Consumer, Tech Stocks Report as Central Banks Meet

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:17I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, April 28th. Five magnificent seven stocks report this week and could set the tone. So could results from big automakers, Qualcomm, and about one-third of S &P 500 names. All this is wrapped around several central bank rate-setting meetings and key U.S. inflation data. The main earnings event involves separate rounds Wednesday and Thursday afternoon when Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Apple report. Focus likely will be on data center spending, return on investment from that spending, iPhone sales, Apple's recent CEO news, and the state of online advertising.

1:03Another thing to check is whether these firms can continue to grow revenue sequentially, which might hint at rising return on investment from AI. Guidance likely means more than actual results, barring major surprises. Any caution about capital expenditures could hurt the sizzling semiconductor sector, which entered the week up nearly 50 % from March lows in what's been a speculative rally. Caution might be the watchword, considering the market's fast recovery and heightened sensitivity to valuations. Heading into this monster earnings week, the PHLX Semiconductor Index was up 18 straight sessions and 50 % from its March lows.

1:45Technically, the market appears overbought based on the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, for chip stocks. While an overbought market can keep climbing, this setup could make chips more vulnerable if there's bad news. The main consideration for chips is spending plans by the Magnificent Seven firms. Any type of leveling off might reinforce worries that chips have overshot. Before the Mega Caps report, today brings a host of key earnings, including Coca-Cola, General Motors, Corning, United Parcel Service, Visa, Seagate, and Starbucks. These names provide a look at both the consumer and tech side of the market, with UPS also a solid barometer of business spending.

2:30At UPS and other transport and automobile firms, it might be interesting to see if any adjustments show up in guidance based on higher fuel prices and weak consumer sentiment. The Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate decision doesn't hold much drama as the market price is in a third straight pause. But what's more intriguing is the press conference afterward from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who's likely being replaced when his term expires May 15th. The Senate Banking Committee is likely to confirm Powell's replacement Kevin Warsh tomorrow, followed by a full Senate debate and vote the week of May 11th, as Congress is out on recess next week.

3:10Powell's term as governor doesn't end until early 2028, meaning he could stay on the Fed if he chooses. Few Fed shares have done so in the past. The Bank of Japan met earlier today with no rate change expected, though analysts expect possible hikes in the not-too-distant future. The European Central Bank follows the Fed on Thursday with a pause factored into the markets. One to two European Central Bank rate hikes could come later this year, analysts told media outlets recently. Whether central banks decide to hike in 2026 might depend on progress ending the war and bringing down crude prices, but peace signs were fleeting early this week.

3:55Hopes for dialogue got a boost early Monday when media reports said Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz in return for an end to fighting with nuclear talks postponed. Crude continued to rise Monday despite this, and so did Treasury yields. The opening, or closing, of the Strait of Hormuz has been the key driver of markets over the last few weeks, and Treasury yields will likely fluctuate given each update and what it may mean for the price of oil, said Colin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. We see plenty of factors that should keep the 10-year Treasury yield in the 4 % to 4.5 % area.

4:35Sticky inflation, fiscal concerns, and rising global bond yields. We see more upside risk than downside risk over the near term. Treasury yields climb Monday with the 10-year up three basis points to 4.34 % amid rising oil and after separate two-year and five-year note auctions. The$69 billion two-year auction saw lukewarm demand, according to Briefing.com, and demand for the$70 billion five-year auction was tepid. A seven-year note auction takes place Wednesday, but this soft start to weekly bidding could trigger concerns about U.S. asset values and possible higher yields. Higher yields haven't held back the recent tech rally, which took its cue from a strong start to earnings season.

5:24Blended earnings growth so far is very solid at 15.1%, above expectations of around 13 % heading into the season, and sectors beyond tech have contributed. That said, tech earnings growth is expected to reach 48 % year-over-year for the first quarter, driving much of the earnings growth. On the other side of the ledger, consumer companies are seen lagging with earnings growth of just 2.4 % seen for consumer discretionary and 3.4 % for consumer staples, according to LSEG. Visa's results and commentary today could give investors another look at what's making consumers cautious. First quarter reporting season is roughly one-third finished and nine of 11 S &P 500 sectors so far are posting Euro-over-year earnings gains.

6:13Materials and financials are right behind technology in terms of earnings growth. Energy and health care round out the bottom. This week also features important data, though much of it is backloaded. Thursday brings the government's first look at first quarter gross domestic product, or GDP, and the Fed's favorite inflation reading, personal consumption expenditures, or PCE prices. Major indexes mostly edged up Monday, though gains cooled off from last week's blistering pace. Volume remained below average, an ongoing theme that raises concerns about conviction behind the rally. There was little progress reported Monday toward ending the Iran conflict, but Iran did offer to reopen the strait in return for an end to the U.S.

7:02blockade. Media reports toward the end of the day said President Trump and his aides discussed the proposal. Crude oil rose 22 percent and stayed above$96 per barrel, but has been less of a headwind to stocks this month. Market breadth remains narrow, with gains concentrated in the same sectors as last week, including communications services and tech. Just four of 11 S &P 500 sectors started the week with gains. Discretionary stocks weakened ahead of key earnings from automakers, Starbucks, and UPS. Though the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell Monday to end an 18-session win streak, it was tough to tell by a quick glance some popular chip names like NVIDIA, Intel, SanDisk, and Micron, all of which made new highs.

7:52SanDisk got a lift Monday when Mellius Research initiated coverage with a buy rating. The memory sector included Seagate and Western Digital comes into view today and Thursday, respectively, with those two firms report. Weakness, likely driven by profit-taking, clipped shares of many other chip stocks, including Arm Holdings, Advanced Microdevices, Broadcom, and ASML. Technically, the chip sector is well above any of its moving averages, and positioning across tech is extremely bullish after unwinding of the hedging so prevalent in March. In other trading Monday, Domino's Pizza cooled almost 9 % after earnings and revenue came in shy of Wall Street's expectations, and the company's U.S.

8:38sales forecast appeared to disappoint. Adobe fell 2.5%, hurt by a downgrade from Mizuho to neutral from Outperform. The analysts cited competitive threats from AI, lack of catalysts, and risk of margin erosion. Snap climbed 8 % after Rothschild upgraded shares to buy from Neutral. Microsoft inched up after announcing an amended agreement with OpenAI, in which OpenAI will be allowed to have more flexibility to operate across the market and not be confined to Microsoft's Azure cloud, though OpenAI will remain Microsoft's primary cloud partner and Microsoft maintains access to OpenAI's growth. Apple fell 1.3 % on worries about smartphone competition after Qualcomm announced it was working with OpenAI to develop smartphone processors.

9:33Qualcomm lost most of its early gains and remains among the worst-performing names in semiconductors this year. Verizon added 1.5 % despite revenue narrowly missing consensus. Earnings per share topped expectations, and the company raised guidance. Another lift came from subscribership, with 55 ,000 net postpaid phone subscribers added in what's traditionally a tough quarter. Analysts had expected subscribership to fall. And transports lost ground Monday as crude oil prices climbed.

10:10The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 62.92 points Monday, or 0.13%, to 49 ,167.79. The S &P 500 Index ticked up 8.83 points, or 0.12%, to 7 ,173.91. and the NASDAQ Composite gained 50.50 points, or 0.20%, to 24 ,887.10. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash marketupdate or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

11:07For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.