Job Openings, Nike Earnings Up Next in Short Week

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:17I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, March 31st. The last day of March kicks off this week's data march toward Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Monthly job openings due soon after today's open provide the opening salvo of a week packed with labor readings, though Friday's key number coincides with the market holiday. The data parade begins after another disappointing session yesterday in which technology stocks, especially semiconductors, snuffed out an early rally attempt. Major indexes recorded new lows for the year. Lack of any proven progress toward de-escalation in Iran, accompanied by new threats by both sides against infrastructure, sent U.S.

1:04crude prices 5 % higher Monday and kept risk sentiment subdued. Follow-through buying never showed up in any significant way, and that's a concern about any rally so long as the current situation persists. Job openings data for February due at 10 a.m. Eastern time reflect a time before the war began and oil prices jumped, so it might not be that constructive. Still, the fresh reading provides a baseline for the climate as the conflict started, and analysts expect headline openings just below 6.9 million, roughly even with the January number and a bit below last year's average of 7.1 million, which in turn was down from 2024.

1:47Another aspect of the report to watch is its quits reading, which provides a sense of how confident people were to leave their jobs and look for new ones. Quits were 3.1 million in January, and analysts expect little change. Consumer confidence for March from the conference board does reflect the conflict, and analysts expect it to drop to a headline of 88 from an already weak 91.2 in February. The March non-farm payrolls report Friday is expected to show a rebound to growth of around 50 ,000 from February's 92 ,000 plunge. Tomorrow brings the ADP employment report for March on private sector jobs, followed Thursday by Challenger layoffs data.

2:30One concern that could keep trading cautious this week is the prospect of another dramatic decline in payrolls. Though jobs growth has been soft for nearly a year, two negative readings in a row might be a blow that tips market participants into recession worries, particularly considering the price of oil.

2:52For now, the market appears to be in a tug-of-war between investors who don't want to miss a potential rally like the one that lifted stocks last spring following the tariff scare and traders who appear oriented towards selling on any upward move back towards 6 ,500 in the S &P 500 index. Wall Street may be caught in a quagmire until more news emerges. It's also important to remember that unlike tariffs, wars can't necessarily turn on a dime. Recent social media posts from the White House appear to be getting less credence from market participants judging by the lackluster response Monday. With stocks heading down again, longer-term support near 6 ,175 for the S &P 500 index becomes a level to watch.

3:40Below that is psychological support at 6 ,000, but even a drop Up to 5 ,900 can't be ruled out. Monday's failure to eclipse Friday's high of 6 ,453 on an early rally effort appeared to disappoint participants, and stocks spent most of the session ratcheting back. On the upside, 6 ,500 is a level the market likely needs to surpass to get some confidence back. Crude oil continues to set the pace, though mixed signals on closure of the straight emerged Monday. Thousands of U.S. troops are in the region, raising fears of a ground attack that could extend closure of the strait and cause more damage to the region's economic infrastructure.

4:26Aluminum prices spiked early Monday on infrastructure damage in the Middle East, sending shares of Alcoa to double-digit gains. Treasuries rose Monday, sending yields lower. At first, this appeared linked to ideas that progress might be on the way in war negotiations. However, with no proof of that, it's possible Treasuries began to build back some long-term recession risk. As of late Monday, odds of rates ending the year below the current target range of 3.5 % to 3.75 % were around 19%, compared with zero odds of a cut late last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Chances of at least one hike this year are down to less than 4%.

5:10That's a sharp reversal, too, considering the market began building in one or possibly more 2026 rate hikes last week amid inflation concerns. It's just one day, and futures trading has been volatile lately, but it appears there's belief that investors got too eager to price out possible rate cuts. Monday's remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell drew some attention. The Fed chair speaking at Harvard said longer-term inflation expectations still appear reined in and that it's too soon to know how big an impact the oil price shock will have on the economy, Bloomberg reported. This week's earnings highlight comes after the close today when Nike reports.

5:53The company's earnings could offer a chance for investors to hear how the war is affecting shipping logistics for a company with its feet in so many markets. Higher oil prices could pose a threat to companies reliant on international sales. The report could also offer insight into trade relations between the U.S. and China after so much tariff-related damage over the last year. A tenuous trading truce seems at risk now after China said last week it's opening investigations into U.S. trade practices that it claims have slowed Chinese goods shipments to the U.S. If China decides on new restrictions aimed at U.S.

6:33products, Nike could be one of the companies affected with major markets in China. Major Wall Street indexes mostly flopped again Monday when an early yield-fueled rally lost steam amid growing risk-off sentiment. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is just 30 stocks, managed to buck the lower trend, and the Nasdaq Composite fell another 0.73%. The rise in Treasury prices might have reflected investors trying to escape risk, so did the sell-off in growth areas like tech and industrials. The dollar, another area sometime popular with risk-averse participants, achieved a new high for the year.

7:16The SIBO Volatility Index, or VIX, gave investors an early hint that the rally lacked staying power. It remained above 30 for the most part, even as stocks rallied the first few hours of the session Monday. If VIX remains high on a stock market rally, it typically means one side or the other has to give. Though index charts looked ugly Monday, 7 of 11 S &P sectors ended flat to higher, with financials leading the way thanks possibly to a drop in short-term yields. The relentless climb there last week had narrowed the yield curve, threatening bank industry profits. Otherwise, leading sectors were traditionally cautious ones like utilities, staples and real estate, all of which might have also benefited from falling yields.

8:04Industrials finished with sharp losses, possibly on inflation worries related to the war. In Individual Trading Monday, CrowdStrike climbed 2.8 % after shares got an upgrade from Wolf Research to outperform from PeerPerform. The firm says Anthropik's coming model release could drive more vendor consolidation and tailwinds for CrowdStrike. Cybersecurity rival Palo Alto Networks also rose, lifted also by news that its CEO bought shares late Friday, Briefing.com reported. Chip stocks, including Micron, Intel, ASML, and Western Digital, were among the day's worst performers. The overall tech sector fell almost 2%.

8:50Memory stocks continue to suffer amid fears of AI competition potentially hurting prices for their primary products. Micron fell almost 10 % Monday and is down almost one-third from its post-earnings high recorded just eight sessions ago. Earnings were far better than analysts had expected, and the company's guidance was strong by most measures. Software stocks found some buyers one day after being sold off most of the year. Service now climbed 5.5 percent, Salesforce rose 3 percent, and Adobe rose 2.7 percent. Cisco fell more than 15 % after the food service giant announced it would buy privately held Jetro Restaurant Depot in a$29 billion deal.

9:37And Avis fell 8.6 % after entering into an equity distribution agreement to offer more shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 49.50 points Monday, or 0.11%, to 45 ,216.14. The S &P 500 index slipped 25.13 points, or 0.39%, to 6 ,343.72. And the NASDAQ composite dropped 153.71 points or 0.73 % to 20 ,794.64. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show.

10:37Join us for another update tomorrow.

10:45For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.