mid-june when we kind of approached all-time highs it was a little bit worrying that it does kind of set up this like lower highs lower lows pattern uh maybe that could that that could continue for if you if you kind of zoom out it kind of looks a little bit like a um a decreasing channel there uh since kind of the middle of may so i think there's a little bit of worry there there's two real reasons i guess why we sold off firstly crypto didn't necessarily love the passing of this big beautiful bill it seemed which has been kind of the main thing happening in in washington it seems like it's passed both the senate and the house now and there's a lot of worry about budget deficits, that this could lead to higher bond yields, and that could lead to a little bit of worry, a little bit of wobble, let's say, in risk markets.

7:31And then secondly, there was an$8 billion Bitcoin whale that woke up this morning on the 4th of July and decided to ruin everyone's day and decided to send his assets to exchanges. How are you feeling on your, let's say, 0 to 10 bullishness at the moment? have you done anything over the last couple of weeks or at least last week or sort of chilled yeah I've sort of chilled last week not done much last week it's yet another attempt at breaking through the Bitcoin all time high and then getting rejected at that at that resistance level and all the commentary is around right now is around like old Bitcoin whales selling and obviously have that movement of coins today from that wallet that hasn't done anything since 2011 or whatever it is.

8:24So it seems like it's going to take a lot for us to break through this level. I still think it will happen. I think we're just going to go back and we're in this very clearly defined channel now. And when we get to that resistance level, the people who are selling still seem to want to sell. So we have to somehow absorb that supply and then before we can rate forward or push forward. But I think it's a good sign. I think it's clear to me with the way TradFi has been trading. And even we had the payrolls number, which I guess wasn't what people were hoping for in terms of the rate cut narrative.

9:02But we sold off and then we still bounced back in terms of risk assets. So it still feels like to me the market wants to rally here. And we're just like maybe like one bad payrolls number, like bad in inverted commas bad payrolls number away from a rally or you know one dovish fomc away from a big rally i don't really i don't really know what it will be but it just feels like the market wants to rally here is is my hunch um on the crypto side we have to get past this 110k or what we're 9.5k resistance or whatever it is but my view is eventually something's going to happen that's big enough where people think okay i'm not gonna i'm not gonna sell there anymore oh, I'm going to let it run.

9:46And it seems like we're getting closer and closer to that, I think. I don't know if you would agree with this, but I've found the market the most schizophrenic, at least the core crypto community, that I've probably seen since kind of peak bear market. It's like on the down days, everyone thinks everything is going to absolute zero, it feels like. It's like, oh, everyone's going to move on to stocks. with the product market fit's not there like we're going to zero and then on the good days it's like oh my god we're going to tokenize 100 trillion dollars of assets we're going to the moon i i haven't seen this little belief in the long-term prospects for crypto in a long long time i don't know if like if you felt that too i think just this concept of rwa is coming on chain has fundamentally challenged, I think, a lot of things in crypto and the investment thesis for a number of different things.

10:50So the idea of like no revenue, no problem, again, it seems to be like a bit of a worry. And then are we even trying to create currencies here? Are we trying to create competing sort of on-chain companies, let's say, and tokens like equities? that seems to have been like a real fundamental shift at the same time like because bitcoin dominance has just stayed up and to the right pretty much this whole this whole cycle like this is very little long-term belief even in popular l1s like you know eith soul sui i would say right now probably the eith community feels the maybe the most um happy i've seen it in in a number of months but for most other l1s it's like it is this real sense of like it's oh it's so over and it is really surprising to me with bitcoin where it is um what do you make of that like like on a day like today everyone's like ready to give up it feels like and it just seems so crazy to me that yesterday everyone was like oh my god max risk i think it's it's not too dissimilar to what happened last summer it's it's the summer chop you know like don't forget for the for global financial markets summer is usually a quiet time and people go off to you know nantucket or the hamptons for the whole summer and kind of just like switch off from markets right but when you're a professional individual crypto trader or a trench warrior you're still doing this shit day in day out but what people fail to realize is you still need global markets to make big moves for it to even affect stuff at the crypto level and if it's not happening then things will get stuck into this like channel where we'll just kind of trade and nothing's really happening so i think we're so used to the ball in crypto we're always like something happened something happened like you know big crash or big rally and sometimes you do we had this actually very often we had these periods of very low vols like by crypto terms low volatility and nothing really happens and last summer was no different remember the last summer we just chopped the ages around that what was it like the 58k to 65k range for like two or three months or something like that um and i think it was the same thing like every time we dropped to 57k like zor and cole would be all over the timeline it's like oh we're going to like 10k and every time we went 65k people would be like oh we're going to straight to 100 and then nothing really happened until you know the trump stuff took off and then um we went higher again so i think in my opinion this is not too dissimilar i think there's a very clear flaw to bitcoin which seems to be around 100k doesn't seem like we're gonna fall many people below 100k right now um even if shit hits the fan and you know shit was hitting the fan quite substantially we still didn't even fall much particularly below 100k and the ceiling is very clearly 110k because there are some very big sales there so um if you're sitting there like desperately hoping for some vol which is what seems like most of ct is then you seem to have you had this like you know massive diversion and you know bipolarness and views but the reality is we're probably going to chop until um while these things break um i still i'm personally bullish for the summer.

14:18I think we're very close to breaking through this $110K level. I still believe in the lovely summer of risk. Obviously, that's my main thesis. So I think we're close to breaking through that$110K level. And I also think even if we don't, even for $100K to$110K, remember, lack of volatility in Bitcoin or majors tends to bring on some big moves in other stuff because people just get bored and run out of other stuff. And that's when you had that big Pepe move in 2023. And then you had like a lot of meme coin stuff in 2024. So, you know, a lack of ultrasonic Bitcoin does mean there's probably going to be other stuff out there that will start moving massively, massively higher.

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16:02Yeah, I mean, I hope. I hope. I've just been really shocked by it. like it really it's gone it's gone beyond like we're waiting for an altcoin season to just this feeling of just like oh maybe we've actually missed the bow here what is your take on this whole tokenized stocks versus um tokens here because i think this is this is now the crux of the existential crisis it feels like for a number of traders in this space which is just that on a bad day, let's say everything is down what happened with Israel and Iran or what happened with the trade deal are you buying tokenized Nvidia stock or are you buying Farcoin?

16:49Do you think that that's now there is some validity to this worry that suddenly a lot of things in crypto are under threat it's a good question one thing i would say is it's quite nice to have your pool of capital all in one place and being able to trade everything i think a problem that i've had and maybe anyone's moving around large sums of money is like if you want to quickly buy stocks and you want to move it from stables into stocks it takes you a while to off-ramp and then send fiat and then send it to your broker and have them execute it like it's a slow market and also it's not 24 7 and then also vice versa if you have money in stocks you want to put crypto like you know if you thankfully don't live in the uk anymore if you're in the uk and you have to on-ramp into crypto is very very difficult now so moving around like that kind of money um is difficult whereas like you know if you have like all the big stocks that you can now trade in jupiter and you have a pool of stable sitting there i think i would you know like i think if it was back in like april where i kind of felt like stocks were quite a good buy i probably would have bought stuff like tesla and video all that stuff that was down a lot because that stuff does have actually like pretty good beta to the market similar return profiles actually to meme coins but also like you know the sharp ratio of that stuff must be way higher than many coins in the last, in over a two-year time frame or something like that.

18:20So I actually think it's pretty cool. I would, I am someone who, now they're not available in the UK, I believe. They're not available in the US. They're not available in some jurisdictions. So kind of like depends where you live, obviously. But I do feel like this is a product that I will use. And also I do think this is what things will be eventually because the beauty of crypto is it's 24-7 and it just will create this 24-7 market in stocks. which I think is good because right now people use, you know, weekend headline news, people use Bitcoin to express views on the market and now you can actually trade it, do it in the stocks themselves.

18:57I think it's pretty interesting. And also, you know, like stocks are usually T plus two sentiment. This is instant. You get the risk on straight away. Obviously you don't own equity in it. They're derivatives, I guess, but if you're just trying to trade it. T plus two? I don't know. I assume so. Yeah. The actual stocks must be T plus two, right? I actually don't know. I would have assumed that then they aren't, but maybe they are. It must be. Maybe I'm wrong on that. I thought everything had moved to T. I know for fixed income, right? It moves to like T plus one or T plus one. Yeah. All right.

19:34Anyway, that was a small trading point there. Yeah. Look, I think maybe it's also a breakdown how this conversation has happened a little bit this week. So we had, as you just said, there's now ways, particularly outside of the U.S., for you to buy U.S. stocks on chain or via a centralized exchange. So we've had Robinhood made a very big announcement earlier this week at ETC, which is one of the main Ethereum conferences in Cannes. And they have partnered with Arbitrum to build a, I think it's basically the foothills of their own chain, essentially. But it's a way for you to buy tokenized stocks as well as do some perp trading, particularly in Europe.

20:26and they offered tokenized open AI and tokenized a few other like seed stage or like pre-IPO rather stage companies as well. It's this new market for that. They got some pushback from it by open AI, but they're kind of sticking to their guns and saying, you know, we're still able to do this. They're issuing what they call mirror tokens, which would only really convert to the actual stock for these pre-IPO companies in certain scenarios, including actually going to an IPO. But it does feel as though we're now starting to see that on chain. Then we saw Jupiter partner, well, actually it was Radium and Jupiter partner with a firm that's going to bring several major, some of the biggest tech stocks.

21:15Basically, you're able to buy them actually on chain. So that's not pre-IPO. So things like Tesla alongside NVIDIA, all like the magnificent seven plus extras. And then you've seen Bybit do something similar, Kraken do something similar. This was a big, big week for tokenized real world assets, tokenized stocks coming on chain.

21:41This is the thing. I think there is some, what you just said is the exact thing. Like I think people underestimate how much money, particularly millennials and like Gen X, have on in crypto of their net worth and the ease of now that you can buy everything i think we may see a little bit of a retrenchment from this um token proliferation that we basically saw over the last since pump fun launched really right where you know this is hundreds of thousands of coins like i do think suddenly it feels as though people are probably not going to buy the long tail of coins as much and i don't think that's a bad thing i don't think it's a bad thing for crypto but i do think that it has kind of crystallized that a lot of altcoins are never going to come back for a lot of people here particularly those without revenue without product market fit and it would just kind of held up at a high valuation and and there was there was just a question about whether they were actually like why it was ever trading there well if you can buy a a company that is generating revenue and particularly on those bad days you know like if the market's dying or it's ripping and it's often macro driven i do think that people will look to trade these things more than they trade some of these old coins so i that that to me does point to maybe bitcoin dominance i don't know if it's bitcoin dominance because i don't know i don't know how long that tail is and what percentage of the market really is still left in it but i do think that that trend of let's say the coins outside of the top 50 will probably continue to drift away from the coins inside of the top 50 this is the thing because you've had this whole internet capital markets narrative right and now it's like well if you can actually trade private stocks on chain what's the point in internet capital markets and with internet with the current form of solana internet capital or whatever it is that believe app to me and i could be wrong it seems like 75 of them are all rugs or just like extortion project projects and that's because there's no real rules in terms of securities offerings and that kind of stuff when they do these the stuff but obviously a stock that trades on chain still has to go through sec regulation and so you know it's a security so the only difference is you can trade on chain so at least you know like the stuff that you're trading aren't i shouldn't say they're not bad projects because you can get bad stocks that can still go to zero but at least you know they're not like going to be instant pump and dumps and that kind of stuff so that's one thing i would say um

24:46do you like yeah okay go ahead i do like the pre-ipo stuff i actually think that that is is a really interesting new frontier here because i think there's a lot of people that I've wanted to make that market very liquid for a long time. And it does suddenly feel like crypto might be the best way to do it. We've already seen a little bit of a clash this week about where incentives to this sort of stuff might get broken down. So like Robinhood at this presentation earlier this week said, hey, you're going to buy tokenized OpenAI stock. it's in this mirror form but basically they said you know it's it's gonna it's it's gonna be give returns very similar to that when they when the ipo opening i had to come out midweek and basically say look this isn't our stock we have to pre-approve anyone who does this uh transfer um don't listen to robin hood robin hood since came back in that and said no it's not exactly a stock we do have custody of them but it's only a mirror token there's only actually a transfer when uh if they ipo or in certain other scenarios for open ai they probably they probably don't want their their stock trading it really depends on the performance right there's a lot of sensitivity around these sort of evaluations for these companies pre and ipo right like imagine imagine Imagine WeWork ahead of an IPO if they had done this.

26:23And you have SoftBank telling everyone it's at$10 billion. And all the bankers telling everyone it's at$10 billion is trading it on Robinhood pre-IPO at like$500 million. It's going to be, which I don't have a problem with. I actually think that leads to more efficient markets, which I like. but i do think there's going to be this like clash between do you want your your equity to be put into these sort of markets from the companies it's definitely not a slam dunk but there will be a lot of incentive i think from vcs or a lot of vcs to kind of liquidate maybe part of their risk uh these sort of entities as well so if i'm sitting there a a16z i'm probably thinking this could be a nice way to exit half the portfolio to lps and then just raise more cash right what was the deal with the open ai stuff then i'm not sure i like fully understood when when they launched open ai and spacex my assumption was that they had like agreements with them for the ip i guess or something like that and they had figured out what like some value like you know maybe they launched at the valuation of the last round or like that that's what i assumed it was but it seems like it's just is it just like so it's not actual equity it's just a ticker that like derives from it like what actually is it and why did it now refute it what is what is it that you're trading well that's the thing you're not taking over it's basically an equity forward i would call it it's not it's almost a derivative you're not oh you can't derivative basically yeah you can't own the stock uh at this stage and open air is right like if a if a if shares transfer pre-ipo that they normally have to get some sort of signature from the company to be able to do that because there's a lot of sensitivity about people who owns the company pre-in ipo and again like making sure that the the the shares don't get into loose hands and drive down the valuation like this is this has been a heavily protected part of the market for investment banking fees and companies alike like they definitely want to be out of control of the narrative going into their own ipo and this this could potentially take some of that power away from them but it seemingly they're going to take custody of them in a vehicle so they don't go anywhere um and then they would convert to being actual equity at a sale or an IPO or some other more downward scenarios if they went bankrupt or something like that.

28:56That's where it's kind of at. Which I think is the best... I think that's as far as you're going to get with this. There's no way you could actually have them actually trading the shares. The two interesting ones are going to be things like SpaceX, OpenAI. There's a few other big ones. I mean, Stripe obviously is famously one of the biggest companies pre-IPO in Silicon Valley. And there's going to be a few others, I think, that might come to market here. So, and it doesn't have to have the company's approval. You know, it just has to have one shareholder. It has to have someone like A16Z or one of the other major, not just crypto investment firms, but broader tech investment firms to say, hey, we're going to liquidate part of our portfolio here.

29:42And you can get access to a bunch of pretty cool things. it feels like. So I do think this is going to have traction. And the Robin Hood presentation is worth watching. It was actually very good. And it very much gives the sense that they're kind of all in. Just a few years after, you know, the whole everyone hates Robin Hood after they delisted GameStop and then they delisted Solana. It wasn't really their fault, but was it? Like they had to SEC. Well, I'm just saying they didn't have a lot of friends, I would say, in the career community a couple of years ago. and then they really have gone kind of more all in.

30:21Very iconic presentation, would you not say? The lovely backdrop. Yeah, he's dressed immaculately. I have to say, definitely had a lot of envy slash big man crush on Vlad Tenev there. I thought it was very... He wears his suit well. Very suave. Very suave. um yeah you kind of get the you get that sort of the little neck scarf thing yeah yeah oh yeah he had a wardrobe going into it or had a good stylist it feels like going into it apparently the event was like boiling hot as well so there's a lot of he's not even he's not even there's not one drop of sweat on him it's incredible right and he's he's he's active he's active he's like drawing on the whiteboard and everything.

31:10It's not like it's just sitting down. Is there a link between you getting the manly tattoo and watching that as a presentation? You just thought, wow, I need to up my game here when there are men like that in the world. I would be lying if I didn't imagine myself one day in Cannes with a linen jacket like himself and maybe three buttons down on my shirt talking about... just the head of the poking out with it with a with a blackboard just you know drawing random things yeah that's that's like a life goal for me actually we can make it happen we can make it happen you know maybe maybe that's where the rect annual shareholder meeting should should take place at the rost villa in in the south of france somewhere uh wow yeah we should definitely do that that is that is proper company goals and he was smart you know like you have to you have to we'll have to we'll have to improve your presentation skills you know like your ability to write on a whiteboard that well i feel like that also takes quite a lot of skill to be able to be there yeah he's rehearsed he's rehearsed this many times hasn't he it's just too it's too smooth too perfect too perfect yeah so yeah i also agree there was a lot of man crushing from the crypto community after that.

32:31He did a very good job and has now become a bit of an icon, I think, in the crypto community as being our new fearless leader who's going to take us into even deeper tradfied trenches, let's say, for crypto. But yeah, that's been the main story, I would say, this week. Before it was like stable coins and treasury companies. This has accelerated. It's mainly outside of the US but the story um and the narrative around it has accelerated a lot i think people were expecting that more to be a second half of the year story and perhaps not this early in the second half like i think they thought we need to wait for tokenization legislation coming out of washington before people would try this but it feels as though we're going to try in europe as the sandbox for everything and when the u.s is ready it'll it'll just port straight over to the u.s so it does feel like we are we're going to see a lot of this now and um yeah i don't know bitcoin dominance it's just kind of stayed up where it is about 56 percent so far i think ethan solana kind of kept pace at least with bitcoin oh wow well we're getting a little bit of a weak day actually today wow like things are really not liking this bitcoin while i was selling are they a bit of a liquid weekend i think you've got to think right when something like that happens like that movement of bitcoin you know that the market's going lower like i didn't do any trades but i was off my desk but i kind of would have probably taken a short bitcoin there for a scalp kind of thing but you know that like things are going to tell off and you just think because this is so controlled by all these like old school whales surely they can all be like okay let's all go short harry you go move your one bill of bitcoin and then like billy and bob you just start selling your bitcoin then we all just like make those money and then we'll find a floor and then bid it all up again like surely that's what they're doing right of course of course it's like You would never, ever in a million years wake up after however many years, over a decade of only Bitcoin and not choose.

34:55The 4th of July is not the day that you would choose unless you're trying to cause the market to really sell off. So I think obviously it's a gamesmanship, right? This is clearly the worst day of the year possibly to sell whatever it is,$8 billion. I mean, whoever this is, this isn't their only Bitcoin, right? like they they must own bitcoin and other wallets etc but i saw some i kind of lost it now but i was reading something about someone speculating on how it was the cia and then like all this other all these other like crazy theories but um it's an interesting it's an interesting thought because there's people out there who own billions of dollars of bitcoin and we don't really know who they are like they could just be random whales in the middle of nowhere but it could also be like institutional type stuff that we're not aware of so it's kind of um i don't know if we'll ever get to the bottom of it but it's pretty i find it pretty interesting and when you you know we sit here talking about like bitcoin dominance and the m2 chart and you know markets and all this kind of stuff like oh you know it's gonna move it's gonna go down at the end of the day like one person with that set of private keys can just can influence the entire thing but like based on their actions which may even may even not be even selling or buying bitcoin much to be transferring bitcoin out of one wallet to another so um so if you have if you're when you see that stuff if you have a sort of like existential crisis which is like i don't even i don't even know if everything that i talk about i think is even relevantly more and when that much can be controlled by just like a handful of people basically yeah i mean it feels just a bit like you kind of know what's going on on these sort of weekends having been around crypto for as long for now enough time you kind of know when games are being played and I would probably guess that by Sunday we'll just kind of be where we were at the start of the weekend just because people know they can play games over a long weekend and no one's going to get in their way So definitely one of those this week.

37:09There was a bit more of an extension of the Bitcoin treasury stuff. I think the main thing that happened was a bit more of a resurgence in the ETH narrative, let's say, around this. So you saw Tom, who is a pretty prominent market analyst, big calls over the years on microstrategy or strategy now and Bitcoin. and works for Fundstrat, is now going to be the CEO or the chairman of an ETH strategy, an ETH accumulation company, let's call it like that, called Bitmine, which originally was a Bitcoin mining company, but then it's since shifted into this. And he's got a lot of airtime, basically. over the last week or so and seemingly as this has been like a 30x since it's announced which we've seen a few of these recently but but the eth ones had disappointed until now and then suddenly there's this belief that this could be the um this could be the one with enough momentum to kind of do the microstrategy or strategy trade here for ETH.

38:33And it's not just been that, right? Like this is some of these crypto-related stocks, or strategies, circle, hood, like this is where people are paying attention. And there's no doubt in my mind it's sucking attention away as well for the rest of crypto. But what did you make of this? Because there's two of these now. There's obviously Tom Lee's and then there's Joe Lubins, which I think we announced kind of SBET back in the day. So there's two of them, Sharp, Gaming, and then now there's Tom Lee one. Do you think these could be interesting plays, either of those? i mean

39:20some top down something that quite clearly is happening right now is companies are buying bitcoin as treasury assets and that is the start of just generally lots of people in the world owning some form of bitcoin as part of their balance sheet part of their portfolio part their treasury whatever it is um i think ethereum co-founders have realized that there's a chance to put ETH in that category and have that also as an asset that people everyone just generally owns as part of their balance sheet um so I think that's the reason behind Sharpling that's the reason um behind what Tom Lee is doing as well which I put behind Bitmine um it kind of like doesn't feel like that organic to me it's not like you know Michael Saylor has been doing this for for years and years and years and now everyone sort of buys into it ETH I think is a very different asset to bitcoin but you have to think it's positive for eth because at the end of the day it's creating demand for it which is going to be held on a balance sheet as sort of like a long-term hold type thing and it's taking supply off the market and if at some point eth does well and i think i still think it will do like i still we've spoken about eth as a potential as a favored long of ours over the next few weeks and months i think if eth eth outperforms bitcoin if you get eth btc rising from where it is now and we get like a 50 or 100 out performance then i think this stuff looks it suddenly makes these guys look like geniuses right because then it's like oh well everyone was buying bitcoin in the balance sheet these guys created these eth vehicles and now ethers has like doubled that of bitcoin in terms of performance and then it will create this any the eth etf is out there as well and eventually we'll have like um eth etf with yield so i think it will then create it's sort of like sowing the seeds of like okay shit now everyone will see also not only do we need to own bitcoin but we also have to own eth and that i think is the what they're trying to set up here which could be interesting but my view is in order for that to happen you need to we need to have this eth outperformance versus bitcoin we need eth btc to go back to like 0.04 area um for them to act simultaneously though don't you think um it could yeah it could I just I guess what I'm trying to say is like I think these things alone in isolation aren't probably enough to move the needle but these things once the seeds are sown if we start to see that natural outperformance then this stuff is like really exciting I think because you'll see it will just the narrative of it will change you know remember if you read the FT and you read all the comments on it and it's just like oh another you know Joe Lubin doing another like Crypto Pumped Up or whatever I think like If this is a view as a trade, if this trade works out for Joe Lubin and Tom Lee in the next six months, let's say, then they're going to be called geniuses and everyone's going to want to do it.

42:14So that's kind of like how I'm viewing it really. I actually think it will work. I think it will work. Do you think they're better longer than E? I think that's the real question here. I mean, obviously Tom Lee's, Tom Lee's, this company, don't mind, has gone from trading at before the announcement five, now trading at 135 so the trade is probably over there but sbet is it's trading at 12. yeah it's down from it's high to 80 right or something like that right and it's only trading at like some sort of smaller premium to its holdings it's not like something crazy compared to the others like do you think that these at least a part of your of the long are more interesting than altcoins firstly and then maybe even doing that are more interesting than eath itself i think i would view it like micro strategy it's just a levered version of eath right i don't know if they're behaving like that right now because they are new and you had this like original initial pump then like initial sell-off and it may take time for them to marinate a bit but i would view it as like a lab version of it so is it better long than eath um i actually think sharp link could be sharp link is what 80 80 percent off its highs and up 100 or maybe 150 off where it was prior to the announcement so you could view that as maybe like a better long than eath because it's quite convex um you know if eth goes to let's say 4k from here you would think sharp link is through its all-time highs right which is more than a 2x return more than a wherever it is 75 return so and maybe its downside is capped because um it's not that high off its levels prior to prior to the eth announcement so um that looks interesting i think i'd probably favor that over bit mine but again like I don't I'm just I'm just saying that based on recent price action more than like the actual fundamentals yeah that's the one I was looking at too I was looking at Sharpen going like maybe this is the trade here like maybe this is even better than like if ETH does go to 4k here that's three all time highs right it's like it's at 100 plus you would think yeah so that's like a very convex trade in my opinion yeah and people I guess it got sold down because people thought well because they haven't really announced a more longer term line of capital here it feels as though it's just like the short term deal and then that subscription for everyone to sell their shares like it looked like everyone had sold it was willing to sell even though that wasn't necessarily the case but there is this concept that there's a feeling that all the investors just want to exit and you know those sort of trades where like they fundamentally look sound and you're like why does no one else see the value of this versus the other like I don't think you have to be a genius to realize that this trades at a lower premium to pretty much every single other one of these companies but I feel like there may be there may be a reason behind it you know and like maybe that's because everyone knows that there's like a ton to go there's a ton ton of shares to sell and but maybe a piece of news changes that like maybe they announced a long-term capital line where they're going to raise like a billion two billion and continue to buy eth i think that would be probably the most bullish piece of news that we would hear yeah yeah that's fair um yeah that's the one thing i was looking at this week basically just just is that is it that is interesting is that you've along beneath because i like these and i like you know what they need they need a sharp link on chain for us to trade yeah tokenized sharp link or a tiger tattoo and a can presentation you know yes yes you know you one of those two things and then there's up only if you're listening um let's make it happen me and rsf can help support that uh as as hosts of the event

46:47um all right let's do some questions i think we might be a bit light in questions today because um it's fourth july obviously but um before we get on to that you know quick shout out to arch public um if you guys want to take out the emotions out of trading check out their algorithmic trading platform there's a free tier subscription you guys can access um if you head over to realvision.com forward slash arch again i feel like every week we're saying the same thing where bitcoin hits that all-time high level then drops back down again and is kind of like chopping and this platform will will make you money in a chop because it all it does is it buys lows and sells highs so um i would highly recommend checking it out and i've been using it and making money using it so um i think it's a no-brainer at least from the free tier um okay first question uh from Turbo Goose on the Real Vision website, I still don't understand if I buy one mirror share of OpenAI from Robinhood for, say, 50, then what's happening is that Robinhood are committing to buy a real share for that$50 in the case of an IPO.

47:51So it's an IOU in a completely speculative price. Is that your understanding of how that works?

48:00Well, you don't know how many shares necessarily are going to be at the IPO. So I think actually it corresponds to the percentage ownership of the current share. So I wouldn't necessarily view it as like, okay, you need to guess the share price, if that's what your question is. I do think it will respond to your percentage ownership. Pro rata, that would be the valuation that you get, basically. Yeah, that makes sense to me. Do you think they need to, can they just launch this without, is there any IP considerations to be had here? Or can they just launch it without the IP? Sorry? What do you mean by IP consideration?

48:37As in, like, can you just say, here's OpenAI forwards, and we've done this without the permission of OpenAI? I think they might face a lawsuit. I would be very, very unsurprised if one of these companies says, hey, we don't agree with this, and it needs to be legally challenged. That being said, OpenAI did challenge them, and Robinhood stuck to their guns. So I would like to see them stick to their guns, but it does feel like some companies are not going to be happy with their valuation, right? Some companies are going to come to market on this sort of platform or an investor is going to put their shares on this sort of platform and they're going to be like, hey, this is wildly off what our bankers think.