Jobs Data Ahead as Qualcomm, Arm Results Mulled

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:17I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, November 6th. Fresh jobs data loomed today after Wednesday's rebound. Investors await more updates on the month-long government shutdown and are still buzzing about yesterday's tariff reception from the Supreme Court. Pre-market hours bring the October Challenger job cuts report. Analysts expect to rise to 73 ,000 after highly publicized layoffs by Amazon, United Parcel Service, IBM and Target. September's total was 54 ,000. Data continue with the University of Michigan preliminary November consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

0:58Eastern Time Friday. Consensus is for 54.0 for the headline reading, up slightly from 53.6 in October, but still near historic lows. Investors got some labor data yesterday, as private sector job growth last month totaled 42 ,000, the ADP employment report said. That topped Briefing.com's consensus of 26 ,000 and a 29 ,000 drop in September. It was the first time since July that private employers added jobs, ADP said. ADP doesn't typically correlate with official government data, which had been due tomorrow, but likely won't be released due to the shutdown. As of this recording, there was no sign of any end to the D.C.

1:42standoff, and Washington news outlet Politico reported Wednesday that the election gains by Democrats this week might prolong the battle. The Senate is scheduled to be in recess and out of Washington next week, said Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legal and Regulatory Affairs at Schwab. If that recess gets canceled or delayed, it's a sure sign a deal is imminent. Yields in the dollar rose after the ADP report, with Treasury yields leading the charge Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury note yield climbed a sharp 7 basis points to 4.16 percent, the highest in more than a month and up about 20 basis points from recent lows.

2:23The yield rally coincided with a slight backtrack in chances for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. odds are now 63%, down from close to 70 % earlier this week, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. This reflects the jobs datum and possibly yesterday's first day of arguments at the Supreme Court on President Trump's tariffs. Several justices appeared skeptical of the administration's arguments and had investors speculating the tariffs could be overturned. While the court's decision is weeks or months away, the Fed has cited tariff-related inflation this year. Removing tariffs might ease some of the associated inflation, but also could give the economy a boost.

3:06This conjecture likely explains why yields rose yesterday, and hopes for a break from tariffs might also explain the strength in consumer stocks like automakers, airlines, clothing companies, and semiconductors. Still, investors might want to be cautious trying to predict the course of tariffs and their impact on the economy. Even if the court rules against the administration, it has other tools available to impose tariffs, Townsend said. And the sector-specific tariffs on things like steel, aluminum, copper, cars, pharmaceuticals, furniture, and other products, those aren't part of this case.

3:44They went through a specific process that is not being challenged, so they will stay in place no matter what the court decides. The court's decision has no timetable, but some court watchers have said a decision could come as early as December.

4:03DoorDash, Qualcomm, and Arm Holdings all reported after yesterday's close, giving investors a fresh look at tech companies in the cloud and chip sectors. Investors appeared to lose their appetites when they saw results from DoorDash, sending shares initially down more than 16 % in post-market trading, despite revenues surpassing analyst estimates. Arm, a semiconductor design company, initially jumped nearly 4 % as earnings exceeded consensus and the company issued better-than-expected guidance. Qualcomm also topped expectations, but shares initially fell 2.5%. Otherwise, earnings season is winding down with around 70 % of S &P companies reporting.

4:47The next big lift is retail earnings, which begin the week after next. That said, there are some Keystone reports next week, including Applied Materials, Cisco, CoreWeave, and Walt Disney. Major indexes rebounded Wednesday from Tuesday's AI-related sell-off, but finished slightly off their midday highs. The Supreme Court action gave the markets a lift, while semiconductors climbed 3 % as a sector and erased much of the previous day's losses. Looking across the market, small caps led the way Wednesday with a 1.6 % gain for the Russell 2000 index, which coincided ironically with a sharp jump in Treasury yields.

5:29There may have been a technical element as the Russell 2000 tested and bounced off its 50-day moving average. Small-cap stocks also tend to be the most closely associated with domestic economic growth and may have gotten support from hopes of an economic boost if there's a pullback in tariffs. Nine of 12 S &P 500 sectors rose Wednesday, led by communication services and consumer discretionary. Infotech was one of the three sectors to lose ground, despite strength across much of the semiconductor group. NVIDIA fell 1.7 percent, while Microsoft and Palantir also lost ground, with NVIDIA taking a tumble after Reuters reported that China would ban firms taking state funding from using foreign AI chips.

6:16Checking individual stock performance Wednesday, advanced microdevices climbed out of an early hole and ended up gaining 3 percent. Guidance topped Wall Street's estimates, but investors appeared to want more than the$9.6 billion revenue AMD forecast for the current quarter. Several analysts raised their price targets after AMD reported. Electric carmaker Rivian saw shares soar 23 % Wednesday after beating Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations and reporting a gross profit when analysts had expected a loss. Its joint venture with Volkswagen helped financials last quarter. Pinterest plunged 23 % Wednesday.

6:57The company topped analysts' expectations for global monthly active user growth, but missed the average estimate on earnings per share. Guidance for the current quarter also came in slightly below the average estimate. Supermicrocomputer fell 11 % Wednesday as quarterly revenue fell short of consensus, and earnings per share missed the average estimate. The company also guided for second quarter earnings per share below consensus. And McDonald's added 2 % after reporting quarterly revenue in line with analysts' expectations, up 3 % year-over-year. Earnings per share came in slightly below consensus, possibly on increased spending, Yahoo Finance noted.

7:38Same-store sales or sales at locations open at least a year rose 3.6%, a bit better than Wall Street's 3.5 % forecast.

7:50The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 225.76 points Wednesday, or 0.48%, to 47 ,311.00. The S &P 500 Index climbed 24.74 points, or 0.37%, to 6 ,796.29. and the NASDAQ Composite gained 151.16 points or 0.65 % to 23 ,499.80. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash marketupdate or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

8:49For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.