61: Three Reasons the Stock Market Could Go Down in 2024

0:00This holiday gives a gift that says let's cancel plans and just lounge. MeUndies has dropped their new holiday collection, and it's made for maximum cozy. We're talking soft as snow, ultramodal fabric, festive prints, and loungewear so comfy, your couch might get jealous. Onesies, hoodies, joggers, even delightfully quirky holiday designs. You're welcome. Knock out all your holiday gifting needs with deals up to 60 % off at MeUndies.com slash Spotify. Enter promo code Spotify. That's MeUndies.com slash Spotify code Spotify. Hey, everyone, and welcome back to the Rich Habits Podcast, a top 10 business podcast on Spotify.

0:36My name is Austin Hankwitz, and I'm joined by my co-host, Robert Croak. Robert is a seasoned entrepreneur in his 50s with lifetime revenue of over$300 million under his belt, and I'm an entrepreneur in my late 20s with a background in finance and economics. Since quitting my full-time job in corporate finance a few years ago, I've built a seven-figure media business, and I actively advise some of the most well-known fintech companies around the world. Now, as the show name might suggest, every episode, we talk about rich habits as they relate to business, finance, and mindset. However, we try and bring you two unique perspectives, one from an industry veteran, which is Robert, and the other myself, someone who's still in the process of building wealth and figuring it all out.

1:19So Robert, what are we going to be talking about in today's episode? In this episode of the Rich Habits podcast, we're going to switch it up a little bit. We're going to talk about black swan events and what that means to all of you and how to prepare for them. Now, obviously the term black swan means unforeseen or unpredictable like COVID-19 or 9-11. And unfortunately, a lot of the geopolitical uncertainty we're seeing right now is exactly that. However, there are a few things that we've been able to observe over the last week or so beyond geopolitical uncertainty that are catalyzing volatility in the markets and red in our portfolios.

1:57So in this episode, we're going to share with you three key observations that could shape the rest of 2024. We'll also be sharing with you how you could prepare for it and some ideas as how you could capitalize from it. So Austin, why don't you kick us off with point number one, because this is certainly at the top of everyone's minds right now. But before we jump into that, I just do want to remind everyone that our friends at public.com have recently launched their own podcast called The Rundown. Now, a new rich habit that you can work into your daily routine is listening to The Rundown, public's financial news podcast.

2:30It's only five minutes long and you'll walk away caught up on which stocks are making the biggest moves and the economic stories that matter most for your portfolio. So Rich Habits, we're a weekly show. The Rundown is daily. So if you want to stay up to date on a daily basis on some of these big stories that are happening, be sure to check them out as well. You can check out The Rundown wherever you listen to podcasts. We'll be sure to share a link in the description below. The first point, Robert, I think people need to be aware of one of these key observations for 2024 is the reacceleration of inflation.

3:00Now, as we all know, inflation skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022 because one, the government shut down the economy due to COVID and two, the government printed$7 trillion in stimulus. However, in 2022, Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates at the fastest pace in 40 years. He did this in efforts to crush inflation. This is what caused the stock market to enter a bear market in 2022, right? Because investors do not like high interest rates. Remember, the higher the interest rate, the higher the cost to borrow money. And when you're a corporation who is borrowing tens of millions, hundreds of millions, billions of dollars of debt that these corporations tend to carry, higher interest rates mean higher expense, and that is not going to be good for shareholders.

3:47Now, as we fast forward through 2022 and 2023, unfortunately, in January, February, and in March, right, three months in a row now, inflation has accelerated, which is not a good thing for investors. We've seen energy and shelter be the two underlying components, Robert, that are causing this new resurgence in inflation. And if you track the price of copper like I do, which is one of these leading indicators for where inflation might be headed, you'll see that it is breaking out to the upside, not a good sign for inflation. So as we think about key observances to keep an eye on that might shape the rest of 24, this sort of reacceleration of inflation, Robert, is one of them that I am being laser focused on keeping track of.

4:30Yeah, we definitely have to keep an eye on all of these factors. And that's why this episode is so important. So great breakdown, Austin. And just to give some additional color around this recent acceleration with inflation is that inflation rose 0.3 % in January, 0.4 % in February, and another 0.4 % in March. That's over 1 % across all categories in just a few short months. So if you all aren't tracking this data yourself, you should be. It's called the CPI, which stands for Consumer Price Index. Austin and I are always tracking and reporting back to you the newest information regarding the stock market an economy, which is why we're making this episode.

5:12So you make sure that you're following along as well and understanding these data reports more and more so you know where the economy is heading and can get ahead of it. Everyone should be looking toward the CPI, right? The consumer price index. Is it going up? Is it going down? What's happening, right? Because that is inflation. And as we all know, inflation unfortunately has been the silent killer, as one might say, of the middle class over the last four years, Robert. Everything on average is now 25 % to 30 % more expensive than it was in January of 2020. So man, inflation, it's here, and unfortunately, it hasn't gone anywhere.

5:50But that is, again, one thing people need to observe as it relates to 2024 and what's going to help shape our portfolios. But Robert, walk us now through the second thing that people should be keeping an eye on and making sure is top of mind as it relates to their portfolios in 24. That takes us into point number two, the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates. So speaking of things being out of control, the Federal Reserve is beginning to seem out of control themselves. Just three short months ago, Jerome Paul was alluding the idea of cutting interest rates between six and seven times in 2024.

6:24And that would have brought the federal funds rate down to the 4 % range. And that would great news for the economy, the stock market, and everyday consumers like you and me, and home buyers. Lower interest rates means lower mortgage rates, which is great as well. But with the recent reacceleration of inflation, and I quote, Jerome stated, the recent inflation data has clearly not given us greater confidence to cut interest rates, and instead indicates that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence. We can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed.

6:58So that is not good news for us. That statement shocked the markets over the last week, causing everyone to panic sell, thinking we are going to get one or two rate cuts in 2024. And Austin again laid it out clearly. Lower interest rates are good for corporate profits and good for stock valuations as investors. And we always want those lower interest rates. I remember on Tuesday when Jerome stated that and everyone was freaking out thinking, wait a second, Are we not getting these six or seven rate cuts like we had thought? The CME FedWatch tool was even pricing in as late as I think it was February 1st, Robert, that we were going to see six or seven rate cuts, right?

7:37That's why the stock market traded at all time highs. Because of course, we know this. The stock market, Robert, is forward looking. We always want to be thinking not what's happening today, but what's going to happen into the future and how can we discount that back to where we are in the present and what does that mean for our investments? And so everyone was thinking six or seven rate cuts throughout 24. Let's discount that back to today. That equals all time highs in the stock market. Well, we're not getting those six or seven rate cuts. We'll be lucky to get one or two this year, which is why we're now seeing the stock market come down.

8:10It's going to be a weird one here, but here's my thing, right? In my humble opinion, I think the Federal Reserve will continue their hawkish posture throughout Q2 and Q3. but I'm optimistically thinking that the stock market will not stay bearish throughout that entire time period. I think we're going to have a volatile Q2 as investors weigh their original investment theses against this new reality of rates remaining higher for longer, but I am hopeful that Q3 is going to bring us some relief. So what am I doing? I'm using the next four to eight weeks, all this volatility, if it's red or green or left and right going in circles, this uncertainty, I'm using it as an opportunity to buy quality companies at fair prices.

8:51For me, that's Google, Adobe, Meta Platforms, Amazon, MasterCard, and Costco. I listened to an interview, Robert, with Jeff Bezos the other day, and it really inspired me to want to invest in some of these companies because he said something so profound that I really want to share with our listeners. He said, as an investor, don't look toward the next 10 years and try to predict what's new and what's going to happen. Instead, identify what certainly will not change during that same period of time. He gave an example of people will always want their Amazon orders delivered to them faster and cheaper, and that's never going to change.

9:27So as an investor, however much AI you want to believe is going to be in the future, Costco is going to be a place people go to on a Sunday to get their groceries. And MasterCard, we're not going to stop swiping our MasterCards, Robert. So as an investor right now, I just want to encourage people to be thinking about what's not going to change over the next five or 10 years, right? How can I invest into what I know is going to be certain in that time frame? Yeah. And one of the things that we talk about a lot that we should touch on right here is the fact that we look at these opportunities when there's pullbacks in markets as exactly that, opportunities to buy.

10:02If we love these companies, the NVIDIAs and the meta platforms and the Salesforce and all these companies that we buy and we dollar cost average into, we look at these as sales. We're not looking at it as bad news. We're not getting afraid. We're like, hey, I believe in Micron, MU and AMD, Advanced Micro Devices and Salesforce. And like you said, Google, all of these companies, Amazon, we look at it as, ooh, there's a pullback of 10 or 15%. That's free money for us. And that's what everyone listening needs to think like too. Don't look at it as, oh, I'm losing money. You're not. You should be looking at it as buying more and as an opportunity.

10:40So I wanted to get that out of the way because you really covered it well, but I wanted to put my twist on it because it's just so important for everyone to be able to zoom out and understand these corrections and really how to benefit from that. And Robert, just to add a quick note at the end of that, to your point, right? these opportunities. If someone is like you and I, we're going to be investors until we die, right? We're going to be investing until we die. We want our portfolios to grow and grow and grow. So unless someone is literally in retirement or plans to retire over the next two, three, five years, you should be looking at this volatility as opportunity.

11:16I'm in my 20s. I look at the volatility and I'm like, oh my gosh, I get to buy more at these discounted prices like what Robert said here. So I just want to reiterate, if you plan to invest and grow your money, even into retirement, like this should be an opportunity and this should not be something you get really scared of. Yep. I agree totally. And we just need to keep preaching that message because all the money is made during these uncertain times and these market downturns, you know, and that's just the best way that you need to be thinking about these pullbacks in the market. So just to get into the third observation, and that is geopolitical uncertainty.

11:48The last black swan like event I want us to briefly touch on is all of the unfortunate geopolitical uncertainty happening around the world. Israel has been at war now for several months. Iran just launched missiles last weekend at Israel as well, and Israel responded Friday with more missiles back at them. This is heartbreaking, and we pray for peace all around the globe. But as investors, it's important to understand that war brings uncertainty in the markets. 2022 was a horrible year in the stock market, not only because of the higher interest rates that we spoke of earlier, but also because of the war in Ukraine.

12:24In times of war, energy and gold tend to trend higher in prices. T-bills are certain income and returns, offsetting the mass uncertainty that comes with war and conflict. But above all, we want everyone to know how important it is to stick with the plan. That is key here, is don't have these knee-jerk reactions. You hear us all the time say, when in doubt, zoom out. And for instance, I wanna give a little math here. The S &P 500 returned over 26 % in 2023. And over the last 45 years, the S &P 500 has only had nine down years. So if this year does turn out to be a red year, that's great. It's an opportunity for all of us to buy quality companies at great prices.

13:08I'm right there with you, Robert. I am certainly praying for peace. And it is heartbreaking to see everything happening around this world. But at the end of the day, what I don't want people to do is sell their investments thinking, oh my gosh, the Fed this, inflation that, war that, oh gosh, I got to sell everything. That's not at all what we're saying here, y 'all. What this episode is about, Robert and I are not only people who are trying to invest our own money and stay up to date on everything, but we're also analyzing everything in real time alongside of you. And when we see volatility in the markets and when we see inflation re-accelerate and when we see rate cuts go from six times or seven times to one or two times and everything happening in the when we see these things happen in real time, we want to talk to you about what's going on in our own perspectives there.

13:56Right. So this is us sharing in real time what we have our eyes on as investors of millions of dollars and what we are focused on as investors to make sure that we can not only share with you what we are focused on and doing, but also giving you the tools and resources to learn about those things on your own as well. Because that's the thing. We don't want to just tell you all what's going on and tell you what we're doing. We want to educate you guys so you all can then go out and learn more about it yourself and make your own educated decisions. So Robert, I think you did a wonderful job breaking down this episode, right?

14:27Talking about the reacceleration of inflation, talking about how the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates six or seven times now, maybe just one or two, and then also talking about the just tragic war happening around the world. So as we kind of turn now to our question and answer segment of the show, I just want to encourage people again, think about some of the specific key terms we mentioned here, right? Federal funds rate, Jerome Powell, CPI, and other things like that, that you can then kind of keep in your back pocket, your watch list rather, to be typing in on Google maybe once a month or once a quarter to just make sure that you are up to date on what's happening and what's moving your portfolio every single day, month, and quarter as well.

15:09Yeah. And I want to add one more piece to that. Thank you for that, Austin. We preach every day throughout all of our educational products, active management of your money. This is exactly why times like this today, as you listen to this episode, why you can't have an advisor, you can't have a mentor, and you can't just have a set it and forget it mindset when it comes to your money. Because in times like this, just like it was with COVID and some of the other tragedies we've had in the recent years, you have to be actively understanding what the macro economics and what the conditions are in the markets so you can make adjustments in real time.

15:47That's why podcasts like the Rich Habits Podcast are so, so important for all of you is because we give you that information and our thoughts in real time. So you can make the necessary adjustments because you might have some advisor that's just worried about his golf game and his whiskey collection. And he might not be keeping an eye on all of this like Austin and I and our teams do each and every day. So it's so, so important to understand that. And this, again, is not us telling you you need to take action, right? We're not telling you that you need to sell everything and run for the hills and go buy ammunition and food.

16:19What we are saying is this is a great opportunity to learn more about the things that are moving your portfolio every single week, month, and quarter. And if we can be the people to educate you as to what those things are and how important they are for you, that's awesome. That's what we want to do. What a great episode, Robert. I'm super excited about this one. And I hope that a lot of people listening right now learned about what's going on year to date, why the markets were up so much, why they're down a little bit, what's causing sort of this volatility behind the scenes with inflation, the Fed and geopolitical uncertainty and what they can do to learn more about it.

16:55So I just I'm really excited about this episode. Me too. And before we jump into the Q &A, let's hear a little bit from our sponsor. Austin, to separate yourself and part of your portfolio from the average investor, you should consider diversifying with alternative assets. And our sponsors at Masterworks have the most exclusive contemporary fine art. They've brought securitized investing to the art market. And they've used it to generate over$54 million in art sales and distribute the proceeds to their investors. And those investors didn't need to spend millions. They didn't even need to have special art world knowledge.

17:30It was simple. Art investing is materially different from investing in other markets. But so far, each of Masterworks' 21 exits have delivered a profit. Now, as we all know, past performance is never a guarantee of future returns, but so far, Masterworks investors have realized annual net returns of 14.6%, 16.4%, and 17.6%, among many others. Over 920 ,000 users have signed on, but our listeners can skip the waitlist and get started today by going to masterworks.art forward slash rich habits. Again, that's masterworks.art, A-R-T slash rich habits. Now, as we get into the question and answer segment of the show, Robert, our first question comes from CJ.

18:19CJ says, hey guys, I'm hoping this might make the Q &A segment of the podcast. Well, CJ, congrats. it did. I'm sure there are a good bit of millennials in a similar position. My mom is approaching retirement age and she lives in her home alone in Florida. She's considering moving back to Philadelphia where I live. And if she does, the question is, what's the best way to maximize her home for wealth generation? We definitely don't want to sell it. And I've sold her on the idea of renting it out. But my problem is I'm not sure where to start in the process. Would it even be smart to use a rental management company or should I try to do all this myself.

18:54Any insight from you guys would be awesome. Robert, I only have one rental property and it's right next door to me. So I don't have any managements or companies. It's pretty straightforward in my experience here, but you have more experience when it comes to rental real estate and commercial real estate. So why don't you walk CJ through your perspective on a situation? I look at it this way. If it's just one property, I think you can manage it remotely. And I would at least try that for the first six months to a year and see how it goes. The key for you, like anything now in the real estate market, is using proper tools.

19:27You're going to want to get a couple cameras. You're going to want to get a ring doorbell. You're going to want to use like Rentometer or Inigo, one of the apps that you can use to look for the right tenant and to get your payments through. There's just so many tools out there right now that are great to help you keep an eye on things. You could have these cameras just on the exterior so you can keep an eye on the property, make sure that they're mowing the lawn and doing all those things. But I would start by doing it on your own at first and then look later if you have problems to then hiring a management company.

19:59But I don't see a reason why you can't handle it yourself using the tools that I discussed and just do it all on your own and keep the money to yourself. So, Robert, let's say CJ was really getting started here. He's like, OK, mom's moved out. How should CJ go to one, find tenants? And then two, what's the application process like? Where does he get a contract? In fact, I mean, walk them through the step-by-step process of going from zero to one as it relates to his first rental property. Yeah, you nailed it. Zillow, Redfin, there's so many different ways you can market it. You can put a sign in the yard and then use one of these rentometers or one of these apps to handle the application process, to handle the contracting process.

20:40You might want to bring in, if you know a local lawyer that can do the lease agreement for you, but there's so many templates out there for lease agreements that you can literally just grab a template, put in the necessary information and the clauses you want within this rental property. All of this can be done by you very easily and very inexpensively. And then you're up and running and it's just all about tenant selection. You want to try and have it on auto pay if you can and just make it as simple as possible for you. So it doesn't become a job. That's the problem. So many people do is they'll get into the rental business and have three, four or five rentals.

21:13And then it's a job. And then not always is the cashflow there to constitute to all the work and that's when you might want to look at a management company. But just for this one, I think you'll do just fine. And then last question, Robert, as people think about sort of screening for tenants, what should they keep an eye out for? What should they know as like good versus bad? I mean, especially if it's this guy's first time. You're going to want to look for what's the credit score? What's their criminal record? You want to do a background check, very inexpensive to do. And then also make sure that their income level is at least three times the rental amount you're trying to get because you want to make sure that they can sustainably afford the rent that you're asking because of the fact that so many people live beyond their means and you don't want to have somebody that maybe has seasonal work or someone that's living beyond their means and you don't know if they're qualified financially to take on this house.

22:04CJ, I hope that helped answer your question, man. Our next question comes from, I think it might be Araceli J. She asks, I have$100 ,000 sitting in a high yield savings account I'm not sure what to do with. I could take the whole$100 ,000 and go invest it into the markets, or I can use it as a down payment on a$750 ,000 home. Now, what's cool about this home is I have instant equity because my company is giving me a$60 ,000 discount on my next mortgage. Wow, that's a pretty cool company perk. However, my monthly payment with a 6.5 % interest rate would be over$5 ,000, representing 45 % of my take-home pay.

22:43So should I take this$100 ,000 and invest it? Or should I use it as a way to bring down my monthly payment, representing closer to 30 % of my take-home pay? So Robert, should she take the money and just go invest it in the markets? Should she use it as a larger down payment on a$750 ,000 home? What should she be thinking about right now? Well, this is a whole lot of good and a whole lot of bad wrapped up in a really small question. Let's start here. Why do we need to buy a$750 ,000 home? That seems crazy, and I know it's Colorado Springs and prices are high, but I'm assuming the 60K discount that you're getting towards the mortgage would apply if you got a$600 ,000 home or a$500 ,000 home.

23:24So that's where I'd start. I'd love to know that more so than anything because that would get you down into that safe range of your debt to income ratio. If you could use the 60 ,000 towards a lesser expensive home, that's where I'd start. You definitely, definitely do not wanna be buying a home that represents 45 % of your debt to income ratio, that is just setting you up for lifestyle creep at its worst place because you're never gonna be able to save in the future. I'd love to see you get a$500 ,000 home up to maybe 600, use the 60 ,000 down against the mortgage to keep your mortgage in line with your debt to income ratio.

24:02Keep the$100 ,000, get that invested in the markets and diversified so you're not house broke in the coming years. I love that answer, Robert. I'm right there with you. I mean, she's sitting on$100 ,000, her first 100K, as we like to call it. And you put that to work, you're off to the races. Your net worth is going to explode over the next seven to 10 years because you have this money invested. Assuming you do what Robert says, you can get that$500 ,000,$600 ,000 house, you get the$60 ,000 discount. So let's call it$440 ,000. Well, now we're talking about a monthly mortgage rate that might be closer to$3 ,800 or$4 ,000 a month, which is probably not going to get you to that perfect under 30 % that you want to be at, but it's going to give you a lot more flexibility than where you're at right now.

24:45So really good question, Araceli, Araceli. Again, sorry, I don't know how to pronounce your name, but we hope that this answer had helped. And I want to bring something up that I just looked up while you were breaking that down. The median home price in Colorado Springs right now as of March of 2024 is$549 ,000. So that puts you well within the range we're talking about for a nice home. Colorado Springs is beautiful. And then you can keep within the debt to income ratio that we want you to in that 30 to 32 % and you'll be well on your way to building wealth. What a great answer, Robert. Our last question comes from Myrene S.