Data Outage a Headwind, with AMD Results Due Later

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, February 3rd. In a rerun few likely wanted to watch, Washington pulled the plug on this week's critical jobs data due to a government shutdown. That means no December job openings and labor turnover survey or jolts report today, and no non-farm payrolls report Friday. Barron's reported the delay at midday Monday, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While there's still a chance Congress could get the lights turned back on as quickly as this afternoon, the lift got heavier this week as House Democrats made clear they wouldn't support passing a government funding package through the fast-track process, forcing House Speaker Mike Johnson to push the bill through under the regular rule process that would require almost every Republican to be present and vote yes, according to Capitol Hill publication The Hill.

1:15Republicans have a razor-thin margin in the House, so passage isn't assured if Democrats remain united. The House is expected to pass both the massive five-bill package and the Department of Homeland Security funding extension, though there's no guarantee it will wrap up today. The Bureau of Labor Statistics website late Monday said the agency is closed during the shutdown and didn't list substitute dates for the data. As long as the shutdown gets quickly resolved and data gets pushed back just a few days, it likely won't have much impact on the market. But if negotiations hit a roadblock and the closure lasts another week or more, it could start affecting collection of February jobs data, a more significant imposition.

2:03Without jolts, a little of the excitement comes off today's trading. Instead, investors will have to focus on earnings from Palantir, released late Monday, and results from advanced microdevices due after today's close. Though four of the Magnificent Seven reported last week, the current week is among the busiest of earnings season, with about 20 % of S &P 500 companies reporting. Alphabet comes tomorrow afternoon and Amazon follows Thursday afternoon. Eli Lilly is another major firm to watch first thing Wednesday, with competing weight loss firms also on this week's calendar. Palantir topped Wall Street's consensus and shares topped 7 % initially in post-market trading.

2:46Palantir issued better-than-expected guidance and reported strong results in its AI-driven defense business. Overall, revenue jumped 70 % year-over-year. Disney kicked off the week with earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations. Earnings per share of$1.63 topped consensus of$1.57, and revenue rose 5.2 % year-over-year to$25.98 billion. Guidance looked solid, and the company's experience as business recorded$10 billion in quarterly revenue. The stock initially inched up, then tanked 7 % by late Monday, apparently hurt by concerns over its outlook, which Bloomberg labeled tepid. So far, fourth quarter 2025, earnings growth year over year has been relatively firm at 11.9%, according to FactSet, but that's slightly below levels seen earlier in 2025.

3:41At the same time, market participants appear to be rewarding companies less for beating earnings expectations, but also punishing them less for missing consensus. The two tech companies that saw their shares hardest hit in recent weeks were Microsoft and Intel, but in both their cases, it was the forward outlook rather than quarterly results that sent their ships into the rocks. As Advanced Microdevices reports after the close today, investors will watch to see if the AI chip firm can meet its forecasts for strong revenue growth of more than 20%. Results and the market reaction could likely shape how the chip sector and perhaps most of the tech universe performs on Wednesday.

4:24Shares of AMD recently came within a whisker of last October's peak before falling off the pace. The company has stayed upbeat about AI growth and last November predicted 35 % average revenue gains the next three to five years. Other important earnings this morning include a word from pharmaceutical giants Merck and Pfizer, as well as PepsiCo. One thing to listen for in Merck's call is any word on acquisitions, as Bloomberg reported last month the company wants to strike more deals as it faces patent losses. data wise monday the january ism manufacturing index showed a big improvement said lizanne saunders chief investment strategist at the schwab center for financial research the headline rose to 52.6 from the previous 47.9 clawing back above the 50 level that signals expansion new orders and employment also improved significantly with the highest level for new orders since February of 2022.

5:29This might reinforce hopes that data center demand is ramping up manufacturing. One report isn't a trend, however, and manufacturing has slumped for months. Many businesses surveyed by the ISM mentioned tariff headwinds. The U.S. dollar index continued to improve, partly on hopes for a quick end to the government shutdown and on dwindling Fed independence fears after the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chairman. The dollar index near current levels of 97 isn't historically low, but may seem to be compared with recent peaks above 110. Prior to COVID, it was rare to see the dollar index above 100, and it's still in the upper regions of its long-term band.

6:17Another dollar consideration is the potential positive impact it can have on earnings for major U.S. multinational firms, provided it stays at these levels over a longer term. A weaker dollar makes U.S. products cheaper for international customers and can sometimes be a boon for U.S. equity markets. In such volatile times, it's helpful to know what the major hedge funds are doing. Last week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, silver and gold saw net selling along with the small-cap Russell 2000 index, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq featured some buying. Despite the shutdown's impact on data, volatility eased Monday, and major indexes climbed as gold and silver prices escaped the heavy selling that crippled them Friday.

7:06Crypto was another story as Bitcoin forged 10-month lows amid a retreat in risk sentiment. Small caps reversed last week's sharp losses, but the Treasury market put up a warning flag for rate-sensitive shares as yields jumped to nearly 4.28 percent after the unexpectedly robust ISM data. Stocks generally climbed thanks to the ISM news and the announcement of a new U.S. trade agreement with India that lowered U.S. tariffs on imports from the country to 18 % from 25%. Still, the S &P 500 index didn't make a concerted effort Monday to scramble back above the psychological 7 ,000 mark, which it reached intraday last week for the first time.

7:50This is concerning, Barron's noted, because last week's mega-cap earnings weren't enough to move the needle, and catalysts grow a little less obvious looking ahead. That said, the index has been stuck in a range for weeks, even as earnings outpace expectations, slightly easing valuations. If this continues, the price-to-earnings ratio might come down to levels that look more appetizing to investors, and a lot of cash still appears to be on the table. Eight of 11 S &P sectors moved higher Monday, the exceptions being defensive regions like real estate and utilities. Energy was also a laggard thanks to a big dip in crude oil predicated on hopes for easing U.S.

8:34tensions with Iran. An unusual mix of sectors led the way, with little contribution from Infotech. Consumer staples topped the list amid support from a 4 % gain for Walmart and a 3 % rise for Costco. Caterpillar's 4.5 % gain sparked a rally in the industrial sector following its healthy earnings last week. Walmart advanced following the start of John Ferner taking the helm as CEO. In individual trading Monday, NVIDIA plunged nearly 3 % after media reports said that its$100 billion deal with OpenAI may be in question. The agreement, announced last fall, would have the companies build at least 10 gigawatts of computing power for OpenAI, CNBC reported.

9:21NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang over the weekend denied reports he was unhappy with OpenAI. Apple jumped 4 % Monday after Reuters reported that India will allow foreign companies to fund equipment purchases without tax risk. And Sanddisk continued its meteoric ascent, rising another 15 % Monday, part of the rally in memory chip stocks and following strong earnings last week.

9:51The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 515.19 points Monday, or 1.05%, to 49 ,407.66. The S &P 500 Index advanced 37.41 points, or 0.54%, to 6 ,976.44. And the Nasdaq Composite added 130.29 points, or 0.56%, to 23 ,592.10. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

10:51For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.